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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Iraq and a Hard Place By Antonio C. Abaya Written Feb. 16, 2005 For the Philippines Free Press February 26 issue Now that the results of the January 30 elections in Iraq for its National Assembly have been made public, the immediate future of that war-torn country may become more apparent. That the elections took place at all, despite daily bombings and assassinations and calls for a boycott in the predominantly Sunni areas in Central Iraq, may be justifiably considered a victory of sorts for George W. Bush and his neo-conservative war party in Washington. Having been told by its own weapons inspectors, after months of diligent search, that they have found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and having failed to establish a credible connection between Saddam Hussein and the Al-Qaida of Osama bin Laden � the two reasons that had been originally used to justify the invasion in the first place � Bush and the neocons clung to the January 30 elections as the fig-leaf of legitimacy that would cover the embarrassing nakedness of their misadventure. The march of freedom, and all that cornball. To the extent that their own sectarian and ethnic interests coincided with that of the occupying power, the Kurds and the Shia Muslims eagerly took part in the elections, the Kurds (who make up 20% of the Iraqi population) to advance their own agenda of greater autonomy for their homeland, the Shias (who make up 60%) to assert their prominence and power as the largest community in Iraq, after decades of being dominated and persecuted by the Sunnis (who make up only 20%). Enlightened and coincidental self-interests, and not necessarily a sudden infatuation with the occupying power and its presumptive �march of freedom,� compelled 59% of registered voters to take part in the elections. The implication is that if and when those narrow self-interests come in conflict with those of the Americans, there will be no question as to where their loyalties will lie. The main Shia grouping, the United Iraqi Alliance, won 48.1% of the votes, which gave them 140 of the 275 seats in the national assembly; the Kurdish coalition won 25.7% of the votes and 70 seats; the secular Shia party, headed by the current prime minister, Ayad Allawi, of the American-appointed interim government, won only 13.8% of the votes and 40 seats. The previously dominant Sunnis called for a boycott of the elections, and they got it. In Anbar province, site of the battered cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, only 2% of registered voters went to the polls. The Iraqis are a proud people, heirs to ancient Mesopotamian civilizations that go back at least 4,000 years. Their ancestors were among the first in the world to develop art and aesthetics, agriculture, engineering, banking, astronomy, codified laws, urban planning, poetry and a written language, when George W�s Texas was still part of another planet or was existing in total obscurity under the sea. It is inconceivable that Iraqis are suffering from a Hello Joe Syndrome that compels them to feel indebted to any occupying power. That the party of the American-appointed Alawi received only 13.8% of the votes (even less if the Sunnis had taken part) suggests that few Iraqis feel they have been liberated by anyone from anything, contrary to the fantasies of Defense Undersecretary Paul Wolfowitz, chief architect of the Iraq invasion, that the Americans would be welcomed as liberators. This frame of mind is likely to assert itself when the time comes to discuss crucial issues such as when the Americans must leave Iraq, who will control Iraq�s oil, and how the new Shia-dominated government will interact with the Shia ayatollahs of Iran. Common sense, domestic public opinion,, as well as painful memories of Vietnam should convince the Americans that their best move would be to declare that they have won, and leave Iraq ASAP, as they had done in 1972 as the last packed Huey helicopter lifted off from the roof deck of the US Embassy in Saigon, ahead of the advancing North Vietnamese tanks. But the neocons, who have hijacked the Pentagon since January 2001, are not motivated by common sense, are impervious to public opinion, and were, almost to a man, draft dodgers during the Vietnam War. (The neocons include Dick Cheney, who became Bush�s vp; Donald Rumsfeld, who became his secretary of defense; Wolfowitz, who became Rumsfeld�s deputy; Richard Perle, who became chair of the Defense Policy Board; Douglas Feithe, who became the Middle East expert in the National Security Council; and Jeb Bush, George�s younger brother, who became Florida governor.) They respond only to a mystical Wagnerian vision that could be mistaken for a poor copy of the Third Reich. In their statement titled �Rebuilding America�s Defenses,� issued in September 2000, one year BEFORE 9/11, the neocon cabal, under the rubric of the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), called for the development of biological weapons �that can target specific genotypes.� Since most of the intellectuals in the PNAC are Jewish, they must have another genotype in mind that they want to target. But the PNAC�s more immediate goal, as stated in that document, is for the US to �establish full military control of the Middle East, whether or not Saddam Hussein remains in power.� This would seem to suggest that the Americans will not leave Iraq anytime soon. Perhaps a reduction in troop strength, to assuage domestic public opinion. But a total withdrawal, as in Vietnam, is unlikely: it would be an admission of failure on the part of the neocons. Besides, neighboring Iran is fast developing into the next villain country. National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice has protested that there are no plans �at this point� to invade Iran., but she has semantically left the door open to something that may happen or be made to happen beyond �this point.� The investigative reporter Seymour Hersch has claimed that American agents have been entering Iran from Pakistan to identify nuclear targets for possible air strikes. And Vice-President Dick Cheney may have unwittingly given away a likely scenario that would be acceptable to American public opinion: �the Israelis may decide to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran,� or words to that effect. Naturally, Iran will strike back against Israel. This would then give the US the excuse to enter the conflict �to save Israel�, which is always a popular gut issue in American domestic politics. (See my articles �War for Oil and Israel,� Jan. 30, 2003; and �Uncle Dick and the PNAC,� Sept. 07, 2004.) This scenario would also go well with the Christian fundamentalists, who make up the biggest single block of political support for the born-again George W. Bush. The fundamentalists believe that the state of Israel is a creation of God and that in the coming Biblically-foretold Armageddon, the Final Battle between Good and Evil, most of the Jews in Israel would be wiped out, except for 144,000 who would survive and convert to Christianity, which would then be the signal for the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. (See my article �Understanding Bush,� Oct. 15, 2003). ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Iraq and a Hard Place� Dear Mr. Abaya: What you wrote is almost exactly what's on my mind. --re: Iraq and a hard place Tony Anciano, [email protected] February 27, 2005 BTW, How did my email address got included into your mailing list? MY REPLY. In some instances, readers send in the email addresses of their friends to include in our email list. In other instances, we include the email addresses in the CC box of emails sent to us. In still other instances, we pick up email addresses from newspapers and membership lists, etc. It is not possible to pinpoint exactly how your email address got included in our list. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony - Your analysis is 100% accurate and realistic. It supports the conclusion that US policy in the Near East is under strong Israeli control, just as US policy on Cuba is controlled by a small faction of the population of the people in Miami. Congratulations again... Ken Wright, [email protected] February 28, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr. Abaya, I won't and can't comment on this article on the record. Would it be useful for you to know my view on this article "off the record"? I liked your historic references to the people who first discovered beer when water seeped into their grain vats.... . As usual, I enjoy reading your articles. J. Larry Tilby, [email protected] March 02, 2005 MY REPLY. Let�s hear your �off-the-record� comment then, Larry. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, It has been a long time since I read your articles not until I was told by my brother you're now writing for the Manila Standard. Thanks again for making my Thursdays better. I do wish you'll rethink your decision not to publish your best articles in a book. I think that that would be a missed opportunity. Best regards and more power to you! VITTI CORPUZ VALENZUELA, [email protected] Head of Business Development Social Development Specialist WOODFIELDS Consultants Inc. 3rd Floor 153 Kamias Extension Kamias Road, Quezon City, March 04, 2005 MY REPLY. My �book� is being published every week, in this website. Unlike a normal book, my electronic book is accessible FOR FREE to anyone anywhere in the world who has a computer, is updated every week, is organized by title and date as well as by category or subject matter, and allows me to interact with my readers. Thank you for your interest, just the same. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww VERY NICE AND IMFORMATIVE ARTICLES, MR ABAYA! I worked in Iraq for two years, way back in 1985 to 87, that was those years that Iraq have war with neighboring country, Iran.We worked in a military weapons manufacturing plant in Taji Industrial Complex, approx. 60 kilometers from nation's capital Baghdad thru Mosul.. The 3 plants were composed of Foundry for moulding and casting missiles housings and some conventional weapons like rockets and mortars and were techinically supported by European countries like Switzerland, Sweden and West Germany.One of the other plant, Machining Plant, where the castings were machined and finally asembled and lastly, were the Steel structure plant, where the military structural needs like towers and in plant fabricated military boats made of fiberglass and hardened styroform were made. Iraqis are hungry democratic people were they are very proud with the Filipino during the time that we won the Peoples Power Revolution in 1986, though the news at tha about the our Peoples Power ( as Saddamn worried that it is possible it could happened to Iraq too), some of the hide and seeks activist of iraq was able to spread the news. Iraq is an open religious country ( approximately 10% of Iraqis are Christian) were we used to have a Christian community mass on Sunday, most particular and prominent was the Filipino community.The problem was while we were government emplyees, only 50% of our monthly salary were being remitted to our country besides it took 3 months before our remitted money reached to our families, their government was a dollar hungry nation spending approximately 100 billions of dollars for the war with Iran. Now that Iraqis peoples feels their liberation from Saddam's animosities, they still have a long way to get the real mening of democracy if they would not be united as one nation, disregarding their religious conflict and beliefs. Thanks for your nice articles, Mr. Abaya, more power! Antonio Dalagan, [email protected] McLean, Virginia, March 04, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww |
| Mr Abaya, Loved the title. Iraq and a Hard Place! Our president is not the one in that position, though. He just got re-elected and is in a strong and secure position. The individual US soldier is in Iraq and a hard place. The soldiers ain't all who is in a Rock an a hard place................. Imagine, sitting in the desert once again, digging sand out of your pants, hot or cold (it can get cold there too) as hell, and wondering why the fuck we did not win this war a decade ago when the whole world was poised to do it. George SR. stopped Gen Swartzkoft (one of my heroes) from finishing the job. It really irritates me when politicians don't look at the big picture, don't look at history, and make the same mistakes over and over again. We made the same mistake that the Allies made at the conclusion of World War I. Then, we stopped short of Berlin. This gave Adolph Hitler ammunition to fool the German People that they had never really been defeated in WWI, just sold out. A convincing argument was "did you see any Americans in Berlin?". When we did not invade Baghdad during the first Gulf War (with the whole world with us), it was a huge blunder by a man I voted for. I was a lot younger then, had just made Sergeant in the US Army, and said to my friends "we are going to be washing sand out of our underwear again in a decade". Look where so many of those soldiers are now. I am a conservative. I am a Registered Republican (Same as my President). I did not vote in our last election. Sometimes, you have to chose the lesser of 2 evils. In our last election I just could not figure that out, so I refrained. Iraq once had WMD. Ask the Kurds. I am irritated that we did not go in and help those poor people after or even before that gas attack. Why not then, in support of people who would have no problem sitting in a fox hole next to me and fighting to overthrow a tyrant? That is my standard of when to help a foreign country. During WWII, Filipinos fought together with Americans against the Japanese. During the Korean war and to this day, Koreans sit in foxholes with American and UN soldiers to defend and fight against North Koreans. I think we should have been in Vietnam. Really. That war was just mismanaged by the Sec Defense and the President. How many Iraqis helped conquer Saddam? I think we should have gone into Yugoslavia, a few less rapes and mass graves before we did. I question the timing on why we went to Iraq. What was the purpose at that point? After so much had happened. The defiance agianst the limp UN. Do Iraqis have the "hey Joe" thing? I walk around Cebu sometimes and hear that. "Hey Joe!" I wonder who in the hell is Joe? I don't think they (Iraqis) do. Even the ones that appreciate that we got rid of Saddam want us the hell out, from what I have heard, but not experienced. Why don't we leave? We can't. Not honorably. I didn't support us going in, and now, as an American soldier, I will never support us leaving until the mess that was made is cleaned up. The elections were a start, but towards what, I don't know. I think that the way towards a democratic republic is painful. Americans had a real hard time for at least a century. People fought, starved, and died. The majority of Americans lived in poverty. Our country evolved and became strong, probably through Natural Selection. I don't know if we can really teach this to another country. The average person, by necessity, learned from earlier generations (even as the government made blunders). How can you teach that? Can you really go into a country, conquer it, and say "now forget everything you know about how life works, Forget about the fact a few words are different in the the holy book that is in your house from in your neighbor's holy book, forget Sunnis once gassed Kurds and kept Shiite (I remember when they were the enemy during the Iran Hostage thing) majority from getting their due. Like I said earlier, I am an American Soldier. I am in a Rock and a hard place on this issue. Bubba Villanueva, email address withheld on request Germany, March 08, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, Pride goeth before a fall they say. I also see little in the way of an "honourable" exit from Iraq. Of course that is only if the Neocons want the US out of Iraq. I would say their agenda has the military presence growing in preparation for sorting out Iran on one side and Syria on the other, then brushing Jordan aside to keep the Saudi's inline, the Gulf States content they still have a big cousin when their oil runs out and Egypt keeps toeing the party line. The crescent of the middle east from the Med to Pakistan will be under US influence if not outright control. Next stop, the rich Caucasus oil fields in Armenia, Kazahkstan and other former Soviet Union republics. (Unless all of this brought about the second coming then bugger Earth, we're off to heaven!) Look ahead a decade or three when India will be a mighty(tier) nation in population and also capability. They already have Nuclear WMD, space technology and growing IT capability (call centers etc). North of them is the world's biggest market (for the moment, India will overtake them in numbers), China. Right in the middle of all of this is the largest concentration of US troops, Pax Americana controlling the oil that lubricates the wheels of commerce and industry. Forget North Korea, when the time is right they will be taken care of to keep the South Korean industrial machine from being lost to the US cause. Back in the old world, ageing Europeans will absorb the economic migrants from these countries and get them to handle the menial jobs while they worry how they will fund their pensions, then spend them. More will move to places like the Philippines for retirement but not actually here. They will go to countries that encourage foreign retirement investment, countries that have a strong enough sense of national identity they aren't intimidated and scared by the thought of letting foreigners own parts of it, after all, they can't take the land back to Europe or the US with them, can they? All along, life will go on and it will be an interesting century, as was the last. Mind you, there may be a change in four years, Bush gets out and someone who doesn't claim to talk to a supernatural power might get his finger on the button. Saying to hell with pride, lets get our troops out of there, let the world squabble and fight but if they try and stop our commerce we'll wipe them out. Then who will be the new world power? Who will step in to the void? Better the devil you know, perhaps? Cheers, Perry Perry Gamsby, [email protected] Cebu, March 08, 2005 PS Tony, I love your columns and often post them on at Streetwise Philippines Yahoo Group. I also share your ideas of our need to turn to manufacturing etc. PG. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |