2007 Summer Blockbuster Preview

Words: Rich
Box office numbers: Box Office Mojo

In this feature: Spider-Man 3 | Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End | Ocean's Thirteen | Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer | Shrek the Third | Die Hard 4.0 | Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix | Transformers | The Simpsons Movie | Evan Almighty | The Bourne Ultimatum | Ratatouille

This year's summer season seems more jam-packed with huge, potentially record-breaking blockbusters than ever before. Here I'll run through the main ones in order of UK release date, giving my thoughts on how well I think each film will do and how much I'm personally looking forward to them. (Note: most box office figures mentioned are US ones unless stated otherwise.)


Spider-Man 3
UK/US: 4 May

Summary: Continuing from Spider-Man 2, Peter Parker proposes to Mary Jane, but now that Harry Osborn knows that Parker is Spider-Man, he's out for revenge. The film looks set to be darker than the first two, with Spidey possibly turning bad. Also in the mix are Sandman and, eventually, Venom, leading to what could be a pretty explosive bust-up.
Anticipation: As I've mentioned before, I'm certainly looking forward to the third Spidey film, but the trailers leave me slightly cold. They look exciting and full of action but there's nothing that really makes me feel like I can't wait.
Pedigree: The first film in the franchise set an opening weekend record of $114 million in 2002, which was only beaten last year. It went on to make an extremely impressive $400 million. The sequel couldn't quite match it, but was still a massive hit with $373 million.
Prediction: Being first out of the gate among the big hitters should help Spidey to at first but it could see big drops in the following weeks when Shrek 3 (in the US) and Pirates 3 emerge. I'm sure there's still a big audience for the film but I can't see it equalling the series' earlier totals.


Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
UK: 24 May, US: 25 May

Summary: Will, Elizabeth and co have to follow (spoiler for POTC2!) the returning Captain Barbossa to "the ends of the Earth" in order to save Jack Sparrow from the bowels of the Kraken. Cue loads of swordfighting and, especially, massive sea battles between an assembled pirate fleet and the East India Trading Company.
Anticipation: I didn't find that the recently released trailer had the same wow factor as the trailer for Dead Man's Chest, but it still looked like a lot of fun. The fact that the story isn't based on previously existing source material makes it more unpredictable and enticing. One not to miss.
Pedigree: Pirates seems the franchise to beat at the moment, with the second instalment holding the opening weekend record ($135 million, beating Spider-Man) and going on to make $423 million, and over $1 billion worldwide (only the third film to do so). Most people agree that POTC2 didn't live up to the original, but it still generally went down well.
Prediction: With a gap of less than a year since the last POTC, the public may not be gagging for it quite yet, but I still see it being huge. I doubt it'll beat the records of Dead Man's Chest but it may well come close, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this sitting at the top of the heap at the end of the summer.


Ocean's Thirteen
UK/US: 8 June

Summary: Clooney's boys return to Vegas (that's boys, so no Julia Roberts or Catherine Zeta-Jones) to get up to more heisty hi-jinks. Al Pacino is the target this time.
Anticipation: I really didn't like Ocean's Twelve, but I really did like Ocean's Eleven, which I thought was possibly one of the best remakes ever. They seem to have learned from the failings of Twelve and are returning to similar territory to the first one. Pacino's addition to the cast is surely no bad thing either.
Pedigree: It's impossible to find a series with more star power. Eleven was a big hit, making $450 million worldwide. Twelve made almost $100m less, for good reason. Director Steven Soderbergh hasn't had a hit for a while.
Prediction: It will have a sizeable, $40+ million opening whatever the film is like, but if it's actually good (and signs are positive) it could push towards the takings of the first one.


Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
UK/US: 15 June

Summary: Everyone's favourite foursome (OK, maybe not everyone's) return, this time doing battle with the Silver Surfer, who heralds the coming of the planet-eating super-being Galactus. Dr. Doom also comes back somehow to cause further irritation to the good guys.
Anticipation: I liked the first movie because it took me back to my childhood, when I watched the Christopher Reeve Superman movies for hours on end. I did think it was walking a fine line though between entertaining and crap, delving dangerously close to the latter in the extreme sports scenes. Going by the trailer this instalment looks pretty similar in tone, but hopefully the increased budget will lead to more frequent and intense action scenes this time. Disappointingly, it sounds like Ben Grimm, AKA The Thing, will have less to in this chapter, and Michael Chiklis' performance was one of the best things about the first one.
Pedigree: The first FF sent most comic fans into an uproar with its family-friendly tone, in a time when dark and brooding is the 'in thing' for a superhero movie. Nevertheless, it was quite successful, with a $50 million opening and $150m overall in the US.
Prediction: Many comic fans who hated the first one may well be enticed back to see this one due to the appearance of the Surfer and (possibly) Galactus, in the hope that the makers have learned from their 'mistakes' in the first one. I can see FF2 reaping similar box office totals, although there's potential for more if the general consensus is positive this time.


Shrek the Third
UK: 29 June, US: 18 May

Summary: The King of Far Far Away is taken ill and Shrek is looked to as his successor. The big green ogre doesn't want the responsibility though and sets off to find the young yet-to-be-King Arthur, who sounds a lot like Justin Timberlake.
Anticipation: I'm not at boiling point with this one but thought the trailer had some really funny moments. Plus the fact that Shrek 2 contains to me one of the funniest sequences in any film ever (when the giant gingerbread man, Mongo, attacks the castle) means that I've got some high hopes.
Pedigree: Shrek 2 was an absolutely gargantuan hit and is the third highest grossing film of all time in the US. The constant pop culture references mean it's not as big as some other franchises outside of the States, but it's still hugely popular. The difference here is that the creative team from the first two films, including the director, have not returned, so it may not live up to the previous films.
Prediction: It's undoubtedly going to be massive, but just how massive is the question. Family films tend to make loads of money at the moment but CGI animation has lost its novelty factor somewhat. I say $300-$400 million.


Die Hard 4.0 (AKA Live Free or Die Hard)
UK: 6 July, US: 29 June

Summary: It's been 12 years since Die Hard: With a Vengeance, and after swearing he'd never make another action movie, Bruce Willis is back where he should be. The plot is something about computer terrorism, and going by the trailer features a lot of car chases and stuff blowing up, like the Capitol Building in Washington DC.
Anticipation: Despite the brainlessness of it all, I thought the trailer made the film look pretty entertaining. Plus it'll be nice to see the old Bruce again. The internet angle seems a bit iffy to me but I'm willing to give it a shot.
Pedigree: The three previous Die Hard movies were pretty consistent performers, all making around $100 million in the US. The director of this new one is Len Wiseman, he of Underworld fame. Which wasn't very good.
Prediction: Despite the budget, Bruce Willis' star power is not what it once was and the plain old action movie just doesn't seem to bring in huge crowds these days, apart from a few well-received exceptions (the Bourne films, Casino Royale). It should break the $100 million barrier but I don't see it sailing past it. Mission: Impossible III made less than $150m so I doubt this can achieve that either. Opening opposite Ratatouille in the US may hurt it too, although they're going for different audiences.


Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
UK/US: 13 July

Summary: Something about teenage wizards with no doubt some adolescent angst thrown in.
Anticipation: Personally, none. I've only seen the most recent instalment, Goblet of Fire, and felt a bit lost.
Pedigree: Well, it's the fifth film in the franchise and many fans seem to agree that they're getting better with each film, although plenty argue Prisoner of Azkaban (the third one) is the best. The director this time round is relative newcomer David Yates.
Prediction: The Potter flicks tend to open really big and fall off quite sharply, particularly in the States. A large proportion of their takings are made outside North America, though. None of the sequels have matched the first film's gross and I doubt this will, but the release of the final (seventh) book at around the same time should create plenty of crossover interest. May hit $850+ million worldwide, but the last time a HP film opened in summer (Azkaban) it saw the series' lowest grosses.


Transformers
UK: 27 July, US: 6 July

Summary: A group of benevolent robots, the Autobots, come to save the world from a group of evil robots, the Decepticons. Impressive CGI, and of course loads of hyperactive editing, ensues.
Anticipation: I never watched the original cartoon so the film doesn't bring back memories for me. Nevertheless it looks like it could be enjoyable enough, and there certainly should be some great effects from the ILM bods. I actually really liked Bay's last film, The Island, and thought it was highly underrated.
Pedigree: Michael Bay had a string of hits working with Jerry Bruckheimer (The Rock, Armageddon, Pearl Harbor - yes, it made money) but his first separate venture brought the first commercial failure of his career, The Island. Ironically, The Island was one of the better reviewed films he's made. Basically, Bay needs a hit, and helping him in the producing corner is a certain Steven Spielberg.
Prediction: There's always at least one blockbuster per summer that flops, and to me this has the highest potential this year. The Transformers brand is fairly well known but I'm not sure it's got a huge fanbase. Moderate takings at best.


The Simpsons Movie
UK/US: 27 July

Summary: The plot is under wraps, but seems to involve another nefarious scheme by Mr. Burns and Homer going on a quest of some sort. Really original, then.
Anticipation: I liked the look of the trailer, and am really curious to see if they can succeed in making a feature-length version of the TV show. I have a feeling it may go a bit too far down the "let's chuck absolutely everything in" road, though.
Pedigree: You don't get to be the longest-running sitcom in US TV history for no reason. The quality has lessened in recent years, but that was inevitable after the highs of earlier seasons. Many of the writers of the classic episodes have been brought back for this too, which bodes well.
Prediction: A hard one to predict, because there's no real precedent for it. It certainly won't flop though. Maybe $200 million or more? I could be way off.


Evan Almighty
UK: 3 August, US: 22 June

Summary: The sequel to 2003's Bruce Almighty sees Steve Carell take the lead role this time. God (Morgan Freeman) gives him a task to build an ark to save the world's animals from a forthcoming flood. Must be déjà vu.
Anticipation: Steve Carell is great, so his presence in the lead (he had a memorable bit part in the original) is a definite bonus. I didn't think the first one was that great, so this stands the chance of actually being better.
Pedigree: Bruce Almighty made a heap, but that was probably down to Carrey's drawing power. Carell is certainly popular though, with The 40 Year Old Virgin his biggest role to date.
Prediction: It has a tough job to make a profit, as its $200 million-plus pricetag makes it the most expensive comedy ever. I hope for Carell's sake that it's successful, but I can't see it matching Bruce.


The Bourne Ultimatum
UK: 17 August, US: 3 August

Summary: The concluding part of the Bourne trilogy sees amnesiac assassin Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) continue his search for answers, travelling extensively in the process.
Anticipation: The first two were excellent, tense thrillers and justifiably made a mint (relative to the genre). Damon is compelling and perfectly cast as the ambiguous central figure. The fact that Paul Greengrass is back in the director's chair again after The Bourne Supremacy is another great asset. A must see.
Pedigree: The Bourne Identity made an impressive $121m, and Supremacy flew past that with $176m. Weirdly, they're not as popular outside the US, which is strange because they have a pretty European flavour.
Prediction: I think there's a lot of anticipation to see how it all ends (the previous two films have been rather light on actual explanations). Could match or surpass Supremacy, particularly if it manages to sustain the level of quality.


Ratatouille
UK: 5 October, US: 29 June

Summary: A young rat living in Paris dreams of becoming a chef. Through an unlikely series of events he teams up with a young human chef and together they become a culinary dream team. Wow, I could make a career out of writing these synopses.
Anticipation: It's not a summer blockbuster over here, but it's out in June in the US so it's on this list. The trailers look more appealing than Cars' did, but the production has had a few problems including a change of director. Still, it's Pixar, so I'm sold.
Pedigree: Pixar have a track record that is second to none, with no failures to speak of and a number of absolute classics. The director is Brad Bird, who made the superb The Incredibles, but this film isn't his brainchild unlike that one.
Prediction: Any Pixar film is big, although Cars was a minor one by their standards. I don't think Ratatouille will reach the heights of Finding Nemo or The Incredibles but a mid-$200 million take seems likely.


So there you have it, twelve massive (or at least massively budgeted) films which could well comprise the highest-grossing summer ever. Cynics might complain about the number of sequels (nine out of the twelve) but, importantly, they are mostly sequels that people actually really want. In particular it looks like it'll be the summer of Part 3s, with five trilogy-concluders being released. The big battle is between Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Shrek the Third, and I'll put my neck on the line to say that Pirates will be on top of the mountain come summer's end. I hope the next few months are worth the hype.

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