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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| GMA or FPJ? By Antonio C. Abaya April 06, 2004 According to the latest public opinion survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS), conducted nationwide March 11 to 19, the presidential race, midway to its finish, is in a statistical tie between President Arroyo and Ronald Allan Poe or FPJ, with the latter ahead by two statistically insignificant points. The results are as follows: FPJ 34.9%, President Arroyo 32.9, Raul Roco 13.1, Ping Lacson 11.5, and Brother Eddie Villanueva 2.4. And the results of an even more recent survey, done by SWS from March 21 to 29, have just been made public: FPJ 32.0%, President Arroyo 31.4, Roco 15.0, Lacson 11.2, and Villanueva 2.8. Compare these with the results of the SWS survey in late February: President Arroyo 31.8, FPJ 30.5, Roco 17.9, Lacson 11.4, and Villanueva 1.8. Combining the three sets of numbers and then averaging them out (since they were all obtained within a period of only about 35 days), one comes up with the following: FPJ 32.5, President Arroyo 32.0, Roco 15.3, Lacson 11.4 and Villanueva 2.3. Looking at these four sets of numbers, we can conclude that Lacson has plateau-ed and is no longer a threat to either GMA or FPJ, Roco is in irreversible decline as he has been since November last year, and Villanueva has shown the most amazing climb up the ratings (180% since November last year), but, at this rate, needs another four or five months to reach even only 10 points. In other words, Roco, Lacson and Villanueva are wasting their time and money in persisting in the campaign. It would be more sensible for them to withdraw and throw their support behind one or the other of the leading contenders, GMA or FPJ. Even if they don�t do so, many of their followers will. Roco is already suffering this kind of defection, and most of his ex-followers seem to have chosen to go for FPJ. It can be assumed that both Roco and Villanueva are intelligent and sensible persons and would not want to see the presidency hijacked by an obvious ignoramus like FPJ. Unlike Vice-President Tito Guingona, who is tending to the future of his own political dynasty and has decided that its future lies with FPJ, neither Roco nor Villanueva has any close relatives running for any office in May and can therefore look at the endgame of the campaign dispassionately and without any self-interest. President Arroyo would do well to court Roco and Villanueva by offering them key positions in the post-May 2004 Cabinet, perhaps positions that have to do with the fight against corruption, which is a major focus of their (Roco�s and Villanueva�s) current campaigns, such as Secretary of Justice or Chairman of the PCGG. Because at this stage President Arroyo needs them more than they need her, Roco and Villanueva should and can extract from her a written guarantee that they will have a free hand to pursue anti-corruption initiatives against even sacred cows like Jose Pidal, Nani Perez, and The Firm, and to accelerate the legal proceedings against the Marcoses and the Ejestradas and their respective cronies, which have effectively been put on hold because of the exigencies of her re-election campaign. If Roco and Villanueva were to extract this guarantee in exchange for their withdrawal in favor of President Arroyo and they succeed in their putative positions in the second Arroyo Government, then they would be establishing themselves as major players in the 2010 elections, whether we shift to the parliamentary, or keep the presidential, system. They could be the main foci of reforms in the second Arroyo Government who can and will hound the re-elected Gloria to make good on her many promises�.or else face the ire of a reinvigorated and resurgent middle-class. That would make their truncated participation in this current campaign meaningful and not a waste of time and money. This scenario is the most hopeful possible development that I can see in this otherwise dreary and depressing political season, made memorable by promiscuous and shameless turncoatism by the competing trapos and by the absence of a clear moral choice for the very top position. As for Ping Lacson, he is to be congratulated for showing the most independence of mind and running the most no-nonsense campaign among the five presidential contenders. He has reiterated his advocacy for a strong program of population control, including the use of artificial methods of birth control, no matter what the Catholic bishops say. In this country, it takes real guts to disagree unequivocally with the bishops, and Lacson has shown that he has those guts, which the four others just do not have. Lacson has also come out categorically in favor of the abolition of the pork barrel. Again, a gutsy position since it would alienate many incumbent or aspiring congressmen and senators from supporting him. Lacson has also deliberately campaigned without the usual panoply of show biz entertainers to draw the squealing masa to his sorties. Perhaps that is the main reason Lacson has been stuck at 11.4 points. Condemned by the bishops, avoided by the trapos and largely ignored by the squealing masa, Lacson wages a lonely and joyless fight. Many independent voters would choose him, but his past notoriety, deserved or undeserved, always gets in the way. Besides, it is now futile. But politics is the art of the compromise. In my column titled �Thinking the Unthinkable,� (Sept. 12, 2002), - archived in www.tapatt.org - I wrote Unthinkable No.1 as FPJ becoming president of this unfortunate country in 2004, and Unthinkable No. 2 as Ping Lacson becoming vice-president, and taking over as the ill-at-ease and inferiority-complexed President Poe resigns after pardoning Erap of the plunder charge. For better or for worse, considering the statistical tie for the lead and the unbridgeable distance for the others, a vote for Roco would be a vote for FPJ, a vote for Villanueva would be a vote for FPJ, a vote for Lacson would be a vote for FPJ. This is not an endorsement of GMA as much as it is a rejection of another showbiz ignoramus who is infinitely worse than the first one. Given the current situation on the ground, it is not impossible that FPJ and Lacson would team up just before April 30, leaving the upper and middle classes little time to organize a response, unless GMA, Roco and Villanueva join forces before the other side does. Someone has to be faster on the draw. That could well decide the outcome of this election. ***** The bulk of this article appears in the April 17, 2004 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �GMA or FPJ?� Dear Mr. Abaya: My take on your article is that Roco, Lacson and Villanueva are not taking away votes from FPJ but from GMA. This election is not about who is a better alternative to PGMA but simply a reaffirmation of the gullibility of the Filipino voters; voters are star struck and "llamadista." I share the same feeling you have that the election of POE is the beginning of the PASSION of the 80 + million Filipino people for the next 6 years unless another EDSA revolution yanks him out in office because of a deteriorating economy and the pardoning of ERAP. Dr. Nestor P. Baylan, [email protected] April 12, 2004 New York wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I agree with you 99%. Poor Roco. But he should be sensible. As Juan Domingo Peron said in movie Evita "politics is the art of the possible". I think GMA will win because FPJ cannot cut into the President's voters who have swelled by defection from Roco (which might include me). Still I am not absolutely sure about what I just said. If there were Roco defectors her numbers should have made her shoot past the Idiot by the percentage decline of Roco. What is your take on this? Don't disseminate it if you think it cheers too much the enemy, just tell me via this channel. Going back to the beginning part of the last paragraph, conversely GMA can cut into the Idiot's supporters because of machine politics. Hardly a thing to cheer about. I take the attitude of many French leftish voters when the race narrowed to Chirac and La Pen: Better the crook than the Idiot (and thug, to boot). Poe nearly beat up a poor waitress in Makati some years back. I read this in a newspaper but not many tok up the subject. More investigative reporting, Newsbreak does something of this but not enough. In America even fake sex laiasons are invented by someone calling himself Sludge (indeed, that is the name he gave himself). Ross Tipon, [email protected] April 12, 2004 MY REPLY. There is no longer any fear of giving comfort to the enemy. The results of the latest Pulse Asia survey and the virtual withdrawal of Roco from the race show that although some of the defectors from Roco�s camp did indeed move over to the FPJ camp, as I had mentioned in the above article, a bigger number of them has moved over to GMA, and more will eventually do so as the significance of Roco�s withdrawal sinks in. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi, Tony. I have noted with sadness your continuing suggestion that Bro. Eddie Villanueva withdraw from his candidacy in favor of GMA and in exchange for an important position in the next GMA administration. Either you have not taken the time to listen to interviews of Bro. Eddie or you just don't hear what he is saying. Personally, I do not believe in GMA and would hate to see the day Bro. Eddie withdraws in favor of her. Bro. Eddie is not seeking a political position and therefore the suggestion that he take a "lower" position" in preparation for a higher position later does not wash.He never wanted to run to begin with and what God has put in his heart to try and do for this country can only be achieved from the Presidency. Even then, six years will not be enough but it will at least get us going in the right direction. It is obvious that no matter how competent our President may be, unless righteousness and justice is restored in this country, we will continue in our downward spiral. And only Bro. Eddie has the moral ascendancy to put us back on track as far as restoring God's righteousness in this nation. In addition to which he is a competent man. Only Bro. Eddie will sit as President with no political baggage and no "utang na loob" thereby enabling him to make the hard decisions that need to be made. Those of us who are passionate about supporting Bro. Eddie - and there are many, many more of us than the surveys indicate - do so because we are fighting for a cause. We are willing to take a stand for what we believe in. Too long have we gone to the polls to vote for the lesser evil - we finally have the opportunity to vote for someone we really believe in and by golly, we are not going to pass up this opportunity. A vote for someone you believe in is never a wasted vote. We are praying that the millions more out there that are seriously considering Bro. Eddie as their 2nd choice, will finally have the courage to take a stand also by election day. Bro. Eddie is offering the people a chance to vote for the kind of leadership we all know we need desperately to turn this country around and we who support his candidacy are doing our best with the meager resources we have to inform the people. But if they choose otherwise, what more can we do? If anyone but Bro. Eddie wins this election, then God have mercy on us all. I hope we have not come to a point in our country today when we can no longer take a stand and make it count. If taking a stand for righteousness in this country has become a totally useless exercise, there where is the hope in this nation? I, for one, refuse to believe, it is hopeless. Regards, Rina Filart April 12, 2004 MY REPLY. I fully understand your feelings about Brother Eddie. And I have neither admiration nor enthusiasm for GMA. But, for better or for worse, only GMA can prevent the presidency from being hijacked by an obvious ignoramus. So my sense of pragmatism tells me to support her, critically, and hopefully with the help of Roco and Villanueva, but even more so if that help is not forthcoming. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww ELECCIONES COLONIALES: "GMA o FPJ" Si. A qui�n vamos a elegir para que mejor sirva los intereses WASP usenses por encima de los intereses filipinos? GGR Elecciones ba ito ng kunyarring pa�gulo natin pero, sa katunayan, pa�gulo na aalaga ng mga intereses ng Kanong WASP bago ang mga intereses ng sangkafilipinuhan? Maniniwala ako na hindi totoo itong hinala kung mapalitan ng Tagalog ang Ingles biang wkang panturo ng sumusunod na pa�gulo natin. Kapag di nagawang Optional ang pagturo dito ng Ingles tulad sa Japon, Korea, China at Viertnam, magkaroon na lang tayo ng kilusan upang maging Estado ng America ang kapuluang ito. O, sana, maski Estado Asociado na lang tulad ng Puerto Rico. Pero, ayaw niyan ng mga amo natin na mga Kanong WASP dahil diyan may pagkukunwari pang elecciones dito. Di ba? Guillermo Gomez-Rivera, [email protected] April 14, 2004 MY REPLY. Maski naman magkaroon ng kilusan dito na maging estado ng Amerika ang Filipinas, hindi naman tatanggapin ng mga WASP na madadagdagan ng 84 milyong kauyamnggi at reklamadorang Pilipino ang kanilang populasyon. Maski na second-class state lamang kagaya ng Puerto Rico. At bakit nais mong maging optional na lang ang Ingles? Dahil sa kakayahan nila sa wikang Ingles, maski na kaunti, pitong milyong Pinoy ay nakahanap ng trabaho sa iba�t ibang bansa at tumatanggap ng magandang sahod.. Tanggalin mo yang kakayahang iyan, ilang milyong Pinoy ang mawawalan ng pag-asa na makahanap ng ganyang kinabukasan at dito nalang mabubulok sa kahirapan? Que barbaridad! Sin Ingles, pues sin trabajo y sin esperanza! OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |