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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| 25 to One?
By Antonio C. Abaya Written Oct. 10, 2007 For the Standard Today, October 11 issue Twnety five pesos to one US dollar? Albay Governor Joey Salceda, a former economic adviser to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, predicts that in five years the peso-dollar exchange rate will drop to this level, �on the back of strong economic growth and continuously rising remittances (from OFWs),� according to the headline story of the Standard Today of October 06. This fearless forecast is in synch with several others, including from analysts in the local financial market, that the exchange rate will drop to as low as P40 to one US dollar by year�s end. What bothers me is that these prophets seem to regard these drops in the exchange rate as some kind of glorious epiphany, devoutly to be wished, towards the Holy Grail of, yes, First World status. The peso is indeed strengthening, but it is not strengthening commensurate to the real but modest increases in exports, tourism, investments abroad, gross international reserves, or even workers� remittances. The peso is strengthening, like so many other currencies worldwide, because the dollar is weakening, and weakening amidst dark forebodings about an uncertain future. Corollary to the weakening of the dollar is the rise in the price of oil, which now stands at around $80 a barrel. Oil producing countries are raising the price of their oil, not so much in response to an increase in demand, as to compensate for the drop in value of their petro-dollars. As the dollar weakens (and the peso strengthens), the price of oil will go up. There are predictions that the price of oil will touch $100 in 2008. How much will the peso-dollar exchange rate be then? P35 to $1? Are we ready for this? Assuming an average of five members per family, the eight million or so overseas contract workers and their families number some 40 million Filipinos, or about 45 percent of our total estimated population of 88 million. When the peso-dollar exchange rate was P55 to $1 a little over a year ago, each $100 remitted home every month brought that family P5,500. When that rate goes down as predicted to P40 to $1 by year�s end, that $100 will bring them only P4,000. When the rate goes down even more to P35 to $1, as the price of oil arguably goes up to $100, the family will get only P3,500. When Salceda�s dream scenario of P25 to $1 unfolds, each worker�s family will get only P2,500 for every $100. When you hear church bells pealing at this point, it may not be a sign of joyous thanksgiving, but may be a signal that the Revolt of the Masses has (finally) begun. Of course, as the exchange rate goes down to P25 to$1, it would take only about half as much pesos to pay off a $1 billion debt and/or to service it. Of course, it would also take only about half as much pesos to buy a barrel of oil, assuming the price does not go up to $200 a barrel, as the dollar continues to weaken. But try explaining that to a worker�s family whose dream of deliverance from poverty is being wrecked by Salceda�s strengthening peso. A strengthening peso will also reduce the competitiveness of our export industries, and undermine the viability of our tourism industry, as their dollar earnings bring them less and less pesos. (It has just been announced that our exports dropped 4.8% in the month of August, after seven months of steady increases.) The winners will be the importers, especially the importers of luxury goods, since it would take less and less pesos to bring in the expensive gewgaws and accoutrements of their filthy-rich clients. If Salceda�s scenario unfolds to its logical conclusion, we will have a situation in which the workers� remittances � larger in dollar terms than the net earnings of our import-dependent exports and relatively weak tourism � become the main prop for the lifestyles of the rich and infamous, while the struggling middle class pick up the pieces of their shattered lives and look for countries to migrate to. It is an obscene scenario, but it may not be all that improbable. It has been unfolding the past few years. A P25-to-$1 rate will just accelerate the spiral towards oblivion. And it is not just our internal and parochial concerns that should worry us. A continually weakening US dollar will reduce US imports from the rest of the world, including the Philippines . Many national economies will suffer because of that. It is likely that the recent spate of negative publicity in the US regarding Chinese products � toys, pet food, toiletries, rubber tires, fish and marine products, etc � was deliberately orchestrated to reduce the US trade deficit with China. Two Chinese officials have issued threats of retaliation, citing the one trillion dollars that China holds in US treasury bonds and other dollar instruments.. And it is not just the Chinese who hold the Americans by the proverbial balls. A recent (Sept 20) article in The Telegraph in the UK quotes a senior executive of the bank BNP Paribas that � Saudi Arabia has $800 billion in their future generation fund, and the entire ( Persian Gulf ) region has $3.5 trillion under management. They face an inflationary threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the recessionary conditions in the US ,� This was in reaction to the recent lowering of the primary interest rate in the US by the Federal Reserve Board � the US central bank � to save the US economy from recession following the near-collapse of the credit market as a result of the implosion of the sub-prime property sector The danger, said The Telegraph, is that foreign investors (such as the oil producing Gulf states) will pull out, as some have already done, from the long-term US debt markets, given the low yield under the low interest rates, leaving the dollar dependent on short-term funding. �The Saudi central bank said today that it would take �appropriate measures� to halt huge dollar inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.� A global inflation of dollars will weaken it even more (as it strengthens Salceda�s peso). But the net effect will not be the Philippines becoming a First World country by 2020 or 2017, as President Arroyo and Joey Salceda obviously think it will, but a possible global economic and financial crisis the likes of which has never happened before. Displaying a more sanguine economic sense than either President Arroyo or Gov. Salceda, the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP) has called on overseas contract workers to dump their US dollars and hoard their savings in pesos. �We are strongly urging our workers and their families here to protect the value of their savings by investing in pesos and avoiding the dollar, in view of the probability that lower US interest rates will soon trigger a bigger flight out of the US currency,� the TUCP said in its Oct. 06 statement. Fasten your seat belts. Turbulence � not First World status - ahead. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or [email protected]. Other articles in www.tapatt.org and in acabaya.blogspot.com. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �25 to One� More Reactions to �Mystery Solved� More Reactions to �On Rene Saguisag� Saguisag�s Letters to�.. Mr. Abaya, Economists like GMA should make things simpler for the laymen to understand the conundrums of supply and demand, economic prosperity or decline etc. However, it is apparent that some economists will continue to befuddle the public with their impossible mathematical computations and predictions. Why can't the government be upfront on what really is going on? I am no economist but I think there is something terribly wrong with the estimates and predictions. I do read a lot and find that the government explanation on the Philippines ' supposed progress becoming illogical each day. Even the experts could not explain why oil had to hit $80 per barrel. (See Hargreaves, S. (20 September 2007). The debate behind $80 oil. http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/20/news/economy/oil_execs/index.htm?postversion=2007092016 ) Grace Santos , (by email), Oct. 11, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Ano ba talaga ang gusto ninyong mangyari sa ating piso? Kapag nag-depreciate masama... Pag nag-appreciate, turbulence... Edwin T. Palma, (by email), Oct. 11, 2007 (Dapat fixed rate of exchange, pareho sa China at Malaysia, para hindi malugi ang mga OFWs, exporters at tourism industries, at para hindi mahikayat ang mga currency speculators na pumasok sa ating ekonomiya. Wala naman silang kontribusyon sa buhay natin. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Right on!! Alexander Po, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, It truly is mind-boggling that a former economic adviser sees a national economic advantage in a strong peso at this early stage of country's development. Doesn't he realize that one of the prime movers of growth of the export-based economies of Japan , China and the Asian Tigers was their weak currencies vis-�-vis the dollar? That as the peso gets stronger our indigenous export competitiveness gets correspondingly weaker? And that foreign investors which fuels growth would find Philippine labor more expensive and would therefore relocate their maquiladoras elsewhere? These are the reasons why smart China is at loggerheads with the U.S. in not allowing its renbi revalued. This one-dimensional thinking is, I believe, a throwback to our simplistic bourgeois past when we were mere babes in the woods. It is almost Freudian, so deeply ingrained, that we can't shed it off despite our education and contrary evidence in front of our very nose that devaluation is a double-edged sword, an economic event with dangers AND opportunities. I remember when my father sent my sister to the states for her master's degree. The exchange rate then was 2:1, then a semester later it became 2.5:1, or was it 3:1, I can't remember anymore. This very first devaluation was a shoku not only to him but to us kids, budget-wise and psychologically. It was as if it was the end of the Philippines . And for the next 5 decades the value of the peso shrank, each round a distressful handwringing event, and a chipping away of our faith in the Filipino, as if this metric was the only thing! (It reminded me of a Venezuelan a decade or so ago who lamented, "This nation is finished!" when their contestant failed to win an international beauty pageant!) But the Philippines stayed afloat albeit adrift, not despite of this devaluation, but because of it. A weak peso allowed foreign investments and tourists to come in, Filipino entrepreneurs gained advantage in export products, and effectively limited luxury imports. Without devaluation a stagnant economy = poverty = revolution would have sunk the Republic. Ironically, to deflate this salva vida of a weak peso by strengthening it spells disaster of Titanic proportions! Louie Fernandez, (by email), New Jersey , Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, It is disconcerting to learn that "economic experts" like Salceda have been advising GMA (an "economist" herself) all these years. We should miss the likes of Miguel Cuaderno, Sixto K. Roxas or even a Bernie Villegas, for that matter. I will even settle for a Felipe Medalla. Charlie Borromeo, (by email), San Francisco , CA , Oct 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I say: Fear not! Look at Thailand . During the �97 Asian economic meltdown we were almost just at par. Their rousing take off from the doldrums, sprinting ahead of us from the shambles of the starting block, was largely due to their dollar inflows from their sex driven tourism industry (ask our junketing legislators) and the fact that, prior to the financial crisis, they have invested heavily on infrastructure, particularly skyways and roadways that made possible quick access to their dollar-earning tourist spots and efficient movement of goods and services. I saw their many unfinished infras as a result of the financial crisis which they quickly completed knowing (common sense) that it is one of the critical keys to revving the economy (another, of course, is political stability) . That also helped keep prices of their local products down thus giving their population innate purchasing power to the products that really matter which is FOOD. The Baht continuously, became strong and is now 31.40 to the US dollar as a result. That did not make their masa revolt because their masa is more informed as they are less exposed to an asinine media such as what we have that bombards the population 24/7/365 with suspicion, hatred and despair. �Despite� a strong currency, their exports continue to reach far and wide displacing ours even on the shelves of Filipino stores overseas. That is an empirical fact that I personally observed abroad. Among many others, �yung patis natin napalitan na ng �made in Thailand � due to lower price and impressive export quality packaging designs. Thailand have their share of corruption though but Taksin and the rest were probably more discreet and kept their plundered loot circulating in their economy. No severe currency hemorrhage for them unlike our unfortunate dear Philippines during the kleptocratic rule of the Marcos family and their �smarter� than us cronies. Hey, am not saying we can tolerate corruption! So I say again, and with more emphasis: FEAR NOT! The families of our OFWs will not go hungry for as long as food is kept affordable to the general population. They are resilient and will be able to adjust with more prudent use of their new found purchasing power. They just have to put their money less into the huge kitty of Smart and Globe and more for the education of their children, in preparation to joining the ranks of productive members of society-. not necessarily as employees but small entrepreneurs in the countryside that will help stimulate our economy. There is, after all, light at the end of our long damp tunnel and I dare say it is not from a charging locomotive. Fear not, again I say. Edgardo J. T.Tirona, (by email), Paranaque City , Oct. 12, 2007 P.S. You may have noticed our bountiful harvest of fruits all over the place. We should patronize more our home-grown fruits and local products to help specially our small farmers with better prices on strong demand. Buy some today. In that way we also ultimately spread purchasing power to the countryside. Bueno. (I have been buying thousands of pesos worth of fresh Philippine fruits every month for several years now (because I genuinely like mango, banana, pineapple, atis, lanzones atbp). But it does not seem to have affected the rate of exchange at all. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww You wrote: "What bothers me is that these prophets seem to regard these drops in the exchange rate as some kind of glorious epiphany, devoutly to be wished, towards the Holy Grail of, yes, First World status." It should bother everyone since China is taking the opposite tack than our politicians. They have to be pressured by the US and Europe to raise the value of their currency: (See below). Bobby Manasan, (by email), Burke , Virginia , Oct. 12, 2007 Eurozone heads target yuan reform Eurozone ministers have called for China to reform its currency, saying it is too low in value. BBC NEWS Last Updated: Tuesday, 9 October 2007, 11:48 GMT 12:48 UK The ministers were gathering in Luxembourg ahead of a key meeting of the G7 nations later in October. While the US has long been a critic of China 's currency policy because it says a weak yuan harms exports of US goods, Europe has not been as vocal. TheEeurozone group said emerging countries - "especially China " - needed to change their exchange rates. 'Necessary adjustments' Analysts had seen the Luxembourg meeting as a test of how much the ministers could reach a consensus in advance of the G7 talks. "In emerging countries with large and growing current account surpluses, especially China , it is desirable that their effective exchange rates move so that necessary adjustments occur," the ministers said. In laying out the priority of topics under discussion, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Junker, who chaired the meeting, said: "First point China, second point dollar, third point Yen." Later on Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), confirmed that he and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia would travel to China in the coming months to talk directly to the Chinese government about the yuan. "We will engage in dialogue with the Chinese authorities to discuss macroeconomic policies, " said Mr Trichet, speaking to the European Parliament. Earlier this year, a US Senate committee supported plans to give its government new powers to counteract the impact of the low yuan, to better protect trade and workers. The G7 meeting, which will include the US , Japan , Canada , Britain as well as Eurozone nations France , Germany and Italy is scheduled for 19 October. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7035009.stm wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww That's rather a doomsday scenario you are picturing, ACA. The sustainability of a strong peso is a reflection of an improving economy and under any circumstances that is much better than having a weak peso in the face of a global financial crises. I would rather have a 25 peso to the dollar exchange rate when oil hits 150 dollars a barrel, than pay 100 pesos to one dollar for it. Oil is the basic element that runs all industries. The cheaper you pay for it the better for the industries. True, the very basic effects of a strong currency are exports become expensive while imports become cheaper, but that's what any economy is all about. There is always a trade off, a winner and loser any which way you turn the economy around. People just have to learn that they cannot have the best of two worlds. Thanks. Cesar M. de los Reyes, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, I doubt very much if the exchange rate will go back to P25 to $1 in 5 years or beyond, especially if Bangko Sentral will wake up to the evils of such scenario, which is within its power to prevent. As was seen in the Asian crisis, the exchange rate is a function of what happens not just in our country but also in other countries. If our peso will appreciate to P25 is to $1 (owing principally to OFW remittances) (The bigger factor is the weakening of the US dollar. ACA) and it sticks out like a sore thumb because all other Asian currencies do not experience the same extent of appreciation, then market forces operating on a regional scale will restore the equilibrium or parity among Asian currencies. This means that the unique appreciation of our currency will in turn KILL our EXPORTS--because FOREIGN BUYERS WILL THEN NEED MUCH MORE DOLLARS TO BUY OUR GOODS compared to those of our neighboring countries. The demise of our export industries will dry up our source of the more desirable dollar inflow--export of locally produced or manufactured goods, which involves production that employs Filipinos at home, unlike export of manpower that entails the sacrifices of our forlorn OFW's, many of whom are working under inhuman conditions in the Middle East and far flung corners of the world, on land and on the high seas. The drastic drop in exports will produce a counterbalancing negative effect on the peso that will temper its rise against the dollar. The best interests of advanced nations, where some of our central bankers studied economics and finance, and those of developing countries do not always run in parallel--because they are generally creditors and debtors, or exporters and importers, with opposing or conflicting interests. If advanced nations through IMFadvised us to go into free-market floating exchange rate--which we dutifully followed--then it is possible that this system is good for advanced nations (otherwise why would they counsel us to follow it?) and, if so, it may be bad for us! (So we should not always jump in joy if our Bangko Sentral Governor earns the distinction of being one of the best central bankers in the world from Euromoney or other award-giving institutions from advanced nations, which make judgments based on their self-serving interests.) The floating exchange rate had distorted or overstated the value of the peso before the Asian crisis, when, owing to inflow of short-term, volatile, or hot foreign funds, the peso appreciated and stood at the exchange rate better than P26 to the dollar. Exporters were complaining then but the central bank did nothing. The peso was overvalued because its appreciation came from the impact of the artificial increase in dollar supply from the temporary or volatile foreign funds that do not belong to our economy--these are not long-term foreign investments that are here to stay, but savings or demandable "deposits" in the form of money market placements or readily marketable securities that can be promptly preterminated or sold as needed. These will go into the tantrum of capital flight at the slightest provocation of economic aberration, as what actually took place in the Asian turbulence that sudddenly put the peso to its proper place--at depreciated level. Thus, for as long as other countries obey IMF and follow the IMF-prescribed floating exchange rate--which will then provide us benchmark data on free market exchange rates of competing currencies--all the Philippines has to do is to go into currency peg or fixed exchange rate. This scheme is criticized because its actual implementation was wrong--the rate was fixed at long intervals even when there were developments that warrant adjusting it. If adjusted often enough as the need arises, then it can work fairly well. What should be done is to maintain a parity between the peso and another currency, like the Thai baht, or basket of currencies, and adjust the peso exchange rate not just based on internal developments but also in accordance with the movements of the competing currencies under floating exchange rate, much like pricing a product taking into account the prices of competition. I understand Malaysia has gone into currency peg; I read not too long ago of advanced nations praising Malaysia for the expert handling of its economy. Currency peg is an open-secret behind the economic miracle that is China . It has stood its ground and refused to revalue its currency despite pressures and criticisms from advanced nations. Its intentionally maintained depreciated currency has boosted its exports, to the dismay of competitor advanced nations. For as long as we have enough dollars in servicing our foreign obligations and paying our imports of goods and services for a reasonable period, we can opt for currency peg. This will enable us to act according to the need of the hour--maintain the peso at a level more depreciated than competing Asian currencies, in order to promote our exports, as well as protect and sustain while badly needed our dollar inflow from some eight million OFW's. Bangko Sentral has been doing it for so long on local interest rates maintained at levels higher than those of our neighbor countries toattract foreign funds to our shores, why can't it do so in the case of the exchange rate for the sake of our economic growth and survival? Incidentally, the weakness of the dollar has been experienced for sometime now. If feasible, I suppose Bangko Sentral should have converted part of its $30-billion dollar reserves into euros to temper its exchange losses from the depreciating dollar. When I inquired, I learned that this is already being done by some clients of an international company operating in the Philippines . MarceloL. Tecson, (by email), San Miguel, Bulacan, Oct. 12, 2007 (I have also favored a fixed exchange rate or currency peg, like China �s and Malaysia �s. But this would be resisted by the IMF and President Arroyo, who are ideologically committed to free trade and globalization, including the free movement and fluctuation of capital. It would also be denounced by the credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor, Moody, Fitch, etc), whose benign opinion is courted avidly by the Arroyo administration, and who also favor the free movement of capital, so that currency speculators like George Soros � who is probably their godfather - can go in and out of any economy, there to reap their billions without contributing anything positive to that economy. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, You beat me to it. I was about to write a similar article with same heading..hahaha. Excellent dissertation. Best regards, Myrna Valdez, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww It's a case of too much of a good thing being not good for the health. It makes sense to control inflow as much as outflow. Amado Cabaero, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Yaiikkss!!! It hurts... About a year ago I was thinking of replacing my outmoded and decrepit car. But there was a second thought, I also thought of buying, instead, a property, a nicer and bigger house. Today, all those positive indecisions turned into a nightmare. I lost thousands from my US dollars because of what they called "bullish" (try to scramble the letters and add a t, and this is what I call it instead) peso. Instead, I am now thinking of finding another, higher paying job so as to go back to my dreams. (Now, the plan became a dream) I love my present job and I invested loyalty and year of service into it. I know that to get a substantial increase is to transfer to another company. I hate the way they are manipulating the theories of economics. Therefore, I remain to my perception that economics is not an exact science. As I see it, the natural law of supply and demand no longer holds through, even in empirical sense. Why do not the true economists come out? Regards. Edelberto Anit, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thanks for the interesting article. I suggest you order a poll, asking people: Is GMA corrupt? Is the First Gentleman corrupt? Is Jose de Venecia corrupt? It would be interesting to know the results Regards, Fritz Jahns, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Quick information: The US Government is artificially devaluating the American Dollar to compete with the Chinese Yuan because Red China is not about to re-evaluate their Yuan despite American pressure � that and the current financial crisis in the US due to bad loans and unpaid mortgages. You�re right, the economic gains we are �experiencing� are not solely an internal effort of the Philippine government but governed by international factors. Unfortunately, to the uneducated or to those that are not inclined to monitor global economic activity, the government can use this to indicate strong local economic growth. Incidentally, every other country that is tied with the American dollar in terms of reserves is experiencing the same artificial gains. Keep the articles coming � I love them. Dennis Ponce Tagamolila, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, Finally, an uncommon sanity check on our outlook towards Peso appreciation! Perhaps Salceda's thoughts about continued OFW remittance will be possible if our countrymen abroad and job placement agencies can negotiate with foreign employers to pay them in Euro or Pound - as if this was so simple. Thanks again for your wonderful insights. Eugene Earle, (by email), Oct. 12, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Sir Tony, The Phil gov't. with the help of the OFWs and Seaman had done their part. Now the rest lies on ourselve. We should stop crying for it will not do good for us. Be intelligent enough. It is time to adjust our style of living, the way we produce and consume, balance export and import (lesser importation). It is time for exporter and importers to source locally for needed raw materials and focus supplying local market that already has great taste of cheap imported products. Rodolfo Cada, (by email), Oct. 13, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, When President Bush leaves the White House and/or ends the Iraq War, the dollar will bounce back, you will see. The dollar is as resilient as the American people. Lionel Tierra, (by email), Sacramento , CA , Oct. 13, 2007 (Since George W. does not leave the White House until January 2009 and the Iraq War is not likely to end before that time, we have at least about 15 months� wait for the dollar and the American people to show their resilience, assuming he does not attack Iran in the meantime, in which case we may have to wait 20 years. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hello, Tony, I salute you for writing your �25 to one?�. It is really a wake-up call to us. Many Filipinos believe a strong peso (against the dollar) will free us from poverty chains. This is a FALLACY! Going back to the basic; a healthy economy is where the currency is fixed at a certain rate. Narciso S. Becera, (by email), Saudi Arabia , Oct. 14, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww More Reactions to �Mystery Solved� (Oct. 13, 2007) Kuya Tony Just go on. Don't let them cow you .. Who are they anyway !!! Toyen Alberto Abogado, Jr., (by email), Oct. 14, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww One of your readers wrote: You have become so biased in your writing. Journalist should still report facts, pros & cons. Opinion means nothing if you are not tempered by your onesidedness. Also, you seem to be so focused on your self importance. Your mystery tale is nothing but that..a mystery in your own mind. M. Gonzalez, (by email), Oct. 02, 2007 Tony, this guy is accusing you of being biased. Why would anyone fabricate such a story, least of all you, for self-importance? We all experienced getting our email to you blocked. The mystery was real, not a mere tale. Why didn't you answer him? Regards, Yett Montalvan, (by email), Oct. 14, 2007 (Sometimes, Yett, stupidity shines brightest when it is left alone. ACA) Wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Another reader wrote you: How insensitive, uncaring, and unfocused can our president and our legislators be to even plan to give our people tuxedos when more than 70% of them are clothed mostly in poverty? Or, to offer them champagne, strawberries, and caviar instead of giving the homeless, a home, the hungry, food, and their children, education? These are the areas where our national leaders must focus on and spend our tax pesos in, to alleviate this deadly cancer of poverty among our people. Couples for Christ, among others, and Tony Meloto's Gawad Kalinga are addressing this fundamental issue. Why can't our government concentrate on and target this dilemma more effectively? I know for a fact that the Philippines can eradicate poverty, if it wills it. It is not an impossible task. One does not have to be an Einstein or a rocket scientist to do the math. Only in succeeding in these first two national priority endeavors can we regain our honor and dignity as a people and as a nation in the eyes of the world. God bless the Filipinos. God bless the Philippines Philip S. Chua, M. D, (by email), Las Vegas , Nevada , Oct. 01, 2007 Tony, Mr. Chua is right in saying that our government's first priority should be to eradicate poverty, which indeed is not an impossible task. Gawad Kalinga is already privately moving towards that goal. The problem is that it is not compatible with the government's calendar. Our national leaders are more concerned with their own wealth generation. Sadly, I can't name a single senator or congressman who has the heart to genuinely serve the people and the country. All of them are eyeing the presidency. Regaining honor and dignity as a people and as a nation in the eyes of the world, as stated by Mr. Chua, is not part of their vision because of wrong focus...on themselves. Poor Filipinos. Regards, Yett Montalvan, (by email), Oct. 14, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww It makes me vomit that GMA is a super crook, a dishonest and corrupt liar,, but it is equally sickening that 95% of those who received bribes from her, pretend they didn�t receive anything or just keep silent. The entire system is rotten. The Philippines is just going down the drain.and they deserve it!!!! Every honest person should try to get out of here Fritz Jahns, (by email), Oct. 16, 2007 (Why don�t you start or join the exodus? ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. More Reactions to �On Rene Saguisag� Dear Tony. My goodness, you are indeed a powerful man. You mention Rene Saguisag and you only get a reasonable response - that is power. A few years ago, in a letter to the now semi-defunct Today, on a topic not directly related to him, I named him "Rambling Rene Saguisag". At that time, Atty. Saguisag was a regular columnist for that broadsheet. I was a regular reader of his articles, and found them of interest. However, interspersed with his subject, he continually wrote of his previous life so much, I accused him of having 'I' trouble. This tended to cause whatever point he was making to be diffused. I had written to the newspaper suggesting that his column be subject to editing in order to give it more form, but this suggestion was obviously not acted upon. After the letter was published, Rene, dear boy that he is, used not one, but three of his columns to personally attack me even giving my address. Because every one of those columns contained an average of 36 'I's" There appeared little need for me to respond. QED, as they say. Apart from that spat, I do miss reading his thoughts albeit being hard work to decipher. He is a good man and a true Filipino who cares. Sorry I upset you, sir. Alan C. Atkins. (Or ACA, but not the one involved), Oct. 14, 2007 (Pardon my ignorance, but what are these �Ts� that you were quarreling about? ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi ACA, For all the pained attempt of Rene Saguisag to justify himself, nothing can be more disgusting than be called the champion defender of a scoundrel. Cesar M. de los Reyes, (by email), Oct. 14, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr Abaya --- Rene Saguisag tries hard to justify his defense of Estrada, but I'm afraid it doesn't wash. He states that as a lawyer who's a human being & a Christian like himself, he's bound to defend scoundrels. By this he implies that Erap IS indeed a scoundrel. And he doesn't say if he's defending Erap pro bono or is being paid handsomely. I realize his point, as a lawyer, is that Erap is innocent until proven guilty. So we're down to the usual process which, in the Philippines, has been & will continue to be subject to the traditional lawyerly diversionary practices which inevitably drag on for years and are eventually forgotten (as in the cases against the Marcoses). Naturally, as a lawyer, he would harp on the "constitutional presumption of innocence" --- even in the face of published reports like the one by the Center for Investigative Journalism (edited by the sterling Sheila Coronel) & the redoubtable Amando Doronila's book "Inside Story" & other exposes which have demonstrated to laymen like myself a total absence of innocence on Erap's part. Bringing in the sainted Cory and the Pink Sisters, & pointing to his own humble circumstances, & mentioning GMA & her cohorts' political machinations still does not, in my view, justify defending a known rogue. Ideally, it seems to me that Christian lawyers should instead counsel scoundrels to admit their guilt and mend their ways --- not defend those known to have committed certain crimes and misdemeanours. Meanwhile Dinggol Divinagracia brings up a dingbat "bugas-bugas" theory which only obfuscates the issue. All of which displays the typical stance of folks who can't give straight answers to common sense matters. Isabel Escoda, (by email), Hong Kong , Oct. 15, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Rene Saguisag�s Letter to� The Senate The House of Representatives The Office of the Ombudsman The Commission on Audit The Department of Budget and Management The Department of the Interior and Local Government The Presidential Anti-Graft Commission The National Bureau of Investigation (fax) SABSABAN AT KABATAAN Friends: Please probe the possible criminal, administrative and civil liabilities of Governor Jonjon Jon Mendoza, Governor Ed Panlilio, Rep. Tony Cuenco and maybe, Rep. Rachel Arenas, for the sabsaban of October 11, 2007 in the Palace pigsty, if only to qualify them as state witnesses. The inquiry should look into possible legislation to arrest the rot in the Palace where President Cory Aquino, Joker Arroyo, Teddy Boy Locsin and I once worked with the likes of Medy Poblador, given the issues of law, policy and propriety involved. The usual suspect Thank you Fr. Ed for showing on national television the money you received. The name of the bank should be in the wrapper, which should help in tracing its source. The early candidate: Pagcor headed by a member of the Rotary Club, which does nothing about its spectacular membership, again dramatizing the putrefaction. Umaalingasaw na po. Criminal laws violated Sec. 7(d) of R.A. No. 6713 criminalizes the receipt of any gift in the course of a public official's or employee's duties. The penalty could be five years in jail and disqualification from public office. This echoes P.D. No. 46 which criminalizes the act of such official or employee of receiving any gift on any occasion, when it is given by reason of his official position. The same penalties are imposable. Fr. Ed & Co. did not get their shares - which should be seized now as Exhibits in a criminal prosecution - just because they are such nice guys. Hundreds gathered around the trough because they needed money for the supposedly "non-partisan" but now poisoned Barangay elections and to head off another impeachment proceeding, with huge appearance fees at stake, as in the past. Cardinal Sin If it is true that Cardinal Sin said he would take money from the devil himself to fund good projects - permit me to doubt he said anything like this in a sabsaban context - then I would like to know who the devil giving money away is and when the next pigging out is. What I remember was that in 1978 elections, he might have said "tanggapin ang pera, iboto ang kursunada," but of this I am not sure. Origination Clause The two Houses can probe whether the Palace can allocate and release so much without any enabling law. The House of Representa tives in particular is supposed to be where such a law should originate. I wonder if any of the new Congressmen would care to deliver a privilege speech seeking an investigation of the scandal on the basis of reviewing the compensation package of lawmakers, on which, more below. If the young Congressmen do not rebel at what is going on, and instead focus on recovering their campaign expenses, this country is truly doomed. They should realize how lucky they are to be where they are. They should ask about delicadeza and palabra de honor of the old days when the rich entered public life and left it poor. Ombudsman The Office of the Ombudsman can motu proprio act but it is busy feeding GMA lies such as a 75% conviction rate in cases it handles peddled in the last SONA. Not true, simply. You know when officials lie: their lips move. The Office is still studying what to do with Nani Perez who took a $2-M bribe right after Edsa 2, setting or confirming the ethical tone of the new order of fornicators, piranhas and barracu das. That was seven years ago and the Office is still conducting a preliminary probe. Hopeless, but maybe it can team up with The Firm after exercising their bragging rights in Erap's case but does nothing against Palace faves? Commission on Audit The Commission on Audit should study how it can do its job when humongous sums in bags in cash are freely given without any check, warrant, voucher or receipt, which until this administration, is not the way public funds are given. If only private funds are involved, then let the donors do it say in Pampanga, where jueteng money goes and accumulates, the home of another usual suspect, and where the Lapids allegedly stole a million a day of quarry money, but which won't interest the Office of the Ombudsman, which has eyes only for political adversaries. Secretaries Andaya and Puno Secretaries Rolly Andaya and Ronnie Puno should remind themselves of the fine ideals of their fathers and help decide whether there is still hope for their own children in this country reeking with filth. Maybe we can include here Secretary Toting who has a distin guished record in his own right but now spreads a weird gospel and says Cardinal Sin "reportedly" sanctioned what Secretary Ed Ermita disclaims any knowledge of and with an air of he could not care less. How cool they all are, the Arroyos, Serge Apostol, etc., wondering what the ruckus is all about. PAGC The PAGC should, if anywhere, start in fumigating the desecrat ed Palace grounds, now confused with a pigsty, where the Arroyos live and wallow; significantly, not a pip has been heard from the couple. The prelates The prelates of course may be awaiting their own appearance fees in envelops to be handed out by Ms. Fatima Valdez, as Assump tion joins UP, Ateneo and the PMA as having produced the most alums responsible for the mess we are in. Et tu, Medy, the niece reportedly of Cardinal Gaudencio Rosales who croons "let's forget the past"? NBI As to the NBI, with Deputy Director Pedro Bulaong there, well, never mind. The Palace What is the Palace going to do? Sinalaula po ang Malaca�ang. Toting Bunye makes use of the supposed statement of Cardinal Sin. Is it now all right to accept all sorts of money provided that the pretext is that there are Barangay projects to fund? Is this what is taught in Assumption, Georgetown , UP, PMA and the Ateneo? Is this how hopeless we are now? What is the limit, if any, of these undocumented disbursements in bags given ever so casually sans requests even? Loans Sec. 15 of Art. XI of the Constitution makes it hard for high public officials to secure loans from government. The Palace has found a perfect way to go around the interdiction. It is no defense to say that Cardinal Sin would say he could accept money from the devil to be used for good purposes. If the principle is accepted, what is to stop the Palace from giving whatever sums it may want to anyone in cash in bags and without any paper trail? The neophytes I look to the neophyte local officials and Congressmen. If they keep quiet on this one, excited at the prospect of recovering campaign expenses, and do not demand reforms, good night, as the Palace sanctifies the so-called Cardinal Sin Principle. It may not be too late for consideration in the case of President Erap, convicted for supposedly using jueteng money to form a foundation to help Muslim youths. The neophytes must speak for the day they see the truth and cease to speak is the day they begin to die. Let us bring back the delicadeza and palabra de honor of old. It is not enough to say that the devils in the Palace made me do it. It will soon be a week and nothing has been heard from the Arroyos who live in a soiled Palace bereft of any dignity left, reduced to a stinking sabsaban. The positive side As a Senator, all I took home was 14,612.50 a month. When we approved the budget, we had nothing of the success fees the Congressmen claim they expect yearly from Speaker Joe de Venecia. We need to craft a law saying each Congressman will earn 1-M a month to enable them to stay as sweet as they are without rushing to the sabsaban. We have to start somewhere in paying people above the level of corruption. We have to start laying down the economic foundation of honesty. Probing Governor Ed & Co. is a start. The incident should not be seen as totally negative. Our lawmakers are underpaid and therefore are vulnerable. At 14,612.50 monthly, I knew I could not make public life a career, not being the type to say, "ibig n'yong sabihin, may sweldo pa!?" But, if our lawmakers are paid better, along with our other high officials, we may yet attract the best and the brightest, as in Singapore . The young will join government not having to worry about finances, and be able to resist temptation, while we isolate the Very Important Pigs. Not raising pay will mean the creative gift-giving won't abate. No, I ask not for a revolution, but reform. If the young 'uns do not now condemn the ways of the trapos, we are lost. To think that a number of the barracudas today were used to Spartan lifestyles during the Marcos years, it pains to see how they validate Oscar Wilde's observation that everything can be resisted except temptation. The young 'uns must speak now for the day they see the truth and cease to speak is the day they begin to die. The cruelest lies are often told in silence. Two mistakes are irrevocable, speaking when it is time to be silent and being silent when it is time to speak. Useful clich�s. They can start by reexamining the charter of Pagcor, which was unconstitutionally extended last year when the extension of its life was secured by votes not meeting the constitutional requirement on tax exemption (by a vote of "a majority of all the Members of the Congress," Const., Art. VI, Sec. 28[4]). But, does anybody still care for the Constitution, law, policy and propriety? Sincerely, R.A.V. Saguisag, (by email), Oct. 16, 2007 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |