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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Hope By Antonio C. Abaya Written Jan. 25, 2005 For the Manila Standard, January 27 issue By most economic and social indicators, things are about as good as they will ever be in this country, with its time-honored tradition of muddling along. GDP is up by 6.2%, exports are up by 19.5%, tourist arrivals are up by 27%, the stock market is booming, the peso is getting stronger, there are supposedly less people experiencing hunger now than there were three months ago, there are said to be more people optimistic now about their future than there were one year ago, etc. So why is there still wailing and gnashing of teeth? Is it just mere political bad-mouthing from the outs trying to replace the ins? That may be so, to some extent. But the Asian Development Bank, not known for throwing partisan wet blankets, recently came out with the killjoy statement that our 6.2% GDP growth is just isn�t enough to enable the Philippines to catch up with our neighbors. Said Thomas Crouch, ADB country director in the Philippines, somewhat redundantly, �Whether the Philippines can catch up with its Asian neighbors, the Philippines has a lot of catching up to do. A five-percent growth rate per annum won�t do. A six-percent growth rate per annum won�t do it�..A number of commentators agree that a 7% growth rate, extended over a period of time, would help. That is what is needed for the Philippines to be able to catch up�...� (Today, Jan. 21.) Those who are knowledgeable about the economic history of East Asia will agree with Crouch. The seven economic tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) got to where they are now because of rapid GDP growth (8-12% per annum), sustained over a period of at least 20 years or 80 quarters. And this rapid economic growth was achieved largely through the export of manufactured goods during the 70s and 80s and maintained through the 90s to the present. In other words, broad-based manufacturing or industrialization, at first geared towards the global marketplace, later geared towards the domestic market as well, was the key to economic success for our neighbors, attained in environments of declining population growth rates. (See my article �Why Are We Poor?� Dec. 14, 2004.) In 2003, China�s exports totaled $436.1 bn (pop growth rate 0.61%); South Korea $201.3 bn (0.62%); Taiwan $143.0 bn (0.64%); Singapore $142.2 bn (0.56%); Malaysia $98.4 bn (1.83%); and Thailand $76.0 bn (0.91%). I do not have the statistics for Hong Kong but, based on previous years� performance, exports in 2003 must be around $160 bn, and population growth rate around 0.80%. Even relative laggard Indonesia had more encouraging numbers in 2003: exports worth $63.9 bn, and a population growth rate of 1.49%.. The Philippines, which exported only $34.6 bn worth in 2003 and had/has a virtually unchanging population growth rate of 2.36%, is just not in the same league and has virtually no chance of catching up with its more aggressive neighbors. Success for this country will have to be measured in terms of not being overtaken by the next Asian tiger, Vietnam, after having been overtaken by everybody else (Keep in mind that prior to the late 60s, the Philippines enjoyed a standard of living and a per capita GDP higher than all these upstart countries. That is the magnitude of the failure of our leaders, from Marcos to Arroyo.) In 2003, Vietnam exported $19.9 bn worth and had a population growth rate of 1.34%. For the past eight or nine years, Vietnam�s GDP has been growing at from 7 to 9 % per annum. An efficient agriculture sector contributes a large part of its exports and, more importantly, keeps food abundant and cheap. Although per capita GDP is about half that of the Philippines, no one goes hungry in Vietnam. Being a one-party socialist state, Vietnam doers not experience much political infighting, and the ruling communist party does not allow its workers to go on strike, except for reasons of its own. Having defeated the French and the Americans in war, the Vietnamese have a strong sense of national pride and unity, which Filipinos just do not have. Vietnam, however, is rated more corrupt than the Philippines, by PERC Ltd. of Hong Kong., which we should consider a slur on our national honor. Where is the Hope? In its January 23 issue, the Philippine Daily Inquirer�s Talk of the Town section posed the question �Where will the masses turn for hope?� Mario Taguiwalo, of Pagbabago, and Rigoberto Tiglao, of Malacanang, gave their differing replies. Taguiwalo, who titled his article �People�s patience wearing thin,� estimates that about half of the �masses� voted for President Arroyo, the other half for FPJ, in the May 2004 elections. As the apparent winner, GMA has to show the other half who did not vote for her that she is also their leader. The results of public opinion surveys in November and December, says Taguiwalo, show increased levels of disapproval and pessimism, indicating that the �masses� have not turned to GMA for hope. I do not know where Taguiwalo got his figures that 92% of the Philippine population belong to the D and E socio-economic underclass, and only 8% belong to the ABC. My own recollection from marketing and polling people is that the ABC, the upper and middle classes, make up about 25% of Filipino households, and the DE the remaining 75%. Will somebody please enlighten us? I am not quibbling over a minor point. I have often stressed in this space that it is the middle class that is the most important class in Philippine society, as it is in most societies. The underclasses are too caught up in the daily struggle for survival to have the time and the means for critical thought. It is the middle class who have the both the leisure time and the intellectual depth to contemplate the human condition, and it is the middle class who have both the bristling anger and the pioneering spirit to blaze new trails for the rest of society to follow, including extra-constitutional people power exercises. But if we indeed make up less than eight percent of the population, and the underclasses an humungous 92 percent, we may not be an irresistible force to an immoveable object, in which case we are all wasting our time discussing anything serious and political. Taguiwalo rhetorically asks, �Can President Arroyo lead the nation to finally make the crucial steps to turn away from the more than 40 years of failure that came before her? Or will the masses lose heart in this elected government and turn elsewhere for their salvation soon?� He should well have asked that of the more important middle class. Not the De Soto Tours, Stupid Bobby Tiglao, head of the Malacanang Presidential Management Staff, titled his rejoinder, rather unoriginally, �It�s the Economy Stupid.�.He says Taguiwalo may be confusing the administration�s program with its public image. That may be true, but in the battle for hearts and minds, perception is sometimes more important than reality. If the Arroyo Government means well but does not know how to project itself, who can blame the public if it does not show much appreciation for that good intention, or for its road map to progress, or whatever? Tiglao rightly points out that the 40 years of failure that Taguiwalo lamented and which GMA merely inherited from previous presidents were aggravated by communist and secessionist insurgencies which our neighbors either did not suffer or were able to stamp out quickly with decisive action. The question, however, begs to be asked: why are Filipino leaders, including GMA herself, apparently incapable of decisive action? Tiglao trots out GMA�s 10-Point Agenda which, among other things, plans to create 10 million jobs in the next six years. Aside from the fact that new entrants to the labor market in the next six years would be numbering almost ten million, and GMA would therefore be merely running fast just to stay where she is, as far as unemployment is concerned, her development plan pointedly ignores manufacturing as a generator of jobs. Her development plan concentrates on agriculture, tourism and telecommunications, and ignores manufacturing because she is ideologically committed to free trade and globalization, under which this country has been crossed out as a manufacturing center and must earn its dollars through the export of labor, not manufactured goods. So how will she generate ten million jobs? Enter Hernando de Soto and the De Soto Tours, which she inaugurated on the fourth anniversary of the extra-constitutional EDSA Dos people power that elevated her to the presidency. Her people avoided celebrating the event because they were afraid, and correctly so, that the disenchanted middle class would have snubbed it. So how would she look if nobody came to her parade? Under the De Soto plan, which GMA will now propagandize, urban squatters will be sold, under very generous terms, the land on which their hovels squat, giving them assets that they can use as collateral to secure bank loans. The prayer is that squatters will use these loans to start their own small businesses: dress shops, barbecue stands, plant nurseries, barber shops, appliance repair shops, mineral water outlets, tricycle or jeepney units, second-hand cellphone outlets, ukay-ukay enterprises, lotto outlets, off-track betting stations, laundromats, fruit stands, truck gardens etc�.and thereby reduce unemployment and add a fraction of a point, no matter how miniscule, to GDP. For those who are down and out, I would agree with Tiglao that this offers some hope. But this is not the stuff that builds economic tigers. None of the countries in Latin America and Africa that adopted the De Soto plan are in danger of becoming another Malaysia or another Thailand, let alone another Taiwan or another South Korea. Perhaps that is why the rich countries treat De Soto like a secular saint: they want to see poor countries improve their conditions, but not to the point that they become competitors to their manufactured products. This seems to be the height of GMA�s ambitions. Many in the middle class hope for a loftier national aspiration. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions To �Hope� . Tony, Are you a trained economist, an investment analyst or a Ouija Board expert? Why? Because you keep on using "experts" and "statistics" to suit your analysis and forecasts. You cite sources as "objective" in order to augment your "hypotheses" (So what is wrong with that? Every scholar or academic uses footnotes to cite �experts and statistics�, to �suit his or her analysis� and to �augment his or her hypothesis.� Since newspapers and magazines are not designed to accommodate footnotes, those �experts and statistics� are by necessity incorporated into the story or column. Would you rather that journalists and columnists make statements without citing any �experts� or statistics� to back those statements? ACA) For example: you cite the ADB Managing Director as "one who has no axe to grind." And so you take their stats and put it on your plate. How can you prove that ADB statistics are objective? Where have you been hiding? (A critic like you should at least be accurate when you cite something. I did not quote the ADB �managing director�, but the country director. And I did not write that he was �one who has no axe to grind�; I wrote that the Asian Development Bank was �not known for throwing partisan wet blankets.� (No, I cannot prove that ADB statistics are objective. Can you prove that they are not? I have been observing, through many other sources, the economic development of East Asia even before I started writing a column in 1987. The economic tigers really got to where they are now through GDP growth rates of 8 to 12% per annum, over a period of 20 years or more, largely through the export of manufactured goods. Can you cite �experts and statistics� that will disprove this? ACA) You're lucky you do not earn a living as a Wall Street economist or investment analyst - where the investors will either crown or lynch you based on your forecasts.- because your forecasts have to be "right on the money". In your job as a shoot-anything editor, you are privileged to use numbers and statistics - without expecting any consequences. Are you then an Ouija Board expert? That's not a derogatory statement - in fact, it may be a step-up for you. At least those guys or gals deal with magic to entertain. (My Ouija Board is the 2005 World Almanac and Book of Facts (New York, 2005; available in National Book Store), pages 747 to 847, from which I extracted the exports and population growth statistics of China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Are you also saying that the editors of this book are �not objective� and are biased against the Philippines? ACA) (The front page of the Feb. 1 issue of Today quotes BSP Governor Rafael Buenaventura: �A four to six percent economic growth is insufficient for our country, given our rapid population growth.� Is he also an Ouija Board expert, in your objective, patriotic opinion? ACA.) Bottom Line: Everytime I get an e-mail from you - I tell myself: OK - here's the guy who gets paid knocking down anything about the Philippines and thinking he looks respectable doing it. Can you at least touch on other stuff that has a more positive spin? (I could put a positive spin to the same statistics and say that the Philippines can catch up, at least with Thailand, if our exports were to more than double to $80 billion and our population growth rate were to somehow drop to 0.90% by 2010, while Thailand�s were somehow to remain unchanged, at $76.0 billion and 0.91%. But who, besides you, would believe that? Even President Arroyo has set an export target of �only� $50 billion by 2010. ACA) Or will that not sell newspapers? Talk of colonial mentality and crab mentality! (Talk of burying one�s head in the sand while waving the Philippine flag. ACA) Manuel Tiangha, [email protected] January 28, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, how will you put into equation the passage of the VAT which will greatly impact the poor? Also, Gloria the virago was gloating on the strengthening of the peso attributing it to her economic policy. I believe that this can be attributed to worldwide diminishing value of the US dollar. Narciso Ner, [email protected] January 28, 2005 MY REPLY. I agree with you. The strengthening of the peso � and the euro, the pound and the yen � is a result of the weakening of the dollar, which I suspect is a deliberate ploy of the Bush administration to make imports into the US more expensive and US exports abroad cheaper, and thus help save American jobs. Some $500 million of �hot money� are said to have entered the Philippine economy in the past week or so, so-called because said money is used to speculate in the stock, real estate, forex and financial markets, not to set up factories or call centers or mining enterprises. The global experience in the 1997 Asian financial crisis is that �hot money� flies away at the slightest hint of trouble and causes bankruptcies, devaluation and sudden unemployment. In 1997, only Malaysia and China escaped damage from the crisis, because they had the foresight not to make their currencies freely convertible. We hope there will be no financial crisis this time around. As for VAT and other taxes, I am in favor of more taxes � on the rich, the poor and the middle class � as long as the government seriously clamps down on corruption. I will write about it in another column. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Sir, The slur to the Filipino National Honor comment was hilarious. I usually just read your articles, agree with them and see no need to comment. In this article, you hit the nail on the head. My point of view is an outsider�s. From my point of view, what does the Philippines need with more BBQ stands, barber shops, tailors, etc? I don't see why some thought does not go into how to use the minds of all of those University Graduates that the PI for some other reason than export. Sure, in the short run, overseas workers generate a lot of Capital, but wouldn't it be better in the long run if these people stayed home and worked from the PI? An example of this is when you call a US Computer Company's technical support phone number. Good chance, that American will be talking to someone from India who is from India and was educated in India. My wife graduated from AMA Computer University. Needless to say, there were a lot of computer geeks at Ascension Lutheran Church in Cebu on the day of our wedding, a few years ago. One of our sponsors was a Professor at AMA and he and I had a lengthy discussion on this subject. If someone got smart, he or she would invest in and adequately fund a software company specifically designed to contract work to the large software firms such as Sun and Microsoft. I am sure most of the professional fields in the PI are the same way. Have a good'un!! Larry Tilby, [email protected] January 28, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, 40 YEARS OF FAILURE? ISN�T THAT A BLANKET STATEMENT HASTILY WRITTEN? DOES TAGUIWALO BELIEVE THAT WE FILIPINOS ARE INDEED THAT STUPID? IF THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING BUT FAILURE IN THE PAST 40 YEARS, I THINK THE PHILIPPINES WOULD HAVE CEASED TO EXIST. FOR OUR OWN GOOD, I THINK WE SHOULD THINK TWICE BEFORE MAKING SUCH BLANKET STATEMENTS. THAT IS A COP OUT, THAT IS WHY EACH ADMINISTRATION BLAMES THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LAMENTS INHERITING ONLY THE FAILURES. ISN�T IT ABOUT TIME WE TAKE STOCK OF WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED, (malgre tout, as the French say)? Sincerely, Gemma Cruz-Araneta Mexico City, Mexico, January 28, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Copy furnished) To: botomo2yahoogroups.com Let us nurse these small gains by less bashing of the administration and each other. Media should tame its critical attitude by being more positive and less prejudiced. Those not capable of objective writing (those who do not know what objectivity means) have no business making widely disseminated commentaries that poison minds and dampen the spirit. The saddest thing is the fact that many of our media people, particularly radio and TV broadcaster/commentors, are so ill-informed and not intellectually equipped to make critical, dispassionate and intelligent readings of social, economic and political events. Palagi na lang naghahasik ng lagim at poot! Mabuhay! Mang Senyong E, J. Tirona, [email protected] January 28, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hello Tony, I do not know you personally, but I have been hearing from you and reading your articles when I was still based in the Philippines. I do not even know why I suddenly started receiving copies of your articles. For whatever reason, these are e-mails, though unexpected, are certainly most welcomed. Please keep them coming. Words of wisdom coming from Filipinos like you, keep our hopes alive for our country. I have been away for about 5 years now and living the life of uncertainty in another country hoping that normalcy in our lives will one day be a reality. It was unimaginable for me before to live the fugitive (cosmeticized as TNT) lives of my friends for the sake of economic benefits. But then, as fate would have it, Filipinos elected an actor, and everything went from worse to worst. Reality sank in and the family was left with no choice but to take a gamble in the great land of opportunity. Now we have an economist, and still everyone wonders if there is any difference. Everything else equal, Filipinos living abroad, regardless of immigration status, will, in general, prefer to go back and spend the rest of their lives in the Philippines-- less stressful living, as we say. However, I am now resigned to the fact that this will not happen in my lifetime. Filipinos, as a people, never ceases to miss opportunities presented to them. It's political and economic leaders, in general, never cease to fail its mandate of providing directions to its people and the nation. Young people before me aspired to succeed for themselves and for their country. Very few were leaving and locally-generated businesses were flourishing. During my time, young people started to look beyond the borders to gain economic leverage and bring back to the Philippines the fruits of their labor. Now, young people are dreaming for what is beyond the horizon to gain economic freedom and leave the Philippines for good. One can only surmise what's next. Am I sounding pessimistic? Who is not? One who has not seen his country, his friends and his family for sometime because of economic uncertainties from where he came from, can only dream that one day, he will have enough reasons to come back. Maybe tomorrow, or the next day, or the day after, or the day after, or . . . Mabuhay ang Pilipinas! Arnel Serrano, [email protected] California, January 28, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Does the GDP growth rate of 6.2% include the underground economic activity? I do not believe it does because there are no receipts issued. I wonder if there is any hard and fast data that can show just how much underground economic activity there is. I do not believe they would just contribute a fraction of a point to GNP. I tend to believe a businessman cited by Ms. Pedrosa (if I remembered correctly) in her article who said the actual gdp growth is significantly higher when you consider the underground economy. Don't underestimate the income being earned by people in the underground economy? For some, it is at least high enough to support the high school and college education of their children. The government recognizes this and that is the reason for trying to stimulate more underground economic activity. Have a nice day! Bobby Tordesillas, [email protected] January 28, 2005 MY REPLY. I realize that in our situation, where people have to make ends meet through any means they can think of, because of the scarcity of regular jobs, the underground economy is the only way out for many. I did acknowledge this in my article, that �For those who are down and out, I agree with Tiglao that this offers some hope.� But, I added, �this is not the stuff that builds economic tigers.� There has been a cottage industry in the past decade or so, trying to fathom why the Philippines has been left behind by its previously poorer neighbors. The communists blame it on American imperialism, the conditionalities of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and the greed of oligarchs and bureaucrat-capitalists. Out-of-power trapos blame it on graft and corruption, too much politics, etc. by whoever is in power. I�m probably the only one who takes the position that it was caused by poor leadership and the wrong choice of economic strategies (which is symptomatic of poor leadership), specifically: minimum wage law (1950-60s), failure to build an economy based on the export of manufactured goods (1970s-1980s); failure to take advantage of the tourism boom (1990s); premature embrace of free trade and globalization (1990s to 2000s); failure to tame population growth (since 1986, except during the term of Pres. Ramos); deliberate neglect of manufacturing as the prime generator of jobs (2000s). wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Antonio Abaya, The seven economic tigers you mentioned (South Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand) have all something in common: none of them are faced with Muslim insurgency or any kind of extortionist group such as the Abu Sayyaf in their own backyard, thus, making investors more confident to expand their operations. This, however, is a chronic problem in the Philippines and should be dealt with effectively through peaceful agreement between parties if possible. It is of primary importance that the Philippine government improves the peace situation in our country to encourage offshore investments. I want to see more Levis, Adidas, computer parts, stereos, televisions, car parts etc. made in the Philippines not China. During the Asian economic meltdown, the Philippine economy was stabilized by money coming from the OFWs( Overseas Filipino Workers). Soon if not now, another group of Filipinos will be coming back to our country like migratory birds to spend their money like there is no tomorrow. I am talking about the baby- boomers generation who are loaded with pension money to spend and invest in the Philippines. For example in Canada, the basic pension of a person retiring at 65 years will be at least $1200.00/month. Include in this amount mutual funds, Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) which is similar to 401K in the States, company pension like the superannuation, savings deposits and other property investments. Compare that to Gen. Garcia's monthly income of P37,000.00. These people will not sit idle and stare at their money stagnate especially if the present interest rates are not something to talk about. They will spend or invest it. The reality is, it is cheaper to live in the Philippines than in Canada or U.S. and they can still afford house-helpers and do away with washing dishes once and for all. Six months here and six months there is the name of the game. The Arroyo government should come up with a plan to encourage this generation of pensioners to stay in our beautiful country by reducing lawlessness and corruption in our government , otherwise they will retire in Mexico instead. The worse thing for the Philippines is to lose hope. The baby-boomers will provide that hope if the conditions in our country is just right for the taking. Sincerely yours, Emil Diaz, Jr. , [email protected] Vancouver, Canada, January 28, 2005 MY REPLY. Just a footnote. Thailand does have a Muslim secessionist insurgency in its predominantly Muslim southern provinces. More than 500 have been killed in the past 12 months, including some 80 Muslim prisoners who suffocated to death in police vans while under police detention, only last December. Predominantly Muslim Malaysia had an incipient insurgency by the Islamic fundamentalist Al-Arqham sect which started to train 300 armed fighters in the jungles of southern Thailand in the mid-1990s. But this was nipped in the bud by the decisive action of PM Mahathir who outlawed the organization, shut down its newspapers, closed its religious schools, confiscated all its business assets, had the leader extradited from Thailand and threw him in jail, where he still languishes. And no protest from human rights lawyers deterred him. That�s what good leadership is all about. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I agree for the moment with you. The De Soto Plan is dangerous and fiscally tricky. There is more to profit from under the micro-credit scheme but it seems we lag behind Bangladesh and some African countries in applying this idea Ross Tipon, [email protected] Baguio City, January 28, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony Abaya, Thank you for including me in your e mail list. Last November 15, 2004, I wrote to the editor of the Manila Standard that I have kept an editorial of said newspaper since May 4, 1997 when the editorial focused on the Monte de Piedad that became insolvent. The title of the article is Moral Hazard. I would like to know whatever happened thereafter. There must have been people responsible, what punishment was given etc. The poor investors could have been hit by a deluge had not the Central Bank and the Philippine Depository Insurance Corporation come to the rescue. Maybe this could be a subject of an update from you. Thanks. Lina A. Santiago, [email protected] January 27, 2005 MY REPLY. I honestly don�t know what ever became of the Monte de Piedad case. Probably buried in some dark recesses of media�s famously short memory, like so many other short-lived scandals in this country. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww You forgot to mention though that it was during the Macapagal administration or even during the time of Garcia, who proposed an austerity program, that the Philippines started the downfall trend. Marcos must have tried to do a miracle with a brain like his if not for his cronies and troublemaker like Ninoy!!! I was a sophomore at UP but I remember my professors from Agoncillo down to the unknown lecturers telling us that the country was going to the dogs and foreign debts incurred by Macapagal future generations of Filipino and my generation would never be able to pay them. They were right. The foreign debts are even made worst by the daughter!!! This is in fact the purpose of history, and why we should try to be accurate in jotting our journals. It is to remind us of where we go wrong so we can start looking for ways to make amends and make things better, not worst. Funny how Gloria is proving to be her father's daughter indeed. The country is going to the drain just like what Agoncillo, et al used to say about the Macapagal administration, the same financial crisis that made Marcos president twice over! Yuko Takei, [email protected] Tokyo, Japan, January 29, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony -- 2004 is one year where the super-orthodox indicator GNP is OK but other economic indicators that do better to measure economic welfare (originally called "social indicators" but for which the modern term is Quality of Life indicators) such as Poverty and Hunger are definitely NOT OK. In SWS-hunger there happened to be a drop from the 3rd to the 4th quarter, but 2004 as a whole was very much higher than 2003. I'll have the SWS Librarian send you a copy of the SWS Survey Review for 2004 (what address?). FYI, the SWS 4th Quarter Survey had ABC = 13%, D = 60%, E = 27%. I suggest you use 15-60-25 as a rule of thumb. Mahar Mangahas, [email protected] Social Weather Stations January 31, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, Here are the actual proportions of respondents for Pulse Asia surveys from 1999. Since controls are in place for urban-rural distribution, geographic areas and sex, these figures are the same across the years. For the non-control variables including socioeconomic class, you will notice some differences but they generally are close to the mean value of these variables over time. For socioeconomic class, our surveys reflect the following pattern: ABC (10%), D (70%) and E (20%). I am having the Pulse stat group break down the ABC figure and will send you the results later. (Except in Metro Manila or the NCR, the AB respondents in Pulse Asia surveys are generally too small a group to warrant an analysis independent of the bigger class C.) I am glad about your interest in this basic and thus critical matter. Hardly any columnist appears to share your commendable concern. Pepe Miranda, [email protected] Pulse Asia, February 02, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww |
| Tony - You display your anti-Filipino bias too clearly. I am not waving the Philippine flag when I critiqued your article! And if I were - is there anything wrong with that? (I deny that I display an anti-Filipino bias, and I find your remark insulting, to say the least. There is nothing wrong with waving the Filipino flag as long as � and here you disregarded the second half of my statement � you do not bury your head in the sand and deny that there is something basically the matter with this country. ACA) Actually, I am waving the flag of logical clarity and objectivity! Why is it that you have to reduce everyone who doesn't agree with usual stereotype (The Philippines is going down the drain!) to be a Filipino - this is what we Ateneo learned as 'argumentum ad hominem'! I am writing from Southern Cal - in fact I am writing from a beach city. (What �flag of logical clarity and objectivity�? What facts and statistics did you trot out to disprove my statement that the Philippines is way behind its neighbors in exports and population management? I gave you the page numbers in the 2005 World Almanac where you can verify my figures, yet you were not gentlemanly enough to admit that I was right. I reprinted the statement of BSP Governor Rafael Buenaventura saying the same thing that I was saying, yet you were not decent enough to admit the common fabric of our analyses. (You make sarcastic and insulting statements against me � �are you a ouija board expert? you�re lucky you do not earn a living as a Wall Street economist,� etc, - and then you accuse me of making argumentum ad hominem against you! Where did you learn your Latin? I also went to the Ateneo de Manila, for nine years, including six years of compulsory Latin. It is you who is making ad hominem attacks against me, instead of trying to disprove my arguments with facts and figures. ACA) Going back to the question - do you think any coulmn or your coumn can sell if you didn't harp on or veer towrds the edge of focusing on the dark side? You evaded the question. That is why op/ed journalists are now as trusted and as respected as personal injury attorneys: they only see money in blood. The truth is just a passer-by. (In case you don�t know, a columnist is not involved in selling the newspaper in which he writes. That is the job of the editors and the business managers. ACA) How can you equate yourself with an investment analysts' job description? Your forecasts are so wide and so loose that they can't be 'on target'. (I never equated myself �with an investment analyst�s job description.� YOU DID! Re-read your own letter above. Where did you learn Logic? You not only misquote other people, you also forget what you wrote. ACA). Meanwhile - admit it - you are a reincarnation of Dan Rather -- you are a terrorist - meaning - op/ed journalists are terrorists in that they can terrorize numbers and statistics long and well enough to suit their editorial positions. (You are the one who is a verbal terrorist, who cannot argue with facts and figures and logic, who does not admit when he is proven wrong, who habitually misquotes other people and does not remember what he wrote, who uses insulting language to cover up his lack of logical and factual arguments. ACA) Manuel Tiangha, [email protected] February 07, 2005 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |