 |
 |
| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| GMA�s Enchanted Kingdom By Antonio C. Abaya Written May 28, 2006 For the Standard Today, May 30 issue In an address before the 27th National Conference of Employers at the Manila Hotel last May 23, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo urged the country�s largest private-sector employers to rally behind the government, so that, together, they could achieve a better future for the country and reach the �Enchanted Kingdom� of First World Success. �Let�s stay together. Let�s dream together. And what do I mean by being in the Enchanted Kingdom, we can operationalize that? Let�s be among the countries of the First World in 20 years,� said the President. �As Francis Chua (president of the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce) said, �we�ve shown we can survive.� Now we must compete and then succeed. Then we will be in the Enchanted Kingdom,� President Arroyo said, to laughter from the audience. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, May 24, 2006; Emphasis mine.) It is the closest thing that this country has heard resembling a 20-year vision articulated by its national leader. But why did the audience laugh? Is it because it saw nothing but magical dwarfs in the 20-year horizon leading to that Enchanted Kingdom? It substantiates my suspicion that President Arroyo intends to remain in power as prime minister, beyond the expiry of her non-extendable presidential term in 2010. The ChaChatanooga Choo Choo is being railroaded precisely to serve that purpose. See my articles Prime Minster Gloria? (May 17, 2005) and GMA Forever? (March 28, 2006). Mrs. Arroyo is not the first to try this tack. President Ferdinand Marcos remains the inspirational model for those who want to remain in Malacanang forever. As his second and last presidential term approached its terminus (1973), he declared martial law (in September1972). The communist movement had obliged by staging its riotous First Quarter Storm (in early 1972), thus providing Marcos with the excuse to abrogate the existing Constitution and suspend all civil and political rights. Marcos then railroaded a new Constitution in June 1981 that provided for a shift to a French-model parliamentary system, with himself as all-powerful president, and a convenient and non-controversial toady (Cesar Virata) as prime minister. Even as he lay seriously ill in 1983, Marcos did not provide for his successor, leading to speculation that he was grooming his ambitious wife Imelda (then minister of human settlements) to take over in the event of his death. The return from exile of Ninoy Aquino (and his assassination) in August 1983 can be interpreted as a foolhardy attempt on his part to challenge the pre-arranged succession plan. For his part, President Fidel Ramos, who ruled from 1992 to 1998, was also not content with the six-year single term mandated by the 1987 Cory Constitution. He encouraged a �citizens� movement� called Pirma, to amend the constitution to allow a second six-year term for him, not unlike the so-called People�s Initiative being pushed in 2006 by Sec.Ronnie Puno, coincidentally the mastermind of Ramos� disputed victory in 1992. But Ramos was a gentleman of the Old School, neither as grabbing nor as manipulative as either Marcos or Arroyo, and when Pirma met with wide criticism, he did not press the issue and graciously gave way to the conventional wisdom. As for GMA�s dream of an Enchanted Kingdom in which the Philippines becomes a First World country in 20 years under her leadership, it will remain only a dream. As an economist, she is aware that it took South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore around 20 years of an average of 8% per annum to reach First World status, as I have reminded readers of this space repeatedly whenever we become ecstatic over a 5 or 6% GDP growth rate per annum. The Philippines has never ever experienced a growth rate of 8%, even for one annualized quarter. Because of its huge population, it will take nominally communist, but now �stinking capitalist� China longer than 20 years to reach First World status, but it has been moving fast in that direction, (8 to 12% per annum) much faster and longer than democratic India. After South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, the Asian country most likely to join the First World �soon� is Malaysia. In the 1980s, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad articulated the country�s 2020 Vision, that gave notice to the world that Malaysia intends to become a fully-industrialized country by the year 2020. But that vision did not include Mahathir staying in power until 2020. He retired as prime minister in 2003, after 22 years in that office. But Mahathir had laid the groundwork for achieving that 2020 Vision by developing its manufacturing, exports and tourism industries, by setting up financial safeguards that presciently shielded Malaysia from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, by engaging in social engineering to cultivate positive social values and the �can-do� spirit among Malaysians, by deliberately and aggressively excluding communists from the country�s public life through its Internal Security Act. (See my article Emulating Mahathir, Oct. 06, 2004.) In 2004, Malaysia�s exports, largely of manufactured goods, totaled $123.5 billion, versus only $38.6 billion for the Philippines. In 2005, Malaysia attracted 15 million foreign tourists, versus only 2.6 million for the Philippines. Malaysia is on target for becoming a fully industrialized country by the year 2020. For his part, President Ramos also articulated a vision, Philippines 2000, in which this country would be a NIC, a newly industrialized country, by the year 2000. It was a subtle selling gimmick for a second term for him. But it was a clearly unattainable goal, partly because our entry into the exports market was very late, crowded out by the entry of China, and partly because President Ramos, influenced by economists Jesus Estanislao and Bernardo Villegas of the Opus Dei, foolishly embraced free trade and globalization more eagerly than, and ahead of even, the more industrially advanced South Korea and Taiwan. Whatever few industries we managed to build in the 1970s and 1980s were overwhelmed by the products of more aggressive countries, as we naively opened our doors to them, ruining domestic producers and throwing hundreds of thousands of Filipino workers out of work. It was goodbye to NIC-hood even before we managed to taste it. Will Gloria do better with her Enchanted Kingdom? I doubt it. Her economic program is anchored on agriculture, telecom and tourism, with no mention at all of industrialization. While her government has achieved moderate success with proliferating call centers and a surge in tourist arrivals, the country remains import-dependent even in such agricultural basics as rice, corn, some vegetables and sugar. And every year, some one million Filipinos leave for jobs abroad that they cannot find here, to join the ten million already deployed there. With her ideological commitment to free trade and globalization and her indifference to manufacturing, the export of labor is President Arroyo�s preferred passport to that Enchanted Kingdom where we will live and work happily ever after. Abroad, not here. ***** Reactions to [email protected]. Other articles since 2001 in www.tapatt.org. Current articles also in tonyabaya.multiply.com and tapatt.yahoogroups.com OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
| Reactions to �GMAs Enchanted Kingdom� Why wait for another 20 years when Malaysia was able to do it? GMA should focus on industrialization and not in this foolish agriculture. The agricultural sector is no-match in the power of industrial machines! Put the machine of industrialization ahead and agriculture will simply follow. Why haven't we learned in the history of nations? A rapid industrialization is possible if only our leaders can unite. Rapidly industrialize our economy and culture will follow. Those who will oppose industrialization should be charged with treason. For the very survival of a country is anchored in one's effort industrialization. Non-industrialization of our economy is equivalent to mass starvation and national suicide. There is still time to reverse this downward, un-necessary trend. AL Jose Leonidas, [email protected] Faculty Member, Miriam College May 30, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww For the Philippine market and its competitiveness to the global market, the cost of industrialization may far out weigh the benefits for instance waste management and health of the community which were less considered in the past. Have a glimpse of the mining industry and the waste they created before and after abandoning their mines. With China's low labor cost, I am skeptical whether the Filipino can compete other than a massive investment in automation which will be very costly as well. China industrialize with the backing of their lost cost but good engineering however Filipino engineers would rather opt to work as overseas contract workers because not only because they can speak English but prefer a better income and has no confidence in the Philippine government and its system. Nonoy Ramos, [email protected] Pennsylvania, May 30, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, How have you been, apart from such frequent angry missives? I enjoy reading them, I do. But at this point I must urge you to read Gucharan Das' "India Unbound" (Penguin, not available in Manila I am afraid) which tells how India skipped industralisation to be the burgeoning power it is becoming today. It will demolish what you are just prescribing. A different perspective. India should be the model for the Philippines. What a shame, India opened up in 1991, just one year before FVR, and look where it is now. Abby Tan, [email protected] Correspondent from Singapore, May 30, 2006 MY REPLY. It is not correct to say that �India skipped industrialization.� Under Nehru, India pursued a policy of nationalist and statist industrialization since Independence in 1948. That is why and how India became an industrialized country able to manufacture millions of items, from paper clips and safety pins to jet fighter planes, locomotives and nuclear submarines. What India did in 1991 was liberalized the socialist economy to attract foreign and private investments in most economic areas, including manufacturing. If the Philippines were to use India as a model, we should first go through a phase of statist and socialist industrialization before inviting foreigners in, but it is clearly too late for that. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Copy furnished of email sent to seven egroups) If we are to believe Mr. Abaya, bumigay na talaga si Gloria. Kawawa naman.I i hope she does not miss on her psychiatric appointments. Marami namang modern and newfangled non-invasive treatments na available ngayon. The problem is she has to leave malacanang in order to receive the best that modern medicine can offer. I doubt however if she will even take a leave for that. If I know her as well as I know her, she will not risk anything like that because when she wakes up she might find herself be confined next to Erap cell.. Adolfo Paglinawan, [email protected] May 31, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Copy furnished of email sent to eight egroups) Mang "Hindi Politiko Ito" Ado: Si Abaya na kaya ang ipalit natin kay Pandak? Buto kami ni Ngo2 diyan; ano sa tingin ninyo? Pete 111 Domingo Lira, [email protected] May 31, 2006 Adolfo Paglinawan <[email protected]> wrote: if we are to believe mr. abaya, bumigay na talaga si gloria. kawawa naman. i hope she does not miss on her psychiatric appointments. marami namang modern and newfangled non-invasive treatments na available ngayon. the problem is she has to leave malacanang in order to receive the best that modern medicine can offer. i doubt hoewever if she will even take a leave for that. if i know her as well as i know her, she will not risk anything like that because when she wakes up she might find herself be confined next to erap cell wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The Enchanted Kingdom is not a vision, it is a dream, a child's dream and only those who know nothing of the stakes there are could aim for such a childish dream. As if the path to development could be achieved by 'magic'. Clearly, there is no fine road map here to speak of, only words. The Chief Executive hides behind the power of words. And like an Empress without Clothes, gee, the private-sector employees in attendance even agreed, and applauded --- as if the Empress had clothes after all. How brainless and pretentious could an audience be. V. Valenzuela, [email protected] May 31, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The actuation of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on the presentation of the acting secretary of the Department of Education, Usec Hidalgo contradicting the data being presented with regards to the shortages of classrooms and ordering it revised clearly shows though not surprising the kind of "president" this virago is. She is indeed a doctor having doctored the economic figures, crime statistics, poll results and now this. This immoral, incompetent and illigitimate president is a hopeless case. She is no doubt a LIAR, a CHEAT and a THIEF. Master of DECEIT and Queen of HYPOCRITES! The lamentable state of our public school system is no secret but teachers and principals have kept their silence until now. Even the media have made known its disgust by showing TV footage of hallway, stairs, computer room, library and even a toilet being used as classrooms. It is disappointing that an educator like Usec Hidalgo succumbed to the pressure and tantrums of Gloria Macapal Arroyo and trashed TRUTH and PRINCIPLE, It is high time that those in the government mend their ways and stop emulating and patronizing this immoral, incompetent and illigitimate president who is leading our beloved country and people to PERDITION. God Help the Philippines! Narciso Ner, [email protected] Fort Bonifacio, June 01, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww In the Enchanted Kingdom of 5 % annual economic growth, we can only dream of reaching the Sta. Rosa exit within the hour Chipper Santos, rafaelsantosii@!yahoo.com Roxas City, Capiz, June 01, 2006 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thanks, Tony.. I love your articles. Though I am overseas, I read them thru this email or thru the net. I just wish that your tribe increases. Continue on writing about the excesses and the stupidities of GMA's nincoompoops so that the middle classes will complete their enlightenment and move towards freedom. GMA is beginning to act like a crazed primadona, along with her retinue of lapping dogs, their tongues exposed and saliva dripping. These people ought to be exiled somewhere in the Babuyan Islands where they can set up their enchanted kingdoms with lessened effects on us. GMA along with JDV and the rest of their corrupt clique should be banished from the mainland and the rest of the Philippines forever. I believe Tony that it will not be too long before a group of enlightened members of the soldiery and the middle class would rise up and smash this creeping dictatorship. The people have suffered quite a long time now and the only solution is to erase the memory of GMA and her clique from history and setup a revolutionary government preparatory for a constitutional change. This will not be long, Tony as the embers of dissent are beginning to turn like a raging torch. Whatever this government does will only amount to disaster and the only solution is liberation. I am not a Communist. However, most of my friends are beginning to accept this ideology because of GMA. Truly, like Macoy, GMA is the worst security threat this country ever had. Her administration is the biggest single recruiter of potential communists and terrorists in the Philippines. I hope that the US realizes this and, along with the forces of enlightenment, support an ouster. It is not far fetched, as some of my Washington-based friends say, that Manila would turn into a Dili soon. I think Che Guevarra was the one who said that chaos is the mother of change, or something to that effect. I believe that, given the incendiary situation there, chaos will soon be a staple crop. People would rise up and oust this budding dictator. If you have an access with FG, his gang of bigtime operators led by this DOTC undersecretary, tell them to leave as soon as possible. I figured that they can't run away as fast as they can very soon due to their bulging bellies. It will be tooo late for them should the forces ram them. You have a beautiful pen, more expensive than a Montblanc. Let your voice be heard in the four corners of the wind of our Motherland. Abdulrahman Ismail, [email protected] Saudi Arabia, June 04, 2006 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |