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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| FPJ Aping Cory By Antonio C Abaya May 26, 2004 When opposition presidential contender FPJ claimed victory in the May 10 elections, only ten days after the ballots were cast, he was doing an imitation of Cory Aquino after the snap elections of February 7, 1986. In February 1986, the Comelec, though embarassed by the walk-out by many of its computer tabulators in protest against the massive fraud that they were being made parties to, proclaimed Ferdinand Marcos the winner of the elections. But the Namfrel quick count showed Mrs. Aquino leading in its tabulation, even though it covered only 72% of the precincts. Mrs. Aquino�s advisers counseled her to unilaterally claim victory (as FPJ�s advisers have advised him to do in 2004), and this she did in a mammoth Tagumpay ng Bayan rally at the Luneta attended by some two million of her largely middle-class supporters. FPJ�s victory claim, however, announced in a presscon in Zamboanga City and attended by only several dozens of his supporters, did not have the resonance and impact that Cory�s self-proclamation of victory had in 1986. And FPJ�s alleged victory is backed up by neither the Comelec (which had not yet started to tabulate the returns) nor the Namfrel (whose glacial quick count has shown FPJ always trailing President Arroyo). It is supported only by the unauthorized tabulations of the previously unheard of People�s Tally and Action Center (PTAC) in Makati, an in-house FPJ outfit organized by his campaign manager, Mayor Jojo Binay, and which has never done a nationwide quick count before. PTAC, therefore, has zero credibility and those who parrot FPJ�s claim of victory solely on the basis of PTAC�s tabulations should be asked if they would buy a used Humvee from Osama bin Laden solely on the al-Qaeda�s assurance that it was legally his. Cory�s victory claim in February 1986 was not only backed up by a credible Namfrel, it was also given compelling force and muscle by a subsequent military mutiny against Marcos, a mutiny which succeeded only because it was shielded and embraced by the middle-class, the same middle-class who trooped to the Tagumpay ng Bayan at the Luneta in support of Cory.. It can be assumed that FPJ�s advisers, who had convinced him to do a Cory by unilaterally claiming victory, have also been strategizing a military mutiny somewhere against the Arroyo Government, and the usual suspect will, as always, be the expert on failed coups, Gringo Honasan, who is now being accused by military intelligence of recruiting mutineers in Mindanao. Said mutiny, when it is launched, will be shielded and embraced by the denizens of the DE under-classes led by the Pwet ng Masa under rabble- rouser Ronald Lumbao and communist-ideologue-turned-trapo-organizer Boy Morales. They were, in fact, marching towards Oakwood with their DE contingents in the wee hours of July 27, 2003, to shield and embrace the mutineers there, when they were stopped by police and loyal military. Without a civilian component to give the semblance of a widespread civil insurrection, the attempted coup � for that was what it was � fizzled out. Have they learned their lesson? Probably not. But they may have refined their tactics. This time around, the tactical goal may not be an immediate grab for power but a patient war of attrition to delay, as long as they can, the proclamation of the apparent presidential winner, who is less and less likely to be FPJ. (An updated version of my analysis of the Namfrel data is available on request from [email protected]. It shows GMA�s lead over FPJ stabilizing at 3.6 to 3.9%, not 9% as in the SWS exit poll.) The insistence of newly re-elected opposition Sen. Aquilino Pimentel that the canvassing of the certificates of canvass for president and vice-president should be done by both Houses of Congress acting in joint plenary session, rather than by a joint bi-partisan committee of 14, as has been the practice before, defies all practical common sense. It can only be explained as a tactical ploy to prolong the canvassing indefinitely so that no presidential winner is proclaimed in time for the inauguration on June 30. Without a new or re-elected president in place, there will be both a constitutional crisis and a power vacuum, which would be the ideal time to launch a military mutiny backed by a DE civilian component from the Pwet ng Masa, a replay of the Oakwood mutiny of July 2003, but this time amidst a more tumultuous and chaotic environment. An added factor in 2004 would be the active involvement of the communist movement. In 1986 the communists had boycotted the snap elections and were left out of the People Power �revolution�. In 1991, the communist movement was sundered by a major schism. Popoy Lagman criticized the Maoist strategy pursued by Joma Sison of building mass bases with a politicized peasantry in the countryside. Lagman pointed out that under this strategy the communist movement was not able to play a leading role in the EDSA uprising in Metro Manila because Sison�s cadres were almost all in the countryside. Lagman broke away from Sison, taking with him the cadres in Metro Manila and Rizal , vowing that if and when there is another EDSA uprising, he (Lagman) would grab its leadership and turn it into the long awaited socialist revolution to bring about the supposedly inevitable triumph of Communism. To this end, Lagman and his cadres devoted their energies towards politicizing the labor unions and the urban squatters and chose as their model the urban-fighting Sandinistas of Nicaragua. But when EDSA 2 did come, in January 2001, Lagman failed to grab its leadership. Instead he allied himself and his front organizations (Sanlakas, BMP, etc) with the trapo Peping Cojuangco and the political meddler Pastor Saycon and their COPA, who started their agitation against the newly installed President Arroyo when it became clear that they were not going to get the Cabinet positions that they were expecting. Lagman was subsequently assassinated, either by followers of the vindictive Joma (as Leon Trotsky was by Stalin in August 1940), or by his own people who felt betrayed by him. Comes now a putative EDSA 4 and a textbook class struggle between the oppressed DE under-classes and the exploiting ABC comprador, bureaucrat-capitalist and bourgeois consumer classes. His �concrete analysis of the concrete situation� (to use one of his favorite phrases) would likely compel the doctrinaire Joma to intervene on the side of the Pwet ng Masa, not to advance the cause of FPJ (whom he has judged to be unqualified for the presidency), but to take advantage of the chaos and instability to carry the socialist revolution to the cities (ironically, as Lagman had advocated) and bring about the supposedly inevitable triumph of Communism. The clueless FPJ would not understand the evolving situation. Neither did Cory in 1986-87.***** The bulk of this article appears in the June 05, 2004 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �FPJ Aping Cory� Thanks so much for including me in your mailing list. Wow this is mind boggling. Doris Ho, [email protected] May 28, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony -- Excellent analysis, as usual. Your prediction of a narrower spread between GMA and FPJ seems borne out by that leaked Comelec report too. Regards Johnny Mercado, [email protected] May 27, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Your column rekindled memories of the 1986 Snap Elections when I was with the Cory Aquino Media Bureau. Yes, I do remember the Tagumpay ng Bayan rally at Luneta where an estimated 2 Million Filipinos attended. EJ and I still have our photograhs of the momentous affair. Actually, we, at the Media Bureau, claimed victory much earlier as a matter of "psych-war" tactic. I had the honor and privilege of calling the news organizations less than 12 hours after the polls closed to claim victory for Cory Aquino. It was a stroke of genius - a masterpiece - of whoever thought of it. I just followed instructions. Galit na galit sila MaCoy noon. Naisan naman sila. That was great fun. Anyway, as your column correctly puts it, the Namfrel quick count for 72% of the precincts showed that there was basis for the claim to victory at the polls. Once again, a great column. Rick B. Ramos, [email protected] May 27, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Through the pldt egroup) I never got to vote in this past electioI because I was one of those unfortunate once who did not find our names at the precint list I have been voting all my life. I speak for a lot of disenfranchised voters that this is getting to be sickening to a point of frustrationand God knows what. There are partisan columnists and there are partisan newsmen, but they can not judge a persons declaration to a point of biasness. Sorry people.... Maybe that is why our country is in such a state because of people judging ahead of time the actions / declaration of some people. It is every Man's right / perogative to declare what he wants (cheating). It is also his burden to prove his declaration is correct. Let us not pre-judge what one says and let us see what he has to show first before we make a decision, be it believable or not... If people who voted for GMA, FPJ, PING, ROCO or Bro EDDIE believe that he/she had won the recent elections and the elections was not rigged from the start...that is their right and perogative. But let me tell everyone, there is no such thing as "cheating in isolated areas only in the PHILIPPINES" during elections my friends. In the Philippines, it is compared to a "Cottage Industry" when it comes to election time...If it happens in one area, then there must be other areas also involved. Please...let us not be so "naive" about all this political statements on so-called "ISOLATED CASES". It is either: "There was cheating or there was no cheating" nothing else. Now, if there was alleged cheating done, every citizen has the RIGHT to look into all percieved documents wherein cheating was to have occured. Don't you think so? It is immaterial if this will affect or not affect the number of votes, and these people involved in the alleged cheating or whatever name they call it nowadays, must be shown the full force of the law, if found to be guilty. WE MUST SET AN EXAMPLE NOW, NOT LATER OR FORGET ABOUT OUR COUNTRY AS A WHOLE! Whoever they may be...Administration or Opposition or Teachers, COMELEC etc... This must be stopped once and for all since these will affect the PEOPLE and not any invidual. Pleasae pray that we are Saved from this scenario that we are encountering now because of a few selfish politicians or persons in power or want to grab power in our society.... Jose Genato, [email protected] May 27, 2004 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |