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| Espying Emergency Rule By Antonio C. Abaya Written Oct. 11, 2005 For the Standard Today, October 13 issue The espionage scandal involving two Filipinos (Leandro Aragoncillo and Michael Ray Aquino) in the US and three so far unnamed Filipino politicians here (most likely Joseph Estrada and Panfilo Lacson, and a third still indeterminate one) may be the cause celebre that will compel the Arroyo Government to declare emergency rule, short of martial law. Let me explain. ABC News called it the first case of spying in the White House. Which has led to back-slapping and self-congratulations from the usual parochial types about ang galing talaga ng Pinoy! The only reason why Leandro Aragoncillo was able to do his snooping, undetected, even in the White House, is because he is a native of a pre-industrial country that is, additionally, not belligerent � on the contrary, habitually obsequious - towards the US, and was therefore not the least bit suspected of harboring any motivation to snoop around in its most secret chambers. The Americans would never have placed a Japanese-born American citizen in the White House in 1941 even as US cryptographers were breaking the Japanese naval and diplomatic codes. Nor would they place a Japanese-born American in the White House even now, 64 years after Pearl Harbor, because Japan remains an economic and technological rival even though it is a geopolitical ally. Would the British have placed a German-born British subject in the inner sanctum of the Admiralty while their cryptographers were unraveling the secrets of the German Enigma encoding/decoding machine? Of course not. Perhaps a Gurkha or a Fijian, to empty the ash trays or sweep the floor, but not a German, even for that. You get my drift. According to the Oct. 7 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Aragoncillo worked in the White House from 1999 to 2002 and was assigned to the Vice-President�s Office. That means he worked under, first, Al Gore, then (from January 2001) under Dick Cheney. There is no information (so far) on where Aragoncillo was assigned between leaving the White House in 2002 (month unstated) and joining the FBI in July 2004. But in March 2005, when Michael Ray Aquino � former lieutenant of Panfilo Lacson in the PNP � was arrested for a visa violation, it was Aragoncillo, already with the FBI, who interceded for him. This suggests a connection between the two (and three, if you count Lacson) long before March 2005. Erap has also admitted that Aquino was his godson, most likely in Aquino�s marriage, when Lacson, Aquino�s boss, was a major player in the Erap government and was being groomed by the power brokers (Mark Jimenez, Jinggoy Estrada and the Chinese Mafia) to be Erap�s successor in 2004. The four major dramatis personae in this drama were/are clearly linked to each other: Aragoncillo, Aquino, Erap, Lacson. Erap first met Aragoncillo in 1999 when he made a state visit to Washington DC and Aragoncillo was a staff member of the Clinton White House. Since then, Aragoncillo made 15 trips to the Philippines from 2000 to June 2005. It is my belief, though I have no proof, that it was Lacson, not Erap, whom Aragoncillo met with mostly, during his 15 visits to Manila. For one thing, Erap had been deposed in January 2001 and was no longer a significant player. For another, Erap has a superficial personality. With Erap, what you see is what you get, which is not much. It is Lacson who has a complex personality: wily, manipulative, secretive, inscrutably poker-faced, basically amoral, able to operate simultaneously at several levels, comfortable working in the darkest shadows. All the ideal personality traits of a master spy. And terribly ambitious. It is my belief, though again I have no proof, that when Lacson went to Washington DC in December 2000, he established contact with Erap�s friend Aragoncillo, at that time ensconced in the Vice-President�s Office in the White House, in transit between Al Gore and Dick Cheney. This initial contact would explain why Aragoncillo subsequently made so many trips (14) to the Philippines, even after Erap had been removed from power. When questioned by media on the purpose of his December 2000 trip to Washington, Lacson gave different reasons: to visit his family, to receive an award from an industrial security organization, to ask the US Congress for a $26 million grant for his recently established PNP Foundation. (See my article �PNP: Ping Next President,� Dec. 12, 2000, and subsequent articles, all archived in www.tapatt.org). Each of these three reasons may have been valid, but the real reason, it turned out, was his apparent attempt to sell himself to the Americans as a fast-track (meaning, by coup d�etat) alternative to both the sinking Erap and the rising Gloria Arroyo. His proposal was supposedly turned down. What has all this got to do with all the current speculation about an impending declaration of emergency rule short of martial law, supposedly contained in Executive Order No. 467? Plenty. The revelation in American media (CNN, ABC News, the New York Times, and the Washington Post) that Aragoncillo stole secret documents not only from the FBI but also from Dick Cheney�s office in the White House ratchets up the fall-out from this scandal. Dick Cheney is the leading figure in the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), the neo-conservative grouping founded in 1997 that has hijacked US foreign, defense and domestic security policies ever since George W. Bush (and Cheney) moved to the White House in January 2001. (See my article �Uncle Dick and the PNAC,� Sept. 07, 2004.) Among the priorities of the PNAC, as stated in its policy recommendations of September 2000, one year before 9/11, are: establish full military control of the Middle East, encourage regime change in Beijing, increase US forces in Southeast Asia. I have mentioned this several times in this space, but let me repeat it here: By withdrawing the tiny Philippine contingent from Iraq, by signing an oil exploration joint agreement with Beijing, and by failing to move decisively against the Jamaah Islamiyah in Mindanao, President Arroyo has unwittingly undermined, however tangentially, those three PNAC priorities, and they want her out. ABC News has been quoted by the Inquirer that �officials say the classified material, which Aragoncillo stole from the Vice-President�s office, included damaging dossiers on the President of the Philippines. He then passed those on to opposition politicians planning a coup in the Pacific nation�.� How damaging? Probably more damaging than those he stole from the FBI database. After all, the FBI snoops are only bureaucrats performing their bureaucratic functions. Cheney and the PNAC that he heads dictate policy and would have more detailed information on anyone whom they want to see removed from office. How damaging? Possibly details about the dollar deposits, real estate holdings and other assets of husband and wife in the US, and possibly details about his and her (separate) sexual peccadilloes. I cannot imagine anything more damaging than this. All of which may tumble out into the open when the indictments against Aquino are made public soon. In anticipation of the public uproar that will greet these revelations, the Arroyo government is deliberately sending signals that suggest an impending declaration of emergency rule, short of martial law, to stifle dissent, discourage demos, etc. The proffered justification is the high price of oil and the need to protect the public from its consequences by government take-over of strategic industries, including oil, power, communications and transportation companies. But this is a non-sequitur. The price of oil in the world market has been dropping from $69 to $60.55 per barrel in the past three weeks. Even finance secretary Gary Teves has registered his dissenting opinion that �it is difficult to imagine how a government suffering from fiscal problems would be able to run those (power) firms without aggravating its (own) budget difficulties.� (Inquirer, Oct. 12.) I would not be surprised if the credible and straight-talking Gary Teves is fired or is forced to resign soon. It is also possible that Lacson already has those damaging dossiers stolen by Aragoncillo from Dick Cheney�s office, but was/is biding his time to make them public until he is ready with his own grab for power, which would be distinct and separate from Binay�s and Morales� silly Solidarity �caretaker (revolutionary) council� that seeks to restore Erap to the presidency. The Americans may have unwittingly upset Lacson�s plans, but it does not necessarily mean that they are solicitous about GMA�s future either. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo Reactions to �Espying Emergency Rule� Hi Antonio: Your article is very revealing. There has been talk in the media about martial law but I paid no attention to it. However, your article is very revealing in the sense that it gives the deep and hidden happenings to our country. Frankly, I don't think that there would be martial law. Many Congressmen and Senators are against it. Unless there is a serious emergency happening in our country, I don't think GMA would place the country under Martial Law. If the Oakland mutineers fought back, you can expect GMA to react by placing the country under Martial Law. Not unless something like the Oakland mutiny happens, I don't think GMA would consider placing the country under Martial Law. GMA is a very strict person just like her father, the late President Diosdado Macapagal. Under the Constitution, the President may place the country under Martial Law but it is only effective for 6 months. After that, she has got to get the consent of Congress for the Martial Law to continue. Also there is a provision in the Constitution that says that Martial Law does not suspend any provision of the Constitution. We will just see how the GMA administration would implement Martial Law should it ever be declared. The People's Power government has a notorious reputation of ignoring the law when it is disadvantageous to them. One thing, you could expect newspapers critical of her administration to be closed down. And she might also close down newspapers that are not very cooperative with her administration. That is almost certain that GMA would do that in spite of the provision in the Constitution that says Martial Law does not suspend the Constitution. Amando Doronila said that we need a revolution to solve our problems. Mr. Doronila simply doesn't know what he is talking about. The first victim of any violent shake-up in our government is the press. Marcos closed down all newspapers critical of his administration. Cory did the same. So a violent shake-up in our government would be advantageous to some newspapers and disadvantageous to others. Before Martial Law, Manila Times was the no. 1 newspaper in the Philippines, capturing more than 60 % of the market. Because the Manila Times was very critical of the Marcos Administration, it was immediately closed when Martial Law was declared. The only newspaper that was not closed was Bulletin Today. And because Bulletin Today survived the crisis of Martial Law, it has captured 60 % of the newspaper reading public in our country. Because of the policies of moderation that Bulletin Today implemented before, during and after Martial Law, it survived the Cory Administration. That is why up to now, Bulletin Today still maintains its position as the dominant newspaper in our country. Because of the shake-up during the Marcos and Cory administrations, our press has adapted themselves considerably. Right now, no newspaper is blatantly anti-administration. They may be critical of the government but they exercise some restraint in their exercise of free press. Before Martial Law, practically all newspapers were very much anti-administration. They didn't believe that Marcos would have the guts to close all of them. Also EDSA III proved that it is impossible that somehow the press would not be affected by any violent shake-up in our government. The demonstrators in EDSA III was definitely anti-press destroying the vehicles that the press sent to cover their demonstrations. Had EDSA III succeeded, you could expect some newspapers to be closed down. This is the reason why the press should not preach any violent overthrow of our government. They will be the first ones to get hurt should a violent shake-up of our government occur. They may be critical of the government, like many of your articles are, but this criticism is in a form of a constructive criticism. They are critical of the government because they are concerned about what is happening to their country but they should also listen to the side of the government in this dialogue. Whatever defects our government has, press freedom guarantees that everybody would have an equal voice and that nobody would get hurt because of his ideas. Preaching a violent overthrow of the government nullifies press freedom. When a violent shake-up of government occurs, the winning party in this confrontation earns the right to speak and to make his voice heard over the others and the losing party in this confrontation better keep his mouth shut or face the consequences. You may argue that this may appear as unfair but as the saying goes, there is nothing unfair in love and in war. A violent confrontation means that the day of argumentation is over. The winning party has decided and the losing party has to accept his loss or face the consequences. That is why a violent shake-up in the government is not good for press freedom. Thanks that our press has adjusted themselves accordingly to the realities of our life. Ramon del Gallego, [email protected] October 13, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww This is sounding like an echo but...BRAVISSIMO TONY! I suggest that this and other columns be compiled by schools - high and college - to be discussed in regular ABAYA FORUMS ending with action plans on how the youth can organize moves (not street rallies that are destructive and time wasting or even dangerous) using modern communications, digital and satellite technology, harnessing youth working in government and private offices working towards peaceful reforms ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS. Let us avoid the bomba ningas cogon to fizzle out syndrome! Time is running out, so let us bring in the youth. They are to inherit the country! Tony Joaquin, [email protected] Daly City, California, October 13, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww What a scenario, Mr. Abaya. It is not just "mind-boggling". It is scary. "Regime change" in China! Indeed! Wow! Endtimes Dido? The Rupture? And here is the Philippines. Our military, very diligent with small things, such as cutting off the heads of some people in Samar na nakahandcuff na, that means wala ng laban, or brutalizing unarmed civilians in the presence of their young children. Habang tatlong machine guns ang nakakasa. And the Trapos...bakit binibigyan pa iyan ng pansin ng ABS-CBN. Mon, I posted portions of Mr. Abaya's last column, the one where he cited Col. Morales, about the NPA and the MILF, walang panalo daw. Bakit? Kasi mga Pilipino din daw iyang mga iyan, kahit matagal na sa Netherlands at nagbabasa ng Koran, katulad sa kanyang AFP, at PT (not Ernie Delfin's "Progressive Times", but "Pamahalaan ng mga Trapo"). Anyway, I must confess that I read many more of your pieces, Mr. Abaya, than I read Conrad de Quiroz. Yuko, in this possible War to End All Wars, that Mr. Abaya might be thinking, saan ba ang mga Samurai papanig kaya? Ikaw, I know na kasama ka nina Tonette Binsol, Susan Fujita, Dr. Ed del Rosario (habang umiirap ka kay Gloria) na namumulot ng cherry blossoms at nanghuhuli ng butete para gawing kinilaw at ipakakain sa mga chulalay ni Gloria. To use the word of Tayan Kong. I read somewhere though that the leadership in Japan are rethinking their non-military posture in the world. And many years ago, we were reading in our classes in international politics that if Japan wishes, it can become a nuclear power in a short time. Iyong Pilipinas, laruan lang tayo. The "Proxy War" that I adverted to some months ago, could eventually happen in Perlas ng Silangan. Cesar Torres, [email protected] October 13, 2005 MY REPLY. No end-times scenario, as far as regime change in Beijing is concerned. But there might be one in Israel, as far as many Christian fundamentalists are concerned. They were the biggest single bloc of supporters of George W. Bush in the 2004 elections. They believe that the final battle between Good and Evil, foretold in the Bible, may have already begun in Iraq, which is why they support Bush�s Middle East policy. According to their belief, in the final battle, most of the population of Israel will be wiped out, except for 144,000, who will convert to Christianity. This will be the signal for the Second Coming of Christ and the End Times. (See my article �Understanding Bush,� Oct. 15, 2003 in www.tapatt.org.) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, I don't care if you dislike Lacson. Whatever else you may think of him, he is not amoral. GMA is. To her, the end justifies all means. Ping is no hypocrite, which is why he does not make for a good politician, by Philippine traditional standards. He does not smile at people whom he does not know, unless they smile at him first. He will not go out of his way to befriend people. But he lives by rules that he strictly follows, and expects those who work for and with him to so similarly follow the rules. "What is right must be kept right. What is wrong must be set right". But never mind. You are too biased to believe anything good about the man. You probably believe the likes of that cretin Corpuz and that liar Rosebud. Lito Banayo, [email protected] October 13, 2005 NOTE: Lito is Sen. Lacson�s chief political lieutenant. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww How about Noli de Castro as the Public Official #2? Gonzalo Policarpio, [email protected] October 15, 2005 MY REPLY. There is absolutely no proof, not even any suggestion, that Noli de Castro is in any way involved in the espionage caper. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I enjoyed your interesting chat with Ces Drilon on ANC last night. There was one question Ces raised about GMA's newfound courage in fighting off her detractors. Well, I guess fearless Gloria wants to make good her earlier threat to fight the bullies in the schoolyard. After all, didn't Forbes magazine name her Asia's Iron Lady? I share Ces' observation that indeed GMA has raised the flag to do battle with her critics. GMA was seen ecstatic and in high spirits after that impeachment, in a manner that her dealings with every one, particularly her detractors, were noticeably profused with friendliness and civility. All this has changed and she transformed quickly to her usual "taray" self when Frank Drilon pressed for a senate investigation of the Northrail contract, coming on the heels of the Venable controversy and Gudani-Balutan senate testimony. Obviously GMA had thought her struggles were over when she won the battle of impeachment at the House, only to realize that the battle has shifted to the Senate. I'm no big fan of Gloria, but her detractors have left her no choice but to fight back. Her political enemies want her deposed and refused her offer of truce or wait till next impeachment time in June next year, so she can proceed with her work. They will not allow her a moment of peace. This is where, I believe, the opposition has lost some grounds in their battle for public sympathy. People are fed up with politics and want some peace too so they can go on with their work too. I think the Aragoncillo-Aquino mess has helped embolden GMA's resolve to fight back, given justification by FBI reports that the opposition plans to remove her in a coup. Also, by allowing an unprecedented number of 4,500 US troops to participate in war games here, was a smart move by GMA as this will strengthen her otherwise obscure position in Washington. Gloria knows she needs all this and more in order to survive her political battles. I wonder if the Supreme Court will trash EO 464 as unconstitutional. If not, expect bigger, and probably more controversial, things to happen. We are living in interesting times, don't we? Cesar M. de los Reyes, [email protected] October 15, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony---Very good analysis of the material unearthed from The White House in the espionage caper or crime? Thanks, Josie Lichauco, [email protected] October 16, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww October 11, 2005 TO THE WHOLE PROVINCE Re: Endorsement of GUIDELINES IN A TIME OF CRISIS to Jesuits and Jesuit Institutions of the Philippine Province With this letter, I endorse to all Jesuits, Jesuit communities and Jesuit apostolic institutions of the Philippine Province, the attached Guidelines in a Time of Confusion and Crisis, produced by our Province Commission on the Social Apostolate. These Guidelines, produced after much discussion and consultation, are an attempt to provide Christian moral reflection on our present national situation of political crisis and confusion. I ask that these Guidelines be read, reflected and prayed upon, and made the subject of serious discernment, towards action, by individuals, communities, and institutions. They may be shared with others who are seeking direction and guidance in our troubled times. I know that not all will agree with what is presented here: some will judge that the Guidelines go �too far�; others will doubtless think they do not go �far enough.� For my part, I personally believe that these Guidelines offer sound directions to help us �read� our present situation and to orient us in our common search for authentic solutions to the grave problems of our country today. Nonetheless, these Guidelines are not presented as positions that all are compelled to accept and adhere to. If some, in conscience, differ with the positions taken here, let that dissent be presented with civility and intelligence, as input for the continuing task of communal discernment towards that which will serve the true good of our country. Let us be united in prayer and deep concern for our country and our people. May the Lord show us the way toward the truth, freedom and justice that our people yearn for. May God bless us with courage and hope. Fraternally in our Lord, DANIEL PATRICK L. HUANG, S.J. Provincial =========================================== SOME GUIDELINES IN A TIME OF CONFUSION AND CRISIS for Jesuits and Jesuit Institutions of the Philippine Province 1. The struggle to bring out the truth must go on. The freedom to advocate this struggle must be upheld. The President has not sufficiently rendered an account to the people where serious charges have been raised against her, and efforts to hide the facts only confirm the suspicions of many. To dismiss the concern for truth in the name of stability is to condone the culture of impunity, by which those in power have long been able to commit crimes unpunished, and our people have become cynical accepting corruption and deceit as normal in our public life. 2. Those who claim that the �rule of law� was triumphant in the recent impeachment proceedings confuse proceduralism with law. While it is true that the procedures of law were fulfilled, the spirit of the law was subverted. Evidence was not allowed to emerge. 3. Peaceful and legal means that protect and strengthen our democratic institutions must be used in the continued search to bring out the truth. In this same spirit, the legislature, especially the Senate, must not be remiss in its oversight functions, to ensure the system of checks and balances set in place by the Constitution. Likewise, care should be taken that concrete actions do not support or strengthen groups with covert anti-democratic, adventurist or power-grabbing agenda. 4. We respect the decision of those, who in conscience have reached a judgment that the President should not remain in office. Part of this process is the moral obligation to seriously consider alternatives that will be truly for the good of the country, and not abet the struggle for power among elite and corrupt politicians. 5. The search for the truth must include a search into the deeper truth of Philippine political life, the factors which make the present crisis just one of a series of political crises that hinder the country�s development. It is necessary to listen to, reflect seriously on, and address the concerns of a large majority of people who seem apathetic or whose dissatisfaction does not seem to translate into political action. Some, for example, have lost trust in all politicians, of whatever camp. Others, especially those in the provinces, feel excluded by and resentful of what they perceive to be Manila deciding for the country again. Efforts must be made to address this disillusionment and sense of exclusion, so that our people might be motivated to participate more vigorously in our country�s political life. 6. If many of our people seem to be uninvolved or uninterested, it is primarily because of an overriding concern for economic survival during very hard times. The real and urgent concerns of the poor should be given highest priority amidst all efforts to search for truth. Indeed, the search for the truth is integrally linked to the fate of the poor. Corruption and dishonesty have made the lot of the poor worse. 7. Programs and initiatives from both government and the private sector to address the urgent needs of the poor, in fields such as education, health, housing, livelihood, and the like, should continue to be supported, and indeed intensified. This is especially urgent in view of the looming international oil crisis. 8. While there may be reasons to consider amending the Constitution for the sake of greater responsiveness to the needs and aspirations of our people, charter change as a diversionary tactic in times of political conflict, or as a means of perpetuating elite democracy, should be rejected. Thus, the rush to change the Constitution, especially through a Constituent Assembly, should be resisted. Furthermore, while major constitutional changes such as parliamentarism and federalism may seem to have merit, their concrete realization and implications should be carefully studied and discussed, rather than prematurely decided upon. 9. There may be no clear solutions or exit strategies to our present state. But our past history, especially during the Martial Law years, reminds us that we can continue being vigilant and work for truth and justice even when the alternatives are not clear. Thus, the following courses of action should be pursued: a. Our educational institutions, parishes and other institutions should become centers for conscientization. Discernment groups must be organized, to combat apathy, to heighten awareness and involvement, and to prepare for future action. We echo the call of the CBCP in their statement of 10 July 2005, to �urge our people in our parish and religious communities, our religious organizations and movements, our Basic Ecclesiasticall Communities to come and pray together, reason, decide and act together always to the end the will of God prevail in the political order.� b. Conscientization that leads to organizing and reorganizing base groups and forming community or sectoral organizations should be given priority. Such groups can also be invited to deal with local problems, to engage local government, and to do network-building with other sympathetic groups. c. These and other groups should be mobilized towards vigilance, monitoring: �first, the continued effectiveness of government programs for the poor; �secondly, appointment to public offices made by the President; �third, acts of apparent retribution against those who are critical of the government and the President; �fourth, the actual use of pork barrel by legislators and their possible abuse of it for themselves; �fifth, the preparations for forthcoming electoral exercises, through advocacy for automation, and the continuing task of voters� education; �sixth, the use of funds that will be made available in the event of a Peace Agreement in Mindanao. d. Deeper study and reflection on institutional alternatives (such as parliamentarism, federalism, etc.) should be conducted at various levels, from university think-tanks to grass-roots groups. SOCIETY OF JESUS, PHILIPPINE PROVINCE COMMISSION ON THE SOCIAL APOSTOLATE Albert E. Alejo, S.J. Miguel B. Lambino, S.J. Jose Cecilio J. Magadia, S.J. Antonio F. Moreno, S.J. Karel S. San Juan, S.J. Primitivo E. Viray, S.J. Peter W. Walpole, S.J. Roberto C. Yap, S.J. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |