 |
 |
| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Can GMA Recover? By Antonio C. Abaya Written June 15, 2005 For the Philippines Free Press, June 25 issue Probably not. Social Weather Stations (SWS) plotted the net satisfaction ratings of all presidents, from May 1986 to May 2005, on a graph that was published in the June 03 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, accompanying the banner headline and story of the day, to wit �GMA rating lowest ever.� In May 1986, after having been in office for about three months, President Cory Aquino had a net satisfaction rating (satisfied less dissatisfied) of 53%, rose to a high of about 72% in October that year, then started to tumble to a low of 36% after the August 1987 coup attempt against her, recovered a little, then fell to 7% in November 1990, and stayed at that level in April 1992, before the end of her term.. President Aquino�s net satisfaction rating never touched zero. President Fidel Ramos started high and stayed high, at 69% in July 1993, until April 1994, at which point he started to decline all the way down, touching 1% in October 1995, probably as a result of frequent power outages. He was able to recover, to 50% in April 1997, but the Asian financial crisis did him in, causing his net satisfaction rating to dip to 5%. FVR ended his term in 1998 at a respectable 19%. President Joseph Estrada also started high (don�t they all?) at 60% in September 1998, then dropped like a stone to near zero (5%) in December 1999, after only 15 months in office, exiting with a net satisfaction rating of only 9% as he stood accused in an impeachment trial that never reached closure. It is President Gloria Arroyo who has the worst track record of all four presidents, as far as net satisfaction rating is concerned. Her graph during her first three years in office shows erratic ups and downs, reaching a high of only 28% (in August 2002) but dropping below zero twice: minus 14% in March 2003 and minus 3% in November that same year. Winning the May 2004 elections did not do her much good. From an initial high of only 26% in June 2004, her rating has dropped almost straight down, below zero, to minus 33% in May 2005, by far the lowest net rating for any president ever. And this latest SWS survey was conducted from May 14 to 23, when the jueteng scandal and the wiretapping brouhaha had not yet burst in full flower into people�s consciousness. If a survey were conducted now, as Pulse Asia is no doubt doing, it would not be beyond the realm of possibility that President Arroyo�s net satisfaction rating will drop to minus 75% , with, say, 85% dissatisfied and 10% satisfied. The situation looks bleak and beyond repair. I do not see how she can recover lost ground. All those high-profile meetings with the public relations gurus to burnish her image, and all those power lunches with the media moguls to ensure that she will not be blamed for the high price of oil, all those Para Sa �Yo freebie tabloids of Anthony Abaya brimming with Pollyannic good news�.all have proved of little or no value at all. President Arroyo was not done in by a poor public image or by the high price of oil or by the dearth of good news in the face of bad. President Arroyo lost the battle on moral issues. Did or didn�t members of her family receive kickbacks from jueteng operators? Did she or didn�t she benefit from massive cheating in the 2004 elections? Did she or didn�t she talk to a Comelec commissioner to press for a one-million-votes winning margin in that election? Granted that no evidence has been presented so far that would stand up in a court of law, in the court of public opinion she has been found guilty on all counts, and there seems to be little or nothing that she can do to reverse that judgment. All she can do and all she is doing is stonewall the raging issues against her, confident that the absence of a credible rallying figure against her and the general apathy of the middle class to go out and mass in the streets to demand her ouster will allow her to ride out the storm. So far her political instincts have allowed her to survive. But she will still be vulnerable if and when some other public figure (not Erap, not Abat, not FVR, not any of the trapos) decides to emerge from the shadows and catches fire with the middle class, and one or two ranking military or police generals decide/s to defect to his camp. It�s not over until the Short Lady sings �Goodbye.� Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Can GMA Recover?� She will not be able to recover. I will bet the balls of Mike Arroyo, Mikey Arroyo and Iggy Arroyo. She has nothing to go. Checkmate. If she will deny it : SHE IS A BIG FAT LIAR! If she will admit it: SHE IS A CHEATER and a FAKE PRESIDENT! Bruce Carolino, [email protected] June 21,. 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, I appreciate the copies of your articles which are, as expected, up-to-date evaluation of what is going on in the Philippines. As a member of the Filipino expatriates here in Australia, we rarely get a consistent and credible observation of the political 'circus' going on back home. For the benefit of our readers, I wonder if you would allow us, (we are publishing the Bayanihan News, the most read little newspaper in the Filipino community in Australia in limited copies), to reprint this article in our July issue. Since our newspaper is still a struggling newspaper we would not be able to pay the usual honorary or writer's fee for a good article like yours. However, we would provide full credit to you and the Philippine Free Press. We want all Filipinos living in Australia to get the most recent political information about the Philippines. Renato Perdon, [email protected] Editor, Filipino Section Bayanihan News Sydney, Australia, June 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr. Abaya I appreciate your emails. Keep it coming Mabuhay Ka Mckoi Pernia, [email protected] Ortigas Center, June 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I totally agree. PGMA is doomed and cursed to fail. And to think, she had just completed her first year of a 6-year term. Five more years is inconceivably long and painful for Filipino people to suffer under her reign of "uncertainties". Let's wait till the middle class, civil society, business leaders and religious groups begin to make noise, then, we can start to sing the (in)famous line of Frank Sinatra's...."And now, the end is near, and so I face the final curtain..". Thanks. Jerome Escobedo, [email protected] June 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, The administration is looking at the opposition (Mr. Estrada, particularly) as the source of this debacle. Have they thought of considering the Lopez family as the possible culprit, since if Gloria is kicked out of office, Noli de Castro, a Lopez boy, would take over as president. A more scary scenario. Chito Salalac, [email protected] June 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, 1. Re the 1995 ratings of FVR: the first big drop, in the 1st half of the year, was due to the Flor Contemplacion tragedy (the power outages were no longer a "crisis"); the second big drop was due to the big rice price spike in August (the govt knew that rice production was in trouble early in the year, but didn't want to make orders to import rice, for fear of bad publicity prior to the 1995 senatorial election). 2. I wish you would just follow our practice of reporting net scores as, for instance, +19 or -33. There is no need to spell out 'plus' or 'minus'; even elementary school pupils know + and - . It is also misleading to put in the % symbol, like "+19%" or "-33%" since a net score is not a proportion of anything (i.e., there is no 100% to which the "-33%" is to be applied) but only a number ranging from +100 to -100. These are just little academic remarks, of course. The substance of your article is OK all the way. Regards, Mahar Mangahas, [email protected] Social Weather Stations, June 20, 2005 MY REPLY. 1. You�re right: Flor Contemplacion was the cause of FVR�s drop in net approval rating. 2. This is a matter of personal style preference. Additionally, if I recall my arithmetic, units do not disappear in addition and subtraction operations. Bananas less bananas equals bananas. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Hope you don't mind. I'm Manny. I fear the catastrophe that would follow GMA's resignation, even if voluntary. I don't know if the country will survive it. I'd like to pin my hope, even if dim, on her personal conversion, to at least get her nose above the water in terms of credibility. We seem to have enough economic forces going in our favor. What personal conversion? We can start with three: resignation of her son, resignation of her brother-in-law, exile of her husband. No. 4 to 100 -- neutralize 97 other known crooks, cads and sundry criminals, including the starry and executive varieties. Then rebuild her decimated cabinet. Stop driving away her competent people, to begin with. Then, and a most important "then", forget about becoming a president-for-life. And for us, storm heaven. We have a friend who just arrived there, who loved us, and whom the Father loved, and the Mother loved. Do we have any other viable choice? Manny Lim, [email protected] June 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Granting that GMA escapes all the accusations and issues against her (with a big help from the not-really-supreme-and-credible Supreme Court), the only way she could recover will take a lot of pain on her part. First thing she can do is to jail the biggest corrupt crooks (but I don't think she has the balls). The public will not be satisfied until they see the heads of Jose Pidal (este FG Mike Arroyo), Kangkongressman Mikee Arroyo and the eternal fall guy a.k.a. "Jose Pidal" who goes by the name tongressman Iggy Arroyo roll. No, I am not interested in their execution, but having them served true justice. If she can do this, she can earn the public's (and perhaps also the opposition's) respect, even if just a little. Next thing she can do is to really check the situation of the ordinary, poor Juan de la Cruz. Yes she can always claim that the drastic measures she is doing now will benefit the people tomorrow. What is important to the people right now is to have food on their table. Raising taxes and all prices without raising wages to an approximate and competitive level will never be comprehended by empty stomachs. But then again, how about the unemployed and underemployed? Something has to give, and something has to be done. She can also check the spiraling lust for money of greedy petroleum companies. Enough is enough. Sure, motorists will understand that fuel prices are affected by global price of crude oil. But what is obnoxious is that our players raise their prices when the rest of the world effects a price roll-back. There are a lot more she must do after those three. Those are, I think, the biggest concerns of the people, from class A to crowd E. Never mind the ratings all surveys give her. If she can confidently and peacefully walk the streets without her bodyguards, with her head held up high, and without fear someone will go after her throat, then she can disregard whatever anyone says against her. That is, if she can ever walk beyond the gates of Malacanang. Martinez Felipe Rommel, [email protected] June 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I agree with you that somebody (not Erap, not Abat, not FVR, not any of the trapos), must emerge from all of these and catch fire with the middle class, convince one or two generals to his side, and lead us through. I can think of one who fits, (you may not agree) but he is none other than Ping Lacson! He is a politician allright, but do not have the image of a tradpol. He is one figure who can talk to the middle class, to some sectors of the Military and the Police! We need somebody with a will power to curb corruption in our various institutions, He is the guy. I believe he can also be acceptable to the neocons in as far as "no-questions-asked militancy against terrorists". Rey Abella, [email protected] Tarlac, June 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The refusal of Pres. Arroyo (a.k.a Mrs. Pidal) to speak on the �Hello! Garci� tape is eating up on her credibility�what�s left of it. At the rate she�s becoming the butt of jokes (heard on radio, TV, Internet, and in ordinary citizens� conversations), it�s not far off when she�ll become irrelevant, impotent, and her crime of rigging the elections irrefutable and irremissible. Before she�s laughed out of office and be seen by history as a cruel joke, and if she has an ounce of patriotism left in her, she should plan--and plan well--to leave with grace and a bit of honor intact. If... Vicente C. de Jesus, [email protected] June 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Sir Tony, Appreciate the article. Imelda was perceived by the supposed many that she was the mastermind in the assassination of Ninoy, but she weathered all of this. She even sat in Congress. Ferdie [RIP] is even in the book of Guinness [?]. PGMA should prod Iggy and Mikey to resign from Congress. Sandra with Chavez at her back is willing to bet her life with her allegations.. The contents of the alleged tapes should be dissected word for word. It is very easy to insinuate anything depending on which side of the fence one is in. It is the Filipino culture to call intimate friends/subordinates by their nicknames or by their first names. I have not read all of what Ms Coronel transcribed of the contents of the alleged tapes. I wished she should have had said that her transcriptions from the Visayan language were more specific, that is, either from Ilonggo, Cebuano, Chabacano, Waray, etc. PGMA should stand her ground, stay on course unless some crazy guys or professed godlike leaders commit a real "coup d'etat". Then we will be back to square one. Let us all pray fervently. Yes, PGMA, will recover provided there will be no coup d'etat. Roger L Madrigal, [email protected] June 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Before forcing "President" GMA to resign, it is strongly suggested to first legislate the adoption of the Philippine Grand Jury and Trial Jury systems by the Initiative process under RA 6735. Once in place, all her minions should be called by a grand jury to testify. If all of them would lie on anything for, or about, her, they could all be charged for obstruction of justice and conspiracy. If they refuse to come forward to testify, they can be charged for obstruction of justice nonetheless. When all of them are already convicted for lying, or for obstruction of justice, perhaps it would be the time to recant their testimonies and become witnesses against "President" PGMA. Eventually, she will become a "Nixon" and find no one else to turn at to lie for her. The fact that most Filipinos are either unemployed or underemployed, they would not hesitate to convict her spin doctors first. Unemployed jurors would not be scared to decide against grafters or election cheaters, "soft touch" kidnappers and electoral terrorists because such jurors cannot anymore be fired from their jobs for obvious reasons. Jurors could not care less about the so-called inter-departmental respect because they are the replica of the sovereign people(Art. II, Sec. 1, Phil Const) over each officials in the three great branches of government. Here are the web sites for the adoption of the Jury Systems for the Philippines: Petition to COMELEC - http://anticorruption.homestead.com/Compressedf.html Proposed Jury Law - http://anticorruption.homestead.com/Compressed.html Steps for enactment by Initiative - http://anticorruption.homestead.com/Steps.html The jury system is the most dignified and surest civil means for the sovereign common people (in a civilized democracy - let's make the Philippines one of those) in forcing anyone from public service to resign or to enforce government decency. Public demonstrations or attempted coup d'etat to oust a bad president is more speculative and a hit and miss proposition. They seldom succeed. Even if any of these processes succeeds, the new occupant in power serves only as a potential replacement grafter similar to the replaced prior Grafter-In-Chief, like "President" GMA who took over the presidency from Joseph Estrada. Congressional (Senate and House) investigations alone cannot force out a president to resign because of constitutional inter-departmental courtesies without the support of public demonstrations by the sovereign people. With juries, the people can oust a president by indicting and convicting first all her cohorts and cronies by grand juries and convicted by trial juries until she becomes a "loner" in Malacanyang. If ouster is accomplished by the jury system, the new occupant in office will have to think many times before attempting to embark on corrupt practices because it would be easy to cripple him by convicting first his cohorts through the juries. If we recall, the Nixon Watergate scandal, it took only a few weeks to force Mr. Nixon to resign just as soon as the handy men around him were indicted and found guilty who later volunteered to testify against him during grand jury investigations were directed towards him. Marlowe Camello, [email protected] Homeland, California, June 22, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I�m sure she�ll ride it out. Damaged. But she�ll see it through. Don�t underestimate what a wily ruthless shrew the woman can be. As I sit here watching traffic file past my window and see street urchins scratching at their windows, ANC is incessantly blaring out senseless live broadcasts from Congress on my TV. The juxtaposition makes me wish we had other topics to talk about and think about than this. It�s not that I love GMA, but I wish a violent black plague of a death for all the opposition for being such a mess. They are making me feel bad for her. Ah well. Perhaps she should play the underdog card. Carlos Celdran, [email protected] June 22, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Thank you for sharing your piece, "Can GMA Recover" in which I agree with you on basically all points. Her Excellency's spin doctors are giving us the run-around thinking the people for fools. A friend of mine described it succinctly, "praning". I would like to share with you a speech that I delivered during the Philconsa meeting last Tuesday, 21 June. It advocates a "Constructive Armed Forces for Democracy" which I believe is appropriate for the situation we have today as the nation again reaches a crossroad in its political life. There will be people who will put meaning into the concept but sedition or revolution is not being proposed. I think that in times like this, the AFP can play the role of a referee and a facilitator. Anyway, the attached is for your reference. I would appreciate it if you can circulate among friends, especially in the military. Food for thought. Capt. (Ret.) Rene Jarque, [email protected] June 22, 2005 MY REPLY. I will comment on Capt. Jarque�s article in a separate article. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |