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CLINTON's Priorities and State of Mind |
SULTAN's Priorities and State of Mind |
| Clinton had a siege
mentality during that day as he defended allegations of selling the
Lincoln Room. His state of mind was not crystal clear. |
Sultan was concerned about any terrorist event prior
to the meeting that could torpedo his efforts to show his profile. The US
Embassy in Saudi Arabia issued stern statements of possible imminent
terrorist activities. |
| Clinton was briefed by
National Security and had a conversation with FBI Director Freeh prior to
the meeting. Their main concern remained cooperation on the investigation. |
Sultan came prepared to respond to the cooperation
issue. His scheme is simple: Show that the Sudeiris and specifically
himself are fully cooperating with the investigation undercutting any
extraneous efforts by Abdullah to replace any of the Sudeiris once he is
in power. The flow of information to the Americans against security
guarantees for the Sudeiris. |
| Clinton expressed concern
over the security of US personnel in Saudi Arabia. |
Sultan emphasized the need to remove the majority of
this force if the United States acted to remove once and for all the
specter of Saddam Hussein. Sultan threw the ball back in Clinton's court
hoping to obtain a National Security pledge of some sort from the chief
himself. |
| Clinton vaguely committed
to the security of Saudi Arabia, a language often used in the past by even
the desk officer of the country of Saudi Arabia at the State Department. |
Sultan re-emphasized the Saudi commitment to the
safety of US personnel. He then jumped on the issue of oil prices and
confirmed that higher oil prices are helping Saudi Arabia maintain
economic balance and the opportunities to re-circulate the Dollars again
to insure everyone's security (referring to future armaments purchases). |
| Clinton did not bite but
simply confirmed the US commitment to peace in the region and security for
its allies. He then asked Sultan's help in coming forward with peace
initiatives to help in the Middle East peace process. |
Sultan replied that Saudi Arabia is and has already
committed to peace in the region but needed more time to become public
with any statements that could bring Syria and Israel closer. Sultan then
jumped on the security argument that our neighbors are poisoning and
dismantling peace and that the United States should help in creating
balance in the Gulf as well. |
| Clinton jokingly said that
we see eye to eye the issue of your neighbors but we cannot bomb anyone
anymore. We have to live with these thorny problems and work hard at the
ones we can resolve (i.e. peace with Israel). |
Sultan dodged the issue and suggested to Clinton that
they both issue a statement that pulverizes the notion that Saudi Arabia
is not stable. He said that conception of stability is important to
stability to which Clinton agreed. |
| Clinton left the meeting to
address more important issues. |
Sultan left the meeting feeling as one diplomat puts
it :"Like he just delivered a baby" |
CACSA's Opinion
What does all this mean? How successful Sultan's trip is up-to-date?
What is in store for him in the next few days as he meets with the Defense and
State departments?
Sultan's aim is to plant seed of accord and to secure direct contacts with an
administration that will be here for at least 4 more years. Fahd is unlikely to
last that long and building a bridge during Abdullah's tenure is important to
Sultan not only for his personal sake but also for the sake of the Sudeiris who
intend to control the process of leading Saudi Arabia once and for all after
Abdullah. All of these meetings will open channels of communications that could
prove to be extremely beneficial to Sultan.
Beyond that, Sultan wants to show goodwill by truly delivering the information
that FBI Freeh wants. The FBI is not stupid and when they asked for certain
information, they were on the right trail to really resolving the issue of who
did it. When Osama bin Laden threatened American troops on BBC last week, the
State Department immediately issued a warning. As far as the State Department
and the FBI are concerned, the trail leads to Osama and the Afghan Mujaheddin
and not the Iranians as earlier claimed by Naef bin Abdul Aziz. Now that Naef
and Sultan know they cannot fool the FBI, Sultan came here to show and promise
cooperation. Nothing is given free, everything is exchanged.
As far as the 100 F16-s, Saudi Arabia was not ready for Natanyahu's criticism
nor the AIPAC possible lobbying against such a sale. They put off the sale until
they resolve their problem with Natanyahu through secret meetings that will
start taking place at the end of Sultan's trip. Sultan will more than likely
send either Bandar or Ali bin Mussallam to work out a solution. CACSA expects a
resolution of this issue within 4-5 weeks, after which any announcement by
Bandar will be met with praise from all parties. What Saudi Arabia has to give
up in return? Less enthusiasm for Syria, controlled use of these planes,
cooperation on the Qatar-Israel gas project, and hands-off on new Israeli-Yemeni
relationships. In addition, a guaranteed sale of the new Stealth F-22 to Israel.
Was this trip successful to Sultan? We still have to see how he gets greeted by
a republican defense secretary and how tough Albright will be on issues of human
rights and democracy. Will she dare or will she fold under pressure from the
National Security? Will Bandar's offensive remarks get him through the door or
will he have to struggle as he always seem to with his big mouth?
AS CACSA's newsletter becomes a household name in the political circles of
Washington, some voices will murmur and discuss the stability of Saudi Arabia.
Bandar has an army of people ready to spring to action led by Adel Jubair in
case CACSA becomes an issue in Washington which will certainly become as our
resistance to this expired family becomes more enduring and our words become
more logical.
