| FPJ: Huwag Magpagamit By Antonio C. Abaya December 31, 2003 Huwag magpagamit sa mga trapo. Huwag magpagamit sa mga komunista. Huwag ding magpagamit sa mga suwapang na kapitalista. Between the trapos, the communists and the greedy capitalists, I would say the trapos are the most immediate and the most insidious corrosive influence in a potential Poe presidency in the sense that they are the ones who are, at this very moment, already singing �Happy days are here again!�, who are at this very moment sharpening their knives and counting their chickens in gleeful anticipation of their return to power on board the FPJ gravy train to Malacanang. So far, Da King has pointedly avoided being seen in public with any of the trapos, except his court jester, Sen. Tito Sotto. He or his advisers specifically told his masa support groups that politicians should be excluded from the Pasay City Astrodome rally last November that fired the first shot of his campaign, and they were. The trapos were also pointedly absent when he declared at the Manila Hotel on Nov. 26 that he was running for the presidency. And finally when he told a news conference at the Westin Plaza Hotel on Dec. 22 that he was accepting the draft of the Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino to be its official standard bearer for the May 2004 elections, it was, as the Philippine Daily Inquirer (Dec. 23) reported, �without fanfare, without drama, and without any politicians in tow.� Ito ba ay totohanan, o pakitang tao lamang, FPJ? Is this for real, or just a maneuver to win pogi points with the middle class, many of whom are regurgitatingly sick and tired of the trapos, especially those trapos who thrived during the Marcos, Ramos, Erap and Arroyo years, which just about includes every single rotten apple in the barrel. If this is a deliberate Poe policy that he will consistently pursue in his putative administration, then he deserves a second look. For it is the trapos, with their mercenary attitude towards public office, with their multi-tentacled neo-feudal family dynasties, with their contempt for the rule of law whenever it runs counter to their own selfish agendas, with their unprincipled, promiscuous and opportunistic alignments and realignments in pursuit of the fatted calf�.it is the trapos, more than any other single group in our political culture, who have given liberal democracy such a bad name in this country. I also recall an earlier statement from Poe, largely ignored by media, that in the run-up to the May elections he would not campaign for any politicians. If, by pointedly keeping his distance from these trapos, Poe is able to break their stranglehold on our politics, then that in itself would be a major qualitative change that the most cynical members of the middle class have despaired of ever seeing in their lifetimes. Poe would be the only presidential contender among the five declared candidates who would be striking a distinct anti-trapo posture. The others are not able to assume this stand, some because they are themselves trapos of the first ordure, or, if they are not, they are totally dependent on trapos for their life support systems. Only Poe has sufficient popularity with the masa to be in fact independent of the trapos even in his own coalition. He does not owe anything to the trapos; the trapos owe everything to him. He does not need the trapos to win; the trapos need him to stay afloat. But can Poe swing it? Can he maintain his distance from the trapos all throughout the campaign and, if he wins, into his administration? That remains to be seen. It is acknowledged that his anti-trapo posture has been more instinctive than ideological. It should be up to his brain trust to craft the ideological underpinnings for this stance. Poe should consider choosing a prominent non-trapo as his running mate, such as Supreme Court Chief Justice Hilario Davide, Jr. Or, if he declines again, Haydee Yorac or Nandy Pacheco or Solita Monsod. His cousin Mahar Mangahas would no doubt have other non-trapo nominees in mind. The idea is to win over to his side legions of the middle class who have become thoroughly disillusioned with Gloria Arroyo, do not consider Ping Lacson a moral choice, and are not excited by Raul Roco or Brother Eddie; who have despaired over the future of this country because of decades of misrule by the trapos and who have abandoned these shores in droves and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future unless there is a qualitative change in our collective life. Poe can arguably become president solely on the basis of his popularity with the masa, but he needs the middle class to make it work. It is the middle class that supplies not only the entrepreneurs and other risk-takers, but also the professionals and the intellectuals, the managers and the supervisors, the visionaries and the writers, the poets and the artists, without whose dynamic and creative interaction no collection of millions of individuals can become a nation. Happy New Year!***** The bulk of this article appears in the January 10, 2004 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �FPJ: Huwag Magpagamit Dear Mr Abaya, Given the seasoned politicians who pushed FPJ to run it is highly doubtful that he can keep those politicians at bay. As I pointed out in my previous reply the characters that FPJ portrayed in his movies were laid back persons who were pushed to act only in defense of himself and his loved ones. He was never a crusading type of person that a leader is supposed to be. If those characters is a reflection of the real FPJ then we will be back to same condition again of being ruled by trapos. Better to evaluate which of the trapos are the lesser evil and be realistic in our expectation. Let us be honest to ourselves about our expectations of our government officials. Outside the middle class government officials are expected to be Godly perfect and can do everything instantly for us. I say enough of this instant mentality particularly outside the middle class. Jorge Matanguihan, [email protected] January 01, 2004 ..................................................................... Dear Mr. Abaya : At the request of a mutual friend, Archie Lacson, you included me in the mailing list for advance copies of your articles. I thank you. I did comment that I regarded you as "one of the few remaining respected, honorable voices in the wilderness of Philippine envelopmental (and worse) journalism". It seems however that your queries in your article which is still to be published on 10 January, to quote pertinent portions of the article : "Ito ba ay totohanan, o pakitang tao lamang, FPJ? Is this for real, or just a maneuver to win pogi points with the middle class.... regurgitatingly sick and tired of the trapos, especially those trapos who thrived during the Marcos, Ramos, Erap and Arroyo years, which just about includes every single rotten apple in the barrel"; and "If this is a deliberate Poe policy that he will consistently pursue in his putative administration......." have been pre-empted and rendered moot and academic by FPJ and/or his court jester and/or his secret advisers, with the inclusion of JPE and MDS in his senatorial line-up. Can any be more trapo than the foregoing duo? It should therefore not come as a surprise anymore to see, when the rest of the senatorial line-up is finally announced, an equally regurgitated conglomerate of, to borrow your beautiful term : "trapos, with their mercenary attitude towards public office, with their multi-tentacled neo-feudal family dynasties, with their contempt for the rule of law whenever it runs counter to their own selfish agendas, with their unprincipled, promiscuous and opportunistic alignments and realignments in pursuit of the fatted calf" I am one of the middle class whom u write about - and together with those who are not among "the most cynical", I still want to be able to do whatever is possible to keep my family and others from totally despairing.... and from asking : MAY PAG-ASA PA BA ANG ATING BAYAN? But what can we do? Can we really do something that will effect any change - no matter how minimal, at least for a start? Respectfully, ANTONIO B. ELICA�O, [email protected] December 31, 2003 MY REPLY. Nothing can be done right now. But my gut feel is that something will happen before May 2004 that will require the active participation of the middle class. And I do not mean the salvation or preservation of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. ........................................................................................... (Through the kompil2 egroup) POE is a stooge for the Marcoses and Danding Cojuangco. He is Erap's ticket to freedom. If he wins, can you imagine who would actually run this country? I am going to stick to my plan of committing the sin of omission. Star Wars, [email protected] January 01, 2004 ......................................................................................... Dear Mr. Abaya, A friend sent me your Dec.31 article by e-mail, and it hit home, being one of those who doesn't know whom to vote for this May. Ping is totally out of the question. I'm curious about Brother Eddie, though in principle hesitate to vote for a "religious" person since I believe in separation of church and state. I'm very disappointed with Gloria, and not totally sold on Raul, both of whom I knew as a colegiala (was then impressed with both of them. Also knew Mike Arroyo that same period, and even when we were still young, already had my misgivings about the kind of adult he would turn out to be.). I admit I'm an intellectual snob, and have problems with school drop-outs, especially actors. I also have an even lower opinion of intelligent trapos who think of power and not patriotism. "Tell me who your friends are, and I'll tell you who you are." This was so true with Erap, and the people surrounding FPJ are the same vipers. I agree with your article, that he has been wise about not showing himself with those trapos. But now I think he has shown how he will act as president by choosing Loren Legarda as his running mate. Here's another person who seemed so promising, but who has proven to be exactly like GMA: burdened by both a greedy husband and a consuming ambition which allows her to stoop to great depths. So now I'm back to Square One. How can I hope that perhaps FPJ will be able to transcend the trapos and the buddies surrounding him? By choosing Loren, he has shown that he will not be able to act independently, and think of the country first and foremost. Nagpagamit si FPJ. Hoping he will change once elected president would be foolish. I'm married to an American and have lived abroad as an expat for many years. When my husband retired and we returned to Manila, I turned in my US Green Card because I decided to grow old here. I had one-track-mindedly raised our two Fil-Am sons (who have grown up in Singapore, Korea, Spain, Manila, and the USA) to be proud of their Filipino heritage. They are now working in Manila, which they consider their home, and where they hope to raise their children one day. So we're bound to the Philippines by a very conscious and willing choice. We should not be resigned to a bleak future until after the election results are out. But what can we do between now and May, besides pray, moan, and groan? I would welcome a P.S. to your December 31st article. May 2004 be a good year for you, and the Philippines! cheers, lolita delgado fansler, [email protected] January 02, 2004 MY REPLY. You are right. We should not be resigned to a bleak future until after the election results are out. But our �democratic� options are narrowing. My own preferred scenario is for a provisional government to be set up, to be headed by a prominent national figure (like Hilario Davide Jr. or Haydee Yorac) but to include the incumbent but outgoing president GMA, Raul Roco, Ping Lacson and FPJ (minus his trapo hangers-on), supported by the military, the business community, the Churches and the middle classs, even by the communists, to rewrite the rules of electoral engagement. It would be a hard sell to the wishy-washy liberals and the media, both of whom are fixated on �democratic� elections no matter how badly and irreversibly flawed. But what is the alternative? A spiral descent into Never-Never-Land, where illusion is indistinguishable from reality, where the fate and future of 84 million people and their trillions of pesos worth of assets and investments are placed in the hands of the ignorant and the stupid represented by the unqualified and the uneducated. This is not �democracy� anymore but, as a viewer of this space has pointed out, a �kakistocracy�, government by the worst possible persons. .............................................................................. You are good, straightforward, and a true ethical man of letters. Let me, then, take and support the contrary view, Tony,. I have been on record here. Poe will not win on sheer popularity. Even if all the "Class E" voters were to go whole hog and "agaga" for this fading matinee idol, Poe, this will not be enough for him to bag the presidential title. (always assuming that he would last throughout and survive the presidential campaign). Conventional knowledge estimates the Economic Classes D & E described as "all the starving, struggling daily to survive, marginalized (unemployed and marginally employed), living-paycheck-to-paycheck (when employed) is made up of about 40% of the total population of the Philippines. (40% x 77M = 32.8M on the low side; or 40% x 81 M projected population = 32.4 M) Of this high and low estimate number of "varying degrees of poor", it is generally agreed that at least 60 percent are "minors and not of legal or voting age". Therefore, this leaves only 13.0M POTENTIAL VOTERS FROM THE "MASANG POOR". Let us be generous and assume that of these 13.0 M potential Masang Poor qualified voters, 80% actually registered to vote and do maintain residence in their respective voting precincts. This would mean about 10.4 M "poor voters". Let us again be magnanimous and assume that of these 10.4 M "poor voters" 80% actually cast their votes on election day. That would, then, mean a total of 8.3M votes. That is the OPTIMUM VOTING STRENGHT OF THE MASANG POOR essentially composed of economic classes D and E. Let us be "nice" to Poe and give him all of these 8.3 million "screaming diehard voters". And even allow another 2.0 million voters from the Classes A, B, and C. That would then yield a grand total of 10.3 million votes. The challenging question, therefore, is = HOW MANY VOTES WILL A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN 2004 NEED TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY? CLUES: 1. If Poe had run for the presidential election in 1992, the combined votes of Ramos - 5.3M and Santiago - 4.5M or 9.8M would still have lost to his projected 10.4M votes for 2004. . BUT THAT IS IN 1992! 2. If Poe had run for the presidential election in 1998 against Erap, he would have lost by a slim margin against Erap's 10.9M. AND THAT IS IN 1998! 3. If Poe runs in 2004, he would need to win MORE THAN 10.4 MILLION VOTES. Best estimates have the MINIMUM winning number of votes at 11.2M votes, or 35%, based on a "four-corner even-steven election duel". (i.e., nobody withdraws and endorses another candidate from among the original four). 4. CONCLUSION But we have shown that under the most favorable and ideal condition for Poe, the most number of votes that he can possibly win will not exceed 10.4 millions (again stressing, this is based on the assumption he will not withdraw from the race.) Therefore, my conclusion. Winning an election really has very little to do with being "a matinee idol" of the masang poor. Let me stress that. The "masang poor's" combined voting power and strength is not enough to elect a president. If there are proofs of this, otherwise, I would really appreciate receiving such findings. DISCLAIMER I realize and admit that the Philippine statistics are only as good and reliable as the statistician and the ulterior purpose of his statistical endeavours. However, in the complete absence of contrary evidence, the officially reported statistics become the only intelligent basis for any meaningful analyses and projections. ===================== THE REGIONAL APPROACH Based on actual and official reports in 1998, here is a breakdown of the total number of registered voters per region with corresponding detailed projections of the voter turnout in each region. A comparison of "actual and projected" yielded a very close correlation. 1998 Regions Registered Estimated VTO(80%) Percent-to-Total NCR 5,137,010 4,109,608 15.4 Region I (Ilocos) 2,050,973 1,640,778 6.2 CAR 541,244 432,995 1.6 Region II (Cag. Valley) 1,143,392 917,714 3.4 Region III (Ctral Luzon) 3,677,759 2,942,207 11.0 Region IV (SoTagalog) 4,889,024 3,911,219 14.7 Region V (Bicol Reg) 1,809,170 1,447,336 5.4 Region VI (W.Visayas) 2,669,239 2,135,391 8.0 Region VII (C Visayas) 2,431, 921 1,945,537 7.3 Region VIII (E.Visayas) 1,514,059 1,212,047 4.5 Region IX (Western Mindanao) 1, 573, 129 1, 027, 938 3.9 Region X (Northern Mindanao) 1, 234, 511 987, 609 3.7 Region XI (Southern Mindanao) 2, 157, 927 1,726,342 6.5 Region XII (Central Mindanao) 1,053,043 842,434 3.2 ARMM 997,864 798,291 3.0 CARAGA 878,664 702,931 2.6 ----------------------------------------- Summary Review 1998 Actual Registered Voters = 34 millions. Actual Voter Turn Out 1998 = 27.2 millions (80% Actual Winning Percent of Votes = 39%+ (10.9 millions) Actual Registered Voters 1992 = 29 million Actual Voter Turn out 1992 = 23.2 millions Actual Winning Percent of Votes= 24% ================================== SECOND CONCLUSION - The Regional Approach. 1. It is generally conceded that Luzon is "vote-rich" (in fact, the richest).It is also generally conceded that although the "metropolitan areas" in Luzon are typically and traditionally, "anti administration", the outlying areas do not necessarily support "the intelligent votes" from these metropolitan areas. 2. GMA will win in Luzon, overall. Cagayan Valley, the Ilocos Regions, CAR (MT. Province-Isabela, etc) which used to be the core of the so-called "solid north" have been polarized enough to allow a strong campaigner like GMA to establish solid inroads. GMA's bailiwick is in Central Luzon and Southern Tagalog Regions, but will most definitely lose to Roco in the Bicol Regions. Total voting strenght (based on 1998) = 15.0 M.+ + 3. GMA will take a win-lose-draw positions in the Western, Central, Eastern Visayas. Based on 1998 (5.0 M+ + ) 3. GMA will win Mindanao. Total voting strength = 7.0M+ + based on 1998. 4. Let's take a closer look at some of the 2004 projections (both official and speculative): Total Registered Voters - estimated at 40 Millions. Total Voter Turnout - estimated at 32 Millions or 80%. MINIMUM Required to win = 35% or 11.2M votes. (assumed) 5. Assume the same, similar voter demographics and geographics dispersion among the regions as in 1998 and allowing 20% increase in voter turnout, here is the regional distribution of projected voter turnout for 2004. LUZON 15.0 M (voter turnout) + 3.0M (20%) = 18.5 M (2004) VISAYAS 5.0 M " + 1.0M (20%) = 6.0 M (2004) MINDANAO 7.0 M " + 1.0M(20%) = 8.0 M (2004) SUBTOTAL 27.0M (1998 voter turnout) 32.0M (2004) 6. PROJECTED PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF RESULTS IN 2004, assuming that FPJ will not withdraw and, further assuming that FPJ will win ALL VOTES from the whole "masang poor population" as defined above. GMA = 11.4 Millions (35%) Poe = 10.4 Millions (30%) Roco = 6.4 Millions (20%) Lacson = 3.8 Millions (15%) THESE PROJECTED ELECTION 2004 RESULTS ARE FUNDAMENTALLY BASED ON: 1. FPJ performing at his optimum. 2. GMA at her "so-so" level best. 3. RR at average. 4. PL at his best. POST ELECTION REACTIONS/HEADLINES "GMA AND HER ADMINISTRATION CHEATED MASSIVELY AND MORE THAN THE OTHERS DURING ELECTION 2004 " "ELECTION IS THE DIRTIEST ELECTION EVER. CIVIL ADVOCACIES AND MILITARY SQUARING OFF." "COMELEC CONFIRMS FRAUD IN SEVERAL REGIONS. NAMFREL DISPUTES COMELEC INITIAL FINDINGS." "CONGRESS NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER TO DECLARE THE ELECTION NULL AND VOID AND CALL FOR A RE-COUNT OR RE-ELECTION." "FPJ AND ERAP TEAM UP IN ANOTHER MOVIE SPECTACLE: *MY BEST ACTING ROLE* - A DOCUMENTARY." And with all that, let me end the year 2003 and bid you a Happy New Year in 2004. You are a good and straightforward man. Though minus the superlatives, Tony, specially within the context of Philippine politics and Philippine journalism, and Philippine media...being just that, "good and straightforward" - means being a true ethical man of letters. Feliz an~o Nuevo. Pepeton J'anton, [email protected] January 02, 2004 MY REPLY. Your long peroration rests on two wrong assumptions: a) that the D and E underclasses make up 40% of the electorate; and b) that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will win 35% of the votes. Marketing people put the DE classes as making up about 70% of the population, hence also of the voters. GMA is not likely to win 35% of the votes in May 2004. In current surveys, she is getting only 14-16% of respondents� votes. It is possible that, come election day, that share will rise to 20-22%, as Fidel Ramos� 14-16% in 1992 did rise to 24%, with the help of the Sulo Hotel Operations Group. But a jump to 35% would be totally beyond the realm of the credible and could trigger class warfare and/or a middle class revolt. Better for her to accept her diminished constituency and withdraw from the race before she is humiliated. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
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