ZINC Election Analysis

The Israeli elections have received massive media coverage. ZINC will try and provide additional information that you have not yet heard or read in your local media--but first, a brief ZINC analysis.

Ehud Barak won the election due to several factors, none of which were related to security or the Middle East negotiating process.

The main reason Barak won was the large number of Russian voters who switched their allegiance from Netanyahu to Barak.

Why did they?

Two reasons:

Sharansky took a neutral attitude on the PM election (in 1996 he strongly supported Bibi).

And, Shas was very supportive of Bibi--Shas controls the Interior Ministry-- Interior Ministry officials questioned the Jewishness of a number of Russians in highly publicized cases.

To break the Bibi-Shas relationship, many more Russians (who constitute almost 20% of the electorate) voted for Barak.

But, in the final analysis Bibi lost because of the divisions he sowed within Likud and among his own supporters. He deceived them. He betrayed them. So they left Likud, or they stayed in Likud but campaigned with a "heavy heart".

Those deceptions and divisions made Barak, who campaigned on a mostly unity theme, attractive to the majority of Jewish voters. [An aside: One of the only steps Barak made away from unity was criticism of the religious parties.

That was done, in ZINC's opinion, to gain Russian votes and show the Russians that Barak will stand up to the religious parties. In his post-victory speeches, Barak has been much more conciliatory toward the religious parties.]

Finally, Bibi lost because, as in 1992 when Yitzchak Rabin z'l won, it was right-wing politicians and political parties who brought down the government because they disapproved of their Likud leader's policies.

In 1992 Shamir's government was brought down early (less than a year early); now, Bibi's government was brought down almost 1 1/2 years early. Had those governments not been brought down, the right wing may have won the subsequent election--or, at least stayed in power that much longer.

Perhaps a new generation of right wing leaders will understand, as the left wing leadership generally does, that getting part of what you want is usually better than receiving none of what you want.

ZINC leaves it to our readers to discern the various trends from the results that follow. Pay special attention to the Knesset results. And examine everything with the following adages in mind: What was said in the campaign relating to policies may have little resemblence to policies proclaimed in a new government.

And, parties that say that they will refuse to sit with each other in a new government can usually be influenced-- with money and ministries--to do so.

Victory and defeat

AP 5/18/99: "Excerpts from Israeli Prime Minister-elect Ehud Barak's first comments after Benjamin Netanyahu conceded defeat:

``I stand before you this evening very moved. I wish to say from the depths of my heart, 'Thank you.'

``An hour ago, I spoke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (boos from crowd) -- no, we will not boo a prime minister in office of the state of Israel -- I talked to Benjamin Netanyahu and I thanked him for his service to Israel. ...

``I also pay tribute to the hundreds of thousands who have made use of their civic duty and decided not to elect me. But from this moment on, we are all together, we are one people.

``It is my intention to be everyone's prime minister. Whatever the differences of opinion between us, we are brothers. ...

``All of Israel is responsible for each other. We extend a courageous hand to all, the secular and the religious, the Sephardi and the Ashkenazi ... Everyone, everyone is part of Israel...

``I wore a uniform for many years ... we lost many friends along the way, and we know that our generation must do everything to strengthen the country by advancing the peace process responsibly in a way that guarantees our security.

``We are entering one of the most difficult periods in Israel's history and I say to you that ... we will bring peace and security.''

Excerpts from Netanyahu's concession speech:

``Thank you my friends. I want to congratulate Ehud Barak on his victory in the elections.

``This is how it has to be in a democracy. I want to thank all those who supported and worked so hard, with such dedication for our way, to bring peace and security to Israel, peace for generations and not for the passing moment.

``We ended the terrorism almost completely, we returned personal security to Israel, we created the principle of reciprocity, we continued the peace process, we reduced unemployment.

``The time to calm the winds has come. We need to repair the tears, we need to calm down and unify.

``And I think that now the time has come to say something else. For almost 20 years I've worked as a public servant ...

I have much more to contribute to our country. But I believe that now the time has come to take a break. I think that now the time has come, the time has come to be with my family, with my wife, with my children, and to decide my future. So I am giving notice today of my intention to resign from the leadership of the Likud.

``I want to thank all those who supported me. I want to thank you for the friendship, the loyalty.

``I want to thank two people in particular, Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon, who never hesitated to stand beside me even at the difficult moments.

I want to thank my wife Sarah who strengthened and encouraged me and many of you who gave me endless support to achieve our goal to bring a better future to our children, to ourselves, to Israel.

``In the spirit of unity in Israel, we'll bring about unity in Israel. Continue in this path..."

The new Knesset

ZINC 5/18/99: From Israel Radio, and other sources, the following is the lineup for the 15th Knesset, with about 97% of the election votes tallied. The remaining votes, mostly military and embassy, will be counted today, and the final, official results will be announced on Wednesday.

The numbers in brackets are the party's representation in the outgoing 14th Knesset. Neither The Third Way party, nor Tzomet, from the outgoing Knesset made the minimum vote threshold to be part of the 15th Knesset. Other new parties not on our list also did not meet the minimum vote threshold.

One Israel [Labor] 27 [34]
Likud 19 [32]
Shas 17 [10]
Meretz 10 [9]
Shinnui 6 [part of Meretz]
Yisrael b'Aliyah (Sharansky) 6 [7]
Center Party 6 [Labor & Likud breakaway]
National Religious Party 5 [9]
United Torah Judaism 5 [4]
United Arab Party 5 [4]
National Union--Techuma 4 [various right wing nationalist breakaway]
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) 3 [new Russian party]
Hadash 3 [5]
Balad (Azmi Bishara's Arab Party) 2 [new party]
Am Echad (Amir Peretz) 2 [Labor breakaway]

Overall voter turnout: 79%

Jubilation in Shas headquarters

HA'ARETZ 5/18/99: "Jubilation reigned in Shas headquarters last night as activists learned that the party had not only vastly increased its strength but had made the jump from a minor to a major party, achieving virtual parity with the Likud.

With victory in hand, the party has already set its sights on the next goal: membership in Prime Minister-elect Ehud Barak's coalition. Even before the elections, Barak had exchanged messages with Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef on the possibility of being coalition partners.

The main stumbling block, however, is party leader Aryeh Deri himself, who was recently convicted of taking bribes and sentenced to four years in prison. Barak has publicly said he would not negotiate with Deri, and Meretz - which is likely to be a staple of any Barak coalition - has said it will not sit with Shas as long as Deri is at its head.

A senior Shas figure said these problems might even lead Deri to resign from public life. "At the very least, he will not be able to conduct the negotiations," the source said. "There will be a team to handle that."

[ZINC ED. NOTE: In it's 12:00 midnight EDT broadcast, ISRAEL RADIO reported that, according to Shas activists, Deri will resign from the Knesset, and lead Shas from outside the Knesset.]

The source said that Shas would have two main conditions for joining the coalition: that it not be disqualified in advance from any ministry, including Interior, and that a solution to the problem of yeshiva draft deferments be achieved by negotiation...

Most of all, however, party activists greeted the results as a vindication of Deri. Deri was mobbed by enthusiastic supporters as soon as he entered the hall, greeted with chants of "He is innocent!" - a major theme of the Shas campaign.

Deri was clearly overjoyed by what was largely a personal victory..."I said [after my conviction] that one must bless the evil that happens just as he blesses the good. Then, we didn't know what the good would be. But all those who wanted to crush us... the Creator of the Universe gave us the strength [to overcome them]."

...He also chose to take a conciliatory tone. "The people of Israel has suffered recently from a terrible rift, from hatred and libels," he said. "Now, they need unity and love."...

One Israel/Labor Party - left, center or right?

ARUTZ7 5/18/99: "...May G-d grant strength to His people, May G-d bless His people with peace." So concluded Ehud Barak his first victory speech at 2:30 AM in the Dan Hotel in Tel Aviv. This was followed by another speech before tens of thousands in Rabin Square.

Flanked by Rabbi Yehuda Amital (Meimad), David Levy (Gesher), and Labor seniors, Barak said:

"I respect the hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens who chose not to vote for me, but from now on, we are all together, and we are all one nation. I intend to be the Prime Minister of everyone. We are all brothers, and brothers stay together!... "

He listed his four "red lines" for an agreement with the Palestinians: A united Jerusalem under our sovereignty, eternal Israel capital; no return to the borders of 1967; most of the Yesha residents to remain under Israeli sovereignty; and no foreign army west of the Jordan River. He added that he would not be afraid to "make hard diplomatic decisions."

Prime Minister-elect Ehud Barak has still not given a hint as to what type of government he plans to form. Meretz and Shinui have said that they will not participate in a government with Shas. The only two parties that appear to be certain partners at this point are Yisrael B'Aliyah (7 seats) and the Centrist party (6).

This leaves Barak with three options:

An extreme left-wing government with Meretz, Shinui, the Arabs, and others;

A middle-of-the-road government with Shas, the NRP, and others;

A national-unity government with the Likud and others, which Likud seniors have already expressed a willingness to consider.

Netanyahu's withdrawal from the Likud party leadership strengthens the possibility of such an option.

The Yesha Council's reaction to the Barak victory: Secretary-General Aharon Domb said that the settlement enterprise in Yesha remains strong, despite the victory of left. "Rallies and demonstrations will not be helpful at this point," he said. "Instead, we must begin a dialogue with Ehud Barak."

Other senior Yesha officials now say that the definitive support for Netanyahu by the Yesha leadership, despite his compromises to the Palestinians, was both a political and ideological error.

Election results showed that nearly 20% of Yesha residents voted for Ehud Barak, while United Torah Judaism (UTJ) earned significant support in several religious settlements..."

Shinnui Party

THE JERUSALEM POST 5/18/99: "...The enlistment of [Well known media personality, Tommy] Lapid to head the party resulted in Shinui making the comeback of the elections. In 1992 and 1996, Shinui ran on a joint Meretz list with Mapam and the Citizens Rights Movement.

However, Shinui decided in 1997 against merging with Meretz, mostly due to disagreement over Meretz's socialist economic orientation. In 1988, the last time Shinui ran on its own, it won only two seats.

At the beginning of this campaign, [Shinnui leader Avraham] Poraz decided that the party would run on its own, after talks on joining the Center Party broke down.

The list was not predicted to pass the electoral threshold. Poraz then lost a fight against the Parties Registrar after it approved the name Center Party for Yitzhak Mordechai's list even though Shinui was registered as Shinui - The Center Party.

However, Poraz vowed to enlist high-profile candidates that would join in the fight against religious coercion.Shinui was established in 1974 in the aftermath of the blunders of the Yom Kippur War."

National Religious Party

THE JERUSALEM POST 5/18/99: "The National Religious Party reacted with stunned silence to Channel 2's exit poll that gave it six seats in the 15th Knesset."It is very sad that the NRP lost seats," said Nissan Slomiansky, No. 7 on the party's list...

It had been widely predicted that the party would drop from the nine seats it currently holds, although six seats was considered beforehand as a respectable showing.

Zevulun Orlev, No. 5 on the list, refused to comment on the results, saying that it was "very bad." Haim Druckman, No. 2 on the list and a controversial addition to the slate, also said he would wait for the final count, adding that he thought his presence on the ticket had helped the campaign.

Regardless of the number of seats, the issue now is how the party will conduct negotiations with Prime Minister-elect Ehud Barak. Slomiansky said that if Barak "forms a government with Meretz, Shinui and the Arab parties, and then asks us to join, and we see we won't have any influence, we won't join.".

Transportation Minister Shaul Yahalom, No. 3 on the list, said the party would demand the Education Ministry as a condition for joining the coalition, but would also need to know Barak's position on the territories and the settlements.

Yahalom's bigger concern, he said, was that "the country is going to the extremes, with a strong showing of Shas and Shinui. Now, more than ever, we have to build a bridge and combine religious and secular groups, parties and movements, or society may move to the extreme edges. That will be very dangerous."...

Yisrael b'Aliya Party

THE JERUSALEM POST 5/18/99: Yisrael Ba'aliya leaders and activists were trying to put a positive spin on last night's exit poll results, which showed the party at best retaining the seven seats it won in the previous election, and perhaps even losing one. [ZINC ED NOTE: They received 6 seats.]

There were few, if any, cheers, hugs, or smiles in the cramped auditorium at party headquarters in Tel Aviv when the results were announced...Party activists huddled in the situation room after the initial announcement, which also saw arch rival Yisrael Beiteinu get two seats.
[ZINC ED NOTE: They received 3 seats.]

Arab parties

THE JERUSALEM POST 5/18/99: "Ehud Barak's dramatic victory was greeted with joy by Arab politicians, mixed with disappointment over the relatively low voter turnout in the Arab community.

"At least we'll have the knowledge that Barak won primarily on the Jewish vote and not because of the Arabs," said Hadash spokesman Dror Nissan after a long day of tension and uncertainty...

"We had thought that there would be an 80 percent plus turnout, but this apparently did not happen in the Arab sector. Nevertheless, we believe that support for Hadash has held solid," said Nissan.
[ZINC ED. NOTE: The turnout was 76%]

...Dr. Elie Rekhess, head of Tel Aviv University's program on Arab politics in Israel, said that it is still too early to say what part the Arab vote had played in Barak's expected victory. Nevertheless, he noted that it appeared that the voter turnout among Israeli Arabs had been lower than expected.

"The sudden withdrawal of three candidates may have created a feeling of complacency in the Arab sector, coupled with an unexpected number of abstentions," he said.

"This latter aspect could be attributed to a number of factors, including the fact that a nucleus of Bishara's supporters had advocated putting in blank ballots for prime minister in the event that Bishara dropped out.