 |
 |
| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Coups and Rumors of Coups By Antonio C. Abaya October 29, 2001 On August 21, 1987, fourth anniversary of Ninoy Aquino�s martyrdom, I wrote in my column in BusinessWorld that unless President Aquino resolved the disquiet in the military that her government was too friendly to the communists, she faced a military revolt that could topple her government and render useless the sacrifice of Ninoy. Exactly one week later, on August 28, Col. Gringo Honasan and members of the RAM staged their first serious coup attempt against the Aquino Government. Although it failed to dislodge her from power, the message got across to her and she fired her entire cabinet less than three weeks later. In my column in The Manila Chronicle of December 1, 1989, I warned Gringo Honasan, then in hiding, that it was not time for another coup attempt. By an uncanny coincidence, the midnight before that issue hit the newsstands, Honasan and the RAM staged their second serious coup attempt � the others in between being comedic farces that really did not deserve to be counted � which almost overthrew President Aquino�s government, were it not for the intervention of two unmarked US Navy F-4 Phantom jets which swept the rebel air force off the skies above Metro Manila. So I have this thing about coups and rumors of coups ***** In the present situation, where talk of coups is again rife, one can dismiss outright at least two of the scenarios being bandied about. One is attributed to Sen. Panfilo Lacson, to wit, that his arch enemy, Police Col. Reynaldo Berroya will lead a coup because he (Berroya) wants to take the place of Leandro Mendoza as chief of the Philippine National Police when Mendoza retires in January.. This is one of the most stupid reasons ever advanced to justify or rationalize a coup attempt, and I am surprised that Sen. Lacson allowed his name to be associated with it. My respect for his intelligence has been downgraded a few notches as a result, and whoever in his staff sold him on this fairy tale should be sent back to Tambakan University for a refresher course in Polit Sci 101. Attempting to stage a coup is very serious business; it is often a life-and-death struggle. That is why it is undertaken for only the most serious of reasons: to grab state power and thereby alter the course of history of a nation. One does not mount a coup to be assured of a promotion to a desired position. This is so stupid. If one were go to all the trouble of organizing and mounting a coup, then the object of the exercise would be to grab total state power, with absolute control over the entire government machinery, not for a partial ego trip like promotion to chief of police. This is like suggesting that the communists stage their revolution so that Joma Sison will be appointed Secretary of Labor. Ping, if you are this stupid, you do not deserve to be president. ***** The second coup scenario that does not make sense is the suggestion that the Arroyo Government will stage a coup against itself to divert public attention from the alleged corruption scandals involving the First Gentleman Mike Arroyo. This is so counter-productive to itself that President Arroyo has to be suspected of extreme masochism to even contemplate such a move even if she were capable of it, which she is not. Staging a coup against itself � by, for example, dissolving Congress and scrapping the Constitution - would only increase public speculation that Mike Arroyo must indeed be guilty of whatever he is accused of, for his wife, the President, to take such a desperate step to save themselves. In such a circumstance, President Arroyo would not be able to remain in power beyond one or two weeks as she would be under siege by civil society, by the Church, by the military, by the communists, by media, by the business community, as well as by the crowds-for-hire from the slums, the El Shaddai and the Iglesia ni Kristo, to step down or be forced out of power by EDSA Nueve or whatever number it will be by then. ***** A close examination of the political scene suggests that it is the opposition, more than anyone else, that has the strongest motivation to mount a power grab. In particular, Joseph Estrada and Panfilo Lacson, because they face serious charges in court that could lead to prison sentences in the medium term. It may be that the only way stave off years in jail would be to mount a coup and grab state power. This is certainly a more logical reason for staging a coup than wanting to be chief of police. In addition, in the case of Lacson, an overwhelming ambition and lust for power propels him in a trajectory to the presidency, especially since he had been designated Erap�s successor in 2004 by the power brokers in the Estrada imperial court: Mark Jimenez, the Chinese Mafia and the Estrada family. One recalls that Lacson himself announced in June 2000 the formation of the PNP Foundation, a private funding organization supposedly meant to buy communication equipment for the police but in reality a fund-raising vehicle for his political campaign in 2004. Said foundation, said Lacson, had received P100 million from Mark Jimenez, P50 million from Lucio Tan, and P40 million from the Filipino-Chinese Chamber of Commerce. The goal was a total of P4 billion by 2004, not coincidentally the amount quoted by political technicians as the minimum needed for waging a successful presidential campaign. In addition, his biopic �The Ping Lacson Story� hit the movie circuit at about the same time, produced by Millenium Productions, which is owned by Jinggoy Estrada. As designated successor to Erap, Lacson suffered the most serious collateral damage when Gov. Chavit Singson exploded his jueteng bombshell that led to Erap�s unexpected fall from power. Ginto na, naging pinakbet pa. It is enough to drive an ambitious man to, well, stage a coup. ***** A third possible coup plotter would be Former President Fidel V. Ramos, but with a motive quite different from those of Estrada and Lacson. Ramos would most likely stage a coup in the unlikely event that President Arroyo fumbles so seriously that she becomes in real danger of being overthrown by the likes of Estrada or Lacson. Such a rescue effort, ordinarily a no-no in the post-Cold War era, would gain the support of the middle and upper classes, the business community, civil society and the international financial establishment who would view Ramos as the best qualified person to restore normalcy in a chaotic Philippines, having been a reasonably successful (by Western standards) former president. But will GMA need to be rescued? At present, she is doing quite well: she is enjoying a high level of public support in opinion surveys, and she has hit her stride in her governing style. She does not seem to need any help from anyone, thank you, although she should seriously consider changing some of the deadwoods in her Cabinet after Christmas. The allegations against her husband, though serious, are essentially unproven and are par for the course in cannibalistic Philippine politics. They are not combustible enough to inflame public opinion against her. One cannot underestimate, however, the mischief that ambitious men are capable of, especially ambitious macho men whose lust for power is exceeded only by their contempt for women. We may see that mischief soon enough. ***** This article appeared in the November 19, 2001 issue of the Philippine Weekly Graphic magazine. |