Summary: on this homepage you may find extended
abstracts (and in some cases full texts, too)
of writings about civilizations
(past - major civilizations of world history,
their evolutionary trends, future - transition
from a "planet based technical civilization"
to a "space based technical civilization").
There is an abstract of a computer related paper, too.
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Hello,
I'm an electrical engineer (specialized in computers), but like
to think about other things, too, especially history and "future
history" (space research, "extraterrestrial intelligence" etc.).
Here you can find short descriptions of the essays which I wrote
in the last 15 years and thought to be worth publishing (or at
least trying). I hope these texts will inspire others to think
about these things (or even to write about them).
Mr. Csaba KECSKES, Budapest, Hungary
E-mail:
[email protected]
The "copyright notices" on my pages indicate that if
you want to use these texts for profit-making purposes
then you should ask my permission before doing so. Even
if you use them for non-profit purposes please adhere
to the followings:
- quote them correctly
- indicate properly that I am the author (i.e. do not
remove the "copyright notice")
- display the URL ("Internet address") of the page, too
TITLE:
Evolution and Detectability of Advanced Civilisations
ABSTRACT:
In a previous paper the author identified four evolutionary
levels of technical civilisations (planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers,
interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers).
This classification scheme is extended here with six new levels
on the basis of travelling abilities. The new levels are the
following: intergalactic travellers, faster-than-light travellers,
parallel universe travellers (with four sub-levels within this
category). The detectability of the civilisations is analysed and
it is connected to the perspectives of the SETI.
PUBLICATION HISTORY:
Was sent (in 2009) to the Journal of the
British Interplanetary Society, no response yet.
FULL TEXT:
Not available here (requirement of the Journal of
the British Interplanetary Society).
TITLE:
Hegemony Cycles in the Antiquity?
ABSTRACT:
According to the theory of "hegemony cycles" (which is
popular in modern political science) the European
history from 1500 CE can be described as a succession of
hegemonic powers. An important attribute of the
"hegemon" that it has an outstanding naval
capability compared to the other great powers.
Antique historians described some
great powers of their times as "thalassocracies"
therefore it can be asked whether there were
similar hegemony cycles in the European Antiquity.
It is impossible to make long-term naval capability
statistics about the ancient powers,
but with an other method (comparing the
colonization efforts of the great powers)
it is also possible to compare the various
Antique and Modern powers with their contemporaries.
With this method it can be shown that probably
there were hegemony cycles in the Antique
history of the Mediterranean region.
PUBLICATION HISTORY:
Was sent to the Comparative Civilizations Review in 2007,
they refused it in 2009.
FULL TEXT:
Available HERE .
REFERENCES:
See at the end of the full text.
TITLE:
Extrapolating the Trends of the Most Significant Patterns
of World History
ABSTRACT:
The possibility of the very protracted existence of
civilizations is examined and in the case of the largest ones
(European, Middle Eastern, East Asian, South Asian, Sub-Saharan
African, Central Asian Nomad) it is found to be probable. The long-
term evolutionary stages of these civilizations are listed, in
the case of the European civilization the usual historical
periodization (Neolithic, Antiquity, Medium Age, Modern Age) is
acceptable, but in the case of the others a different
periodization (Neolithic, Antiquity, Age of Expansion) seems
to be more satisfactory. A "halving rule of the ages" is found
(the duration of an age is half of the duration of the previous
one). The theory of the "periodical (European) world wars" is
examined, recent results are surveyed. The lifetimes of the
great empires (without and with successor states) are
determined, extrapolations are made for the "modern empires".
The large conflict zones (shatterbelts: East-central Europe,
Middle East, East Asia, South-east Asia, South Asia, Sub-
Saharan Africa, Middle America) are surveyed, the hypothesis of
the "periodical crisis sequences" is examined.
PUBLICATION HISTORY:
A very early version of this paper, discussing only the trends of
European history, was published (in a rather abridged form)
as "Correspondence" in the History Review (No. 18, March 1994,
Supplement, p.6, received in 1988).
An abridged version was published in the Comparative Civilizations
Review (Spring 2006 issue, unfortunately my name was misprinted
as "Csaba S. Kecsces" instead of the correct "Csaba Kecskes").
The full version of the paper was kept here with the permission
of a CCR Editor (Dr. L. Farhat-Holzman).
FULL TEXT:
Available HERE .
REFERENCES:
See at the end of the full text.
NOTE 1:
Most of such "civilizational" theories were created by
"unqualified persons" (i.e. NOT professional historians)
therefore my theory is not necessarily worse (or better)
than the others. But my theory lead to such conclusions
which indicate that in the "not very far" future certain
historical events will occur and these will yield quite
significant changes. These events and changes are the
followings:
-
- in the "East-central European shatterbelt" a major
crisis will occur in the 2004-2008 interval
-
- in the 2015-2025 interval a great war will occur,
greater than the WWII; the outbreak of this war may
be triggered by another crisis in East-central Europe
-
- Russia will be an important participant of this war
(all the "civilizationally European" great powers will
be involved), i.e. Russia will go through a "sudden rise"
process before the war (like Germany before the WWII or
France after the outbreak of the great revolution)
-
- the war will destroy the long-distance trade connections,
after it the "civilizationally European" regions of the world
will be in a state similar to the early Medium Age (autarky)
-
- after the war the most important "civilizationally European"
great power will be Brazil (the most probable "lucky outsider"),
Muslim powers will strengthen their position and expand
(but the other non-European great powers probably will not
start a major expansion)
If these developments really occur then my theory can be
considered as proven. As far as I'm informed, the other
"civilizational" theories did not produce such specific
conclusions, i.e. the acceptance of those theories is rather
a matter of taste. At least from this viewpoint my theory
is better.
Predicting a great war seems to be very
unfortunate, but the followings must be noted:
-
- highly respected professionals also predict the occurence
of a great war approximately in the same time, although
they are less specific about the details
(see the books of J.Goldstein and G.Modelski)
-
- my theory shows a possibility to avoid this war (we need
"localization", not "globalization"), but I'm afraid that
there is no power on the Earth which could enforce it
NOTE 2:
As far as I'm informed, students in the "civilizationally European"
countries usually learn "national history" and "world history"
separately. This is not very problematic in the Americas (those
countries have rather short "national" histories), but in Europe
the typical "national" and "world" history narratives are not
quite compatible. The basic stance of a typical European
national history is that the nation
(or some "ethnic groups" similar to it) exists
since the Antiquity (or even earlier times) and the
nation (or at least the better part of it) continuosly
works and fights for the country (the "ancient homeland").
Their success is variable, i.e. the country has it's "ups"
and "downs" but the basic idea is the continuity.
I think that the "typical" national histories of the great
Asian and Middle Eastern countries share this basic idea.
A typical (old-fashioned) world history is a history of the
great powers (while they are great powers) and their interactions
but in it's basic form it is somewhat arbitrary (those great
powers seem to appear and disappear rather randomly). If one uses
the traditional "civilizationist" approach in order to add
some coherency then the "continuity" problem appears immediately:
why those civilizations appear and disappear while the nations
exist continuously?
There is a more modern method, the
"world-systemist": in this case the whole world history
appears as a continuous globalization process creating
a "world system" (or "global civilization"). The countries
take different places in the "world system" (centre,
semi-periphery, periphery) but these places are not static
(sometimes a new centre appears in a previous semi-periphery,
an old centre becomes periphery etc.).
From the viewpoint of the "continuity" problem this is a
satisfactory solution, but it has an other problem, the
"differences". If the whole world history is a continuous
globalization process then why all those "nationalistic"
differences still exists? And why they are so important?
Why we have "religious" wars and near-war situations even
in Europe (not only on the Balkans, but on the British
islands, too), even at the end of the 20th century?
After so many globalization!
My theory is certainly not perfect, but I hope that at
least from the viewpoint of these two major problems
it is satisfactory. An ideal world history would
be a synthesis of all the national histories (after
eliminating the "palliations" from them, and applying
appropriate weighting), but the creation of such a synthesis
would certainly require the work of a professional
historian (or rather a group of them).
TITLE:
Gondolatok a Fermi paradoxonrol
(Thoughts about the Fermi paradox)
ABSTRACT:
In Hungarian: A foldonkivuliek letevel kapcsolatos altalanos allaspont
valtozasai (az urhajozas elotti korszak, a kezdeti optimista
idoszak, a pesszimista allaspont ternyerese). A Fermi paradoxon,
azaz a "miert nem talalkozunk veluk" kerdes. Az ezt megvalaszolo
hipotezisek kategoriai: "(meg) nem ertek ide",
"nem ide jonnek", "mar itt vannak (de nem lathatoak)".
A fontosabb hipotezisek ismertetese.
A "foldonkivuli eredetu targyak keresesenek" (SETA) lehetosegei.
In English: The common viewpoint about
the extraterrestrial intelligent beings,
it's changes during human history: before the space age,
early optimism, spreading of pessimism. The Fermi paradox
ie. the "why we don't meet them" question. Categories of the
typical hypotheses: "they didn't arrive (yet)",
"they don't come here", "they have arrived (but we don't see them)".
Detailed description of the most important hypotheses.
Possibilities of the SETA ("search for extraterrestrial artifacts").
In the appendix several scenarios are described which may
lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilization.
It is discussed how the development of the necessary space
technologies can be helped: one must choose such development paths
which yield not only space-related but important terrestrial
results, too (eg. direct production of foodstuffs from arbitrary
biomass).
PUBLICATION HISTORY:
Published (in Hungarian) in the "Magyar Bolygokutatas"
("Planetary Research in Hungary", a monthly electronic
journal), June 2002.
FULL TEXT:
Available on my Hungarian web site,
HERE .
TITLE:
Scenarios which may Lead to the Rise of an
Asteroid Based Technical Civilisation
ABSTRACT:
In a previous paper the author described a hypothetical
development path of technical civilisations
which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid
dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar
space dwellers. In this paper several scenarios are
described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-
based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may
take place, certain space technologies must
be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary
forms): closed-cycle biological life support
systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion
systems. After mastering these
technologies, certain events may provide the necessary
financial means and social impetus for the
foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the
first scenario, a rich minority group becomes
persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second
scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists
and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of
asteroid-based colonies to show off their
empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the
third scenario the basic situation is similar to
the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just
occupied by the colonists. With several
decades of hard work an asteroid can be turned into a
kinetic energy weapon which can provide the
same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present
superpower. In the fourth scenario some
military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and
utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This
would be a quite economical solution because a "military
asteroid" already contains most of the
important components of an SPS (large solar collector
arrays, power distribution devices, orbit
modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large
microwave transmitter.
PUBLICATION HISTORY:
Published in the Acta Astronautica,
Vol 50, No 9, pp. 569-577, June 2002
(received January 2000, revised version received April 2001).
FULL TEXT:
Not available here (copyright of the Elsevier Ltd.).
REFERENCES:
You can find the titles of some related papers and books
HERE .
NOTE 1:
Some reviewers deeply dislike the "militaristic" concepts
discussed in this writing, but in many high-tech breakthroughs
of the 20th century massive military involvement (especially
financial and political support) was crucial, therefore I think
that the next major step in space development (creating
self-sufficient settlements in space)
will not possible without it.
It is true that if someone could invent a cheap (really
cheap - approximately at the price level of the present
intercontinental airflights) Earth-to-orbit (and back)
transportation method then things may happen differently.
But many excellent development teams have tried it since
the 1960s and none of them succeeded in it. Even if
a cheap Earth-to-orbit transfer method appears in the
near future, it will make every kind of space activity
cheaper, i.e. military projects also will be possible
at lower price levels. But at least in this case the
civilian projects will be much more numerous and the
involvement of the international organizations much
less dependent on the superpowers, i.e. international
regulations and bans could be enforced more easily.
TITLE:
The Possibility of Finding Traces of Extraterrestrial Intelligence
on Asteroids
ABSTRACT:
To explain the lack of the extraterrestrial radio signals and the
Fermi paradox, a dual development path is described for the technical
civilisations originating on Earth-like planets. One part of the
civilisation remains on the planet and its
technological level starts to decay after
a time (exhaustion of resources etc.).
The other part of the civilisation reaches the
technological level of the interstellar spaceflight, but
those who leave on interstellar spaceships never return
to any planet because this would
mean to return to a lower level of technology
(i.e. a lower standard of living).
It is suggested that such self-sufficient
interstellar spaceships may use
near-Earth asteroids as a resource base for self-repairing (or
self-replicating) purposes. It is explained why such
visits in the solar system are rare events
which do not last for long. The possibility of
detecting the traces of such activities is discussed.
PUBLICATION HISTORY:
Published in The Journal of the British Interplanetary Society,
Vol 51, pp. 175-179, May 1998 (received 1996).
FULL TEXT:
Not available here (copyright of the J.B.I.S.).
In order to highlight the basic concept of the paper,
HERE
you can find a table describing the supposed
development stages of technical civilizations
(abridged and modified version of
"Table 2" from the original paper).
REFERENCES:
You can find the titles of some related papers and books
HERE .
NOTE 1:
Since the publication of this paper I learned that
the spectra of some type E
asteroids indicates the presence of silicon in elementary form.
It could be the waste product of a "space technology" process
(pyrolysis, see the published paper),
therefore a type E asteroid would be a good candidate for a
dual-purpose (asteroid research +
"search for extraterrestrial artifacts") space mission.
TITLE:
A Simple Method for Building up Large Computer Systems
from Small Computers
ABSTRACT:
Today's minicomputer systems are usually built with local networks.
But a local network needs complicated hardware devices and sometimes
the network accesses are rather slow. In this paper some simple
hardware devices are described which make it possible to connect a
disc unit to many CPUs. Minicomputers equipped with such devices can
be connected together without any additional hardware or software,
and the resulting system will behave like one large computer.
Some related software problems are discussed, too.
PUBLICATION HISTORY:
Published in The Computer Journal, Vol 30, No 4, 1987
(received October 1985, revised May 1986).
FULL TEXT:
Not available here (copyright of the C.J., England, UK).
In order to illustrate the concept,
HERE
you can find a drawing (not published in the original paper).
REFERENCES:
You can find the titles of some
related papers and books
HERE .
Copyright (c) 1985-2002 Mr. Csaba KECSKES, Budapest, Hungary