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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Abat�s Revolutionary Junta By Antonio C. Abaya Written March 29, 2005 For the Manila Standard, March 31 issue Two papers are currently circulating on the Internet that explicitly call for or predict the imminent collapse of the government of President Arroyo. One is a paper written by Fortunato U. Abat, former AFP chief-of-staff, former defense secretary and former ambassador to the People�s Republic of China, all during the watch of President Fidel Ramos. Not for the first time, Abat calls for the installation of a revolutionary government to replace the present one. He had previously advocated this tack more than a year ago. (See my article �Provisional Government,� Jan. 28, 2004.) In its present incarnation, the Abat Plan calls for an authoritarian government in which the AFP will choose its own commander-in-chief, while unidentified members of civil society will appoint a chief executive officer as head of government. It has a slight resemblance to the Roman Republic morphing into the Roman Empire around 30 BC, except that our ramshackle empire does not extend much further, figuratively speaking, than the Payatas garbage dump. While many concerned Filipinos, including this writer, have expressed a preference for an authoritarian government to replace the failed, toothless and spineless, 70-year old (counting from the 1935 Commonwealth) liberal democratic cripple, the Abat Plan is itself not an attractive alternative. It assumes that there are enough high-ranking officers in the military who are of such unquestioned integrity that their choice of a commander-in-chief from among their ranks would meet with automatic public approval. In the light of the exposed cupidity and vast, unexplained wealth of Generals Carlos Garcia and Jacinto Ligot, and their undoubtedly wide network of military accomplices, that assumption is naive. As the recent examples of extra-constitutional change in governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan show, people power must involve the people in their hundreds of thousands in public demonstrations in favor of the change-over. A coterie of military generals meeting in a smoke-filled room in Camp Aguinaldo to choose the new commander-in-chief is not any more credible than a coterie of civil society do-gooders meeting in a smoke-filled room in Club Filipino to choose the new head-of-government. And having two, inevitably competing, centers of power at the very start dooms the enterprise even before it gets started. These details are best left in the drafting of the new constitution that will replace the old. How many middle class supporters, the shock troops of Edsa 1 and Edsa 2, can Abat hope to draw to a new Edsa uprising with his Plan? Right now, only Susan Roces and Evangelist Eddie Villanueva have the capability to draw hundreds of thousands of Filipinos to any political gathering that can be the basis for another People Power. But Ms. Roces has publicly stated that she is not interested in entering politics, and Villanueva is said to be weighing his options. Will he accept the formula drafted by Abat? Probably not, since he no doubt has his own ideas about the whys and wherefores of a revolutionary government. If Abat is laying the groundwork for the return to power of Fidel V. Ramos, as some observers suspect, the outlook is not very promising either. In the celebration of the 19th anniversary of People Power last Feb. 25, only 200 pathetic spectators-celebrants showed up, vastly outnumbered by 1,500 security policemen. But the media,� influenced� by the jimpols of Malacanang, showed no pictures of the crowd (because there wasn�t any) and did not run any estimate on how many showed up (because they were so few). No wonder Cardinal Sin refused to get up from his car to address the �crowd.� (See my article �The Incredible Shrinking Edsa Crowd,� March 01.) Granted that the primary object of the collective snub was President Arroyo herself. But the presence on the stage of Ramos (together with former president Cory Aquino and House Speaker Jose de Venecia) did not seem to generate a flicker of excitement in middle-class hearts. Does this not tell Abat the extent of popular disenchantment with the politicians, including his own soldier-turned politician idol FVR? Any extra-constitutional change of government has to be supported by the middle-class in their hundreds of thousands, not only because this would be the initial basis for its legitimacy, pending the drafting and ratification of a new constitution and the holding of new elections, but also because it will be acrimoniously opposed by the communists, who have their own ideas about who should constitute a revolutionary government. Without broad middle-class support, Abat�s revolutionary junta is likely to exhaust its revolutionary momentum fighting an expanded civil war with the communists before it can get its reform package on stream. The other paper doing the rounds of the egroups on the Internet is from a previously unheard of American analysis firm called Condor Adviser Inc., predicting the collapse of the Arroyo Government due to a social revolt triggered by a financial and forex crisis from a default on its foreign debt, as in Argentina in the 1990s. While this scenario is less likely with the higher receipts from export, tourism and OFW remittances in recent months, it cannot be discounted completely because of the massive entry of �hot money� into the economy, manifested in the steady rise in the value of the peso in the past weeks and months. �Hot money,� here to speculate in the stock and real estate markets, not to be invested in job-generating industries, is vulnerable to sudden flight out of the country at the slightest hint of trouble, be it a sudden upsurge in terrorism or a default in our foreign debt or nagging political instability. As in the 1997 Asian financial crisis, a sudden flight of �hot money� from the country will collapse the value of the peso, cause the closure or retrenchment of hundreds of businesses with dollar-denominated loans, add to unemployment, raise the cost of living even more due to a devalued peso�.all the ingredients for the predicted social revolt. It can therefore make a bad situation worse and can cause a foundering government, like the Arroyo Government, to finally collapse from the weight of its own unfulfilled promises, its downright poor track record in governance, and its now unsurpassed (except by Indonesia) reputation for corruption among 12 countries in Asia. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Abat�s Revolutionary Junta� Dear Mr. Abaya, Why not browse SamarNews.com? We have published online Jose Galang Caedo III's reaction to the Abat wish. As a former Political Science mentor, I find Mr. Caedo very erudite and very knowledgeable. (Even if he is from the University where Mr. Arroyo studied and where Mr. Erap dropped out.) I sometimes feel that no one can hold a candle to his brilliance. And he is blind. Sometimes I compare him to Diogenes, looking for the honest man. I hope he has felt my face and has decided that I am an honest man. Hahahahaha. But of course, you are not a babe in swaddling clothes. If the CIA and the Pentagon and the Evangelicals in America will order the 7th Fleet to surround the Philippine Seas so that our members of the Guardian Class can become Philosopher Kings and Queens, we cannot really do anything about it. Well, some of us can opt to die of course if they find the possibility of working under Generals Carlos Garcia and Ligot worse than death. Or others can be egged on to die. A bloodbath will just validate Malthus' theory. After all with 85 million Filipinos, some of whom are eating garbage from the trash cans, perhaps this is indeed what the believers in Endtimes and The Rupture are hoping for so that they meet their creator as soon as possible. After all, life is so hard. So why continue to live? Cesar Torres, [email protected] April 02, 2005 wewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I would like you to get hold of the book 2004 release, A Country of Our Own, subtitled Partitioning the Philippines by David Martinez, author. It is publishd by Bisaya Publication in Los Angeles, California that became available since Sept. 24, 2004. The work of the author is well- researched, factual, analytical, irreverent of the present and past administrations. In the aftermath of his scholarly analysis of the Philippine situations, he proposes partitioning the Philippines into 5 "nations". The more I read the book, the more things start to make sense as the only viable alternative to change the course of history. Good luck in your reading. We would like you to critique this book. I look forward to read your critique after you've done so. Elsa Bayani, [email protected] April 02, 2005 MY REPLY. Send me a review copy and I will critique it. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony --- just a small point... When I first went to Beijing with an oil buying mission from PNOC, Abat was our ambassador there. We even visited his embassy residence. That was still definitely during the watch of Mr Marcos. Boo Chanco, [email protected] Philippine Star, April 02, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: Corrections of facts: Abat was RP China envoy during Marcos, not Ramos, era. Also, Abat was never AFP Chief but only CG-PA, also during Marcos rule. But Abat was Defense Sec. at the tail-end of FVR term - and then became head of John Hay Poro Point Development Corp. under GMA. I guess Abat is now trying to make up for some mistakes of past service. I leave it up to you to pick which one(s). As to his proposal, I wish someone would set up a real revolutionary government soon. What do we have to lose at this stage? If it gets worse, then so be it. We'd probably quicken the process for things to eventually get better. Who will support a really well-intentioned military? Plenty, especially if they start by stringing up some comptrollers and their boss on Day 1. On Day 2, the junta can tell past Presidents and their families to give back some of their plunder. Then on Day 3 they can execute some selected politicians. With these as clear demonstrations of intent, I would step forward to help - and I know many more will come forward then. Gen. Abat, umpisahan mo na! Tito Osias, [email protected] April 02, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Sir, Having a revolution or a military junta is not the solution. You are right in saying that the military lost the credibility or moral ascendancy to lead our country because of the cases of Generals Ligot, Garcia and Col. Rabusa. And having a revolution will only result to another revolution since it has proven to be a cycle, and our country can't afford that. However, we cannot discount that many in the military (not generals) still care for this country and are doing their fair share of sacrifices. I'm not talking of the Oakwood mutineers but military officers (yes many of them are pmayers) who just choose to do what is right for the sake of the AFP organization and our country. I believe that these officers, and their counterpart in the civilian sector, with noble ideals, are our hope. You can gather them in one forum and nurture their ideals so that it will not go haywire. We can invest on our youth and prepare them to handle the reigns or they maybe empowered to participate more openly. Anyway, it is our future which is at stake, so why can't we have a stronger voice? I propose that we organize a leadership forum of a few good young men from all sectors of the society, let them interact, elect a leader and organize a sectoral representative which we hope to make an impact to the political system, to the youth and the middle class. From there, we can just hope that these few good young men will keep on holding on their ideals, gain more strength to fight for what is right (and not what is popular) and hope some more ,that their idealism will rub on to our countrymen. We may not have the immediate effect that we expect but at least we can now hope that there is hope in the future. And hope is the only thing that we have. Leo Guinid, [email protected] April 03, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi, Tony - it was good to see you last month even only briefly; much as I love all the gatherings (and food!) it is not a time where one can carry on meaningful discussion. I feel greatly discouraged about our country , especially reading your most recent essay about Abat; then the US Government State department directive putting the Philippines on its "travel danger" list only a week after we returned! Then much talk about families encouraging their children to have another foot in Canada or Australia (they've given up on US) or wherever because the economic prospects and political climate are so bleak. Doesn't look too encouraging, does it? Cayo Marschner, [email protected] California, April 03, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The "imminent collapse" of everything has been predicted. Maybe the authors should write Nostradamus style. Even if they are not believable they can try to be amusing. Ross Tipon, [email protected] Baguio City, April 03, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww believe me, if abat scenario prevails, we either be rwanda or nigeria. civl war and genocide. that is my prediction. so exert all efforts to stop it. Fredt, [email protected] April 03, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww My Dear Abaya, Thank you for sending me that most interesting letter on the upcoming revolution. You are calling a lot of things correctly Strangely enough I was in Argentina for the second Mrs. Peron�s revolution when her honour guard helicopter picked her up and flew her into oblivion. She was marginally stupider than Gloria. I really am of the opinion that Edsa 1, 2 and 2 � were false constructs, just as Edsa 3 will be. The masses were irrelevant. The ruling dynasty has never even missed a beat through the Marcos, Cory, Ramos, Estrada, and Gloria Presidencies. It is conceivable that Ramos, Enrile and Venecia and their cabal were the original foundation. I think Cha Cha is to get, and keep them in power. There is certainly no possible advantage to the Philippines to having Cha Cha. If we can screw up a simplistic American type political system just think how badly we would do with a complex honour system based on 1000 years of English common Law. Mugabe in Zimbabwe is one possible outcome. (My uncle was the Auditor General of Mugabe�s country when Mugabe was still a Communist). Regarding Abat�s scenario. I think the matter is very pressing for his cabal because if they convict General Garcia there will have to be a coup d�etat. Nobody in the military above the rank of private can sleep easy. Gloria made the stupid mistake of saying she was going to clean up corruption, then to compound it she pretended to actually start a clean up. She pretty quickly had to reverse her �fiscal crisis� policy so she could back down. Quite stupidly she has actually started on her �Acquired wealth� test which has probably 10% of the ruling class terrified. She has to go!, and that is that!. Never mind all these fancy altruistic and moral reasons we are attaching her. Abat�s approach is �trial balloons�, he will keep floating them until someone agrees with them and then they willtry it for real. Abat wants military power as his strength. He remembers the �good old days� I suspect that the military as it stands today is a toothless tiger. In the 1980�s there was a US funded military presence. They and the NBI were on every street corner. Nowadays I can go a whole day and never even see one military person. Because there are no more communists to fight only terrorists (joke), the US does not want a change in government here, and will not help. I think it would be a hard sell to get the ranks who are not directly threatened by Gloria�s clean up, to rise up or back a military Junta. Abat�s allowing the military to choose their own chief of staff is not worth much. (except if they choose Abat) The last little mutiny was more against the generals� corruption than against the government. Their highest ranking rebel was only a lieutenant or something, not exactly a coup d�etat. Abat�s plan will never come to pass unless he convinces the rest of the Power Cabal, who are threatened by the corruption purge, to back him. It would be a toothless military backing if he went that route. People inherently dislike the military so they will not come to the streets for the military psychopaths. In my opinion we are still seeing the hopes and aspirations of Ramos, Enrile and de Venecia, wrapped up in hidden agendas. The middle class do not yet figure in the equation, they are desperately trying to hang onto their imagined privilege. In all of recorded history the middle class have never made a move until the end result is guaranteed in their favour, and usually at the expense of the lower classes. Looking at other hopefuls as successors is not on. Brutus does not stab Caesar until the whole Senate agrees and the result is guaranteed. Any change of leader in the Philippines will be a well orchestrated conspiracy. I am more intrigued by the �Financial� scenario. All politics is about Power and all power is vested in Money. Axiom. Your counter arguments to Condor�s reasons may not be as valid as you think. DEBT DEFAULT. To decide what effect this will have on the incumbent government we need to know:- Will default benefit the ruling class more than a non-default? The middle class and the masses are irrelevant to this equation. You mention modifying factors to default, such as Tourism. Even at its best, our tourism is a joke. We had less than 2 million tourists last year. Singapore, nearly 10 Million, Thailand, nearly 20 million, China, over 40 million. Last week this City had to refuse a Chinese tourist company�s request to send a plane load of tourists here every week. The Mayor and the Governor agreed we could not handle them The Philippines is at least one and possibly two generations away from being able to create enough of a social tourist culture and the necessary supporting infrastructure. OFW�s: The changing global economy and its resultant social changes will no longer present unlimited opportunities for our OFW�s. Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia are just the beginning. The American Empire is declining fast, and the American dream for Filipinos is almost over. Eastern Europe has unlimited supplies of cheap labour for Europe. The Philippine education system is now so far behind and its English has slipped to such a low level that the Filipino no longer has the advantages they used to have. You may know that in the 1960�s the Philippines was the US�s biggest supplier of Doctors. They supplied 7000 doctors, more than all of Europe combined. Across-the-board, as equals. Last year our best doctor-graduate went to the US as a Nurse. This City can�t find enough real English speaking people to even open a call centre. HOT MONEY, is often a two edged sword, and if one is using it as a primary source of income, one is very vulnerable. Money moves out at the speed of light and always leaves a vacuum. VALUE OF THE PESO: Strangely the value of the peso to the Canadian Dollar has remained at about 42 to C$1.00. We are being given a false message by our media. The American Dollar is in trouble at present and we keep being told our peso is so strong. The US needs $44 Trillion to get ahead of its game. General Motors is about to declare Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. The company is worth $16 Billion but it owes its bond holders $150 Billion. The Philippines has insufficient industrial or mining or even agricultural base to justify any increase in the Peso strength. All we are trying to do is stop the bleeding and that does not increase the blood supply. As I reinterpret Marx, Engles, Lenin, Trotsky, and all the other Revolutionaries, revolution is not possible from the bottom up. The average Egyptian and Chinese Dynasty lasted somewhere in the region of 300 years, with draconian exploitation and suppression of the masses. At one point 25% of a population were starved to death by taxes. The poor stand absolutely no chance of getting organized. It is always factions of the powerful ruling class that organize the revolution and then usually get the military to do most of the physical work with the peasants pushing at the back with shovels and pitchforks. The middle class are the dangerous ones. They never commit until they can guarantee a victory one way or the other. They have too much to lose if things turn out badly. They cheer for one side, while placing their bets for the other side, just in case. The peasants have nothing to lose so they give it their all, just in case they can do better in the future. Death is often better than the life they have. The middle class always play both sides, and when victory is certain choose the winning side and then promptly double cross all the poor peasants in order to maintain their privilege at the expense of the peasants. Think of all those misguided people who demonstrated at Edsa 1 and 2. Their lives have gotten progressively worse. The ruling dynasty�s lives have gotten progressively better. Gloria will be ousted by the R,E, de, cabal in cahoots with the members of the ruling class who feel threatened, and assisted by the ruling class who are losing wealth because of the incumbent governments policies. The Military may be used, the masses may be called to the streets, but it is always Brutus who stabs Caesar. Our dynasty is safe, only the heads of Hydra will change. Regards Graham Reinders, [email protected] April 03, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The Abat Plan is not an attractive alternative. what is the better alternative? Have you seen the whole Program for National Salvation? Fortunato U. Abat, [email protected] April 06, 2005 MY REPLY. What is the better alternative? Let me write a column on that. In the meantime, do send me a copy of your Program for National Salvation. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww |
| Dear Tony, Correct me if I'm wrong but, if I remember right, the changeover of government in the countries you've mentioned followed an orderly transition to caretaker governments made up of a credible opposition. These caretaker governments are now working on the reforms being promised. This is the same tack we followed in EDSA 1 and 2. The problem is that both caretaker governments of Cory Aquino and GMA failed to deliver. I believe that like Cory Aquino, GMA is going to finish her term even if she fails to address the issue of good governance. This is because there is no credible alternative that the middle-class can support. Raul Rocco has provided high hopes in the early part of the last election, but his campaign faltered under the weight of gross mismanagement. In the absence of a credible national opposition movement to GMA's government, we here in Mindanao are taking our own initiative. We're moving ahead with calling for constitutional change that would lead to a federal form of government and a parliamentary system. She has reneged on her campaign promise to support these constitutional changes that are supposed to take effect in the 2010 election. We believe that only through a federal form of government and a parliament directly accountable to the people can we in the regions free ourselves from a national government perennially held captive by vested interest. If GMA doesn't relent on her decision to postpone constitutional changes, we're moving ahead with calling for an independent Mindanao together with our Muslim brothers in the south. We've just had our One People Mindanao (OPM) congress last week and the dye is cast. OPM is a multi-sectoral movement of individuals and organizations from business, the NGO community, politics, civic organizations, academia and the youth. Actually, most of the prime movers of OPM are disappointed prime movers of EDSA 1 and 2 here in Mindanao. Perhaps we can invite you to our next congress. Regards, Gico Dayanghirang, [email protected] [email protected] Davao City/Davao Oriental April 24, 2005 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |