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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Hezbollah�s Secret Weapon By Antonio C. Abaya Written July 23, 2006 For the Standard Today, July 25 issue It is hard to understand how and why the abduction of, first, one Israeli soldier by the Hamas in Gaza, then two Israeli soldiers by the Hezbollah in the northeast corner of Israel can possibly justify the all-out war unleashed by the mighty Israeli �self-defense� forces on the hapless people of Lebanon. Granted that the powerless Lebanese government has allowed the Hezbollah to virtually take over an entire strip of territory in southern Lebanon, from which militants have fired Katyusha rockets and launched guerilla attacks into northern Israel in recent years. But to punish the entire Lebanese nation for the permissiveness of their government, by bombing their airports, seaports, bridges, highways, power plants, factories, urban centers, radio and TV stations, telecom facilities � which is what the Israelis have been doing for the past two weeks � is tantamount to trying to destroy a hive of bees in someone�s backyard by dynamiting the entire neighborhood. As of this writing, more than 350 people have been killed in Lebanon, almost all of them civilians. A senior diplomat in the British Foreign Office, Kim Howells, speaking in Beirut, has rightly criticized the Israeli overkill: �The destruction of Lebanon�s infrastructure, the death of so many children and so many people. These have not been surgical strikes�.If they�re chasing the Hezbollah, then go for the Hezbollah. Don�t go for the entire Lebanese nation.� Prime Minister Tony Blair�s official spokesman has been quoted by the BBC as saying that his PM �would not be unhappy with Mr. Howell�s comments at all.� Which means Blair shares Howell�s sentiments. The problem is with US President George W. Bush and his neo-con cabal in Washington, whose think tanks are predominantly Jewish and who unquestioningly support anything that the Israelis do.. Said Howells: �I very much hope that the Americans understand what�s happening in Lebanon.� This is diplomatese for saying, �the Americans don�t understand what�s going on there at all.� Do the Israelis know something that the rest of the world doesn�t? Probably, yes. But their response has been counter-productive. In the early days of this crisis, the Hezbollah�s leader, Sheik Hassan Nassrallah, was recorded defiantly boasting �We have a secret weapon!� That boast was prudently not repeated. With their excellent human-intel resources, the Israelis probably have a good idea what this secret weapon is. And that was their own unstated justification, not the hostaging of three Israeli soldiers, for this overkill. What exactly is this secret weapon? This war � and this is war � has been marked by the firing by the Hezbollah of more than 1,000 Katyusha rockets � from an arsenal of an estimated 13,000 � into towns in northern Israel. But Katyushas have a maximum range of only about 22 kms. The port city of Haifa, about 40 kms south of the Lebanese border, has also been hit, more than 50 times, almost certainly not by Katyushas, but by Iranian-built Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 missiles, which have maximum ranges of 45 kms and 75 kms, respectively. But Katyushas and Fajrs are only ballistic missiles, without any guidance system, and are therefore highly inaccurate. They are fired into the air in a certain direction and at a certain angle, with the prayer that the laws of Newtonian physics will carry them to their intended targets. More worrisome to the Israelis would be the C-802 cruise missile, also made in and supplied by Iran, which has a guidance system. One such guided missile hit and disabled an Israeli warship off Beirut last July 15, killing four Israeli sailors. The C-802s have a maximum range of 130 kms and can hit a target in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. With devastating accuracy and effect, as shown by the hit on the warship. Is this the secret weapon that Sheik Nassrallah was boasting about? Probably. And not just because of its range and accuracy, but also because of its potential cargo. It can carry a maximum payload of 600 kgs of explosives. Or, ominously, 600 kgs of chemical or bacteriological agents. Forget nuclear: Iran does not have such weapons, yet. From this military perspective, the Israelis� overkill is understandable. They are trying to pre-empt the Hezbollah from hitting Tel Aviv or Jerusalem with a C-802 guided missile or something similar to it. But from the geopolitical perspective, Israel is shortening its own fuse. Lebanon�s population is 60% Muslim and 39% Maronite Christian. By destroying the Lebanese economy, Israel is driving away its entrepreneurs and middle class, who are largely Christian and pro-Israel, leaving behind an increasingly hostile Muslim lumpen population who are and will be wooed by the Sunni Syrians and the Shia Iranians. In other words, Israel is unwittingly providing more recruits for the (Shia) Hezbollah in Lebanon and the (Sunni) Hamas in Gaza. It is not at all far-fetched to imagine a Lebanon totally controlled by Iran in the near future. It will be part of a new Persian Empire that stretches from Afghanistan, through Iran and Shia-dominated southern Iraq, Syria (as a Sunni satrap) and Lebanon, much like the Persian Empire of Darius, conquered by Alexander the Great 2,400 years ago, which included present-day Turkey, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and Libya. (Tyre, one of the Lebanese cities being pounded by Israeli planes and artillery, was then an island-fortress off the coast, to capture which Alexander had a causeway built to enable his war machines to close in. The causeway still stands to this day, 2,400 years later.) (The city that offered the stiffest resistance to Alexander in his march to Egypt was Gaza in present-day Palestine. To celebrate his victory, Alexander had 3,000 Gaza defenders crucified right on the beach. See my articles Alexander the Greatest, Dec. 8 and 10, 2004) Even if Israel were to occupy southern Lebanon, the rest of that ravaged country would become and remain even more implacably hostile to Israel, stripped as Lebanon is now or will soon be of much of its Christian (and pro-Israel) middle-class. Israel�s remaining friend in the neighborhood would be the pro-western Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which is as few as only 46 kms away from the Mediterranean Sea from the 80-km long Israel-Jordan border along the River Jordan. The whole of Israel would be indefensible against a jihadist army massed east of the River Jordan and armed with thousands of Katyushas, Fajrs and C-802s. Jordan is home to several hundred thousand Palestinian refugees displaced during the 1967 Six-Day War, whose natural desire to recover their ancestral lands in the West Bank would be cultivated by the new Darius, Iran�s President Ahmadinejad, who has unequivocally stated his fervent desire to drive the Israelis to the (Mediterranean) sea and wipe Israel off the map. ***** Reactions to [email protected]. Other articles since 2001 in www.tapatt.org. Current articles also in tonyabaya.multiply.com and tapatt.yahoogroups.com OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
| Reactions to �Hezbollah�s Secret Weapon� Hello. Through Google I saw your article about "Hizbollah's Secret Weapon" Manila Standard, July 24 . It was interesting - you obviously have a lot of information. However, I have a few problems with some of the things you say. Certainly it is naive to think that Israel is merely "responding" to the three kidnapped soldiers (not to mention the eight soldiers killed that day when they were lured into a trap.) It is naive to think that all would have been well if Israel would have only left Hizbollah alone with their threats and their armaments. All would have been just good for Lebanon. And what about Israel? What alternative do they have? I also object to the use of the term "neocon cabal". Cabal, as I'm sure you know, has very anti-Jewish overtones suggestive of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. One must be careful with one's words. As a student of history you must also know that the Jewish people has been persecuted for thousands of years and are still reeling from the horrifying obscenity perpetrated against them called the Holocaust. They also have a right to self determination and self preservation. This is not about the existence or non-existence of a secret weapon. This is about a fight for survival. Thank you for your time, Toby, [email protected], July 26, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww US Strategy is to come thru an image of someone providing a humanitarian aid to promote a good image. Majority of the destructions were in the Muslim areas in Lebanon. The Lebanese Christians do not support Hezbollah but could not do anything. I do not have sentiments with the Hezbollah because they are a party that has its own private army. Imagine Gringo Honasan with his party having its own army, would you be willing to go against his party? Hezbollah army must be disban. Syria and Iran support and supplies made this party and army dominate Lebanon political scene. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan are Sunnis who are against the move of Hezbollah because they were not informed and asked approval. They were worried to the widening influence of Iran who are Shiites in the Arab region. Many criticize Israel for applying too much strength in Lebanon, but is there any country who would want to get in to the picture? Imagine 100 Katyusha rockets coming down from the sky terrorizing your city every night. I don�t think Israel would want a diplomatic solution against an enemy who aims for the destruction of the Jewish race. Is Hezbollah racist? I think so. Nonoy Ramos, [email protected], Pennsylvania, July 26, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: Much of the world has condemned Israel's pummeling of Lebanon as clearly "disproportionate." One cannot help concluding that Israel has conveniently used the kidnapping by Hizbollah of two of its soldiers as merely a pretext for its underlying goal of using its military might in an attempt to decimate once and for all a long-time enemy, the Hizbollah. In its pursuit of this goal, Israel has chosen not to discriminate between Hizbollah on one hand and Lebanese civilian targets on the other hand. It has justified the killing and injuring of hundreds of Lebanese civilians as simply unavoidable "collateral" damage! The sad thing is that the United States has chosen to be complicit in this horrendous Israeli adventure. Such complicity is not likely to endear it to Arabs and Muslims all over the world. Mariano Patalinjug, [email protected], Yonkers, New York, July 26, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Lebanon, as it is, is already hostile to the Israelis. In fact, to quote their consul here, they regard the Hezbollah not only as Lebanese but also as freedom fighters. They provide the space upon which Hezbollah thrives. Face it, Tony, the Israelis know that the Arab world, Lebanese included, hate them and negotiation is interpreted as weakness. Even if the Israelis do not bomb Lebanon, the level of hatred would still be the same. So the Israelis have nothing to lose if they go in and smash a country's infrastructure as punishment for the Hezbollah which everyone overlooks is part of the Lebanese government and hence whose actions are tantamount to being actions of the Lebanese state itself. Imagine if the Israelis were as pussyfooted and indecisive as us, they'd have been driven out to the sea in the early 1900s by the Arabs. Jose Custodio, [email protected], July 26, 2006 MY REPLY. The Lebanese Christians, who make up a sizeable 39% of Lebanon�s population, are generally pro-Israel. But by destroying Lebanon�s economy, Israel is driving out the (largely middle-class) Christians from Lebanon, making the remaining population more proportionately Muslim and implacably anti-Israel. That was one of the points raised in my article. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr. Abaya: While reading this, at the back of my mind are the 34,000 Filipinos in Lebanon. Mostly lowly-paid domestic helpers. Watching CNN, I envy the Americans, the British, and other rich and powerful nations. They have sent their warships to bring out their nationals to safety. But the Filipinos... I wonder how they are coping. Poor domestic helpers... I keep on wondering also why would the Hezbollah members want to wipe out all the Israelis? And the Israelis destroying Lebanon to wipe out Hezbollah...The CNN footage of that 2-month old baby boy whose back was burned when their house was hit by an Israeli bomb does not leave my mind. Cesar Torres, [email protected], San Francisco, July 26, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww On the push-button war in the Middle East, we are in a fine situation. We have a do-nothing US Congress. We have a do-nothing US President. The world is on fire, and the band plays on. Virgilio I. Gonzales, [email protected], July 26, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Quite plausible Mr. Abaya. This is good analysis. The Israeli response leans heavily towards the military instrument which could be inadequate and possibly wrong--a myopic solution. Now, it would be difficult for the West to object to Hezbollah or Lebanon, or Syria getting even more powerful and more accurate weapons in the future. There are Russian-made cruise missiles, the Sunburn and the Onyx, which had been sold already to China and could be in Iran's possession---for the Iranians to copy. Commentators say the US Navy has no effective defense against them. They travel at Mach 2.1 and 2.5 respectively. The Sunburn has a range of 90 kms while the Onyx can reach farther. There is no other long-range strategic conclusion. Nuclear weapons would proliferate among the Islamic powers as Pakistan seems to be manufacturing plutonium in haste. Musharraf won't be President forever. There are, they say, 300 million Arabs and 6 million Israelis located in a sliver of land. Israeli should plan for relocation of the entire country, probably in American desert states. Tony Anciano, [email protected], July 26, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, your analysis is more lucid and encompassing than what I've read so far. Thanks for making your readers understand with your fine writing. Rudy Ordonez, [email protected], July 26, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Since you feel that what Israel is doing is wrong please advise all how you would have handled getting back the 3 soldiers and destroying the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist organizations which has a kilometre long list of attacks on civilians and in public areas over the last many years. Please explain how you could remove the tumor without cutting at it. Your analogy of the bees not comparable since you can see the bees and know where they are and what the look like. Maybe you can see the Hamas and Hezbollah in the many different disguises and hideouts and can use a laser beam at each and individual one. I hope that since you printed you point of view about the Israeli way of handling the matter that you will also print the way you would handle it since I do not have the list of people that see you article to be able to send this to them. I think we should be FAIR to all parties. I disagree with many of your presentation below and am not Israeli. If I were the one to decide - all it would take is five bombs and then the required surgical strikes would no longer be necessary. This would include Syria and Iran. Charles 'Guy' Rodriguez, [email protected], Sydney Australia, July 26, 2006 MY REPLY. There is no need to be testy or personal about this. It is possible to disagree without being disagreeable. You ask what I would do if I were the Israelis. If the Muslims kidnap three of my soldiers, I would kidnap six of theirs, not bomb an entire country back to the Stone Age. If they fire 10 Katyusha rockets into my territory, I would fire 20 Katyusha rockets into theirs, not destroy an entire economy, etc. All the while explaining the tit for tat to the world.. You say that, if it were for you to decide, you would drop only five (presumably nuclear) bombs on them, including Syria and Iran. Good for you. But don�t complain if and when they drop ten (nuclear) bombs on you and yours. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr Abaya, What a terrifying prospect this is for all of us. Has World War III started, if unofficially? Ethel, [email protected], July 27, 2006 MY REPLY. I thought World War III started with 9/11. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww TONY, DING (LICHAUCO) SAYS THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST ARTICLES HE HAS READ. Nita Lichauco, [email protected], July 27, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I agree with you, Tony. Nonong Quezon had a great show on ANC the other day where he went into a historical explanation for the conflict. It�s the Brits that started this sordid mess, when they divided the Middle East and apportioned to Israel Palestinian property. The mess they caused in India and Pakistan is still a big bone of contention today. And, of course, as you say, the Jews who control Washington are calling the shots! C�est la vie! Jayjay Calero, [email protected], July 27, 2006 MY REPLY. Actually, the Jews were there first. But they were driven out by the Romans in the year 70 AD. They started going back in trickles to Judea in the late 19th century, through the Zionist Movement organized by Theodor Herzl. The trickle became a flood after the Second World War when survivors of the Holocaust sought to go back to the land of their ancestors. But, of course, the Arabs had settled there for more than 1,800 years, after the Jews had been expelled by the Romans. The British inherited the problem from the Turks, who were defeated by the British in 1917.The Turks, being Muslims like the Arabs, would have barred the Jews from re-occupying Judea. Winston Churchill, at one time, offered Madagascar to the Jews, instead of Judea, but the Jews were not interested. So to whom does the land belong? Without going into moral, legal and historical reasons, the land belongs to whoever can maintain sovereignty over it. See my article Who Owns Manhattan? (Oct. 23, 2001). I am generally pro-Israel and I admire the Jews, but since Ariel Sharon became prime minister, the Israelis have been behaving as if they have forgotten that they had been victims of the Holocaust. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: I missed your articles - February to half of July, the Days of Discontent. Pardon my impatience but I understand family affairs must prevail. Please accept my condolences for the loss of your Beloved Wife - Marica. Hezbollah I think is the tip of the spear that the Jihadist Camp in Islamic world is using to ignite what would be the Armaggedon of biblical lore and the End of the World, as we know it, that Nostradamus foresaw and warned us about -the forces of Gog and Magog from the East. Happen, it will, but may be not in our lifetime. Pity our children and their children! From the Sumerian artifacts deposited in London, Berlin and universities in the USA, Zacariah Setchin pasted together a proto historical account of the conflicts between the opposing forces of gods and men so early in earth's history that human memory have largely forgotten but remain in the mist of peoples' lores. The ancient world was divided into FOUR REGIONS. First was the region of the land between the two rivers Tigris and Euphrates inhabited by the followers of two rival brother gods - Enki and Enlil. Second was the region composed of ancient Egypt, Ethiopia and the African domain. Third was the region now commonly known as India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. FOURTH was the region reserved for the gods who travel from earth to their celestial domain that included the Sinai Peninsula and what is now Israel and Lebanon (Baalbek). The Bible and the ancient Sumerian writings, including those from the Assyrian and Babylonian civilizations, share common threads in identifying the Fourth Region as the location in ancient times that started the first devastating war between civilizations. The Bible graphically wrote of the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah in the wars between the kings of the East and the West. Sumerian Books of Lamentations mention that the wars waged by the gods that later engulfed and destroyed the four regions also started in the same region with the use of "the weapons of the gods". Then came the rise of the FIFTH REGION - the Kingdom across the Seas in the New World that would be the Americas in Peru, Mexico, Ecuador etc - those who escaped the conflagration of the Ancient World. But that is another story. The ancient Seer Nostradamus foresaw a similar scenario that later in the 21st century the academic Samuel Huntington in his Clash of Civilizations warned us about barely 10 years ago. The root of conflict in our present Middle East therefore likely spans from the dawn of early earth and human history up to the end times foreseen by "seers" like Nostradamus and Huntington and the Neo-Cons in DC that you love to blame. But Tony, these Neo-Cons of Bush are just a speck, a nano second flash in the tapestry of time - victims all of us, written forever in time in the stars ! An amalgamation of the knowledge we have accumulated tell us of the different conflicts: 1. First came the struggle between Good and Evil (among the gods, angels, whatever, or the Titans and Ancient gods in Greek mythology) before time. 2. In the oldest extant history of SUMER (written 10,000 BCE in clay and stone), the struggle between the gods identified with the opposing camps Enlil and Enki that involved what was then the four civilizations of the ancient world. 3. Then we have the Judeo-Christian bible tradition that pitted the sons of Adam, then Abraham against each other and cascade down in time hops to the Middle Ages during the conflicts between the faithful followers of Mohammad and Christ. Forget the Jews - they were exiled almost forever until that Bavarian Corporal tried to exterminate them, and we ended up with Israel, the Kingdom of Zion in modern times. Huntington was right. This is not only about religion � it�s part of it though. It's a clash of civilizations that begun in the dawn of time and will not end until the end times and the dawn of the Millenium of Peace, but not in our time, Tony. It is a comfort in our faith that we hold on to the Promise that Christ will come again, and there is life after death, a resurrection for us. Muslim writings and traditions believe that the DAJJAL (Anti Christ) will come in the end of times in Isfahan (Iran), reach Medinah and threaten Meccah (seat of the Muslim Faith), but the Muslims will be saved from the DAJJAL by ISA son of Maryam (CHRIST) who will descend from Heaven to a mosque in Syria(!) pursue and destroy DAJJAL in Lydda (what is now Lod, Israel). That's comforting. CHRIST saving the Muslims from the False Prophet bred in IRAN, who threatens the ISLAMIC CENTER of MECCA, wage war in the Muslim Middle East into Israel, but is destroyed eventually inside Israel in the City of LOD! So, there's a congruence of the Muslim and Christian faiths as to what will happen in the end of times. The False Prophet will rise in Iran, threaten the Muslim World (UMMAH), and the Muslim UMMAH will be SAVED by ISA son of Maryam (CHRIST) who descend from Heaven down to a Mosque in Syria, and pursue the DAJJAL who has invaded ISRAEL and be destroyed in the City of LOD in Central Israel 34�54',E 22 km/14 miles southeast of Tel Aviv and 3km/2miles northeast of Ramla. Events happening now are read in different levels of interpretation. But I would rely most on the historical threads spread over time, not in the isolation of current events focused in our myopic biases. As a man of faith, I am comforted that history and my faith promise a tomorrow with salvation and resurrection, that in the end the Muslim and Christian faiths converge, and CHRIST is the SAVIOR! But to go back to the subject we have begun, the DAJJAL = IRAN = Hezbollah, the little devil, will be destroyed in Israel. Such matter is best left to our children and grand children to witness. GOD WILLING ! Renato G. Tababa, [email protected], July 27, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I'm a Filipino of 1/8 Lebanese ancestry. My great-grandfather (my father's mother's father), Elias Gergis [George] Jureidini, was a Lebanese businessman of Greek Orthodox origins from around the Greater-Beirut area (specifically the suburb of Choueifat) who settled in Cebu in the early 1900's. I wish to point out a minor factual inaccuracy that was mentioned in the last article. It was mentioned in the article that Lebanon is 60% Muslim and 39% Maronite Christian. Actually, no one really knows the real and exact census figures as no official census has been taken since the last census of 1932 - from whence the allocations of positions of prominence in the government, as well as the numbers of constituency seats in the Lebanese parliament are based. But while 60 versus 39 is a safe estimate of the ratio of Muslims to Christians, the 39% of the entire population aren't Maronite Christians, but rather Christians in general. That is to say that while Maronite Christians are the most politically dominant and most numerous among the Lebanese Christians, they do not make up an "almost-all" type of majority of Lebanon's Christians. Instead, the Lebanese Christians are somehow more evenly distributed where Maronite Christians are simply the most numerous, forming an estimated 23% of the total Lebanese population, and therefore form approximately 59% of the total Christian population. They have often been pro-Western and very pro-Israel too. (Especially during the Lebanese Civil War) To explain what Maronite Christians are, we can actually describe them as "Lebanese Catholics" because they are loyal to the Vatican - yet retain some ancient Syrian Orthodox practices such as an Aramaic [aka Syriac]-based liturgy and allow a married clergy - most of their parish priests are married priests]. Maronites are the remnants of the community founded by a Syrian Christian hermit from around the Antioch area named St. Maroun, who abandoned the bustling city life, and decided to preach to a community of Syriac-speaking Phoenicians found in the isolated area of Mount Lebanon. As "Syrian Christians" back in ancient times, their community featured many practices present even in today's Greek and Russian Orthodox communities: including allowing Married Men to Become Priests. While they were isolated from the outside world for centuries, the Crusades brought knights, monks, and priests chiefly from France and the rest of the Roman Catholic world to pay a visit upon the area where the Maronites lived, and immediately, the Maronites, being Christians themselves, embraced their co-religionists and sought political and military protection from them and from Rome. As a result, the Maronites became full-fledged members of the Roman Catholic Church, yet were permitted by Rome to continue on with the pre-crusade religious practices they had been used to. Aramaic [aka "Syriac"] - and not Latin - continued to be their language of prayer and liturgy, and their parish priests could be recruited from among the pool of married men. Despite their Syrian Christian origins, their priest's vestments, however, have been thoroughly Latinized (or Romanized, if you will) and are the same as the soutanes and robes of your everyday Roman Catholic priests in the Philippines and the rest of the Catholic world, which was a result of the Maronite community's desire to be in-sync with the Latin-rite Catholics of the rest of the World. The direct leader of the Maronite community is the Maronite Patriarch who reports directly to the Pope and is a member of the Vatican's College of Cardinals. (At present, the Maronite Patriarch is Patriarch Boutros Sfeir Nasrallah, and commands a similar following in Lebanese politics as the late Jaime Cardinal Sin, albeit he is not as pesky, annoying, and as "pakialamero" as the latter. Incidentally, the Maronite Patriarch Boutros Sfeir Nasrallah is also known as "Cardinal Nasrallah" to some Western circles.) Ordinary Catholics can attend Maronite Services and Maronites can attend mainstream Catholic services and have no problems feeling familiar with the services (except for language and a few remnants of their ancient Syrian origins, perhaps). There are also Greek Orthodox Christians (allegiance is to the Patriarch of Constantinople in Istanbul) - the religious community from whence my great grandfather was from. They are often said to be pro-Arab Unity, and often times, members of the Greek Orthodox Community sometime ago had a tendency to side with Muslim groups which espoused Secularistic Arab Solidarity. (The Ba'ath Party's founder was a Syrian who was born into a Greek Orthodox family. Greek Orthodox Lebanese tend to have similar views.) Then there are also the Greek Catholic "aka Uniate" or also known as the "Melkite Catholic" Christians. They are former Greek Orthodox Christians who pledged unity and allegiance to the Pope in Rome centuries ago and are now under Rome's jurisdiction, yet retain Byzantine Greek-style architecture, use of icons, liturgical practices, Greek Orthodox-style priest's vestments, Greek language liturgy, married clergy, etc. And then there are also Armenian Apostolic (aka "Orthodox") and Armenian Catholic (Armenian Apostolic communities that pledged allegiance to Rome) groups who are part of the Lebanese Christian community. There are a few - largely negligible numbers of Protestants and Quakers among the Lebanese Christians. (Though some have also been politically prominent such as the late Charles Malik.) By and large, the Vatican's religious influence on Lebanon is substantial, as the various Catholic groups taken altogether (Maronites + Melkites + Armenian Catholics + other Catholics including Chaldeans, Syrian Catholics, etc) roughly makeup some 30% of the entire population of Lebanon. The Muslims are equally divided, not just into Sunni versus Shiite, but also include another group of breakaway Islamic sects who sometimes aren't really considered Muslims by other groups. These groups -which broke away from Shiite Islam include the Druze, a few Alawites (similar to the sect that Syria's political elite is from), and a few Bahai's. For some reason, while the Baha'is are Shiite Islam-derived, they are considered the "least Islamic" among the Islamic sects and have sometimes been considered "totally non-Muslim." The Druze are the most influential among the non-mainstream (Sunni or Shiite) Islamic communities. (Incidentally, it is said that many Shiites from Lebanon are devotees of one of the Maronite Hill-Shrines of the Blessed Virgin Mary.) The present-day rule of thumb in Lebanon of having a Maronite Christian President, a Sunni Muslim Prime Minister, and Shiite Muslim Prime Minister is based on an old census taken in 1932 which roughly had a "60 / 40" divide between Christians and Muslims, with the Christians on the 60 side, and where the Maronites, being the most politically influential and traditionally being the most prominent of the Christian communities, took the leading role. At that time, the Sunni Muslims were the biggest group of Muslims, while the Shiites - back then - followed the Sunnis in size. Today, recent unofficial population estimates say that the situation has changed, where the Christians are now in the 40 side, while the Muslims are on the 60 side, and instead of having the Sunnis dominate the Muslim side numerically, the high birthrate of Shiite Muslims in the past few decades changed the demographics so that today, it is the Shiite Muslims who are numerically dominant among the Muslims. Anyway, all I'm saying is that not all Christians in Lebanon are Maronite. A large number of the Christians are Catholic (of all flavors), and the largest of these Catholic groups are the Maronites. If anything, the Greek Orthodox Christians in Lebanon often rank NEXT to the Maronites in terms of number and political influence within the Christian community. Hope this helps, Orion Perez Dumdum, [email protected], July 27, 2006 PS. Among the Palestinian Christians, Greek Orthodox, followed by Greek Catholic Christians seem to numerically dominate. There are, however, Palestinian Anglicans (formerly Orthodox Christians who converted to Anglicanism back when Palestine was under the British Mandate), and the Palestinian Anglican community includes Hanan Ashrawi who is a leader within the Palestinian Authority, while the late Palestinian-turned-American intellectual and Columbia Professor Edward Said was another influential member. Orthodox and Catholics One main difference between the Orthodox and the Catholics in the Middle East is that the Catholic communities (regardless of what type of Catholics they are) use the Gregorian Calendar (aka the "Updated Julian Calendar"), while the Orthodox groups use the Julian calendar. The Julian calendar is delayed by 13 days due to a difference in leap-year calculations that had accumulated over so many centuries. Christmas is always December 25 in the religious calendar, but December 25 is delayed by 13 days among Julian calendar users, hence their Christmas falls on January 7 because of the 13 day difference that resulted from too many leap-years additions that were a flaw in the original Julian calendar. Re: ARAMAIC FYI, Aramaic is often the name given to the language of the Middle East region (which Jesus is said to have spoken) at the time of the Roman Empire. As soon as Christianity became the official religion of the Roman Empire, the terminology changed and the word "Aramaic" started to be changed to "Syriac." Linguistically speaking, "Syriac" is nothing but a later form of Aramaic, and in many ways, it is like saying "Shakespearean" or "King James Bible English" versus "Modern English." In fact, they are actually interchangeable terms. Syriac was written in a joined "cursive-like" script which to the untrained eye would look a lot like Arabic. Older, more ancient forms of Aramaic, however, used block letters that were unjoined and were reminiscent of ancient Greek letters, with the letter "Aleph" resembling a a slanted, but inverted letter A. Medieval Aramaic aka "Syriac" had thus evolved to look like Arabic from afar and is said to have been a precursor of Arabic writing. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Read with interest and curiosity your detailed and informative article. I agree and clearly see all the points you have brought out. Your presentation and historical facts clearly point out the overall spectrum of this Middle East problem. I appreciate and thank you for sharing all of it. Till our next chat, which I look forward to. Abrazos, Jaime Calero, [email protected], Sydney, Australia, July 27, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Deear Mr. Abaya, I am neither pro nor against Israel. Many have criticized them for what they have done but nobody could offer a solution that will guarantee them safety. Critics could only mouth the usual suggestions about diplomacy or negotiation which have not worked since the creation of Israel. If somebody in my neighbor's house is hell bent on killing me, I will go after him at all cost even if in the process I might kill my neighbor whom I have forewarned against sheltering him. It is a fight for survival. It seems that the resolution will be for one to be simply defeated and the other to survive. In the current Mid-east war, I do not know which one will prevail. Thanks for sharing us your views regularly. Because of the exceptional way you present issues, we, your fans, are able to look at them in an intelligent perspective. I hope that you are able to overcome your personal pain soonest as many of us in similar circumstance have been able to in time. Get on! M. G. Espaldon, [email protected], July 27, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, You have to understand the Jewish mentality in this conflict with Lebanon. Israel kidnaps not only Hizbollah members but also Hamas. Israel imprisons them and oftentimes target them (assassinate them). But the world remains silent. Two kidnap Israel soldiers is but a fraction of what Israel does to suspected militant Hizbollah and Hamas members. Israel has killed more of these freedom fighters (labeled as terrorists by the US and their Zionist friends) and imprisons more of them than what the Hamas and the Hizbollahs have done to the Jews. The only reason Israel behaves this way is because they have the blessings of the US. If you disarm Israel and all Arab nations surrounding Palestine, and bring all the Jews to the US to guard US northern and southern borders, peace will finally descend in the Mideast. There is no land worth fighting for. The Palestinians have them all. This dual approach solves the illegal immigrant issue and the border protection dream of the US. Let us face it: Jews not only guards its own border better but they are equally aggressive in expanding it. I would not be surprised that if this method is adopted, Mexico may eventually become a part of the US and the Jews will deliver Mexico to the US in less than a century and Tijuana in weeks! Dr. Nestor P. Baylan, [email protected], New York City, July 27, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, Israel is surrounded by hostile countries and countless terrorist groups whose avowed aim is to wipe it off the map and drown its Jewish citizens into the Mediterranean Sea, literally. Add to this is the fact that its enemies are growing stronger mostly through oil money and election to the highest echelons of governments (i.e. victories by Hamas and Hizbollah in Palestinian and Lebanese parliaments) and one can understand the "paranoia" that now permeates thinking among Israelis. Better crush these adversaries now when they are still relatively weak rather than deal with them later. Do not give them victories, however small, otherwise many others will be emboldened to snatch some more of these victories. In other words, throw the Old Testament on the enemies. Of course, there is no way Israel can crush Hizbollah, Hamas or those other minor terrorist groups. These are determined enemies who are only too willing to die for their cause and they have the support of the whole Arab and Muslim world. Sophisticated weaponry (fighter planes, nuclear bombs, tanks, missiles, etc) are useless in a guerrilla warfare although these can kill a lot of civilians. Israel has no capability of occupying the countries that harbor these terrorists; it simply does not have enough people.. Furthermore, its very own Muslim population is growing rapidly and is projected to be the majority by year 2035 at the earliest. That's not too far! Despite living in this badly-governed country like ours, I don't envy the Israeli Jews.. Right now they are doing okay but only because of solid American support. The Europeans have abandoned them, as they did before when European Jews were hunted like animals in France, Germany, Russia, Austria and other European countries. The Jews are living on borrowed time. It�s only a matter of time before the forces against them (both internal and external) will gain enough momentum to topple down the Jewish State. This time however, the Jews will not walk like cattle to the gas chamber. They will take the whole Middle East with them to the nuclear furnace. Hermie Gutierrez, [email protected], July 28, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The Israel-Hezbollah conflict underscores the effects of people adhering to the archaic mosaic laws of "an eye for an eye...". These mid east tribes who ascended from the same Patriarch, Abraham (Ibrahim) should all catch up with the New Testament's message, but I fear both sides are unwilling to (or are unaware of) "turning the other cheek". In this present crisis, one side pokes an eye out and the other side takes out the entire head and part of the neck. We cannot expect any de-escalation of hostilities with that kind of thinking. Rafael Santos II, [email protected], Roxas City, July 28, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Ooops, I made a mistake as I was typing away without "editing..." I mentioned that a Shiite would also be Prime Minister (aside from saying that the Prime Minister should be Sunni)... I meant to say that the Prime Minister would be a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the House (lower chamber) would be a Shiite Muslim. That was the minor typo from my end. In summary: President: Maronite Catholic Christian; Prime Minister: Sunni Muslim; Speaker of the House: Shiite Muslim. Orion P. Dumdum, July 28 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi ACA, Re your article today, July 25, from the standpoint of the Israelis they are fighting for their own survival. It is a matter of life and death. They are surrounded by vicious enemies who are not contented with just defeating them but to wipe them off from the face of the earth. All they want is just to be left alone to live in peace. We do not accept what is happening in Lebanon today because we are civilized people. The Israelis are civilized people too, but can their enemies call themselves civilized as well?. From our standpoint, and being civilized about it, we call it barbaric but isn't wiping out an entire race worse than barbaric? When you live your life in fear 24/7 knowing that you are surrounded by enemies who never stop making diabolical plans to kill you what else can you do but forget your civility, kill the bastards and those who protect them. Sadly, that is the political reality. Cesar de los Reyes, [email protected], July 28, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Very enlightening piece from both. Thanks. One thing though, the alternative media has been dissecting the statistics and it seems Israel is going beyond "deterrence". If we take the Iran/Syria angle at face value, why is Israel obliterating Lebanon's infra and encouraging a new generation of terrorists? Reminds me of Goffman's stage play metaphor. What happens behind the curtains is far more complex than what is being presented onstage. Hecky Villanueva, [email protected]. July 29, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr.Abaya, Apropos to your article " Hezbollah's Secret Weapon" It seems the Israeli armed forces have no defense system to neutralize the barrages of Katyuska, Fahrs 3 and 5 rockets. Their Patriot Missiles -- created by Raytheon USA--were created only to turn into smithereens flying ballistic, cruise, scuds, and other bigger missiles. This dilemma of helplessness is reminiscent of the Yom Kippur (Arab-Israel War in 1973) where the Jew's jets like A-4 Skyhawk, F-4 Phantom II, Dassault Mirage III, Dassault Myst�re IV, IAI Nesher, Sud Aviation Vautour were vulnerable to the Russian complimented surface-to- air-missiles (SAM) batteries planted near the Sinai Peninsula. Israel jets then had no defense system on these heat-seeking missiles that saw hundreds of her precious jets fall like boulders from the air. Same also with her tank skippers who were no match against those Soviet equipped Egyptian tank commanders and crews who sported night vision goggles at the expense of the Israelis-- where the term goggles were still alien to them. With thousands of the latter's forces and tanks routed, still the Israeli army prevailed in this war that was much more difficult than the one presently launched by Hezbollah. Why difficult? Jesus, the Israelis were attacked by the combined forces of the Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian, Iraqi, Kuwait, Saudi, Libyan, Yemeni, Algerian, and even Cuban. Mortz Ortigoza, [email protected], Dagupan City, July 30, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Re your article on "Hizbollah's secret weapon'. How many times has Hizbollah attacked northern Israel in "recent years"? Gareth Smyth, FT Tehran, Iran, August 01, 2006 MY REPLY. No, tell me. From the address you gave, I surmise you are the Financial Times correspondent in Tehran. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr Abaya You surmised correctly. I'm surprised you don't know, given this is the central premise of what you wrote. My recollection is that after the Israel withdrawal in 2000, Hizbollah has very rarely fired anything into Israel. There were two rockets fired in 2002, from memory, by the PFLP(GC) but the Lebanese army arrested the perpetrators. There were also a few incidents last year, but there have been far more incursions of the blue line (especially by air) from the Israelis. Best Gareth Smyth, Tehran, Iran, August 06, 2006 MY REPLY. I did not know the EXACT number of times that the Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in recent years. And apparently, neither do you. But my sense, and it also seems to be yours, is that it was not all that frequent, to elicit such a massive response from the Israelis. This, qualitatively, was the premise of my article, that Israel�s response was disproportionate to the provocation. The Israelis may have underrated the capacity of the Hezbollah to keep on lobbing rockets into Israel as well as their (Hezbollah�s) capability to hold what territory they held, and overrated their (Israelis�) own capability to roll through opposition. A case of chutzpah, perhaps. Having said that, however, I recognize that Hezbollah will sooner or later run out rockets and missiles and may be saving the worst (or most destructive) for last. This is what worries me and led me to write �World War III?� wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww A Real Way Out: Fighting Despair, not War By John-Edouard Silva Israel, currently hitting Hezbollah�s military infrastructures, attempts to eradicate their military power. But this is the wrong move. This method will bring no lasting solution, but, rather, a dangerous short-term one. Israel will never get rid of Hezbollah or Hamas or whatever form any of these extremist groups take in the future by fighting the wrong enemy. Israel has been here before. Their enemies have just come back stronger. Not to mention, were it not for President Bush�s (voter-friendly) decision to support Israel in these attacks, then Israel would have the entire International community on their back. Once this military campaign is over, when Hamas or Hezbollah or any other group might actually be physically destroyed, a new one will form a few years after. Probably stronger and definitely more violent then the ones before it. Israel cannot keep launching these military offensives every few years. This does nothing but stimulate the perpetual cycle of violence. It brings no lasting peace and no real solution. Hezbollah itself is not �the root cause of the problem� as President Bush tells us. They must face the real way out to the problem, by attacking the real power these groups prosper with: despair. This region doesn�t need another photo-friendly Middle East Peace Plan, they need a Middle East Economic Plan. There is much talk today of a peacekeeping mission for the region. This would be a temporary solution to a deeper problem. Why is there no talk of a Middle-East Development Committee? That is how to beat despair. Instead of dropping bombs on these people, drop aide. Put an end to the misery and despair terrorist groups thrive on every day. There has to be more of an emphasis on developing these countries rather then destroying them. Would anyone in their right mind, who had stable living conditions, dedicate his life (and possibly give it away) to the destruction of another country? The men who follow these groups are not especially evil. Their religion does not preach any form of violence and their culture certainly doesn�t promote it. These people simply have nothing left to do with their lives. Had they the choice between terrorism and a job, they would surely choose the latter. The problem is: they just haven�t been given that option. Give any people the choice between war and despair or peace and security, they will always choose peace. That should be Israel�s definite weapon of choice. In a land where all hope is lost, any radical can take control; in a land where hope can bloom, hatred is forgotten. The moment Arabs actually believe that tomorrow just might be better then today, is the moment groups like Hezbollah and Hamas will begin to truly disappear. Put simply: you are not going to blow yourself up today, if you believe you can get a job tomorrow. Nor will you accept to go to war. Israel should do exactly that which terrorist groups cannot: help build a stable, peace-loving and developed country. Help them build schools and roads rather then bombing them. That�s a power Hezbollah or Hamas at their prime could never fight against. Hitting at the surface of things will lead to nothing. Solving the core of the problem is the only lasting way out. Give the Arab people a real choice and you will begin to see a considerable drop in extremist followers. You will see a real uprising against these radical groups as they get in the way of these people�s dreams. A dream that can be made reachable, through economic development. Give them hope and they will fight for it, instead of fighting against an enemy. The World will get rid of more terrorists by economically developing these countries rather then bombing them. What is a leader with no followers? What is Hamas or Hezbollah without their followers? These groups tap into the misery of the land to recruit followers. Can you imagine what it must feel like for a father to not be able to support his own family? For a 14 year old to not be able to dream or hope? This is the embarrassment and despair that Hezbollah and Hamas count on. They offer a way out to these people. These groups not only give them an explication for their dire situation (�blame Israel�) but they also offer solutions. After visiting the ruins of Baalbek in the south of Lebanon you are approached by little children selling you t-shirts and hats imprinted with the logos of Hezbollah. They sell these like other kids would in any other country selling sports jerseys or baseball caps. In the south of Lebanon, there are explicit effigies put up in �honor� of past martyrs. Flags stand up brandishing the Hezbollah colors. In the Palestinian territories, how does Hamas recruit martyrs? By giving them a goal in life. What seems as an immoral and radical act to many seems like a welcome relief to others. This is what these groups propose to these people, that they don�t have. They offer an easy way out of their misery. They relieve the embarrassment and despair of their lives, by offering them the �honor� of martyrdom and the respect of having your family taken care of. These terrorist groups will exist as long as they are able to satisfy the needs and responsibilities of the people. Something a weak State cannot offer. The critical error Israel has made is undermining the states role in the respective countries it is currently at war with. That is how these terrorist groups have been able to take so much control and that is how they have infiltrated the respective governments. If Israel had spent less money on its army and more on supporting governments in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, then groups like Hezbollah or Hamas could never have taken the power they have today. Not because the governments could have kept better control over its territories, but because the governments could have offered the same things to the people Hezbollah and Hamas do. Israel has an absolute right to defend herself against all its enemies. They do not have a right to undermine a sovereign State�s authority over its own territory. Instead of destroying the little power and stability the Lebanese government had, Israel should have worked with them. Together, they could have pushed out Hezbollah. Together they could have helped build a better Lebanon. One in which these groups would have no despair to thrive on, no hole to fill. Israel and the World should be implementing hope in these countries, not increasing further hatred. The best way to combat terrorism is to defeat it at its core. Fight the real problem: fight the despair. On that day, lasting peace will come. John-Edouard Silva (212) 702-4936 [email protected] http://web.mac.com/j.e.silva OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |