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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| An Endgame Scenario
By Antonio C. Abaya Written on Feb. 25, 2008 For the Standard Today, February 26 issue So how will all this end? There are deliberate efforts to revive People Power: nuns and priests linking arms to protect star witness Jun Lozada, bishops issuing cryptic statements about �communal action,� middle-class types signing pro-forma manifestoes about corruption and immoderate greed, all kinds of gimmicks to underline the Gloria Resign! advocacy, endless prayer rallies in Catholic school campuses and churches. Will all this result in Edsa 3 (or 4) anytime soon? I doubt it. Keep in mind that Edsa 1 did not happen overnight, or even over a few weeks. It started with the assassination of Ninoy Aquino on August 21, 1983. Public outrage among the middle-and working-classes over this dastardly act reached its apex at his funeral about a week later. But the weekly rallies and demonstrations in Makati and elsewhere against the Marcos regime was a low and slow boil that took months and months to reach flashpoint on Feb. 25 1986, and it needed snap presidential elections on Feb. 7, plus a military revolt on Feb. 22 and an appeal from Cardinal Sin to the urban middle classes to save that revolt from being smothered by Marcos� loyalist military.. Edsa 1 can be said to have taken two years and six months � Aug. 21, 1983 to Feb. 25, 1986 � to reach flashpoint of sufficient heat and energy to force Marcos and his family out of Malacanang. If the putative Edsa 3 (or 4) were to be superimposed on this timeline, and the trigger were the revelations of Jun Lozada on Feb. 5, 2008, flashpoint would not be reached until about August 2010. And Jun Lozada would still be, thankfully, very much alive. Even if he were murdered, a la Dacer, after he was picked up by unidentified men at the NAIA tarmac - as posited by my fellow columnist Rudy Romero - his death would not have sparked public outrage since he was an unknown nobody then. By August 2010, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo would be on her first months as prime minister or as president on a third term, the Constitution having been amended in 2009 to enable her to remain in power legally and constitutionally beyond June 30, 2010, by the Kampi-Lakas dominated Congress, as is the ill-disguised aim of the ChaCha Road Show inaugurated last Feb. 12 by Albay Gov. Joey �Bitch� Salceda. For President Arroyo to be forced to step down from power in the coming weeks or months, a) another major corruption scandal has to explode in her face, and b) the idealistic elements in the military � as distinguished from military mercenaries in the pay of trapos � must intervene. Will this happen? I honestly do not know. What major scandal? My candidate is the P728 million fertilizer scandal which the Senate was investigating in 2006 when the principal bureaucrat involved � Agriculture Under-Secretary Joc Joc Bolante � avoided appearance by going abroad, a now familiar Malacanang tactic. But while Joc Joc was in mid-flight between Seoul and Los Angeles , the US Embassy in Manila cancelled his US visa, so that when he landed in LA he was arrested for having (naturally) an expired visa. He is being held in a federal prison in Wisconsin , pending approval of his application for political asylum, which has given US authorities a bargaining chip with him: tell us what you know about the fertilizer scam and we might give you political asylum. He does not want to come back to the Philippines , which suggests that he knows that what he knows could shorten his life if he were to come back. When the scam was being investigated by the Senate, it was suspected that the P728 million were diverted to the campaign kitty of President Arroyo in the 2004 elections. It is possible the funds were also diverted to another scam. The Americans are interested because these were US taxpayers� money given as aid and misappropriating them makes recipient foreign officials involved subject to arrest and imprisonment in the US There is also some derogatory dossiers about PGMA that were stolen from the desk of VP Dick Cheney in the White House by the US-designated spy (against Arroyo) Fil-Am Marine Sgt Leandro Aragoncillo, who turned double-agent when his Philippine contacts convinced him to also spy for them in Washington. Aragoncillo is serving a ten-year sentence for illegally possessing classified information (plea-bargained from �espionage�) , while his accomplice, Michael Ray Aquino (one of the lieutenants of former police general, Panfilo Lacson) is serving six years., both in federal prisons. The details are too many to even only summarize here, but my articles on the case, between September and December 2005, can be accessed in www.tapatt.org ... Will the Americans play the Bolante and Aragoncillo cards soon? That remains to be seen. But the neo-cons in power in Washington DC , led by Vice President Cheney, did scheme, unsuccessfully, to remove PGMA from power in 2004-2005, indirectly through the �Hello Garci� tapes and the resulting brouhaha. Again, the details of this plot are in my articles of from September to December 2005. archived in www.tapatt.org. If the Americans reveal, through Filipino surrogates, what they know from Bolante and Aragoncillo, the resulting scandal could accelerate the downfall of President Arroyo, but the question will arise again: how will all this end? While the Americans favored Estrada in 2005 to replace President Arroyo, he has been scratched from their short list because of his apparent involvement with Aragoncillo�s pilferage of those derogatory dossiers on Arroyo from Cheney�s desk in the White House. The Americans are no doubt looking for a suitable alternative. They may � I am not saying, �will� � look at the results of a Social Weather Stations public opinion survey conducted between November 30 and December 3 last year among 1,200 respondents equally distributed in Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao . The survey asked: �Under the present Constitution, the term of President Arroyo is only up to the year 2010 and there will be an election for president in May 2010. Who in your opinion are the good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as President?� No list of names was provided, and respondents were allowed to give up to three names. The results: 30 percent for Noli de Castro, 27 for Manny Villar, 23 for Loren Legarda, 20 for Mar Roxas, 17 gave no answer, 15 for Francis Escudero, 13 for Panfilo Lacson, 9 for Joseph Estrada, 4 for Miriam Defensor-Santiago, 3 for Antonio Trillanes, 3 for Peter Alan Cayetano, 2 for Francis Pangilinan, and 2 for Jinggoy Estrada. In a similar survey conducted in September 2007, Legarda got 44 percent, de Castro 25, Villar 18, and Lacson 18. If a similar survey were conducted in March 2008, I do not know what percentage Jun Lozada would get, but he will certainly be among the top five. Not that I am proposing a Jun Lozada-for-President movement. I am just inputting his indisputable popularity.. My point is that if President Arroyo were forced out of office in the next few weeks or months, the constitutional successor, Noli de Castro, would be a genuinely popular replacement and there would be no need for a chaotic snap election, as some people are naively pushing for, that will just derail our economic recovery and divide the already fragmented body politic. (Those who are pushing for snap elections apparently do not know that this is not provided for in the Constitution, except under conditions that do not exist in 2008. They also apparently do not know � or have simply forgotten � that the winner of the February 1986 snap elections was Ferdinand Marcos, as officially proclaimed by the Comelec then. Cory Aquino was elevated to the presidency by a revolutionary process, not by election.) The stumblebum Comelec should not be made to conduct another electoral exercise unless and until it has been thoroughly revamped and the rules of electoral engagement re-written, which could happen by 2010 if electoral reforms were started in 2008, all according to the Constitution. I realize that the seven or eight presidential wannabes would not be happy with this scenario since their presidential ambitions in 2010 would be jeopardized if Noli de Castro were to turn out to be a reformist leader in the next two years. But the advantage to a mere handful should not outweigh the advantage to an entire nation. ***** Reactions to [email protected]. Other articles in www.tapatt.org and in acabaya.blogspot.com. NOTE: Transmission to mydestiny.net addresses is being blocked by the server on the grounds that these are unsolicited bulk email. If you are experiencing this blocking, we suggest you move to a hotmail or a gmail address. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �An Endgame Scenario� Noli de Castro: All Set? Luli Arroyo defends her Mother Hi, Tony! I think what we Filipinos should think about is the post-GMA scenario. I think GMA's leaving will just be a matter of time. The question is, who will replace her? A junta? The same politicians like Lacson, Erap (oh my God!), Pimentel, Madrigal, etc? God forbid! Who then do we have in mind, and how do WE get them to govern? The left is waiting at the wings. but the military will prevent them from taking power. So what happens next? I think this is one scenario we all should think about now. Let's forget GMA. She will be past tense soon. Let�s stop talking about ZTE, Jun Lozada, etc. They will become passe' when GMA leaves. But what happens next????? Gerardo Delgado, (by email), Changmai , Thailand , Feb. 26, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, Thank you very much for sending me a copy of this mail. It went into my yahoo spam but it was a good thing I got it out before deleting my spam mails. Just a few things regarding your question - how will this end? Just my two cents on what's currently happening to this country. It will end if those involved will just be honest enough to tell ALL and expose the crooks from the crookedly corrupt from the absolutely evil bitches and sons of bitches in government. It won't end if the Senate is too lame to call for physical action and take these people out of government and actually demand for it. It won't end if the Supreme Court does nothing but fall and follow the shadow of the Pasig . It won't end since the Congress has already been bought, lot-stock-and barrel by Pasig . It won't end until the Church unites and finds its voice and call for another People Power. It won't end until everyone who still has some sense of integrity and love for country speaks up because from the looks of it - Jun Lozada will eventually be killed or he will lose his voice by being the only one brave enough to speak up after these people frightened the living daylights out of him, threatened his entire family. The whole country is already at the mercies of these legal crooks and I am ashamed to be called a Filipino because it does prove one thing - Filipinos are for sale, Filipinos are cheap and Filipinos do NOT DESERVE their democracy. Filipinos have no sense of culture, they have no sense of values, they have no morals and they have no soul. If the sort Filipino sitting in Government - ALL OF THEM - are exactly the kind and type of Filipino I just described - then we are doomed. And we ARE doomed because those in government - from the highest seat in the land to the lowest seat are all corrupt! And I will tell every Juan Dela Cruz to get out while they still can and leave this God-forsaken country. How do I know they are all corrupt? Has anyone else spoken up that came from "her side" of the fence? Would our country be so pathetic if those who sat from EDSA 1 are indeed true to their word and lead the country into greatness instead of being leaders of corruption and usurpers of power? Had Marcos been unfazed by a corrupt social climber - the Philippines would be a leader in Asia . But how will it even begin to change? The media - television alone - is not carrying any news or coverage of the ongoing Senate hearing and the only station tuned in on the Senate is "Boses" of NBN channel 4 - a government channel - and the hosts of this show have the nerve and audacity to air their lopsided opinions of how Jun Lozada or any anti-government witness replies to the questions of the Senators. What do you call that then? Aren't newscasters and tv hosts supposed to be objective and NOT SIDE with anyone? Being a government channel - these hosts have no business calling themselves hosts and just have a show for themselves so they can listen to themselves talk. I call for a boycott of Channel 4, 9 and IBC 13 - those channels who air that show BOSES. Boses (Voice) doesn't air an objective point of view, just their own "voices". (Where have you been all these months? ANC � Channel 27 in my area � had been carrying live telecasts of the Senate hearings on the ZTE NBN scandal, from Day One in Sept. 2007. Feeds from ANC have been shown on ABS-CBN Ch. 2 and DZMM Teleradyo on Channel 26. You have to go cable to get ANC. ACA) Local channels don't air the live coverage unless during hourly news breaks and that's all the public will ever find out. Because advertisers prefer to rule them. These channels should be ashamed of their policies. The general mentality of Filipinos are lorded over by stupid telenobelas that cater to the dumb and stupid. What those who want change should do is list down ALL the corrupt unsolved racketeering, scandal, scams allotted to PGMA and her henchmen, not just her - include her husband as well and those who support her blindly and WHY they support her blindly. Find out the permits given to loggings when logging has already been banned in the ENTIRE country. Find out what previous cases were filed against current supporters in previous terms that "died" a natural death when she sat. List down ALL the appointees and find out WHY these people are appointed even if they hardly qualify to be grade 1 teachers. Until someone does an unadulterated list and exposes all the corruption - and actually stop bickering and unite with one another against this administration - NOTHING will happen, it will NOT END. Thanks and good day to you. Jennifer Xavier, (by email), Feb. 26, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, What do you think of Dante Madriaga's testimony at the Senate hearing today? (I would be careful. ACA) If he were dishing out the truth, how would this affect the timeframe for the Filipinos to reach a flashpoint? I have no doubt that more horror fantasies will be spun by you know who. How long can the Filipinos take these insults? As Ms. Deles said, more people are enraged because 'gina-gago' na tayo. I agree with you that we should be concerned about the aftermath of the fall of the incumbent. EDSA 3 or 4 is not the way to make her fall. But whichever way she falls...and she better fall hard...nothing much will happen unless WE start with little changes such as:��. FOR EVERYONE: be willing to be inconvenienced and experience discomfort for the sake of order and discipline...practice patience, where patience may be defined as the ability to be pleasant while waiting... In other words, if each one of us will start acting in an orderly and discipline way, no matter how seemingly small and insignificant these acts may be, we would have taken the first baby steps towards real change in our country. This is my two cents worth... Millet S. Castro, (by email), Feb. 26, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya: Your writings and analysis of possible scenarios for rapid change of leadership was well-written. But you're not alone in this expertise. There are thousands of Filipinos, who are very expert on this kind of analytical scenarios. Most of them did not even finish Journalism course, or have no profession in writing. You could find them in barber shops, in front of sari-sari stores with their fighting cocks, in lobbys of big offices, and many more. These type of people have even evolved into now moderators and participants in different online groups discussing these same scenarios. (I hate to say say, I'm one of them, too.) We are comparable to the traditional tsismosos and tsimosas pretending to be experts, motivating these rallies, demonstrations, and people's power EDSA revolt to change leaderships, everytime there are irregularities and scandals. In fact, I could not just count as thousands, but millions like us are good in analysing who are good replacements for top leaderships everytime there are scandals in the Presidency. What we have failed, however, are our own strategies on how these irregularities and scandals would not happen again when we change the leaderships. Millions of Filipinos are blind followers, who don't really know what's the roots of all these evils, and how to stop these scandals. Changing rapidly an evil with another evil will not change our country to progress. Even if we come to election time as the right time to replace leaderships, we could not still resolve the scandals in our country, because the politicians that are presented to us to be elected in the ballots are the same evils or children of evils just waiting for the chance to become the new evils of our society. What we really need now is for all people from around the Philippines to have their own assemblies, gather together, and speak together who would be their next genuine leaders in the forthcoming eelectoral terms. Filipinos must have real, authentic leaders that must be selected from assemblies, until the next real election comes. It's not expensive, if we should compare the money stolen from us by the evil politicians whom we wrongly elect on election times. Filipinos should not wait for proclamations and presentations of candidates from the goups of evils that will scandalize and create a different havoc with their new term. What we need now, until election time comes are people's candidates that will face these candidates of evils in the next elections. In fact, if we could only go back to the times of barangays, wherein leaders were chosen from mere people's assemblies, it would be better and economical for our government. Writers, analysts, online moderators and participants, tsismosos and tsismosas: this is what we should start spreading now - NEW LEADERS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM OUR OWN RANKS, NOT LEADERS THAT WILL BE PRESENTED TO US AGAIN BY THE PRESENT EVILS OF OUR SOCIETY. Jess Guim, (by email), New York City , Feb 26, 2008 (In reply to your gratuitous insult, I could also mention that there are millions of self-proclaimed analysts out there � in barber shops, in shopping malls, in jeepney stops, in massage parlors, in squatter colonies, in cockfight derbies, in beer gardens, even in old folks kaffeeklatsches 9,000 miles away � who fervently believe that they have the sure-fire solution to the problems of this country, such as organizing assemblies to produce genuine leaders blah blah blah blah. Tell me, how many assemblies have you organized lately? ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Over the past few weeks that I have been receiving regular Emails from you, I have been getting the picture of what is going on in the Philippines . I must confess that I have given up on the prospect of seeing real reform in the government many years ago and have not bothered to even check for any signs of change. The politics of corruption has pervaded the country for such a long time that it is second nature to perpetuate it the minute they got into office. When I left in 1964, the country was used to changing governments every four years. It took that long to get rid of the President and his cohorts. The succeeding administration promises reform and soon as they get elected, they proceeded to raid the government coffers as if they were their own leaving the country ever poorer. Judging from what I have been learning, it hasn't changed much. I went home in November last year for my rare trip to the Philippines for my 50th high school reunion and was rally taken aback by the state of my school which used to have only around 800 students and is now 4 or 5 thousand students. It was the premier public school in Nueva Ecija. Our section alone produced at least 13 doctors that I can presently recall. Seeing the conditions that the students now endure, with leaking roof and flooding floors, remind you of schools in Africa that you see on television. In contrast to these depressing conditions in the provinces are large tracts of seeming booming economy in Metro Manila with megamalls with crowded stores and people buying. I wonder how long could these megamalls be sustained? Expecting the overseas workers to keep this up is unrealistic and short sighted. The fleeting nature of these "success" was underscored by an event, when I was shopping with my wife in the Glorietta and Shumart Malls last November, just across the street from the Peninsula Hotel. We had to scamper around to safety as the horde of shoppers and store employees ran past us running away from "gunshots" which in reality were only the "rejas" falling down as store owners closed their shops. Trillanes managed to close the malls with his sideshow in the height of the holiday shopping season. How much the malls and employees lost in the curfew alone should run into a large sum of money. The survey of the respondents from all over the country shows the cynicism they harbor in the state of the political affairs in the Philippines . When they even consider, somebody who has twice tried to overthrow the government and is being tried for treason, as potential candidate for president, it shows the lack of faith in the justice system in the country. It is in this context that I dare join in the discussion of the political realities in the Philippines . It seems that there are many forces aligned against the present president, who in the eyes of the uninitiated like me, have her friends and relatives accused of corruption. But before joining in the fray, may I ask, who are the ones casting the first stone? Just as Jesus have said, he who have not sinned cast the first stone. Most of them probably would walk away. Tony, changing the president does not necessarily change the culture of corruption. It is just a power play to change hands at the till. While it is admirable to remove a corrupt official, the money, the effort and the potential blood shed and the detrimental effect on the economy is not worth it. The tourist have been scared off already with this periodic wild west show coupled by the NPA and the Abbu Sayeff. The US just issued another travel advisory for the Philippines , which should put a damper on any potential increase in the tourist business, which are a good source of income for many Pacific Rim Countries. Let GMA finish her term and if the media and the populace really want a respite from corruption, then help in choosing the candidate not beholden to the established tainted Politicos. It would be a monumental challenge to educate the masses who would gladly sell their votes for the next sack of rice or even a liter of the same. The fascination of some to elect bad actors seems incurable. If the movement is successful, they can always prosecute the guilty parties and keep them in jail for good, not pardoning them to run again. H.M. Cruz, MD, (by email), Feb. 26, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, I am following with great sadness what is happening in our country regarding the $329 million overpricing NBN/ZTE scandal. While it is imperative that we get to the bottom of this corruption scandal. There are people who have axes to grind and behaving like they already reached the bottom of this scandal by imposing punishment and quick vigilante justice while this unfortunate event is still being investigated. Ex-president Joseph Estrada asking to be the interim president in a care taker government is ridiculous and is like putting the horse ahead of the cart. His idea gives another meaning to the term "nanny state." Ex-president Cory Aquino asking Pres. Arroyo to resign from day one is over the top and is a perfect rhyme to the Beatle song: "mother superior jumped the gun." Yes indeed. I am not sure about Jun Lozada either. My guardian angel is whispering something else about him. He was hired to oversee the whole project as the technical adviser and he allowed it to happen? (Lozada was not �hired to oversee the whole project.� He was asked by his good friend Romulo Neri, who is no techno-expert, to act as technical consultant to him (Neri), apparently at no pay. ACA). This is like hiring a security guard to secure the premises but instead allowed the burglars to enter the house and take everything. Now he is being hailed as a "hero" by the opposition. I think he is being used. The people, including the priesthood should calm down and wait for the investigation to finish and punish those who committed the crime and unload the full weight of the law because the TRUTH is still as muddy as the water coming out of the Pasig river. What about the Chinese side of the story? (The record of Chinese �aid� in Africa is that they bribe everyone who needs to be bribed, according to a recent cover story in TIME magazine. ACA) Emil Diaz, Jr., (by email), Vancouver , BC , Canada , Feb. 27, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Sir, If I may add, EDSA 2 also did not happen overnight. IMHO, it started when Estrada was proclaimed in Malolos, Bulacan, 1998. It started as a whispering campaign, saying since Gloria won more votes as VP, she should be president. Never mind that Erap won more votes as VP to Pres. Ramos in 1992. Then everything became the president's fault. From 'unpaid hotel bills in Mindanao' to the fire that consumed an orphanage in Manila , all because Erap was president. After waiting for the constitutional mandate that 2 years before a president can be removed, these people pounced. And the rest, as they say, is history. Robbie Tan, (by email), Feb. 27, 2008 (There is absolutely no comparison at all between the assassination of Ninoy Aquino in 1983 as the trigger of Edsa 1 in 1986, and the inauguration of Erap in Malolos in 1998 as the trigger of Edsa 2 in 2001. The whistle-blowing by Chavit Singson in 2000 is more like it. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The quantified factors favoring Noli de Castro as mentioned, are diminished when whispers about how he acquired unexplained wealth as a media personality before his election as VP is still hounding him, especially among those who care about this country. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on what this poor Nation really need at this time, the "king-makers" are still divided as to who among those you mentioned could lead us out of the mess that Arroyo placed us. If only we can be assured that the Greed, the Avarice, the contempt for the commoner, and all the negative "non-values" shown us by the "supposed leaders" of this forsaken Republic passed and present alike, (with one or two or even three exceptions), we can accept your scenario. The Filipino have been burned too often already and they would not want to be lead into another INFERNO this time around. As I compose my reactions to your article, it pains me no end that we have to take opposite stand on issues that matter. I don't take this delicate matter lightly. I think of our innocent grandchildren and even great-grandchildren who are not aware where we are leading them. Can we not find someone, anyone, who is "just a Little corrupt", "just a little greedy" to lead us out of this morass we are in today? We know there are no saints among us, but certainly there must be someone with a little character and integrity that can lead us out of our present misery. The conjugal tandem have brought us down into the pit of hell. I am sure no other leader after this one can do any worse! Jose Regino, (by email), Zamboanga City , Feb. 27, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Deaar Tony: As usual, I share your thinking and observations about the "Endgame". We like the politicians mentioned in the survey results. However, there is a growing segment of young people who want to see "out-of-the-box" new leaders, new faces. The "in-the-box" leaders are those mentioned in the survey and the others in the Senate. Their mind-set are the same regardless of party affiliations. They all belong to "l'ancien regime" -- same oligarchy or plutocracy, same vested interests, same self-serving pretensions to power and glory. Vladimir Soliman, (by email), Makati City , Feb. 27, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww It seems you are betting that PGMA will extend her term beyond 2010 by being PM. It seems so way off, especially now that PGMA is pronouncing she will step down by the end of her term (no don't tell me that PGMA once changed minds and ran in 2004 - we have way too far situations then and now). If PGMA is booted out, there is indeed no reason for De Castro not to succeed. If that happens, it will be good for Villar's ambitions. I am sure Villar is well-prepared for this scenario. Either, De Castro would not run on his own presidential election while endorsing Villar's candidacy in 2010, or the Vice President will also step-down to give way to the senate president... Also, it might be wrong to assume calculations of dates based on Marcos' time. During that time, people just do not protest and there was never a People Power example yet. The more likely reason why there are no people power at this time is because people does not anymore believe so much that what is being said by anyone is true. Our mass media has been crying wolf all the time and too much. Serafin Dudeo, (by email), California , Feb. 27, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Karmic transitions are historical especially in the political scene. Especially in the Philippines . One of three scenarios are indubitable: 1. GMA and whoever they call FG and sons are assasinated to the happiness of the Filipino people. (The best case). 2. GMA and cronies/relathieves/sycophants et all succeed in rolling with the punches of people dissent and people power. Ttrojan horses are preemptively and proactively orchestrated by them just to keep the Filipino people preoccupied whilst she succeeds in staying in power till 2010, while they commit their greatest crime of atrocities against the coffers of government, frying the people in their own lard in an effort that will see a more acrimonious and atrocious scene compared to what fallen Japanese colonizers did before their fall! (The pessimistic worst case/positive if you are pro-GMA) 3. Divine Intervention once more proves God Does Not Sleep Against Evil in Governance of a Nation if ruled Not According to His Will and with the faithful, He Will Simply Send the Force of Gravity Upon GMA & Octopus Family and let the People Witness Another Humpty Dumpty Great Fall worst than Erap's or Marcos'. (The Middle Path According to Buddha) I bet my Filipino values on the Third Alternative, be that as it may I pray, so be it, amen Aldric Dalumpines, (by email), Feb. 27, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I don�t consider Jun Lozada to be a hero at all. It�s obvious he�s simply being used by the senators from GO to gain the advantage in the next elections. Jun Lozada even admitted that a certain amount of bribe is acceptable. The issue of his kidnapping is now being questioned, because his cellphone was not confiscated, he was even able to eat dinner at Outback, and he was taken to the place he wants to go (i.e. La Salle Greenhills). I read that he committed this sin of omission regarding the wife of Sen. Joker Arroyo. Because he kept silent, it was made to appear the wife invited Lozada to her house and urged him not to testify, when the fact of the matter is, around September before Joey de Venecia testified, Lozada was apprehensive to testify. He was crying and got in touch with the wife to seek legal advice. The wife invited her to the house and talk things over. The wife told him she couldn�t lawyer for him since Lozada, who was a public servant then, would be in conflict with her husband who was a Senator. The wife then advised him he�s not compelled to testify if he doesn�t want to. Thinking this to be just another one of those ordinary free consultations, she didn�t bother to tell this to Joker. So Joker was blatantly surprised why his wife was suddenly implicated in this mess. All in all, it�s pure propaganda and nothing else. Lozada is being used. Plain and simple Pian None, (by email), Feb. 27, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Copy furnished of email to PMA graduates) Dear fellow Cavaliers, Here is an article from Mr. Tony Abaya. It is quite unfortunate that among the mentioned possible presidential candidates in 2010, no one is determined to solve the communist insurgency. This observation is based on their actions and comments in the past. No one among our present political leaders wants to really go all-out against the CPP-NPA-NDF. Until now I am greatly bothered, as a taxpayer, that we are paying the salary and giving pork barrel to known communist-party-list-congressmen in Congress. If you are not, then do not complain if the communist insurgents continue to enjoy both worlds - legitimacy with government funds and illegal activities including revolutionary taxation of both the poor and the rich. Poor Philippines and Filipinos have no strong leader(s) who could fight for their causes and interests. Our leaders are busy fighting each other at the expense of all of us taxpayers. Without effective governance, we just have to rely on ourselves to keep the economy going. Life has to go on despite bad and ineffective leaders. Hector (Tarzan) Tarrazona, (by email), Feb. 27, 2008 PMA Class of '68 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, In my recollection of events from August, 1983 until EDSA, 1986, there is one other important matter that greatly contributed to the alienation of the business and middle classes toward the Marcos regime. Yes, the Ninoy Aquino murder was a brutal wake-up call that showed the viciousness of the dictatorship. But, to a certain extent, Ninoy was viewed as a trapo and an anachronism by a large faction of the population. I do not believe that Ninoy's death, by itself, galvanized the middle forces. The very important ingredient was the dire financial situation that the country faced at that time. In 1983, the Philippines declared a moratorium on its debts to international creditors. It faced sanctions by the IMF. The peso tumbled from P10 to $1 to P25 to $1, virtually chopping in half the purchasing power and net worth of most Filipinos. People tend to forget how difficult the economic environment was during those times. Runaway inflation and capital flight were the order of the day. In desperation, Marcos jettisoned Jimmy Laya as Central Bank governor and replaced him with Jobo Fernandez, he of the famous "Jobo Bills". Jobo's remedies involved great pain for wage-earners and businessmen alike. It was reminiscent of the Vietnam-war era aphorism: "Burn the village to save the village". Jobo raised the cost of money so high that it was almost impossible for medium and small businesses to survive. And even big businesses, like the Ayalas, were hurting tremendously. I remember, for example, that real estate prices were very low in those days because interest rates hovered at 50% per annum, effectively killing off capital spending and consumer spending. Consumer-oriented businesses like San Miguel were taking big hits as well. Belt-tightening was the only way to survive. The severe economic crisis lasted well into 1986. Perhaps more than Ninoy's death, the harsh economic environment sowed the seeds of disaffection between the middle classes, the business establishment and the Marcos regime. I am convinced that this spurred much of the confetti-throwing in Makati . The national mood wasn't very upbeat during the Erap administration, either. The country had just gone through major financial difficulty due to the Asian financial crisis of 1997, wherein the peso again halved in value, from P25 to $1 to P50 to $1. Devaluations hurt the middle class the most because most of their savings are in the local currency, unlike those in the upper classes. And their assets, mostly their homes and small pieces of real property, also devalue significantly. This makes the middle classes feel insecure and vulnerable. So economic conditions are very important in causing the middle class to become disgruntled. I can only contrast the two EDSA's with the present time. The stock market is upbeat, real estate prices have picked up significantly, the peso is incredibly strong. I am not saying that the present administration is responsible for the encouraging economic situation, I would even surmise that luck would have it that we are presently in a favorable economic cycle, which, of course, could also turn unfavorable at a future time. But to be objective, I must submit that economic conditions are not bad enough to make the middle class restless. As a matter of fact, they are better than they were in 2001. I only hope that Gloria Arroyo doesn't push her luck past 2010. Despite her political bungling, she has been very lucky that she is riding on the crest of a positive economic cycle. But that could change in a few years, even a few months. There are talks of recession due to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. Europe will be next to be affected, if it isn't already being affected. Asia , despite some arguments to the contrary, is very vulnerable to an economic crunch in the West. After all, most Asian exports are to the West. I do hope we will be spared any economic difficulties. Although I am sure that many in the opposition, ambitious to gain power, are praying very hard for an economic catastrophe to befall the Philippines . Very truly yours, Juan Deiparine, (by email), Toril, Davao City , Feb. 27, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww NOTE: Because of limited space, this post may be truncated in acabaya.blogspot.com. It appears or will appear complete in www.tapatt.org wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, There is no promising endgame to the current scandal plaguing the country. For me, the rewinding and replaying of the same political scandal is embedded in our democratic subculture. Ours is not only a poor copy but a poor translation of American democracy. It is a version that caters to the world of demagoguery, corruption, and patronage rather than the world of ideas, discipline, and refinement. Just consider the systemic proliferation of mediocre leaders with mediocre ideas and mediocre values leading the mob. Does it make sense then to expect a serious change from this kind of condition? Of course, not! This is impossible since mediocrity and "mob rule" are the prices we pay for our democracy. I suggest a temporary transition led by a tested and an ethical officer and a gentleman surrounded by a class of gentry with refined manners and the discipline of moral self-control. This is a precondition to the non-distracted and no-nonsense "housecleaning." It is only through this transition that we have a better chance to realize our democratic aspirations in the future. Otherwise, we can keep flagellating ourselves on our way to the altar of EDSA 1, 2, 3... Efren Padilla, (by email), Hayward , CA , Feb. 28, 2008 University of California at East Bay (In other words, a revolutionary government led by people who meet your standards. See my subsequent article �Revolutionary Junta.� ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Peace! Instead of talking endlessly on who will be the next president, can't our law makers talk about how to amend the law so that something like this does not happen again. Lozada and Neri talk of structural change, while we have every man's support, can't our law makers put some teeth in the law so that they themselves will not be able to find loopholes for corruption.. Let them seal all the escape routes, so that all civil servants and evil law maker (especially the big fishes) can be made accountable and be punished under our laws. Tama yung ring around the roses, let's give to the Filipino people the right value and the right laws that will allow those values to take root. God bless, Lennie de la Rosa, (by email), Feb. 28, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, If our situation in the Philippines is a fairy tale, it would be easy to choose who will replace PGMA, we will just face the magic mirror and ask, "Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the purest of them all?" But it's not, It's reality and when I see the list, many there has been linked also to corruption. As I said, who should be the candidate who can bring the Philippines to greatness as a nation and who could never be corrupted by anything? I hope that you and the others who seem to know many things can come up with a good recommendation. Ely Lerio, (by email), Feb. 28, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Keen observers will not fail to notice the comedy of errors the whole scheme and scene in our contemporary realpolitik now has become. After the �Hello Garci� scandal (that an NBI director has called the mother of all scams) had been buried alive, breathes another multi-million dollar scam that would soon rock the very foundations of Philippine society and bring it to her knees. If writings on the wall were gauge, simulations of People Power as they actually happened in Edsa I and in Edsa II are fast taking place. Such call for GMA�s final exit or ouster will soon reverberate across the globe as it has begun to inflict major injury to our own collective psyche. Ours has always been a damaged culture and to add insult to injury, we, individually and as a whole, self-destruct. The untiring, endless, even useless Senate proceedings as televised the world over must now come to a halt. In the end, they mean nothing than mere competing political advertising campaigns from either side of the political fence. If one worldview is destroyed by another and so on up to infinity, then we are just moving about in circles. No one member of Senate will stop the vicious cycle of pros and cons and at the end of the day, nothing in aid of legislation would have been achieved. If that happens, the Senate has just been a huge tri-media field of free publicity. As the Senate does its avowed task, it is not far removed a lot of payolas will flow into every door of the institution. The thin membrane that divides the wall between decency and indecency will count its own beneficiaries. Patronage politics is even more strengthened in the unseen process. Since nothing more can disabuse the public mind that something of a high-level corruption has really taken place right at the inner sanctum of Malacanang, what more is there to add in an entirely unmarked, even unstudied and highly untrained discussion of issues brought to the fore? Cory, the principal icon of EDSA Revolt has spoken � prescribes that GMA has to go. In an earlier occasion, FVR, another major icon of that historical event sent across the same plea to GMA�s face. Erap seals all beams, matter-of-factly, short of asking for GMA�s ouster likewise. Who, in his right mind, will not want GMA to go as the plot thickens. No amount of so-called �unity walk� by her Cabinet in the premises of Malacanang or by her AFP and PNP in places elsewhere can delete the solid public perception that GMA has done a public wrong that manifests itself clear as crystal. The more well-meaning members of her Cabinet should start thinking of having to leave an institution now under siege and it is almost predictable that the domino effect of one resigning to trigger mass resignations is about to unfold. It bears watching. JDV, now sings another tune, disowns his former big boss when he was moved out of her grace. Political survival for the man who has claimed authorship of nearly every law enacted for the last two decades was the name of the game. To think he will again be the major beneficiary of a GMA ouster, if it happens, is tantamount to sheer luck � a turn of events that goes back to the dirty guys. Pray tell, it will not be so. CBCP, playing well its make-believe image as the final moral arbiter of large societal issues, was never quick to the draw. Its pastoral letter has always been buried in the limbo of meaningless utterances. For the average mind, it is nonsensical, myopic, and for its �neither-here-nor-there� stance, it is worth nothing at all. It betrays its avowed concern as expressed in the dictum � the greatest good for the greatest number when it fails to deliver the true message across. And it failed as it has always failed. Behind every 10-hour closed-door meeting beyond the piercing eyes of media that CBCP holds on a number of �turning points in the country�s history� is a presumably institutional �power struggle� taking place. However, in an institution built on chronic seniority and hierarchy, personality cult is its chief beneficiary. The head of CBCP rules that little universe of supposed-to-be noble men of faith � the religious clique. JDV�s little Congress � his once kingdom � is now on the silent mode as if to tell us nothing is the matter with this country. The daily menu in the entire viewing screen that is the �Jun Lozada� brought to light an entire wasteland of claims and counterclaims, evidence upon a counter-evidence, truth upon counter-truth to the point as though, everything will be mathematical at the end of the whole equation. What is this? Truth, as we know it, provided nothing obstructs its flow like a self-serving defense mechanism as an EO 643 (whatever its number is) does not come as mere pile of facts, documents, or narratives. Truth, when it comes out, comes out with simplicity in its wholeness. All available evidence, if we may call it that, point to FG, that again, by simple implication is GMA herself. An entire infrastructure of testimonies, material evidence, and papers can be built had the process been allowed to take its normal course. There is however, a country to be saved as the official line from the military and the police would have us believed. Malacanang is under heavy attack. If it survived �Hello Garci�, is there anything else it cannot overcome? If the prescribed legal route be followed, nothing tells us of a way GMA will be ousted, nor resigned from her position, nor booted out of Malacanang. They know something we don�t. They can do something we can�t. They have planned ahead of time something we can never do. In this country, the AFP and the PNP make governments, believe it or not. And so long these institutions are beholden to the Queen, ouster is next to impossibility. GMA will finish term, good or bad. There is even greater danger of rallying behind that certain Jun Lozada who cries when nothing pains him to a breaking point, laughs when highly serious statements were uttered, smiles when there is nothing so suited to smile about and breaks the frontiers of serious ideas from the non-serious ones. We might be rallying behind a man that history will soon unravel to be just another �Chavit Singson�, pray not. Primer C. Pagunuran, (by email), UP Diliman, Quezon City , Feb.28, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Your conclusion that "the advantage to a mere handful should not outweigh the advantage to an entire nation" is precisely why the last alternative to this "end Game" situation will be to pressure GMA to resign/take a leave of abscence and for Noli de Castro to assume the presidency as acting. I believe this crisies already started with the Hyatt Ten walkout in Oct 2005 and given the time frame for each EDSA event to come out, I can sense that this "end Game" scenario will end before the year 2008 and it will not be a repeat of EDSA people power but again another form of extra-constitutional means unique in its form but legally acceptable to the majority of the people. I do not discount a blitzkrieg move by the military but as they say a military coup-de-tat is legal and binding if it is successful and "illegal if it failed". The only the break is there are not yet enough officers and soldiers not allied to GMA who are convinced that its worth an honor to gamble for the country against a crumbling GMA. That is the remaining ingredient lacking in this boiling political atmosphere to blow the signal that the waiting time is over for this end-game scenario. Jojie Umali, (by email), Riyadh , Saudi Arabia , Feb. 28, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I am all for your endgame scenario that would find Noli de Castro replacing Gloria if and when she is forced out of office. That is a lot more acceptable than any one of the opposition presidential wannabes or a revolutionary junta taking over. However, I doubt that the political villains will allow that. Certainly, Lacson, Binay, Villar, Roxas, and Legarda would work vehemently to prevent that from happening. They would rather not end senate investigations of government anomalies, even perceived, until 2010 to keep their names in the papers daily. They would rather keep regular opposition rallies in Makati to maintain an atmosphere of dissent at least in Metro Manila. They would rather keep enrollment in the Ping Academy of Witnesses high, even awarding scholorships if need be, just to prolong this chaoitic government environment. All these to have themselves elected in 2010 and create their own anomalies. [email protected], March 02, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, The interfaith rally last Friday is the start of the VICTORY.This is the endgame scenario...The 70,000 Filipinos or so ,shows that the kettle has started to come to a boil. If they are only(?) 70,000 of 85 Million Filipinos, we must not forget that they all come from domestic families plus offices plus schools, etc etc and each one present will present the case to the commune they represent, so 70,000 multiplied by 10 is 700,000!! The next rallies will count more and more and more!! But this wont succeed without a fight, there is an ongoing contest and we will see the ultimate contest between the forces of good and the forces of evil.. Good eventually wins out thru the the blood of Christ and the testimonies of the believers!(Rev 12:11) The truth for leaders is that the TRUTH will not come out without the FIGHT. There will be much sacrifice but it will be worth the battle. The communal effort is starting to bear fruit. Nobody fights alone. In the end we will all celebrate. a big BIG celebration!! Peoples passion from all walks of life will draw more people and cast away the BEAST of Greed and Evil. God bless our Nation!! Eric Manalang, (by email), March 02, 2008 Ang Kapatiran Party wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Forwarded to Tapatt by Perry Diaz, March 02 ,2008) Noli de Castro, Prepared or Preparing? By Aries Rufo - In case of a vacancy in the Office of the President, Vice President Noli de Castro is "all set" to assume the President's functions and duties. While he may not join efforts to oust the President, the Vice President has taken a crash course on the basics of the presidency and what to do during the first days in Malacanang. He is also in close contact with some personalities who will advocate constitutional succession in case of a power vacuum. Members of the inner circle of the Vice President have confirmed with abs-cbnNews.com/ Newsbreak that de Castro has undergone tutorials on the demands of the presidency and how to immediately normalize the political situation if he becomes President. The preparation includes putting the 'house' in order in the first few days and drafting a national development agenda, from the mid-term to long-term, as part of effecting smooth transition of power. Political advisers and strategists of the Vice President, who want to remain anonymous, stressed that the preparations do not mean that de Castro is about to jump ship anytime, saying that "it is just responsible of him to be ready" for any unforeseen events. Sources told us that de Castro is now forming a core group of influential personalities who will advocate constitutional succession and not a civilian military junta�as some groups advocate. One source said these top personalities are respected members of judiciary, the military, and the Church. Ready with National Security Crisis Plan As the constitutional successor in case of a power vacuum, the sources said that de Castro has been briefed on a national security crisis plan, starting from the first hours of assuming the presidency up to his 100 days in office. In the first few days of his assumption for instance, de Castro is expected to rally the entire government bureaucracy behind him as well as secure the approval and confidence of the military and the international community. Crucial in the first few days would be a declaration of support from military top brass and recognition of other countries. The sources said de Castro has a strong faith in the competence of the bureaucracy and a change in leadership would not necessarily involve an overhaul in the government. The next few months would involve consolidating the support of other sectors, from the legislative, the military, the Church and the civil society to stabilize the political atmosphere. "He knows what to do from Day 1 to his first 100 days in office," the sources said. Not Overt The sources said a major Cabinet change might not be necessary, since de Castro is aware of the capabilities of the Cabinet officials. Sought for reaction, former senator Ralph Recto, one of de Castro's closest political advisers, said that while "it is a matter of duty" that de Castro take the reins of government as the constitutional successor, he doubts however whether the Vice President is overtly preparing for a leadership change. In the first place, "there is nothing to prepare" since de Castro can very well take charge from Day 1 with his three-year experience as member of Arroyo's Cabinet. De Castro is chair of the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council (HUDCC) which carries a Cabinet rank. De Castro has maintained that he is ready to take on the presidency but has refrained from joining any calls for Arroyo to resign. This has prompted other sectors seeking Arroyo's ouster to remove him from the political equation in the event of power vacuum. Arroyo is facing her second major political storm following revelations that anomalies and corruption marred the botched $329 National Broadband Network-ZTE project. Militant and leftist groups have raised the option of putting up a civilian-military junta. They maintained that de Castro is not suitable to succeed because of his fence sitting in the current political imbroglio. - abscbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww On Bringing Down My Mother By Luli Arroyo ABS-CBN News, February 29, 2008 My family has never made money illegally, much less made money from government. My father has always steered clear of any action that might even cast doubt on my mother's integrity. Even when my mother was an undersecretary of the Department of Trade and Industry, he could have had a lucrative career being on retainer as lawyer of garment manufacturers and exporters. Though this was legal, my father opted not to take on these clients because it raised an ethical question of a conflict of interest since my mother was in charge of the Garments and Textile Export Board. If at that time, my father opted not to make money even though it was legal because it might cast doubt on my mother's integrity, he will not do anything now that she is the highest officer of the land. Even today, you never heard him make money or "commission" out of the donations for the athletes in preparation for the SEA Games and the Olympics, because he made sure that the money passed directly from the sponsors to the particular sports associations or athletes, and never passed through his hands. Obviously these accusations thrown at him by politicians are politically motivated, because he was fat and was rich to begin with, and was made an easy target. During the time of President Ramos, I remember there was also some issue about a government bidding that was questioned by the losing bidder, but we all accepted that this was just sour graping by the loser. The only difference today is that the losing bidder who is sour graping is the former speaker's son, who thinks there is no ethical or legal problem going for government contracts which will pass through Congress. Fire caused by arson People say that there have been a lot of accusations thrown at my father, so these must be true since "where there's smoke, there's fire." My response is: Sure, if the fire was caused by ARSON. In other words, the arsonists caused the destruction, then pointed to others to deflect blame from themselves. So many times, the people who actually make money from whatever deals do so using my father's name even though he is not at all involved, and then when they get caught, they point an accusing finger at him while pocketing the money they made. I question the timing of this supposedly new revelation [in the national broadband deal]. It only adds more of the same based on vague statements, fiction and creative embellishments of conversations the "witness" was not actually privy to. This comes after a change in leadership in Congress. I suppose this is still part of the "valedictory" of the previous leadership. Take out institutionalized corruption Why do people want to destroy my mother? Because she has tried very hard to take out the institutionalized corruption, so the way they fight back is to try to destroy my family's reputation. This concerted effort to smear her reputation began the minute she resigned from the cabinet of her predecessor, and has gone on unrelented. Unfortunately many people don't understand this, that the corruption has been built up for at least two decades, and pervades not only government but society in general, and it will probably take many years to wipe it out of our system, especially when those entrenched are fighting back and fighting dirty not to be unseated. The reason the economy is doing well and foreign investors are back with billion dollar private investments, numbers we haven't seen in more than a decade, is that my mother has concentrated on the policy and on running the government and making the difficult decisions, and these are now bearing fruit. All the next president has to do is to keep our course steady. But many of these politicians are either impatient, or want the old system back, or think that they can earn popular points by tearing her down. She hasn't concerned herself with how the media or the political plotters portray her. She has made the unpopular but necessary decisions for the good of the economy and the country. Meaningless numbers? Some people have also said that our economic numbers are meaningless, that the 7.1% growth is a farce because the gap between rich and poor is bigger now. The most recent SWS survey on self-rated poverty says that the number who think they are poor has decreased from the last time they did the survey. Meaning, people feel the effects of economic upliftment. I want to add that billion dollar private investors which are multinational companies are happy with the policies of my mother. These are a part of the reason they invest or increase their investments. None of them have complained that my family asked for "commission," unlike complaints made during the past administration. This is what many of their global CEOs said at the World Economic Forum in Davos; those who have already invested in the country enticed others to do so. What these CEOs feared was that after my mother's administration, the next president might change policies and might not understand the importance of her economic and fiscal reforms. She assured them that despite the rhetoric from those running for president, most of them want investments and the jobs they generate to continue. Besides, she has done the difficult work to get these economic and fiscal reforms institutionalized through legislation. All they have to do is reap the benefits of what we are already beginning to achieve in economic growth and social upliftment.***** OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NOTE. Transmissions to yahoo.com and mydestiny.net addresses are sometimes delayed or blocked by the servers for one reason or other. If you are encountering these delays or blocking, we suggest you move to a hotmail or a gmail address. |