Lebanon/Golan withdrawal?

YEDIOT AHARONOT 5/20/99: "Prime Minister-elect Ehud Baraq plans to withdraw the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] from Lebanon in the framework of a comprehensive plan composed of several stages. The plan, which is being revealed here for the first time, has still not been worked out in detail and changes could still be introduced, but its main points can be already described.

The Israeli Government will publish a political statement that will pave the way for the resumption of negotiations with Syria. The statement will include at least a partial acceptance of the condition posed by al-Asad for the resumption of the talks.

The Syrians claim that Prime Minister Yitzhaq Rabin had agreed to a complete withdrawal from the Golan Heights, following which negotiations were held at Wye Plantation in February 1996, in which "80 percent of the issues" were concluded. This is why the Syrian president is demanding that Israel state it agrees to resume the negotiations "from the point at which they were suspended."

Israel claims Rabin had not agreed to a complete withdrawal from the Golan Heights, but only told the Americans in private talks that he will agree to discuss a withdrawal to the international border on the Golan Heights on condition that Syria will accept the entire package of security arrangements demanded by Israel.

Israel further says that although progress was made in the Wye Plantation negotiations, no agreement was reached on security arrangements and other important issues. This is why the Netanyahu government refused to state that the negotiations would be resumed from the point at which they were suspended according to the Syrian interpretation.

Sources close to Baraq hinted that Baraq would agree to say something like: "Israel agrees to resume the negotiations with Syria from the point at which they were suspended, on the basis of the understandings that existed and of issues formally agreed upon'" without any elaboration or interpretations.

This ambiguity will enable al-Asad to present the Israeli statement as an achievement, and moreover he will be promised that Israel agrees to discuss with Syria its maximal territorial demands on the Golan Heights -- and the Americans will explicitly state this.

The United States and Europe (mainly France and Germany) at this stage have an important role in pressuring al-Asad and supplying him with incentives for accepting this compromise proposal and resuming the negotiations.

The negotiations between Israel and Syria are resuming at a time in which the Lebanon problem is one of the issues on the agenda. Immediately upon the beginning of the negotiations the United States, and perhaps the Europeans as well, will propose that Syria make "a confidence-building gesture" by ascertaining that the Hizballah attacks in the security zone stop, at least for a limited period of several months, until it transpires whether the negotiations are advancing.

When the negotiations with Syria reach an advanced stage, an Israeli-Syrian-Lebanese military committee will convene, with the participation of US and European representatives. The committee will discuss a phased IDF withdrawal to the international border, the deployment of the Lebanese Army and an international peacekeeping force throughout all the area evacuated by the IDF, and guarantees for the personal security of the SLA [South Lebanon Army] personnel who will remain in south Lebanon and their families. At the same time, Israel will make arrangements for resettling and economically rehabilitating the SLA people who will choose to leave the area.

At around the time the negotiations with Syria on the Golan Heights are completed the IDF's redeployment along the Purple Line [the cease-fire line after the Yom Kippur War] will commence, and at the same time the international force will deploy in the area. This force is slated to remain in the area until a complete agreement is signed with Syria and Lebanon. The IDF will change its modus operandi for safeguarding the northern settlements and will preserve its freedom of action deep inside Lebanese territory.

When an agreement with Syria is achieved, a Syrian-guaranteed Israeli-lebanese military and political arrangement will also be reached. In the framework of this arrangement, the Syrian and Lebanese Governments will guarantee to prevent hostile activity against Israel from Lebanese territory.

The international force will eventually transfer the area to Lebanese Army control. If the Baraq government starts implementing this plan, a long period will be required for finalizing it even if there are no interruptions from the Palestinian side. Therefore it is assessed that until the goal is attained at least one year will elapse.

In addition to the 'Syrian component' for solving the Lebanon problem, Baraq plans to propose complementary steps that will encourage the Lebanese -- including Hizballah, Amal, and the SLA -- to agree to an arrangement.

These steps, which Baraq terms "sticks and carrots," include threats to use massive force if the Galilee settlements are harassed after the IDF withdraws from the security zone, as well as various economic incentives with the assistance of the international community, if calm is preserved.

Baraq firmly opposes a unilateral IDF withdrawal in Lebanon as long as there is no agreement for preventing terrorism from the Lebanese border against the Galilee settlements. His plan is based, however, on assessments of Israeli security elements and senior US Administration and French officials, who are convinced that al-Asad will agree to calming down Lebanon, at least temporarily, if a formula is reached for resuming the political negotiations between Israel and Syria on a permanent arrangement in the Golan Heights.

This assessment has been reached against the background of the report that the Syrian president is preparing to resign and is currently investing great efforts in preparations for an orderly transition of power to his son Bashir. This is why he wants to personally close the problematic "files" of the Golan Heights and Lebanon as soon as possible.

Thus his son will not have to deal soon after entering office with situations in which any mistake could topple him and the rule of the Alawite minority in Syria. Although al-Asad is continuing to prepare a military option against Israel, in the present state of his army he considers this possibility a dangerous gamble and prefers to exhaust the political track.

Baraq believes his plan stands a chance only if the Americans and Europeans join the effort energetically and with determination and back the Israeli move with a package of mediation, diplomatic pressure and incentives that will encourage Syria to view the proposal favorably.

Our corespondent Nehama Dowek reports that Baraq's bureau said in reaction: Approximately one month ago Baraq established a security-political team for examining the security and political ramifications of a withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon within a one-year period. The team, which will continue to operate until after the government is established, has still not submitted its final recommendations."

Jonathon Pollard to be released as reward?

MA'ARIV 5/20/99: "In the wake of Netanyahu's defeat in the elections, signs are increasing that President Clinton may pardon Jonathan Pollard. Sources in Washington report that in the wake of Baraq's victory the administration is expected to make a series of steps to improve the atmosphere, such as Pollard's early release.

The recommendations of the US security and judicial top echelon concerning Pollard have been on President Clinton's desk since January. Clinton and Netanyahu discussed Pollard's early release in the Wye Plantation talks. Netanyahu claimed he had been promised that Pollard would be released as part of the agreement.

At the signing ceremony in the White House Clinton declared that he would review the matter at Netanyahu's request, but after Netanyahu froze the implementation of the Wye accord Clinton suspended this review.

Among the issues that "will start moving" in the wake of Netanyahu's defeat: completing the formalities for the transfer of $1.2 billion to Israel in connection with the implementation of the Wye accord and a series of security issues which have long been in the pipeline, primarily the financing of a third Arrow missile and projects to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars in which Israeli military industries are seeking to participate.

Technologies sought by Israel which the US Administration said were secret may now be made accessible to us. Israeli security industries may take part in American projects which they had a hard time joining in recent months because permits were not being issued, such as civilian projects related to space research..."

Barak´s Bureau tells US: Stop meddling!

YEDIOT AHARONOT 5/19/99: "The US Administration expects Ehud Baraq's government to implement the Wye accords as soon as possible, as the first stage in an accelerated peace process. This arises from the remarks of President Clinton, who said yesterday:

"I think the road map is clear. The Wye accords should be carried out."

Clinton noted that the United States will wait for Baraq to form his government before inviting him to Washington to resume the political moves. Yet Dennis Ross, the US mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian talks, revealed yesterday that he plans to come to Israel in the next two weeks even if Baraq's government is not formed by then. In reaction, Baraq's bureau sent a message to the United States, asking that Ross refrain from coming to Israel.

The prime minister-elect's confidants said he would like to visit the United States as soon as he can so as to restart the peace process. Elements in Baraq's bureau said Baraq would like the United States to cease being the meddler-mediator in the future, limiting its activity to accompanying the direct contacts between the parties."

PA revamp?

AL MANAR in Jerusalem 5/18/99: "Al-Manar has learned that President Yasir 'Arafat will, within the next few days, issue a decision on a variety of important matters relating to the amount and scope of challenges that confront our people during one of the most dangerous stages these people are going through.

Before making these decisions, Palestinian consultations and meetings will take place in line with the important speech that the President addressed to his people on 4 May 1999. It has been learned that these resolutions include a decision to dissolve the Legislative Council and promise to hold new elections.

And until these changes take effect, the ministry will be transitional. In addition, he passed resolutions on the level of constructing and bolstering the institutions and a decision relating to holding elections for the village and town councils, as well as to create important positions.

Al-Manar has learned that the Palestinian leadership received three messages from three opposition organizations, in which the opposition groups confirmed their support for President 'Arafat's program, which he is applying together with his people to confront the belligerent stances and difficult challenges.

It has also learned that the President will, during the next few days, visit Cairo and Amman. Sources mentioned that Syrian President Hafiz al-Asad has invited President 'Arafat to visit Damascus.

An informed source affirmed that a meeting on the highest levels will be held this week under the chairmanship of President Yasir 'Arafat, including members of the PLO Executive Committee and the bureau for both the Consultative and National councils, as well as the Ministry.

In an interview with President 'Arafat published by the Egyptian al-Ahram newspaper, he said that the National Authority has three offers before it, the objective of which is to resume the peace process. We will be studying them very soon, he said.

The first of these is a Russian proposal, which calls for convening a meeting of the countries that signed the Oslo Agreement, and the second is an American proposal stipulating the convention of a tripartite Palestinian-Israeli-US meeting in Washington. The third is practical European contribution toward the peace process."

Coalition talks

THE JERUSALEM POST 5/24/99: "Pressure is mounting on One Israel not to include Shas in forming its coalition. In a speech last night at an election victory celebration at Shefayim, Prime Minister-elect Ehud Barak said that "I am determined, together with all - all - parties that want to lend a hand, to ensure that Israel embarks on a new path.

"I am aware of the desire to rise above all the arguments, to put an end to division, hate, and acrimony among us and to stride together toward a better future for Israel. I will be everyone's prime minister. We will propose to anyone who wants to follow our path to join a broad government," he said.

At that point an impromptu chorus of "just not Shas" broke out among the audience, some of whom held signs bidding Barak to leave Shas outside his coalition. "Barak you promised a change, without Shas," some of the placards read. Barak ignored the chants and continued his speech. But at One Israel headquarters, the fax machines and computer terminals are being jammed with thousands of similar demands from party members and the wider public...

Following a meeting with Barak yesterday, One Israel negotiating-team head David Liba'i said all parties in the Knesset would be consulted over the next few days. "During our meeting with Shas representatives, we will state our expectations and explain our problems, so that it should be clear to them...

It's known we have a problem with the fact that Aryeh Deri is still acting as the head of Shas," he said. Meretz will be One Israel's first port of call today in its initial contacts with possible coalition partners, Liba'i said. Shas seems prepared to wait and see what Barak is offering before making a final decision on whether to try to join the coalition.

There is reportedly a difference of opinion between party spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef and Deri. Yosef apparently would prefer to join the coalition. Deri is hesitant, apparently fearing he would be neutralized as party leader...

Barak is also faced with the major problem of how many portfolios to distribute outside of One Israel and whether he can afford to offer coalition partners senior jobs. He has agreed to meet party colleagues on a one-by-one basis over the next two days to hear their requests.

Both Dalia Itzik and Vilna'i have said they would like the Education Ministry. Meretz, the NRP, and Meimad are also expected to demand the portfolio. Those on the One Israel list seemingly guaranteed to receive ministries include David Levy, Ben-Ami, Yossi Beilin, Vilna'i, and Haim Ramon.