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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Doomsday Scenarios
By Antonio C. Abaya Written on Dec. 12, 2007 For the Standard Today, December 13 issue Most of the following paragraphs were published in this space on November 9, 2006. In the light of the current international conference on climate change in Bali and the recent award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, I am reprising most of this article. I have added some new material and they appear in italics. Sometimes it is so depressing to get up in the morning and be confronted with doomsday scenarios in the newspapers and on the Internet. But last week was especially bad. Within days of each other, a major economist painted the bleakest picture yet of the world economy if nothing was done to reverse global warming, and a group of scientists warned in the science journal Science that over-fishing would lead to a �global collapse� of the fishing industry by, hold on to your boneless bangus, the year 2048. Sir Nicholas Stern, identified as a former chief economist of the World Bank, wrote in a 700-page report commissioned by the British ministry of finance that unless global warming were tamed soon, some 200 million people worldwide would become refugees as a result of floods and droughts, the global economy would spiral into recession and depression, and the cost of repairing the damage would reach $6.98 trillion. According to the British newspaper The Observer, that price tag would exceed the cost of World War I, World War II and the Great Depression of the 1930s combined, and would render large parts of the planet uninhabitable. To fight global warming, Stern recommends a budget equivalent to one percent of global GDP, or about $240 billion, and the drafting and signing of a new international protocol next year � instead of 2010-2011 when the current Kyoto Protocol expires � on reducing greenhouse gases. But Stern himself warns that even if the world were to somehow suddenly stop polluting the planet today, the slow-growing effects of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere would continue to warm the planet for another 30 years, with sea levels rising for a century. That makes it sound so irremediably hopeless, doesn�t it? Even if all burning of carbon fuels and all emissions of carbon gases were miraculously stopped today � which is infinitely more than what the Kyoto Protocol calls for � the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere would continue global warming until 2036, melting the polar ice caps and the Himalayan and Alpine glaciers, and raising sea levels all the way to the year 2106. And since it is humanly impossible to stop burning carbon-based fuels anytime soon, until a viable alternative technology is developed and fine-tuned and propagated, global warming will be with us way beyond the year 2036 and ocean levels will continue to rise beyond the year 2106, based on the gloomy prognosis of Stern��. The way the Stern Report puts it, there is no solution to global warming until way beyond 2036, and no stopping the rise of sea levels until way beyond 2106. He recommends that the global community set aside $240 billion now to counter the effects of carbon dioxide emissions, which is the biggest source of greenhouse gases. But he does not spell out � at least not in the excerpts from his Report that have come out in media � what specifically needs to be done. Meanwhile, in 2007, the latest UN Report on Human Development, released in Brazil last week, warned that the world has less than ten years to stop global warming and that dangerous climate change would be unavoidable if in the next 15 years, emissions followed the sane trend as in the past 15 years. The Report said climate change would condemn millions of people to poverty. Climate disasters between 2000 and 2004 affected 262 million people, 98 percent of them in the developing world. A temperature rise of between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius (5.4 and 7.1 degrees F) would displace 340 million people through flooding, droughts would diminish farm output, and retreating glaciers would cut off drinking water to as many as 1.8 billion people, the report said. Other dire predictions are relentless: 2007 will probably be the warmest year ever. The Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves are melting faster than anticipated. So are the Alpine and Himalayan glaciers. By the year 2020, Bangkok and much of Bangladesh will be under water. 2007 has seen a record number of floods, droughts and severe storms, three times more than those recorded in 2005, according to the UN. There is no doubt about it anymore: the world has to be weaned from its dependence on carbon-based fossil fuels.. Ever since the Industrial Revolution began in England in the 18th century with the invention of coal-burning industrial machines, mankind�s voracious appetite for fossil fuels has grown exponentially. The invention of the internal combustion engine, - for use in land, sea and eventually air transport � has made dependence on carbon-based fossil fuels total and irreversible. It was na�ve to expect the US to sign the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 that would have limited the growth of its economy. It is even more na�ve now to expect China and India to accept that same economy-crimping Protocol. Only a new energy paradigm that does not sacrifice economic growth is going to gain universal acceptance, and that new energy paradigm consists in declaring independence from carbon-based fuels and adopting, as a deliberate national policy, other energy alternatives.. So far only two countries have embraced this new paradigm. In 2002 Iceland set as a national policy the switch from a carbon-based economy to a hydrogen-based one. (See my articles Hydrogen Economy [ Dec. 26, 2004 ] and Learn from Iceland [ Aug. 19, 2005 ]). http://www.geocities.com/dapat_tapatt/hydrogeneconomy.html http://www.geocities.com/dapat_tapatt/learnfromiceland.html In 2005, Sweden announced that it too would, as a national policy, take steps to stop depending on carbon-based fuels, but it did not spell out what options it would pursue. Admittedly, it is relatively easy for Iceland and Sweden to declare themselves independent of carbon-based fuels. Iceland has a small population (296,000) but has vast geothermal resources. Sweden also has a relatively small population (10 million) but with almost unlimited hydroelectric potential from its rivers�... What are the non-carbon alternatives? They are nuclear fission (the splitting of heavy atoms into lighter atoms), nuclear fusion (the fusing of light atoms into heavier atoms), geothermal (from the heat of volcanoes), solar, wind, hydro and fuel cells. Bio-mass and ethanol are based on carbon molecules (cellulose and alcohol, respectively) and, when burned, will still result in carbon dioxide. We can forget about nuclear fusion as this technology is still decades into the future. Solar energy is suitable for small users, such as in remote islands, but not for large towns and cities. The biggest operating solar farm in the Third World is run by Cepalco in Cagayan de Oro City, but it generates less than one megawatt despite occupying more than one hectare of real estate. Wind turbines at present have a maximum rating of only 1.6 mw each and, as the Chevron advert on cable TV says, it would take 20,000 such turbines to power a city like Paris . So, realistically, the options are down to nuclear fission, geothermal, hydro-electric and fuel cells. But not every country has geothermal resources, and not every country has enough hydro potential to supply all its energy needs. If you have heard gushing endorsements of deuterium, please know that this is a hoax. There is/was actually a company in Cubao selling shares in a deuterium exploration corporation. But anyone with a background in physics or chemistry would know that it is a hoax. Deuterium is a heavy isotope of hydrogen, found in seawater all over the world as deuterium oxide, and is the preferred fuel for nuclear fusion, but the technology for fusion � which aims to duplicate the thermonuclear reaction in the Sun � is decades away. There is not a single nuclear fusion reactor operating in the world, even as an experimental prototype. The technological problems are enormous, such as raising the temperature to one million degrees Celsius � so that deuterium atoms fuse into helium atoms � without vaporizing everything and everyone. It is done with giant magnets, but the risk of catastrophic accident cannot be discounted. The development of fuel cells is much more advanced. Fuel cells generate electricity by combining oxygen (from the air) and hydrogen (ideally from water, at present from natural gas) in an acidic solution, and the resulting effluent or exhaust is nothing but water vapor. No radioactivity, no pollution, no possibility of catastrophic accidents (such as Chernobyl ), not even noise. Regular readers of this column know that I have been pushing for fuel cells ever since I was invited to Los Angeles in 1995 for a briefing on fuel cells by the corporation that supplies NASA with fuel cells for its space-ships. There are hundreds of cars, trucks, buses and vans operating on fuel cells in the US, Canada, Japan and Europe as experimental prototypes. Some car manufacturers in the US , Japan and Germany have developed commercially available hybrids that combine internal combustion engines with fuel cells. There are also scores of stationary fuel cell generators in various countries that have been operating continuously for years. Honda of Japan has beaten the other car manufacturers with the first hydrogen fuel-cell car to go in production, the FCX Clarity, introduced last week, according to the New York Times (Dec. 9, 2007). But it is not about to displace anytime soon the 600 million gasoline- or diesel-powered motor vehicles already operating around the world. The present total absence of a hydrogen distribution network would limit the FCX to only a few urban centers for the next decade or so. In the meantime, the global warming time bomb is ticking away Iceland , the only country so far to have set its sights officially on a hydrogen-based economy, may have taken the first step in avoiding Mr. Stern�s doomsday scenario. It is worth looking into, if you ask me. In a succeeding article, I will show that the solutions being offered so far to reduce global warming � carbon capture, carbon sequestration, carbon trading, carbon counting, carbon footprint � are mere cosmetic palliatives, totally inadequate to solve the problem. There is no global discussion at all on how to reduce the greenhouse gases ALREADY in the atmosphere. Yet only such an effort, coupled with a universal shift to a hydrogen economy on the ground, offers any realistic hope to avoid the doomsday scenarios that the world faces. ***** Reactions to [email protected]. Other articles in www.tapatt.org and in acabaya.blogspot.com OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Doomsday Scenarios� The Need for Leadership A Solution in Two Years Despite Political Woes, RP Economy Grows US and China Resist Bali Targets Wow. Scary ah. Mike Delgado, (by email), Dec. 13, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, Can you please explore and elaborate some more on the theory of fuel-cells. How it is extracted or made and how it would work as a substitute for the present fossil-fuel. Thanks again and more power. Bert Celera, (by email), Dec. 13, 2007 (Fuel cells generate electricity directly, like a battery, by the action of hydrogen and oxygen ions in an acidic solution. Fossil fuels do not generate electricity directly. They are burned and the resultant heat boils water into steam, which turns the turbines of a generator. For a fuller technical description of fuel cells, google it or access Wikipedia. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww TONY, A great knowledgeable and informative dissertation. But there are the inexorable checks and balances of global problems: the culling of human population and civilizations, to balance with the regenerative processes of the ecosystem of the environment that give us life, through: environmental disasters, wars in the fight for survival amid dire human suffering, desperation and helplessness, with our modern weapons and genies of mass death and destruction that come handy in our Modern Age, and give rise in our folly, selfish values and ignorance, to human wisdom, for our enduring welfare and survival. Rod Gabuya, (by email), Rolling Hills Estates, CA, Dec. 14, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. Dear Sir, I read your latest essay with interest - as usual - and cannot help but chip in my five cents of wisdom. 30 years ago, I was still living in my native Germany , a group of scientists published a book "Die Grenzen des Wachstums" or Limits to Growth. At that time they were laughed about as a few fuzzy bearded weird professors and done away with. Today, we know that each and everyone of their predictions has come to haunt us, with remarkable precision even as far as the timing was concerned. At the bottom of the whole issue lies the fact that we, as the species homo sapiens, are far too successful for our own good. The world is a rocky sphere, with limited physical dimensions, cruising through a deadly hostile space environment. We have nowhere else to go. Anything with limited physical dimensions has also physically limited resources, as we are about to find out. I only wish this would become clear to the huge hordes of lunatics out there, who will undoubtedly call now for more prayer rallies and other nonsense, but otherwise staunchly reject any and all forms of population control or management. For those who can't see the fact that we are already far too many for the resource base that our planet offers and refuse to intelligently control our runaway populations, I have news: If we as a species won't control our numbers, then our environment will do that for us. But then again, we can always claim that it was the lack of prayer that has brought the wrath of god onto us. What an idiotic, self-fulfilling prophecy. Regards Ulrich Bosse, Antipolo, Rizal, Dec. 14, 2007 By e-mail from Australia wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Maybe not so gloomy a future, Tony, if you're up to par on aerodynamics and can recognize the power potential made available by a static shell-structure and simple turbine...what's there to worry about? Search the U.S. Patent office for patent # 6.790,007 It will happen in your lifetime...I promise! Mitch Gingras, (by email), Dec. 14, 2007 (What exactly are you proposing? Space travel from a doomed planet? Whatever it is, don�t you think you should at least tell everyone what it is all about.? ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, Thanks for bringing out a very timely important issue. Fifteen year after the Earth Summit and Ten Years after the Kyoto Protocol, Environment Professionals are still against the greatest skeptics of environmentalism. The biggest economy of the world spearheads the group. Unless global business practices changed, there is no escaping doomsday. The Earth Summit provided everybody the formula of sustainability. Agenda 21 has recommended that conduct of sustainable business will be attained if calculation of profit will also take into acount all environment impact of business operations and not only the direct capitalization cost of manufacturing goods. But today's businesses is still being conducted on the basis of old age principles, big margin for bigger profit. I am working in a multinational company involved in garments industry. I don't know if you will be surprised but just for your information, in case you still don't know (and I doubt it), certain FOB prices of garments of coming season is still being negotiated at a lower price than the previous season despite rising raw materials and energy costs. But at the retail end, the cost of goods continue to increase. This results to greater profit because of a bigger margin. I think this is happening in all outsourcing business, which is the global trend now. Everybody is looking up to China , amazed by their economic growth of more than 10% at least during the past 5 years. But to tell you what is happening in China in the environmental end, it is doomsday. It is like a ticking time bomb. Yes, China is offering competitive prices that's why they are reaping all of the unprecedented successes. But some of it's effect, well, the two largest river delta in China , the Yangtze and the Pearl , are both biologically dead beyond rehabilitation and China 's State Environment Protection Agency is helpless. Most of the price negotiations happen in either Hongkong or Shanghai but most of the buyers do not even care visit the production floors and see how their goods are manufactured. We admire US and European countries, or at least the big economies, because of their intact forest system and unpolluted water bodies. But had we really ever ask ourselves who are really causing the miseries in developing countries. These economies own all big mining concessions in developing countries that continue to flatten their mountains and cut all their remaining trees. The transnational and multinational companies put their big factories in these countries as well and continue to pollute the air and water system. The rich countries continue to rape the poor countries' environment and it will not stop in the nearest future. In college, this is what activists called IMPERIALISM. Then the poor countries are made to feel grateful when financial aids, in case of disasters, are provided by the rich countries. Developing nations like China are exempted in Kyoto Protocol, so the western world are emitting all their carbons in China . Their FOB prices will not afford China factories the cost of environmental protection. Unless this greatest global hypocrisy is stopped, there is no stopping doomsday. Anyway, all of us live in just one planet with one integrated ecosystem. Climate change and global warming make people realize that shits in the east will reach the west once the septic tank is filled up and exploded. There are still a lot to say about this issue, but as always, very few care to listen, and though some are listening, it is only during conferences and symposia. Good luck to humans and all inhabitants of planet earth!!! And to future generations... Edilberto Anit, (by email), Dec. 15, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww SIR TONY, I WANT YOU TO BE MY PRESIDENT (2010)�..YOU HAVE THE INCRIDIBLE TALENT, COUNT ON ME, SIR. SALAMAT PO . Emilio Z. Vargas, (by email), Dec. 17, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The Need for Leadership It is time to put to rest the illusion that political spin-doctors and demagogues have been dishing out for so long - about the need for a particular person as a capable replacement of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The problem is not just Gloria Macapagal Arroyo - for she is merely a puppet: a nominal figure used by the personalities around her, who are actually "running the show" from "back stage". There is no single Filipino leader, even with the stature of the real heroes like Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, Apolinario Mabini, Emilio Jacinto, Antonio Luna, Gregorio Del Pilar and all the others long dead, who can single-handedly bring up the Motherland from the pits, where we are now. What we need starting January 2008 is a series of teams of truly patriotic and capable Filipinos, who will serve at the sacrifice of their respective individual interests for only just six years, without any extension, to run the Executive Branch of the Philippine Government. That is the real issue. It is time to acknowledge that the Presidential seat is just symbolic. No President can truly manage the Executive Branch without the assistance of those who are to be appointed as Cabinet Secretaries and all the other major functionaries. Thus, the task is to identify who among the non-politicians can be given the trust and confidence of the Filipino People to run each Department for the next six years, starting 2008. No compromise with regard to the personalities who have been used and those who are being used by the immoral government of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. We need a completely new team of Department Secretaries and major functionaries, whose common task is to pick up the pieces, clear the mess, and set up a new direction for our Motherland, that shall be relentlessly pursued by the next and subsequent teams that will be formed every six years. [email protected], Dec. 16, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The solutions to current problems will be the crisis of the next generation, e.g. the power blackouts of the 90's was caused by the inept handling of the energy problem by the Cory administration, this energy crisis was solved by the Ramos administration. However the onerous contracts/provisions signed during tabako's admin is now being paid in full by the energy consuming public.\ The excellent analysis of overarching societal issues can create hard to predict forks, ramifications in the near future. The analysis made by pmcsi_phil re GMA staying durability attributed to a team is quite plausible. She managed to put together a team of (unscrupulous?) doers that can deliver the goods through thick and thin. GMA can be considered to be the most unpopular, the more corrupt than Marcos-Erap combined according to self-serving surveys. GMA's regime should have collapsed years ago but this vertically challenged female shrimp managed to stay on. The paradox of the power of one? The ineptness of a self-serving opposition? True there is a need to put up a team to contest the presidency in 2010. Just like in the Olympics, the team prepares and produces the gold medal. However if one compares the 100 meter dash to running as president of the country, the team still has to choose who should run. The question, who should be the members of the team and who should run is still the issue to be faced. Unfortunately, if we look at the potential runners.. Please God have mercy on the Flips Felix Zamar, (by email), Dec. 19, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww A Solution in Two Years Dear Mr. Abaya, Sincere Christmas Greetings to you, your family and your staff. For decades, our people have been confounded by the relentless and brazen piracy, pillage and plunder by politicians and their friends. For decades, your tireless tirades and brave exposes have been heard but, alas, never listened to. Yet you remain our fearless Don Quixote. You remain the brave defender of victims who have less in Life because of the shameless cruelty of those who claim to be above the Law. For years you have decried our society's moral decay and written about your anguish of those pauperized by politicians. For years you have asked for or suggested solutions because you are truly convinced there is still hope for our noble people. Mr. Abaya, another year is passing before our very eyes, still with no solution in sight. We are getting on in years but still praying for a solution, even divine intervention. Sir, there is a glimmer of hope. Like the star that guided the wise men to the divine solution, we can look to a guiding light in Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio. (Sir, I do not know him from Adam). In Pampanga, it was not the strengthening of the Peso that produced a stronger local economy and good governance, it was the strong moral fiber of its provincial governor. If this were to happen to more provincial governors in our country, we should expect to see a similar improvement in the local economy. People will say, there was no volcanic eruption to support the governor in our province! So, okay, no volcanic eruption, but if there were no stealing at the rate it is going on now, good will could still erupt improving the local economy, keep the provincial budget healthy and adjusting government spending. Let us also suggest to all "reigning" provincial governors to meet with his Mayors and convince them to step up to the challenge of bringing about a new climate in governance . Let the Rule of Law prevail coupled with Honesty being the best policy of each official and employee in the province. Perestroika and Glastnost, whatever you call it. Let the old (crooked and inept) politicians wither and die in the vine! "One Governor At A Time" should be the title of this letter to you. If more governors joined Ed Panlilio, and with God's help, they could be the good majority and the crooks just a minority. We should try this, Mr. Abaya. Let us ask our people this question: Can you citizens persuade your provincial governor to emulate Gov. Ed Panlilio? Create your own miracles! A word to the wise, Lionel Tierra, (by email), Sacramento , CA , Dec. 20, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Forwarded to Tapatt by Misael C. Balayan) Source: http://business.inquirer.net/money/breakingnews/view_article.php?article_id=105785 Despite political woes, RP economy still grows Agence France-Presse Last updated 11:24am (Mla time) 12/09/2007 MANILA, Philippines--For more than 20 years the Philippine economy has been held to ransom by political bickering and a succession of failed coup attempts, but there are signs that this is now changing. The short-lived siege of a luxury Manila hotel by a group of soldiers on November 29 hardly made an impact on the economy with the stock market ending the day 1.2 percent higher. The siege followed the assassination of a prominent Muslim congressman in a bomb blast outside the House of Representatives on November 13 and an accidental shopping mall explosion which killed 11 people on October 19. In the past these events would have sent the economy into a tail spin. But the Economist Intelligence Unit recently forecast that economic growth in 2007 would hit 6.8 percent, the highest in 20 years. Similarly the economy now seems unperturbed by constant corruption accusations against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who is determined to stay the course and end her term in 2010. Although she has pardoned former president Joseph Estrada who was sentenced to life for corruption recently, a shadow will always hang over Arroyo and the seizure of power in 2001 when the military withdrew its support from the former movie actor. Filipinos are tired of all the political bickering and military adventurism, said Nestor Aguila, president of DA Market Securities. "These things are just seen as a nuisance today. Nobody cares about it," he added. The Philippine Business Leaders Forum, part of The Economist group, said in a recent commentary: "Growth is up, the budget deficit is down, the peso is going through the roof, remittances are at an all-time high in spite of the fall of the dollar and business confidence is booming." James Lago, of Westlink Global Equities, said: "The Arroyo administration may have its problems but the local investment community has come to terms with that. The fact is there is no solid alternative. "Despite rumblings against her the general public would rather live with the Arroyo administration," Lago said. Even concerns over corruption no longer seem to be a deterrent to foreign investment. "The top countries in the world for foreign investment today are China and India and they have an extensive history of corruption," remarked John Forbes, director of the local American Chamber of Commerce. It is in the area of economic reform, however, that business leaders still see problems. Forbes said that if the right reforms are implemented, the Philippines could see $35.8 billion in new foreign investment from 2007 to 2010. He identified 17 bills -- covering topics like customs brokerage, land administration and credit information -- that are ready to be passed into law and could help accelerate economic growth but which have largely been ignored by the legislature. In a recent speech before the country's business community, Donald Dee, the usually soft-spoken chairman of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, lashed out at the country's politicians. "We are sick and tired of all these political noises. We are sick and tired or our leaders pointing their fingers at each other," he said. Although the economy still faces numerous challenges, such as rising oil prices, the weakening US dollar, continuing fiscal concerns and the possible effects of the US sub-prime credit crisis, it has still shown impressive growth in recent months. The World Bank, in a report on Asia-Pacific economies, praised the Philippines as "the best performing economy among Southeast Asian middle income countries." "This indicates that [economic] growth for the year could reach or exceed 6.7 percent, which is on upper end of the government's target range for 2007," the World Bank said. The economy's strength has been credited to the huge remittances of the millions of Filipinos working overseas, the booming business process outsourcing (BPO) sector at home, strong domestic demand and the resilience of the export industry. But business leaders have also identified other potential growth areas like tourism, mining, infrastructure, power and biofuels. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww US and China resist Bali Targets Developing countries belonging to the G-77, which includes the Philippines , won a major victory in Bali after some 180 world leaders agreed to �operationalize� the Adaptation Fund, a long-idle funding source designed to finance programs to combat global warming in vulnerable developing countries and small-island nations. �This hard won victory for the country-victims, to be hit first and hardest by global warming that they had not caused, was greeted by a rare universal applause at the Bali convention hall,� said Environment Secretary Jose Atienza, head of the Philippine delegation to the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bali , Indonesia . The Adaptation Fund, established under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to finance concrete adaptation projects and program in developing countries that are parties to the Protocol, is held by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). It comes from 2% of certified emission reductions (CERs) on carbon credit transactions under the clean development mechanism (CDM). The CMD allows developed countries, which have agreed to cut CO2 emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, to buy credits from carbon reduction projects in developing nations to meet their targets. The untapped fund has thus far accumulated to US$67 million since 1997. �The next battle of the G-77 is to get the US and China, lone holdouts to the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, to agree to emission reduction targets for the post-Kyoto Protocol period beginning in 2013, after the Protocol expires in 2012,� stressed former Senator and Environment Secretary Heherson T. Alvarez, who is part of the Philippine delegation. Atienza and Alvarez co-chair the Advisory Council on Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation and Communication (ACCCMAC), which leads the RP team to the Dec. 3 to 14 Bali meet. The Council has already outlined regional and local adaptation measures that could get funding from the Adaptation Fund. At the ACCCMAC-sponsored Climate Change Conference in Legazpi City in Albay last October, President Arroyo welcomed the Council�s adaptation programs. These were: 1. Planting of mangrove walls, following the Thailand model, where a wall of mangrove trees will be planted in coastal areas by a decreasing layer of 10, 5 and 3 feet, serving as a buffer zone and protection against super typhoons. 2. Fortification of infrastructures such as schoolhouses, government installations, power structures and other vital installations, since climate change has now bred super typhoons, with winds of more than 200 kilometers per hour (kph) as compared to regular typhoons that have only 117 kph or more of wind power. 3. Massive tree planting for the protection of Philippine forests, with a focus on watershed reforestation. Schoolchildren and the youth can plant trees, tapping about 20 million students, easily guaranteeing 20 million trees annually . 4. Information campaign to inform the public of the dangers of global warming and climate change. As far back as the 1750s, studies have shown that 75% of greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming, were attributed to activities of industrialized nations, while only 25% was caused by deforestation and land degradation in developing countries. � China overtook the United States � 25% global emissions share as top emitter just this year because of its unprecedented industrial development as cheap manufacturer for rich countries, particularly USA and Europe , but at a cost of building three dirty coal power plants each week,� explained Alvarez. �However, there is already a Bali road map consensus that negotiations for a post-Kyoto Protocol must be completed by 2009, with the US and China resisting the European Union-led call for emission reduction targets of 20-45% by 2020 and another 50% by 2050, from 2000 emission base levels,� he added. Office of Heherson T. Alvarez, former Environment Secretary wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Forwarded to Tapatt by Alexandra York): 2007 Bali Climate Declaration by Scientists This consensus document was prepared under the auspices of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Sydney , Australia . The 2007 IPCC report, compiled by several hundred climate scientists, has unequivocally concluded that our climate is warming rapidly, and that we are now at least 90% certain that this is mostly due to human activities. The amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere now far exceeds the natural range of the past 650,000 years, and it is rising very quickly due to human activity. If this trend is not halted soon, many millions of people will be at risk from extreme events such as heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our coasts and cities will be threatened by rising sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and animal species will be in serious danger of extinction. The next round of focused negotiations for a new global climate treaty (within the 1992 UNFCCC process) needs to begin in December 2007 and be completed by 2009. The prime goal of this new regime must be to limit global warming to no more than 2 �C above the pre-industrial temperature, a limit that has already been formally adopted by the European Union and a number of other countries. Based on current scientific understanding, this requires that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by at least 50% below their 1990 levels by the year 2050. In the long run, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilized at a level well below 450 ppm (parts per million; measured in CO2-equivalent concentration). In order to stay below 2 �C, global emissions must peak and decline in the next 10 to 15 years, so there is no time to lose. As scientists, we urge the negotiators to reach an agreement that takes these targets as a minimum requirement for a fair and effective global climate agreement. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |