 |
 |
| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| The FBI Plot Thickens By Antonio C. Abaya Written Sept. 18, 2005 For the Standard Today, September 20 issue Some clarification is in order. When a foreign country�s diplomats assess and evaluate the host country�s political and economic status, capabilities and likely development, their reports to their home office are in the nature of intelligence gathering, a common enough activity that all diplomats of all countries do on a regular basis. That is what they are being paid by their governments to do. But when those same diplomats use sub-rosa methods to acquire the information they seek, then that is spying or espionage, as far as the host country is concerned. Sub-rosa methods include taking unauthorized photographs of installations, documents or activities which the host country considers secret. In the brave new world of the Internet, illegally downloading secret documents from the host country�s database would be on the same level as taking unauthorized photographs of those documents, and would be spying or espionage. If Western diplomats based in Iran, for example, were to report to their governments that, based on their assessments of the technological activities in or related to the nuclear reactor at Isfahan, Iran was moving towards acquiring the capability to build nuclear weapons, that would be mere intelligence gathering. But when those diplomats bribe an Iranian scientist or engineer involved in the project to steal for them secret documents and technical information related to the project, then that would be spying or espionage. Intelligence gathering can segue into espionage once bribery and/or the deliberate breach of secrecy come into play. In the present brouhaha involving the FBI and some Filipino politicians and their intermediaries, as far as I can tell, there was only routine intelligence gathering involved on the part of American diplomats when they submitted their periodic reports to their home office regarding the present and near-future political developments in this country. But when FBI intelligence analyst Leandro Aragoncillo used his top security clearance to access the FBI database and illegally download 101 documents, 37 of which were classified as �secret,� and then passed them on electronically to foreign politicians, directly and/or through confederate Michael Ray Aquino, then this is clearly espionage. What could possibly be the contents of those 37 �secret� documents that Aragoncillo illegally downloaded? There are no secrets in this garrulous and gullible nation, certainly no military secrets in its pathetically under-equipped and under-trained armed forces, no industrial or technological secrets in its pre-industrial economy, no scientific secrets in its non-existent science research community. What those 37 �secret� documents probably contained are evaluations and assessments of possible near-future political developments in the Philippines. Secret because they contained unflattering comments on Philippine political leaders, including President Arroyo, which, if made public, would cause a diplomatic row and strain relations between the two countries. Secret also, possibly, because they contained the names of the FBI�s contacts and sources in this country and would thus compromise and cripple, if only temporarily, their ability to gather information here. So, purely on the basis of the �secret� contents of the information stolen and passed on to others, this is really peanuts in the cosmic order of things. Nothing like the information stolen by CIA agent Aldrich Ames (arrested in 1994) or FBI agent Robert Philip Hansen (arrested in 2001), both of whom had revealed to their Soviet and post-Soviet paymasters the names of Russians spying for the US, who were then all ordered executed for treason by Moscow. But the Filipino politicians involved in this affair cannot use the relative insignificance of the �secret� information they received from Aragoncillo and Aquino to wiggle out of this. From the American point of view, what is more important than the actual �secrets� stolen is the fact that their trust had been betrayed and their security had been breached. In the post-9/11 frame of mind of official Washington, the Americans are not likely to put much credence to alibis that are in the category of my-grandmother-died excuses that we all used in grade or high school to hide our little transgressions. In the meantime, the role of Leandro Aragoncillo bears closer scrutiny. A veteran with the US Marine Corps for 21 years, Aragoncillo was hired by the FBI as an intelligence analyst only last July 2004 and was suspended on Sept 12, 2005, two days after he was arrested for espionage. The Sept 16 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer reveals that, based on the records of the Philippine immigration bureau, Aragoncillo made fifteen trips to the Philippines in the past five years. One trip of six days in 2000, three trips each in 2001 and 2004, five trips of varying lengths in 2002, two trips in 2003. In 2005, he came on June 12 and left on July 3, his longest stay in five years. Deposed president Joseph Estrada has admitted meeting Aragoncillo back in 1999 when Estrada made a state visit to Washington DC and Aragoncillo was a staff member of the Clinton White House. Estrada also admitted that Michael Ray Aquino was a godson of his. When Aquino was arrested in March 2005 on a visa violation, it was Aragoncillo, then already with the FBI, who interceded for him. It seems to be at this point that the FBI started monitoring the two. This also suggests that Aragoncillo established a working relation with Estrada and Panfilo Lacson (and may have gotten his mission orders) during his three visits home in 2004, just before he joined the FBI. The Sept 15 issue of the Inquirer also contained the information, sourced from an unnamed opposition member, that a copy of the �Hello Garci� tape was given to Aragoncillo by a representative of Joseph Estrada, for appreciation and possible evaluation by the FBI. Erap�s rep was supposedly his former agrarian reform secretary, Horacio �Boy� Morales, who has denied the allegation. But Morales did leave for, or was summoned (for the second time) to, Washington on March 28, 2005. Morales, not coincidentally, is also in the Unity for Truth and Justice coalition that seeks to establish a �caretaker� (read, �revolutionary�) government, fronted by Renato de Villa, once President Arroyo is overthrown by a much sought-after military intervention.. The FBI plot thickens with the additional revelation in the Sept. 18 issue of the Inquirer, obviously deliberately leaked by someone, and possibly one of the 37 �secret� documents purloined by Aragoncillo, that an April 15 report from the US Embassy in Manila to Washington warned that elements of the AFP were planning to move against President Arroyo and force her to resign. But that her hardcore supporters outside the military who could be armed (the national police under DILG Secretary Angelo Reyes? � ACA) might be used to thwart such a move. The April 15 report also reported that �with the impending unification of the opposition groups, Estrada seems to have substantially benefited from her declining ratings�He equates legitimacy with popular support and his intention to revive the pro-Estrada fervor has already produced destabilization rumors. �. �Reports from the US Defense Attache�s Office suggests (the coup plotters) are planning an undefined �military operation� involving elements from all four services that is intended to intimidate President Arroyo into resigning.� The report also posited two scenarios. The first one involves goading Ms. Arroyo into declaring a state of emergency, �prompting the military � unwilling to repress citizens of any political stripe � either to refuse or to turn against the President.� The other involves a �general strike� by those who oppose her. At this point, both scenarios have become unlikely, mainly because of the failure of the largely trapo opposition, together with their communist allies, to draw the middle-class to their cause in their hundreds of thousands, even if some middle-class icons � such as Cory Aquino etc - have dutifully attended their prayer rallies to pray for the �truth.� The middle-class rightfully distrust and dislike both the trapos and the communists. Without the middle-class in revolt in their hundreds of thousands, the military would hesitate to move against President Arroyo just to accommodate the trapos and their communist allies. Such an intervention would appear purely mercenary and devoid of any idealistic pretensions. The military would also not act alone, for themselves alone, because they know that they cannot run this country by their lonesome. A purely military take-over would not succeed or last more than one week. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �The FBI Plot Thickens� Mr. Abaya, Have you checked on Saranggani Island where there is a tremendous activity between the Philippine and US governments? Please do so because it will reveal a lot of shenanigans other than "economic development". The UN is aware of this. I won't be surprised if Mr. Aragoncillo's case has something to do with it. I understand that for the first time in US-Philippine relations, the US ambassador made a trip to the southern Philippines last year? Don't you think that was interesting? Alba V. Eugenio, [email protected] September 21, 2005 MY REPLY. This would be consistent with the Americans� activities in Basilan and Gen. Santos City. They are setting up jump-off bases in the South just in case they have to move militarily against the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia and/or Malaysia. I wrote about this in my article �Why the Americans are in Basilan and Sulu� (June 06, 2002). wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, What a great espionage film, filled with suspense, betrayal, and power games! And the world goes on!! Thanks for surfacing the craziness. When I write the film script, I'll add a Karl Rove figure masterminding the politics! Alan Klaum, [email protected] San Francisco, CA, September 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony- I think you are right, any serious political change - good, bad, or indifferent - will require the middle class to act. However, if my observations are even close to correct, the middle class today is nowhere near ready to act politically, and not for a very long time. The Philippine middle class has been burned and is looking elsewhere for its life. Aside from a small intelligentsia, and a few others, from what I have read and seen and heard during my more or less annual visits there, the vast majority of the middle class is now deeply (almost unredeemably) cynical about national politics. Indeed, aside from viewing national politics as a TV Soap, they have essentially given up on it. My sense is that most feel that the country's politics, and its national politicians, have simply failed, and that there is no way out. They feel that personally its too dirty to get into, and that anyone who does, even if they start off clean, will be forced to get dirty very quickly if they want to survive. In fact, my hunch - and this is even worse - is that deep down most of the middle class feel that the country has failed. Which would be why so many want to - and do - emigrate to the US, Canada, Australia, etc. And when they cannot go personally: (1) they do everything they can to enable and encourage their kids to leave the country. (2) Whenever possible they spend their vacations in Hong Kong, Paris, New York, Disneyland, etc. And (3) when they are in the Philippines, they just want to be left alone to enjoy whatever consumerist (mall, country club, gated community) social life they can. The last thing the middle class wants is to get entangled in dealing seriously with poverty in the country because it would obviously require levels and forms of re-distribution of power and wealth that would directly threaten their own economic, political, and social security. People Power, EDSA's I and II, massively brought out the middle class in moral outrage against Marcos and Estrada, and their obvious crimes and cronies. In each case there was hope that something substantially different and better would follow. They now see that it hasn't. Moreover, they understandably think that whoever might follow next will similarly and inevitably fall into the hands of the same, or a new generation of, trapos and the status quo business elites. Deja vu all over again. With such a view and recent experience to back it up, and without a totally transformative figure to lead them, they won't act. I know this is all very pessimistic. And it pains me because I also know there are many wonderful people in the country, and I have many wonderful friends there. But at this point it seems to me that the middle class is truly demobilized. It has given up on the possibilities of serious structural change. And that leaves politics all in the hands of one trapo group or another. It�s also why, in searching for some alternative source of middle class re-mobilization - some other vision of how the society might be better organized - I tentatively speculated that there might be some useful models in the communitarian religious movements which seem to be growing all across the country. I don't know enough about them, and I am hardly optimistic about it. However, given the deep religiosity of so many Filipinos it at least seemed worth suggesting. And in my frustration I don't know where else to look. How far off the mark do you think I am? David Szanton, [email protected] Durban, South Africa, September 21, 2005 MY REPLY. You're right on the button, David, except on the matter of religious groups becoming politically prominent. Brother Eddie made waves in the May 2004 elections as an underdog presidential candidate, but he seems to have lost much of his appeal. I had been meeting with him from Dec 2004 to around June this year. He really is shallow and wouldn't know what to do, except pray, if he suddenly were to become president. today. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: If you're trying to lull GMA into a sense of false security by saying the military can't move alone and can't last for more than a week, you just may succeed in making her believe that she can continue with her arrogant and profligate criminal enterprise called the GMA administration. But this crook is too focused on retaining power to be distracted by such an assurance from you. Your article notwithstanding, she has ordered her minions to be on full alert. In fact, these minions have been suppressing truth and even kidnapping citizens who threaten to expose said truth. Fortunately, our soldiers will not be distracted also so we see GMA departing in the very near future. Tito Osias, [email protected] September 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, Regarding your Manila Standard Colunm on Sep 20, 2005, I still believe that a Vote of Confidence on President Gloria Arroyo is in order. If this is not possible due to the refusal of the present administration, perhaps a Regional Survey is more acceptable and/doable. A reputable Survey Company (or Companies) may be tapped by the Civil Society to conduct a Confidence Survey on GMA with a one-sentence question: "GUSTO MO BANG MAGPATULOY PA NA PANGULO NG FILIPINAS SI GLORIA MACAPAGAL ARROYO?" The Regional Survey may be conducted all at the same time or with an interval of one to three days between Regions at random. With these surveys, the results would probably put to rest the controversy as to what does majority of our citizenry really want. This would also put to rest the claim of either the administration or the opposition that she or he has the support of the majority of the Filipino citizenry. If the results are a plurality of YES, the opposition MUST stop harassing the administration and just simply assist or fiscalize PGMA's actions with the progress of the country in mind. On the other hand, if the results are a majority of NO votes, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo MUST resign and both GMA and the opposition MUST allow the duly elected Vice President to assume the Presidency. Perhaps, our country can then move forward to prosperity and progress as ONE NATION, if both parties will pledge to respect and abide by the results of the Survey without mental reservation and/or purpose of evasion. GBU. Merardo C. Abaya, September 21, 2005 MY REPLY. I suggest that you present your proposal to professional polling organizations, like SWS and Pulse Asia, and see what they think of it. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The Need for a Revolutionary Transition By Maj. Gen Fortunato U. Abat (Ret), In one of his many engagements, the late President John Fitzgerald Kennedy adverted to a great French Marshal Lyautey who asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected saying that the tree was slow growing and would not reach maturity for 100 years. The Marshal then said, "In that case, there is no time to lose; plant the tree now". That tree was planted last April 30 this year when the Movement for National Salvation was launched with the objective of ousting GMA from the Presidency. And that tree grew so fast tipping several movements of various persuasions to call for GMA to step down. Unfortunately, it has not rooted strongly into the ground to present a sturdy united front to effectively challenge the enormous powers of GMA's presidency. These movements are clustered in various post-GMA takeover scenarios. Some are "in the box" or constitutional solutions, others are "out of the box" solution of extra-constitutional or radical character of change. "In the box" or constitutional scenarios come in the form of constitutional succession; snap or any form of election; impeachment; charter change by convention, constituent assembly, or appointed constitutional commission, all of which are intended to preserve the status quo.. "Out of the box" means extra-constitutional or unconstitutional mode of change that may come in the form of a coup by the military, police, any armed rebel group, or any segment thereof; people power by the civil society alone or combined with armed components to forcibly remove the incumbent government and establish in its stead a revolutionary, transition, provisional, caretaker government. In Ukraine and Georgia, pure people power toppled the incumbent leaderships. Here, there is a strong notion that civil society through people power alone will not succeed to remove the national leadership and change the system of governance without military support. Edsa 1 influenced this thinking that without military support people power alone will not succeed. What happened at that time was that the call for the people to protect the Enrile-Ramos rebellion sucked the whole military establishment to tip the balance against the Marcos regime. That event institutionalized the protector clause of the military in the 1987 Constitution, and that clause was used in Edsa 2 in support of the move of the sovereign people to withdraw its authority for President Estrada to farther govern the nation in accordance with Section 1, Article II of the Constitution. But I, for one, still believe in a united, solid, peaceful mass movement of people bound by a common cause and unrestrained by organizational or personal persuasions - political, social, economic, ethnic, religious, ideological - moving and carrying only one flag, the Philippine Flag to show a real people movement to effectively confront and topple a misgoverning and corrupt national authority without the support of the military that is firmly holding on to its neutral position. Opting for an "in the box" solution will only perpetuate the status quo or trapo system of governance that has been pushing this nation farther to the brink of national disaster. The proposal for a Constituent Assembly to write a new Constitution, the most applauded during GMA's SONA, cater to the whims and political interests of the members of Congress, one of the institutions that need to be overhauled and revolutionized. And this is the reason that some groups, using the Constitution's sovereignty-of-the-people clause, are seeking "out of the box" mode of change to replace the present national leadership system with one that will uphold the interests of the people as a whole. The most publicized "out of the box" method is to put up a caretaker government to provide for a revolutionary transition toward a new and reformed constitutional system of governance. Why revolutionary transition? Because there is a need for a cleansing period of say 1 to 2 or 3 years to transit to a new system of governance. Transition implies a timeline to undertake innovative and revolutionary ways of cleaning the dirt of our traditional politics and institutions, inculcating discipline in our way of thinking and behaving as a people, developing a firm and authoritative governance under a disciplined democracy. Revolutionary transition is nationalist in character - meaning a non-onion-skinned virtue of country-first-before-oneself, absorbing into our culture and our way of life the good things from our neighbors and the world outside that will promote progress and prosperity for our country and people. It is constitutional. It stands squarely and firmly on Section 1, Article II of the Constitution that defines the sovereignty of the people from whom emanate the authority of government to govern. Which implies that when the powers of government are used to the detriment of the national interests, it is the right of the people to change that government and replace it with one that will effect the peoples' safety and happiness and move the nation toward a progressive and prosperous national life. In view of this, there is nothing more for GMA to discern but to step down. The failure of the lower house of Congress to push the impeachment of the President has emboldened more people to raise their voices in outrage for her to step down from the Presidency. The so-called representatives of the people in the lower house miserably failed to discern the moral value of the impeachment process. Using legal technicalities and "democratic" numbers, they blocked the people's desire to know the truth about GMA's presidential behavior. Whether they succumbed to palace manipulation, as reported in the media, or not, is of no moment. They and the palace will have to share the explosive impact of the people's anger. The general outcry for GMA to step down has deafeningly reverberated across the land. This, despite the manifestations of local executives and of those who would want to maintain the status quo for their personal, business and political interests and who fear the loss of their well-paying jobs should she step down. And the outrage of the people has doubly increased with GMA giving authority to her national security adviser to consummate the Venable LLP lobby contract inviting foreign interference in our internal affairs in violation of a highly respected and well accepted principle on international relations. With the economy in shambles, more people wallowing in poverty, hunger and disease, joblessness at all-time high, and corruption stalking all sectors in government, there is nothing more for GMA to discern but to be morally courageous and patriotic enough to step down for the good of the country and people. This is the implication of her call for unity and reconciliation for her to give way to a caretaker government that will clean the dirt of our traditional political system after which a new constitutional government will be set up where she can vie again for national leadership. I firmly believe that this is the best service that GMA can give to the people and fulfill her dream of being a good President ***** Fortunato U. Abat, [email protected] September 20, 2005 MY REPLY. I basically agree with most of your points. I have been calling for a revolutionary government since 2002, as you can see in the website www.tapatt.org. Your strategic flaw was in aligning yourself with the trapos and the communists. You will never attract the middle class to your cause because the middle class do not trust the trapos and the communists. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww How well you differentiated espionage or spying from normal intelligence gathering by diplomats in their counties of assignment. In my interviews and meetings in the presence of media, I have always reiterated my call on the military to stay neutral, believing firmly as I read their minds that they will shift support to an uncolored peoples movement that successfully dethrones GMA. Fortunato U. Abat, [email protected] September 22, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I watched you on TV with Korina Sanchez the other night. You�re ok, but you were not being yourself. Ernesto Pilapil Jr., [email protected] September 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, I just read your column entitled "The FBI Plot Thickens" over the internet following a link from Manolo Quezon's website. I have always admired the way you presented your views whether on television, to your commentary on DWIZ (is that still on?), but your take on this FBI issue really put things in perspective for me. I am not usually given to writing people in admiration, but that piece was really something with its clarity, simplicity and incisiveness. I do not always agree with your views, but please consider me a fan. Ed Picson, [email protected] September 22, 2005 MY REPLY. Thank you for your kind words. In reply to your query, my radio commentary on station DWIZ ceased when Ernie Maceda bought out my time slot in December 2003, in the run-up to the May 2004 elections. The station offered to move me to a 12 noon time slot, but I declined. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony- Thanks for the nearly instant response. I was (painfully) aware that the idea that some of the religious communities might provide a model for something new, socially and politically, was a real stretch, but I don't know where else to look! If the middle class won't move, and the masa can't afford to (and will be squelched if they try), and the military can't run the country and wouldn't know how, and given that the trapos are utterly useless and destructive, where oh where will the transforming vision and leadership come from?? David Szanton, [email protected] Durban, South Africa, September 22, 2005 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |