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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| GMA�s Successes
By Antonio C. Abaya Written on Jan. 16, 2008 For the Standard Today, January 17 issue There should be no doubt or argument about it. The Philippine economy has done better under President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo than under any of her predecessors since Ferdinand Marcos. In the last two years under President Marcos, the economy contracted or shrunk by about nine percent. The assassination of the beloved Ninoy Aquino on August 21, 1983 spawned massive capital flight, which in turn caused the exchange rate to balloon, if memory serves, from about 20 to 60 pesos to one US dollar. As wealthy families and investors, both domestic and foreign, scrambled to change their pesos into dollars, inflation soared to double-digit levels, the likes of which have not been known by most Filipinos now living, except during the Japanese Occupation. This economic meltdown, combined with moral outrage over such a dastardly act, moved the usually complacent middle-class to political activism, which manifested itself in weekly street demonstrations against the Marcos Regime. The presence of a well-known figure around whom the middle-class could rally � Ninoy�s widow, Cory Aquino � gave the public protests the animus it needed, as it snow-balled into the snap elections of February 1986. Under Cory, the Philippine GDP grew 3.5 percent in 1986. 4.3 in 1987, 6.8 in 1988, 6.2 in 1989. The coup attempt in December 1989 by then Col. Gringo Honasan and then Capt. Danilo Lim dragged the GDP down to 4.4 in 1990, and subsequently to negative 0.6 in 1991. The average GDP under Cory was 4.1 percent. Under President Fidel Ramos, GDP grew 0.3 percent in 1992, 2.1 in 1993, 4.4 in 1994, 4.7 in 1995, 5.8 in 1996, and 5.2 in 1997. The Asian Financial Crisis that started in July 1997 dragged the GDP down to negative 0.6 in 1998 as it devastated economies all over the world. The average GDP under President Ramos was 3.1. It should be mentioned that the low GDPs in 1992 and 1993 were due, not just to the coup attempts of Honasan-Lim in December 1989, but also to the daily power outages of up to 8-hours that plagued the economy. And the power outages were due largely to the mothballing by President Aquino of the 620 mw Bataan nuclear power plant just before it was to be commissioned, a concession to the anti-US bases and anti-nuclear agitation of the Communist movement. The slack would have been taken up by the 300 mw Calaca plant and the 300 mw Masinloc plant, both coal-fired, but the commissioning of these plants was blocked by environmentalists. The net effect was that thousands of businesses and industries, and tens of thousands of families were forced to buy and operate their own generators, thus creating as much pollution as, or even more than, Calaca and Masinloc put together. There is a lesson to be learned here, but I doubt if Filipinos have learned it. But I digress. Under President Joseph Estrada, GDP grew 3.4 percent in 1999 and 4.0 in 2000, until he was deposed from office in January 2001 by a military coup d�etat pretending to be people power. The average GDP under President Estrada was 3.7 percent. Under President Arroyo, GDP grew 1.8 percent in 2001, 4.3 in 2002, 4.7 in 2003, 6.0 in 2004, 5.1 in 2005, 5.6 in 2006 and 7.1 in 2007. The average GDP under President Arroyo was 4.94 percent. Forecasts for 2008 range from 5.0 to 6.7 percent. (It takes GDP growth rate of at least 8 percent per annum for 20 years for an economy top reach First World status. This is the level of the achievement of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, from the 1970s to the 1990s.) Under President Arroyo, the economy has developed an upward momentum. And the biggest element in this upward momentum is the remittances from overseas contract workers, which will reach $14 to !5 billion in 2007, compared to practically zero in the 1970s.. The corollary is that if Presidents Aquino, Ramos and Estrada enjoyed a $10 to $15 billion annual OCW windfall during their watch, the GDP during their presidencies would have been substantially higher. (If any reader has the annual figures for OCW remittances staring in 1980, I would appreciate receiving them.) The other corollary is that if President Arroyo did not have this $10 to $15 billion annual OCW windfall, the Philippine economy under her management would not have grown as much as it has in the past five years. This is not to say that President Arroyo did not make any substantial contribution to economic growth from her own initiatives. Far from it. Her biggest success, in my opinion, is the growth of the call center-business outsourcing industry, which now employs more than 200,000 young, urban middle-class Filipinos, and is still growing fast. If one were to revisit her Mid-term Development Plan, which was drafted at the start of her presidency in 2001, one would note that it had three major foci: agriculture, tourism and information technology or IT. So the call-center phenomenon was an Arroyo initiative and it is a major success, for which she deserves full credit. The passage and implementation of the EVAT is also an Arroyo success, which substantially increased government revenues, enabling it � theoretically at least � to invest more in infrastructure and social services. But this has its limits, which may have been reached already, judging from the frantic efforts to sell government assets, such as those in the power sector. Without the sale of government assets, the government seems to be running out of money. Economists tell us that a government�s tax collection efforts should amount to at least 16 percent of GDP. Even with his dictatorial powers, President Marcos could manage only 9 to 12 percent. Presidents Aquino and Ramos were able to raise it to 13 to 14 percent. President Arroyo may have been the first president to raise that percentage to 15-16 percent, but apparently not much more than that, which suggest unresolved problems from chronic tax evasion and smuggling. President Arroyo has also achieved moderate success in tourism, one of the three foci in her Midterm Development Plan. Tourist arrivals topped three million in 2007, for the first time ever. I say �moderate� because Thailand drew 13 million tourists, Malaysia 16 million, in the same period. In 1991, Indonesia and the Philippines drew more or less the same number of tourists: one million. Since then, Indonesia �s tourist arrivals have reached five million, despite the Bali and Jakarta bombings, while we are celebrating only three million. Don�t look now, but tiny Cambodia just topped two million in 2007, and Vietnam is investing heavily to develop its entire South China Sea coast into a tourist magnet.. President Arroyo�s third economic focus: agriculture is, in my opinion, a mixed bag. Even assuming that production has increased in some sectors, the stark fact remains that we are not self sufficient in such staples as rice, corn, sugar, poultry, etc and must import several billion dollars worth every year to meet domestic demand. This by the country that set up the UP College of Agriculture in Los Banos (when the Americans were running this place), and hosts the International Rice Research Institute (also established by the Americans), both of which trained the agriculturists of Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia etc, which ironically now surpass us in agricultural production. Perhaps the weakness of our agriculture is not a paucity of modern technology, but an oversupply of people, because of a galloping population growth rate. In the 1970s, the Philippines and Thailand had more or less the same population size: 45 million. Because it had a population management program all these years, in 2007 Thailand had only 65 million people, while the Philippines had 89 million. By any yardstick of commonsense, it is easier to feed, clothe, house, educate and find jobs for 65 million people than 89 million. For this, President Arroyo must share the blame with Presidents Marcos, Aquino and Estrada, for their wishy-washy attitude towards population management and their fear of offending the Roman Catholic bishops. (Only the Protestant President Ramos dared to defy the bishops on this issue.) In summary, it can be said that President Arroyo�s relative success in managing the economy can be credited largely to the $10-$15 billion windfall from OCW remittances. Therefore it is not accurate to claim that there is no alternative to or substitute for her. In fact it can be said that the increase in workers deployed abroad � about one million a year � is due to her failure, and the failure of her predecessors, to create enough jobs in the domestic economy, forcing millions of Filipinos to seek employment abroad. This means that she can be replaced by such reasonably qualified wannabes as Mar Roxas, Manuel Villar, Richard Gordon, Loren Legarda, or Panfilo Lacson � even by Governor Fr. Ed Among Panlilio or Antonio Meloto � and the economy would still chug along at least at the same pace as it does today, as long as whoever succeeds her enjoys the $10-$15 billion windfall from workers� remittances. The $64,000 Question is: who among the actual or potential contenders can provide the MORAL LEADERSHIP that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has so spectacularly failed to provide. ***** Reactions to [email protected]. Other articles in www.tapatt.org and in acabaya.blogspot.com OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �GMA�s Successes� Tony, My answer to your $64,000.00 Question at the end of this article is - Governor Fr. Ed Among Panlilio. Bert Peronilla - an avid reader, (by email), Jan 17, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Thank you for the article. While GDP grew under PGMA so did poverty rise to unprecedented levels. Our biodiversity and natural capital has been destroyed and has become unstainable. With her move to s mine the countries mineral resources at the expense of biodiversity and our rich natural capital our economy will collapse. Already the signs are there. The findings of the UNIPCC on Global Warming has not been adopted by the government. (Do you know of any government that has adopted it? ACA) Development and GDP is paramount to her legacy and for what and Who? The IMF-World Bank has dictated policy for this administration. Never in our history have we had so many poor, so little hope, so much crime, so much abuse of human rights, so many silent citizens who just live from hand to mouth. We have NO GNH-Gross National Happiness. We are a nation who's citizens want to leave the country. Our moral fiber is gone and the country has been sold to the highest bidder. The perception is that crime does pay. And our people and children are adopting this. The end of the real Filipino Patriots who will stay and die in our beloved Philippines . The numbers mean nothing to us. We have no food but GMOs. We are short of water and clean air. Our natural capital is degrading. Like Rizal,s Ultimo Adios. Farewell my beautiful Country. Best, Tony M. Claparolls, (by email), Jan. 17, 2008 (You sound like you are about to commit suicide. Are you serious? ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, You are exactly right that we are not necessarily laggards when it comes to Agricultural Science and Technology. In fact, we are hosting a world-class research institution dedicated to rice research in IRRI, at Los Banos. The problem is our humongous population ( 89 million), which any cutting edge technology cannot neutralize. It is exacerbated by our relatively small land area as compared with those rice exporting neighbors( Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia etc), which has vast tracks of lands planted to rice and other crops. See a map, and you will see the vast cartographical difference in size between the Philippines , and Thailand for example. I don't know why the clergy and the rest of the reactionary wing of the Church cannot see this. Can you clarify, why they cannot see? (It is based on the false premise that the Church never changes its doctrinal position. In actual fact, it has. But that�s another story. ACA) Other than the Morality aspect, I want to pose a question to those presidential wannabes: Who among you has the balls to buck the Church when it comes to population issues and other secular matters ? The one with the balls, gets my vote. Sincerely yours, Auggie Surtida, (by email), Tigbauan, Iloilo , Jan. 17, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I agree with you completely. Here (below) is a related article that might be of interest to you. I e-mailed it to one of the leading newspapers but I think the article did not interest its editors, or, it was buried in the hundreds of e-mails. Or, they are still considering it for publication. I proposed two Balikbayan Villages to Malacanang and they are being studied. This afternoon, two key people of former President F. Ramos met with my group to discuss the 44-hectare Balikbayan Village in Fort Bonifacio . The much smaller Balikbayan Village is in historic Kawit, Cavite . Let us dream about making the Philippines the retirement capital of the world. More than 22 years ago, we dreamed of kicking out Marcos. A sympathetic friend, also a colonel, advised me not to bang my head against the wall. When EDSA I succeeded, we just smiled at each other the first time we met after the peaceful People Power. More power to you. Col. Hector (Tarzan) Tarrazona (Ret.), (by email), Jan. 17, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony Meloto has the moral leadership to lead the country as its president considering that his achievements to help the poorest of the homeless poor are much more than all of the presidential wannabes put together. Cesar M. de los Reyes, (by email), Jan. 17, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww True but she's smarter than them on economics and planning... Let alone the international outlook and great with ambush interviews. Period. re: The $64,000 Question is: who among the actual or potential contenders can provide the MORAL LEADERSHIP that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has so spectacularly failed to provide? Answer: Tony Meloto - for president; Fr. Ed Panlilio - for vice-president OR Fr. Ed Panlilio - for president; Tony Meloto - for vice-president ****** Filipinos should try this tandem. Flatly better than Erap and any 2010 presidential wannabes ***** This tandem is powerful and popular! And people know there's positive result aftwards that will catapult our nation higher than any Philippine government. The economic and transparency will overshadow the population issues. Canada and Australia are even scrambling for more population due to vast resources. I know, I know, Philippines is a tiny place for gazillion people but corruption-free government can give more jobs and save the people and country. The Pork Barrel should be monitored in a magnifying glass like the quarry issues in Pampanga. LF, [email protected], Jan. 17, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Between 1983 and 1984, the peso-dollar exchange rate went from an average of 11 to 17 (which if I recall, the actual rate touched something like 21), not 20 to 60. The rate has never reached 60 pesos to a dollar. You can see this statistics at this website: http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/statistics_online.asp Robby Villabona, (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, I agree with you in your analyses. The more OFWs leaving the country, the more dollar remittance politicians and government officials can steal. That is why they are doing everything to stay there, including killing those who oppose their ambitions. This does not include the value of door-to-door boxes at the minimum of $300/per box, the balikbayan tourism dollars at an average of $3,000 to $5,000/per person when they go home to visit their families. Also of the investments they make in small business and the houses they buy or built for their families. Above this, the immigrants 30 years ago are retiring staying in the Philippines for 4 to 6 months to avoid the bitter winters. At only $1,000 a month for six months is $6,000. Multiply this by the thousands who are coming, that is a lot of money. I have also seen many retirees from foreign countries married to Filipinas who love the weather and the people and would rather spend their last years in the Philippines than the cold country they came from. Labor, food, shelter are cheap there, people understand English, hospitable, friendly. So no matter who the leader will be, crook or not, the Philippines will progress. Hopefully we get an moral, competent leader with a great vision who can inspire and motivate our people to greatness, someone who does not claim all the good things that are happening to herself/himself. Rodel J. Ramos, (buy email), Toronto , Canada , Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Sir, Good day for reading a nice article. However, may I point out that the power outages at the end of Pres. Aquino's term was due to the mothballing of the entire NAPOCOR 25 year plan, not just the nuclear power plant. Aboitiz purchased gas turbines (in Sucat and Bataan ) to make up for the shortfall. I visited a working Calaca power plant when I was a student in 1988. But Masinloc was one of the plants affected by the scrapping of the NAPOCOR plan. It was FVR who put Masinloc back on the program. Keep writing Sir ! Robbie Tan, (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww This is an excellent, well thought-out piece. Mayo (Mario Antonio C. Lopez), (by email), Makati City , Jan. 18,. 2008 Assistant Dean, Center for Development Management Asian Institute of Management wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, You are absolutely right that the dismal economic growth in 1992 and 1993 during the term of then President Fidel V. Ramos was due to the Power Crisis that was brought about by the inept Aquino Administation. In fact, the adverse effect of the daily 8-hour power outages was already reflected in 1991 with the negative growth of 0.6% as compared to 4.4% GDP growth in 1990. Prior to the December 1989 coup of Col. Gringo Honasan and Capt. Danilo and the subsequent Power Crisis, the Philippine economy grew by an impressive 6.8% in 1988 and 6.2% in 1989. Again, you are correct that the Power Crisis in the early 90s was caused by the mothballing of the 620-megawatt (MW) Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) and the absence of a replacement capacity that the Calaca and Masinloc power plants of 300 MW each were supposed to provide. However, the decision to mothball the BNPP was not a "concession to the anti- US bases and anti-nuclear agitation of the Communist movement." It was a decision reached by Presdient Aquino and her Cabinet whose members unfortunately have No Technical background. They were mostly lawyers, businessmen and economists. (But, Rick, the loudest oppositors to the nuclear plant was an organization called Nuclear-Free Philippines [or something like that] and it was led by Communists. Cory and her Cabinet were reacting to their pressure. ACA) When then NAPOCOR President Ernie Aboitiz was making his presentations to the members of Cory's Cabinet on the BNPP issue, it was probably only DoTC Secretary Rainerio "Ray' Reyes who has engineering background. Ray Reyes later told me that there was any appreciation on Ernie's presentations. One funny thing he told me was then Executive Secretary Macaraig (a lawyer) was just eating a lot of peanuts during the deliberations ("Kain lang ng kain ng mane!). The "commissioning" of the Calaca and Masinloc power plants were Not "blocked by environmentalists." Rather, the actual construction was delayed due to the non- issuance of the Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC) by the DENR leadership headed by then Sec. Fulgencio Factoran, Jr and his ilk at the Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) headed the Director Delfin Ganapin. The DENR sat on the ECC applications of these power plants for several years. It was only when the Power Crisis emerged that the President Aquino acted swiftly and exempted the two plants from the inane ECC requirements. Best regards. (But, Rick, bureaucrats do not sit on papers for several years for no reason at all. They were reacting to pressure from environmentalists, of whom Dir. Ganapin himself was one. ACA) Rick B. Ramos, (by email), Santa Rosa , Laguna, Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr. Abaya, This is one of the best columns written on the subject. Sincerely, Gabriel Ripoll Jr., (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. You are correct that the economy performed better under President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo than her predecessors since President Marcos. And there's no doubt that this is one of the most significant factors why the opposition cannot topple her governance. And despite noise about destabilization, PGMA will finish her term of office. The country is now reaping the fruits of Arroyo administration's Medium Term Development Plan as elucidated to us by GMA's chief economist - former NEDA Director General Romulo Neri in his speech before Pasay Rotarians many years back. But it is also fitting to honor one of the country's humble servants with a brilliant mind - then Labor Minister Blas F. Ople who was the architect of the government's policy on migrant workers and Labor Code. Ople's exceptional foresight and networking with his counterparts abroad, particularly in Middle East countries during the 20-year reign of President Ferdinand E. Marcos should also be recognized for the influx of US$14.7 billion remittances in 2007 from OFWs now known as the Global Filipinos. In my recent tete-a-tete with former Senate employee Jesus Gaspay, Mano Jess to his friends and a former aide to Sen. Arturo Tolentino, Marcos and Ople in that order, proudly declared over a cup of coffee that the latter was an intellectual giant. A rennaisance man in governance, Ople's government posts spanned from the administrations of Magsaysay (Special/Technical Assistant to Labor & Agriculture Secretary, 1954-57;) Marcos (SSS Administrator -1965 & Labor Secretary 1967-78 & concurrent Minister & Assemblyman 1978-1986); a Pres. Corazon Aquino appointee as Commissioner who helped drafted the 1987 Constitution, Ramos & Estrada as a Senator and GMA as Secretary of Foreign Affairs under whose watch the country was elected in the UN committee protecting the global migrant workers. Ngunit higit sa lahat, dapat nating pasalamatan at bigyang halaga ang ating mga kababayan na namumuhunan ng dugo at pawis sa ibang bayan upang maitawid ang kanilang mga mahal sa buhay sa kahirapan at kawalang oportunidad na kumita ng sapat para sa pabahay, edukasyon, pagkain at kalusugan sa sarili nilang bayan. Long live the Global Filipinos!!! Niel Enrile Narca, (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww This column could at least balance the hard line oppositionists we have in the country. I personally believe that there are victories under her term. Your column even failed to mentioned that some of the outbreaks in Asia , Birdflu and others, were contained by the govt. There were hits of the viruses in the country, but nothing compared to the neighboring countries. Another is the improving landscape of Metro Manila, with the proper order on buses along EDSA, courtesy of Bayani Fernando. Totoo naman eh. Actually, good things happened under her administration. A big however, is that the issues about her are really DAMNING. Ok lang sana kung magkamali eh, but to be corrupt is a totally different thing. Also, together with her allies, was the bastardization of the congress, military and the judiciary. Buti nga, d nanalo ang mga ulol nila Pichay and Mike Defensor eh. I just hope that GMA will use the final years as good epitaphs of her presidency. Yun nga lang, wla din political will ang ale. Mike Delgado, (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, If it is moral leadership that yuo are looking for, please omit the existing list of senators, although I may consider Richard Gordon because of his proven ability to inspire people to be stake holders in the community's future - the subic experiment. I would have liked Mar Roxas but his recent populist pronouncements on the EVAT sickens me to the gut. You must put some weight on GMA's headstrong proclivity for raising the tax effort. She identified the fiscal balance as a key result area that the financial world scrutinizes so she zoomed in on that, ignoring all other criticism. For me, that takes guts. None of the past presidents have given the revenue picture more focus than her. She should even do more in this area by deploying a more resources to tax collection. This country can only move forward if we remove the disincentive to productivity represented by the income taxes, i.e. cut the income tax and do not relent on consumption taxes. The reason Mar Roxas's comments sickens me is the EVAT on petrol benefits Expedition or SUV riding people like him more than it does the genral public, PISTON and other jeepney drivers notwithstanding. If we start monkeying around to subsidize petrol prices relative to other goods and services in the economy, we will only dig a deeper economic pit to sink our mess. The price system is the most efficient and fair mechanism to distribute resources, be it petrol or food prices. The treatment should be equal or we all die. The way I see it, if we have another populist president, we will all perish. Yes, we need moral leadership but let it not be without the adequate intelligence quotient and economic understanding. Gus Cosio, (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, You gave credit to GMA on her handling of the country's GDP yet criticized the modest gains made by her administration on certain parts that make up the Gross Domestic Product. You also raised the issue of moral leadership. In life you win some and you lose some. In my mind moral authority or moral leadership is quite difficult to define. Show me a heroic leader who has taken his people away from the path of "politics without principle, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice" On what standards could we judge a person then that he or she is a moral leader? Dr. Nestor P. Baylan, (by email), New York City , Jan. 18, 2008 (By your stratospheric definition of moral leadership, not even Jesus Christ or Lee Kwan Yew might pass muster. I will settle for someone who does not steal the people�s money, does not lie to his/her own publics, and does not cheat in elections. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Your- "This means that she can be replaced by such reasonably qualified wannabes as Mar Roxas, Manuel Villar, Richard Gordon, Loren Legarda, or Panfilo Lacson � even by Governor Fr. Ed Among Panlilio or Antonio Meloto � and the economy would still chug along at least at the same pace as it does today, as long as whoever succeeds her enjoys the $10-$15 billion windfall from workers� remittances." Oh yeah sure!! If it does not make any difference at all as to who (among those I named. ACA) will run the country as long as the $10-$15billion windfall is on-- then why even bother replace her? (In case you haven�t heard, there are such things as constitutional term limits, which she has been deviously trying to circumvent since 2006. ACA) And talking about " Moral Leadership"-- which political leader possess such ABSOLUTELY "lily white" nebulous qualification? AND just "what and whose" standard of morality will be applied as the yardstick? Yours? (Of course, in my column, it will be MY standard of morality. There is nothing to prevent you from starting your own column and articulating YOUR own standard of morality. ACA) Ay yay yay!!!!-- Okay it seems that GMA just can't do anything right (Don�t you know how to read? I just gave her full credit for the success of the call centers and partial credit for moderate success in tourism. ACA)-- so what about you? (Well, what about YOU?) Why don't you run for the presidency of the country? You are a Filipino of legal age, educated, seemingly erudite enough to write newspaper columns, highly opinionated on how things should be run and I suppose have the qualification to give the "moral leadership" that you are asking for.from GMA and other candidates! Go for it and let's see your mettle! I might even vote for you!!! Alexander Po, (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I think you are the first GMA critic to give her credit for the success of her economic program. All the rest look for concrete evidence - "why do people not feel it?" It may not be a huge success as you rightfully pointed out that a big factor for her high percentage is the OFW remittances. Nevertheless, the results will prove she is indeed working and trying to lift the economy up. GMA's predecessors did not fare as high because they, with the probable exception of Cory, were more concerned with how much they could gain from the office than how the office could help the people. GMA need not worry about that. Mike has it taken care of. As far as moral leadership, again, I think it was only Cory who had it. All the others, past, present, and future sorely lacked, lack, and will be lacking that golden quality. I hope somebody proves me wrong. [email protected], Jan. 18, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I agree with your assessment regarding Arroyo's economic "success" and the fact that she is not indispensable, contrary to what has been touted by her supporters. One of the legacy of the Marcos regime is the OCW phenomenon, an economic policy to solve unemployment at home. It was a temporary measure then, but has become a permanent policy of this government. Bagong Bayani? This is just a government spin to hide the fact that it has failed to provide jobs for millions of Filipinos. The OCWs choose to go abroad and leave their families behind in order to provide their families with a better life. They did not work abroad because they were being patriotic, they work abroad for economic reasons! I hope that the next president will be someone who would really consider the plight of the Filipino first before their own vanity and pride. It could either be Roxas or Villar, Both are economic wizards in their own right. I am leaning more towards Villar because of his success in his business enterprises, but Roxas works as well for me. Zeny Ligan, (by email), Cebu City , Jan. 18, 2008 UP Cebu wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, I'm not so sure I will credit GMA with economic successes even if she is a PhD economist. She is lucky. Staggering amounts of OFW remittances flood the Philippines improving our BOP and current account and of course the consequent lowering of interest rates, costs of imports, etc. The inflow can also be seen from a negative perspective. That the country is doing so bad under GMA that Filipinos would rather go overseas and leave their families (leading to a host of other problems actually too) although many others migrate altogether. The EVAT is killing the small income earners! Massive corruption courtesy of leadership by mis-example is draining what would have been developmental funds benefiting the marginalized masses and discouragingforeign investors. Yes, the economy is growing but it is despite GMA and not because of her. I still think she should have resigned and then she would have led by good example -- becoming a moral leader than an immoral one. For some who say it would have been worse without her and with Noli, I say: "We do not know that!" Plus, I am a Christian and I believe moral values come first before pragmatic cunning when it comes to achieving our goals. In fact, to me the preservation of our values is the end-state and thus it includes the methods we use. Machiavellianism is a lion's den. Regards, Dr Dennis Acop, (by email), Jan. 18, 2008 US Military Academy �83 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I am intrigued by your conclusion that GMA deserves full credit for the success of Call Centers. Call centers have thrived in the Philippines because we can speak English with a fairly neutral accent, have a good number of college graduates with no alternative employment opportunities, and our cost of labor is much lower than in developed countries. Ergo, GMA taught the Filipinos to speak English, made sure that they could not find other jobs, gave them a college education, and managed the economy so that workers could not be paid decent wages. I like your columns, Mr. Abaya, for their sobriety, but can you please tell me what specific steps did GMA undertake to develop call centers? I have been involved in the industry and as far as I could tell, she was not a positive factor in any investment decision. Alfredo de Borja, (by email), Jan. 19, 2008 (President Arroyo�s immediate predecessor, Joseph Estrada, was clueless about information technology. It was GMA�s Midterm Development Plan that specifically focused on IT as one of three areas for development. That it actually succeeded was not due to chance. I believe in command responsibility. If we criticize her for all the failures that happen during her term, we should in fairness give her credit for the successes. It does not mean GMA taught the Filipinos to speak English, etc and all your sarcastic add-ons. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, As usual, a good report on a comparison of the performances of recent Philippine Presidents. Just a few minor points: 1. The increase in OFW remittances may also have been because of (a) improved bank efficiency and reduction of cost to transfer funds resulting in the reduction of funds being sent here thru the "padala" system. (b) improvement of the peso vs. dollar encouraged the OFW to send more $s to the beneficiaries 2. It would be interesting to see how the Philippine GDP performance during those periods you mentioned compared to those of our ASEAN neighbors. A case in point is during the Asian crisis, the Philippines had performed better than a number of its neighbors. 3. I wonder if ASEAN, particularly the Philippines , has shown an improvement in the Gini coefficient--a ratio income for the poorest and richest sectors of society (Split by Decision -- Newsweek Magazine Nov. 12, 2007 issue). My guess is it has deteriorated. Regards Fritz Maramba, (by email), Jan. 19, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I am one of your faithful readers. And I agree with you in many of your articles. That is why you are one of the most read opinion-makers in our country. Thank you, Tony, for your well written articles. Many of them are still in my Inbox. On the subject re: GMA successes: In our country, when something goes wrong, we blame GMA. The political opposition and the mass media are quick to point the blame to GMA when anything negative is reported to the media, especially the sensational ones. But when we read good news or positive development such as higher GDP growth, tourism boom, record highs in the financial fronts, bigger foreign investments, Phil currency appreciation, stock market bull runs, real estate boom, bigger tax collection, lower budget deficit, success in call center business, successful privatization, large infrastructure development projects, new highways, better ports (except NAIA 3) hundreds of bridges, etc. opinion makers and the opposition look the other way. They would say "No, it's not GMA who did it. She is not responsible for it. It's just a coincidence. She had nothing to do with it. That one is too small." But Aquino, Ramos and Erap were not able to do as much during their watch. Of course they have their own reasons for their failure. But GMA did better despite more noisy opposition and antagonistic press. Aquino failed despite the affection showered on her by our people, the press, and the international community. Ramos produced little growth despite of his machismo and hard work. On Erap's term - whatever little growth produced in this period, we know its Angara and Zamora who were running the government because Erap was either drunk or busy collecting jueteng money. So let's not talk about his term. His term is the most embarrassing period in our history. His conviction in his plunder case speaks well of his term. The OCW contribution is about $14B to $15B. It is much higher than previous years because (1) more qualified Filipinos are working abroad. And they earn higher income.(2) Because of the appreciation of the Phil peso, OCW's have no choice but to send their dollars home and exchange with Phil peso, causing the peso to appreciate even more. (3) And this process is now is done thru the modern banking system and not thru the black market. The black market has no business when the peso appreciates. (4) GMA started the Peso appreciation after the EVAT law was successfully passed, despite strong opposition from the opposition politicians, activists, and the opinion makers/doomsayers in the mass media. (The appreciation of the peso is due largely to the weakening of the US dollar, not to the EVAT. ACA) The success of the call center business is not a small one. Its a $4B industry and still growing fast. Its multipier effect on the economy cannot be underestimated. It is one of the main drivers of real estate and telecom booms in recent years. Taxes from these call center companies, their workers, and their building owners are significant contributors in the government coffer. On Filipino migrating to other countries - lets not attribute this to GMA's "failure". For example, New Zealand (where I live now) is a first world economy, but New Zealand citizens/residents also migrate to Australia and USA . There is much shortage of workers here due to brain drain. I am not so sure of the figure, but some Kiwis say about a million NZ citizens (out of 4 to 5 million) are working and living in other countries. Last year alone, more than 74,000 residents (about 2% of 4 million) left to work abroad. Many Japanese, Koreans, Australians and European are also working abroad, and we don't say that their governments failed them. This is the effect of globalization. There are now 8 to 10 million Filipinos (out of 90 million) living abroad. People and capital are now globalized. My humble opinion is that if more and more Filipinos participate in this globalization of labor, our people and country will benefit so much. Nationalism issue? I don't think we are less nationalistic than the Japanese if we work abroad. Even nationalistic Japanese, Koreans, Kiwis, work abroad. It's the salary, and nothing else. (Do not forget that the vast majority of Japanese, Koreans, Australians and Europeans who work abroad are expat executives of multinational corporations. On the other hand, the vast majority of Filipinos working abroad � who earn only US $300 to $600 a month � do so because they could not find good-paying jobs in our domestic economy. (And they could not find good-paying jobs in the domestic economy because of the failure of Philippine national leaders, starting with Ferdinand Marcos, to build an export-oriented economy as were built by the leaders of South Korea , Taiwan , Hong Kong and Singapore in the 1970s and 1980s; and by the leaders of Malaysia and Thailand in the 1980s and 1990s. See my article Why We Are Poor (Dec. 14, 2004): http://www.geocities.com/dapat_tapatt/whyarewepoor.html (And do not forget that the Japanese, Koreans, Australians and Europeans working abroad do not make up 10% of their countries� populations. The Filipinos working abroad do. ACA) Sa dami ng magagaling na Pinoy, palaging naming may maiiwan para magpatakbo ng ating mga opisina, mga planta as eskwela. Some have to go out and take advantage of the big salaries abroad and bring home dollars. Our national heroes such as Rizal, Lopez-Jaena , Del Pilar and the Luna brothers, will not be intelligent and enlightened reformist if they did not work and studied abroad. GMA is not a perfect president, but she is hardworking, intelligent and resilient. It is easier to blame her for the misery of many Filipinos, than to blame ourselves. Successful Pinoys also started from humble beginnings. But they overcome poverty - thru hardwork, entrepreneurship, education, and/or working abroad. Those who are left below the poverty line must also strive to overcome their hardship by working harder, getting an education, and be responsible for themselves and their families. Lets stop our dependence on dole outs, but rely on ourselves more. Charity belongs to the old, the sick and the very young. But able-bodied Pinoys must educate themselves, work and be productive. Then together we can rebuild our country. Of course we need a good leader all the time, but we must do our share as well. Tony, thank you for your time in reading my long letter. Your good articles inspire me to write a long letter like this. I hope this is welcome. For me, you the best Pinoy columnist. May God bless you, our country more. Ody Lumanglas, (by email), Auckland , New Zealand , Jan. 19, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony - You are right. Without MORAL LEADERSHIP, our people will continue to emigrate to earn their living. President Magsaysay was not as brillant as other presidents before and after his short tenure, but he provided moral leadership and people were willing to die for him and his ideas. Today this qualities could provide the engine for change in our land. Now we ask ourselves: Who among the Wannabes aspiring for the Presidency can provide this basic values? Let us find out if our people will learn from their past mistakes. But foremost, the so-called middle class must come forward and make their choice without fear or favor, because the future generations of our people will find them wanting otherwise. Jose Regino, (by email), Zamboanga City , January 19, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: I do hope that Senator Pimentel's statement that "PGMA's days are numbered" proves to be prophetic. She has made the lives of a majority of the Filipinos miserable with her harsh economic policies (specially the imposition of EVAT on gas products and electricity). The only sector of society benefiting from her ruthless administration is the business sector, specially her cronies and admirers. Her megalomaniac belief that she is the "best president the Philippines ever had" coupled with her callousness to poverty and hardship having been born with a silver spoon does not make her a good leader. A good leader must be sensitive and compassionate to the cry of the masses. I do believe that she has no intention of leaving the presidency beyond 2010 which is why she is persistently pushing for a Con-Con to mangle the Constitution and perpetuate herself in power as Prime Minister. She has already began her demolition job on Speaker Jose De Venecia who poses a major obstacle to her premiership ambition! God save the Philippines ! Very truly yours, Fernando A. De Sequera Jr., (by email), Jan. 20, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Manong Tony, I just read your January 17, 2008 article. I agree that our economic growth was largely due to the remittances of our OFW's. A number of good friends just returned to Manila after a 5-day tour of Ilokoslavakia, as the late Manong Max would say, and I saw the evidence along the way, especially in La Union, Ilocos Sur and Ilocos Norte. Thanks to the efforts of, among others, the late Ka Blas Ople, one the pioneers in helping our poor brethen in finding jobs abroad during his stint as Labor Secretary during the Marcos regime. There are, however, a number of things that this administration have done that contributed to this growth. I wish that I could enumerate them now but there are more important things that I should attend to. Sa ibang araw na lang. Pit Senyor! God bless. Jerry A. Quibilan, (by email), Jan. 20, 2008 Crusaders for Peace, Prosperity, Unity, and Love wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. The thing is that, Mr. Tony, para kaming ginisa sa sarili naming mantika eh! Dahil sa dami na ng OFW that creates a windfall of remittances which brings to a tremendous appreciation ng Peso against the Dollar. Kaming mga OCW rito sa Saudi Arabia ay bumagsak ang value ng sweldo for as much as 27% na dahil sa continued appreciation ng Peso. What makes it further worst for us ay dahil naka peg up against the Dollar ang Saudi Riyals and the rest of Middle East Countries except Kuwait I think. Sinabayan pa ng inflation rate rito of about 25% this year. Grabeh na ang financial effect sa amin. Our family back home is the one suffering the consequences. I agree of what you�ve stated that �In fact it can be said that the increase in workers deployed abroad � about one million a year � is due to her failure, and the failure of her predecessors, to create enough jobs in the domestic economy, forcing millions of Filipinos to seek employment abroad.� - Thank you, Mr. Tony and More Power to you. Richard A. Rala, (by email), Jeddah , Saudi Arabia , Jan. 21, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Target: 100 Balikbayan Villages in 2012 By Col. Hector (Tarzan) Tarragona (Ret.) Email Address - [email protected] Globalization has made easy the consumers� access to goods and services worldwide. It is a phenomenon that cannot be stopped and a reality we must accept and harness to our advantage. We have already been enjoying the benefits of globalization for decades. If it were not for the 8 million OFWs (overseas Filipino workers) who have been remitting about US$14 billion annually, our economy could have collapsed long time ago. The OFWs and balikbayan deserve the honor and respect of the rest of us Filipinos who have been benefiting, directly or indirectly, from the fruits of their hard work and sacrifices in countries whose people are not always friendly or sympathetic to them. We can never go wrong if we, as a grateful nation, would give our modern-day heroes special attention. The least that we could do for them would be to make their departure and arrival comfortable, hassle-free, inexpensive, and speedy. When they would come home for good we should have a special place for them to retire so that they would enjoy the remaining years of their life and, at the same time, share with us the knowledge, experience, and wisdom they had learned from other countries. It is along the idea of providing efficient services for, and honoring our beloved OFWs and balikbayan that the concept of a Balikbayan Village is being studied by Malaca�ang since November 2007. The first proposed Balikbayan Village project would be in Fort Bonifacio , Taguig City on a 44-hectare area. It would have a one-stop center that would house the extension offices of all government agencies with priority given to those that would be needed to process the papers of Filipinos applying for work abroad. Foreign embassies, travel agencies, airline companies, banks, and local and multinational corporations would also be given priority to have extension offices at the Balikbayan Village . More than 5,000 condominium and condominium-hotel units for permanent residents, transient occupants, and guests would be constructed. There would be restaurants, fine dining areas, fast food center, supermarket, shops, department stores, barber shops, beauty saloons, multi-purpose hall, function rooms, seminar rooms, lecture rooms, chapel, movie houses, medical and dental clinics, and other facilities and amenities. For the lover of sports, the best part of the Balikbayan Village would be an executive golf course with sports facilities and a luxurious clubhouse. In short, the Balikbayan Village would be a self-contained place that would provide all the services and goods needed by the OFWs and balikbayan, businessmen, investors, tourists, retirees, visiting students, and other guests. It would also serve the needs of the people from the provinces coming to Manila to transact business with the government and private corporations. Transacting business or residing at the Balikbayan Village would mean a lot of savings in terms of time, money, effort, and energy consumption. About five to ten minutes from the Manila International Airport , the Balikbayan Village concept in Taguig City could be replicated in 99 strategic places all over the country. At an average cost of P2 billion each for the 99 Balikbayan Villages, the total project cost, excluding real estate but including the P17 billion project cost of the 44-hectare Fort Bonifacio Balikbayan Village, would be P215 billion. This would generate total revenues of about P350 billion in a period of about four years. The impact of the project on the supply of construction materials, labor services, professional services (of architects, engineers, and other professionals), and other goods and services related to the project would be a total business of P860 billion, assuming that the multiplier effect would be four times the construction cost. The P215 billion total cost would build commercial and other facilities including about 100,000 condominium and condominium-hotel units that could accommodate 200,000 retirees and guests at any one time with two persons per room. With 100,000 permanent residents and another 100,000 transient occupants and guests, the above project could be easily filled up from the 8 million OFWs who would opt to retire at the Balibayan Villages. This would mean that 1.25% only of the 8 million OFWs would be needed to fill up their 100,000 capacity share of the 100 Balikbayan Villages. If they would invite some friends and acquaintances from their places of work to retire in the Philippines , the 100,000 units would not be enough. It would be preempting too much if the sources of financing, profitability, marketing strategy, exact location, and viability of the 44-hectare Fort Bonifacio Balikbayan Village Project would be divulged in this paper. The stakeholders were provided copies of the proposal and they know exactly what I am talking about. As of this writing (January 4, 2008) the proposal was referred by Malaca�ang to the Department of National Defense for comments. The retirement business, which is among the businesses hosted by the proposed Balikbayan Villages, could be our country�s niche in a highly competitive global market. The prohibitive cost of retirement in the first world countries would make the Philippines an excellent choice of the Americans, Europeans, Japanese, and other nationalities as their retirement home. Compassionate people, beautiful natural resources, conversance of the English language, and lower cost of services are our competitive edge. If you are a (lonely) Filipino or former Filipino in a foreign land, you could help in preparing and building the Balikbayan Villages by investing your money in them. Then you could opt to retire in your place of birth where the love, care, and concern of your fellow Filipinos could not be matched elsewhere outside the Philippines . As a bonus you would get the best value for your money. You could buy two units, live in one and get income from the other. Or, you could simply visit once a year and let your unit(s) do the earning for you during your absence. With all the problems we are facing as a nation, this is the best time to unite, put our act together, and compete fiercely to get the most benefit from the globalization phenomenon. ****** OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |