Fahd bin Abdul Aziz
Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz
Naef Bin Abdul Aziz
Salman Bin Abdul Aziz
Ahmad Bin Abdul Aziz
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SAUDI ARABIA : in the Year 2037, CACSA,
December 30, 1996
One of the top agenda's items for world organizations, the
United nations, and the G7 nations in the twentieth century is to find
alternative economical energy sources that would put a stop to pollution
control the quality of air we breathe. Work is advancing in this field in
a feverish rapid pace and scientists around the world are predicting
solutions in place within forty to fifty years.
Solutions in place means that the technology is not only available but
also producing the expected results and totally replacing oil as the only
cheap source of energy. The prospect for this taking shape and soon taking
place must make countries who totally depend on the export of oil as their
only source of income redirect their policies and plan to deal with this
technology in the appropriate fashion.
Attention to this matter has already started to become a topic of
discussion in the energy circles of affected countries. Some countries
have already implemented national goals and tasks to find alternative
incomes. Countries such as United Arab Emirates have discovered that trade
and business are keys to dependence on oil. The country's laws have
changed and are changing constantly to adapt to more challenging demands
by the business community at large. It is already considered that Dubai is
the Hong Kong of the Middle East. When oil runs out or is no longer
needed, Dubai and Abu Dhabi will survive in this new world that does not
need oil anymore.
What is happening in Saudi Arabia and what is the country doing about
these new challenges is what interests us here.
Up to now, Saudi Arabia with an absolute monarchy and a constitution that
has just been implemented giving rise to a new parliamentary puppet system
is no where near even understanding the potential threats of the Renewable
Energy Sources. The country is still mired in a feudal system that rewards
the richest individual not on the basis of his skills as a provider and a
taker from the economy of the country but rather as a corrupt person who
has reached his riches through understanding the flows of the system and
taking advantage of those flaws. Saudi Arabia has many billionaires more
so than usual considering it is a country that has a per capita income of
$4,000 a year. These billionaires got rich mostly by being the wrong
people doing the wrong thing at the right time. The wrong people because
the majority of them would never survive in a free economy system such as
found in the US or England. The wrong thing because most likely it is
based on paying commissions rather than building something useful and
making a profit from it. The right time because of the oil boom that has
taken place during the middle seventies.
Saudi Arabia today is very far from preparing for the inevitable coming of
new energy sources that will diminish its importance and security in the
middle of the next century. The government has not even started embarking
on this journey. Everyone is busy enriching themselves and the royal
family cares about short term results to the detriment of any long term
strategy. Their number one preoccupation is their security, their number
two preoccupation is amassing a vast wealth that will bring about their
security, and their third preoccupation is Saudi Arabia. We have seen
Saudi Arabia under their rule falter and almost disintegrate economically
because of their priority. Instead of saving $40 billion, they are
spending $40 billion on arms from England that most likely will be
obsolete and inoperable given the culture of the personnel and the harsh
weather the country enjoys. What is the logical reason to spend that
money. It is very simple. Saudi Arabia is buying protection and elongating
their rule by promising long term contracts to defense companies who
through their influence assure the ruling family continuance hold onto
power. In the process, secret bank accounts are opened constantly with
millions being deposited for those American and British executives who,
prior to retiring, play lobbyists for the al-Saud family.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO SAUDI ARABIA AFTER 2037 ?
The most compelling of any scenario is the following if Saudi Arabia does
not reform, re-write its rules and regulations to open the society, and
embarks on a new way of doing business where corruption is as severely
punished as murder. Standing up to corruption does not mean changing the
Islamic culture of the country nor its symbolic importance as the Guardian
of the Two Holy Mosques, something that al-Saud have played against the
background of the noise expressed by dissident groups such as CACSA and
reformists that see a great deal of progress in a more open Saudi Arabia.
An open Saudi Arabia provides accountability which has been resisted by
al-Saud for fear of losing control over their corrupt ways and habits.
In the year 2037, oil is very important as a regional weapon rather than
an international one. All the countries of the Middle East will have to
rely on oil while the rest of the developed countries will have developed
alternatives that are cheaper and cleaner than oil.
The Eastern Province
The Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia will become a bastion of entrepreneurship
controlled by Shiite Muslims who will build that area the way Lebanese
Shiite built West Africa. Their allegiance will be to Iran with milder
political jostling and attitudes that are as important to developed
nations as Ethiopia is today. They will refuse to deal with Riyadh or the
Wahabbists in any political framework.
The Najd Province
Riyadh will die. The high costs of maintenance and the low income
experienced by lack of oil exports will kill that city which has no water
sources to keep it alive. The Wahabbists will become outcasts because of
the mismanagement of the country by al-Saud and shall remain in that area
living in tents the way they were used to. The wealthy al-Saud clan will
be disbursed all over the world and live off their pilfering during the
twentieth century. The poorer ones will either stay or go off to poorer
countries.
The Western Province
The Western Province in Saudi Arabia will fall back into the hands of the
Hashemites who will govern it with greater equality and respect than
al-Saud ever had. Land around Makkah will be donated to religious
charitable organizations and used to service Islam and God rather than
leave it as palaces for al-Saud. Jeddah will become a great merchant city
with banking and a trade center serving Africa and the Levant. It will
work with Yemen to create a trading powerful corridor essential to the
whole region. The whole country will shrink in size and importance.
Allegiances will follow historical ties. An anti Abdul Aziz syndrome that
will see that Saudi Arabia is truncated and dispersed into oblivion. |
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