1. Russia and Iran

Ma'ariv 1/20/99: "Defense minister Yitzhaq Mordekhay recently delivered to the United States secret documents casting light on the widespread cooperation between Russian scientists and Iran. The documents indicate that at least 10,000 Russian scientists are currently working on developing Iran's nonconventional military capabilities.

The next issue of the foreign report, which reveals the story, discloses that the scientists are now helping Iran develop its biological, chemical, and nuclear weapon industries. In addition, the Russian scientists are helping develop the Shahab 3 and 4 missiles, as well as an s.s. 400 missile with a range of up to 3,600 km.

The British weekly, which claims that Mordekhay passed the information to the Americans during Bill Clinton's visit to Israel, clarified that the Israelis believe that the missiles will be completed in 2002, and by 2007, the missiles will be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The US intelligence services, the report writes, now tend to believe the contents of the Israeli reports; however, they are still not entirely convinced that the Russian government itself is also cooperating with Iran."

2. Spy trial

Nicosia's CYPRUS NEWS AGENCY 1/20/99: "Two Israeli Mossad agents accused of spying against the Cyprus Republic denied today the charges before Court while the prosecution submitted sophisticated equipment into evidence.

State prosecutors also asked for a reference to espionage against "military installations" in one of the charges against the two Israelis to be dropped.

As a result the first charge reads as follows:

"The defendants in unknown time between 15 October and 11 November 1998 in Cyprus and Israel collaborated into spying against the Cyprus Republic i.e. they collaborated against the interests of the Republic to collect information which could be useful to any other state".

Udi Hargov, 37, and Igal Damari, 49, were arrested last November at the southern coastal village of Zygi after a police stakeout of their leased apartment, close to a sensitive military area. Appearing before the Court today they pleaded not guilty to charges of spying, conspiracy to commit espionage and possession of banned listening equipment.

A total of 23 exhibits, including scanners, a laptop computer, mobile phones and tape recorders were presented as evidence by the prosecution which pointed out that through this equipment the defendants watched National Guard, Civil Aviation, Fire Brigade and other essential public services frequencies. The trial was adjourned until Tuesday, January 26."

3. Russia & Israel

Moscow's INTERFAX NEWS AGENCY 1/20/99: Russia is satisfied with the present level of its cooperation with Israel, but Moscow believes that there are good opportunities to give an additional boost to comprehensive cooperation between the two countries, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov has said.

"Russia will do its best to achieve this," he said during a Wednesday news conference on the results of his talks with Israeli Foreign Minister Ari'el Sharon. Sharon said he is certain that Russia will overcome its problems and recover the position in the world that it deserves.

Sharon said Israel expects the system of Russian-Israeli relations that has been established in the past decades to be modified. He said he hopes that the two countries will work together to strengthen international peace and stability.

On relations between Israel and the Palestinian National Authority, Sharon said that Israel remains committed to the peace process in the Middle East and continues to observe all previous agreements with the Palestinians.

Israel is meeting its commitments under the Wye Plantation agreements, Sharon said. He said that he gave Ivanov a detailed document listing the provisions in the agreement that "are being observed by Israel and are not being observed by the Palestinian side."

4. State 2000?

IDF RADIO 1/20/99: Studio Talk between Anchor Mikha Friedman and political correspondent Raviv Drucker.

[Friedman] You are disclosing this morning a new initiative, which is far beyond an initiative but it is more like an agreement between various parties that 'Arafat will delay his proclamation of an independent state until 1 January 2000. Knesset Member [KM] Yosi Beilin initiated this move.

[Drucker] That is right. The move was initiated by MK Yosi Beilin. There are two goals behind the move: First, that 'Arafat will delay the proclamation of a Palestinian state and thus will not hinder the agenda of the upcoming elections, which are slated to be held immediately after the date 'Arafat set for this announcement, 4 May 1999.

The second goal is that this postponement, if carried out, will not be attributed to Netanyahu. This is because it is clear to the Labor Party and Beilin that if such a postponement is achieved, Netanyahu will be the first one to say: They decided to postpone because I demonstrated a decisive position.

The move is actually meant to offer a ladder to 'Arafat. It is also clear to 'Arafat that he has to postpone the proclamation, the question is what will he get in return. With a series of secret meetings, including a meeting with 'Arafat a week ago, a meeting with Dennis Ross, and a meeting tomorrow with the British foreign minister and German foreign minister, Beilin is initiating a move that, as you said, now appears finalized.

However, there is still some time until it can be implemented in the beginning of March.

This move contains the following steps: The EU will issue a statement at the beginning of March. The good part of this statement as far as Israel is concerned is that the EU will call on 'Arafat to delay proclamation of the Palestinian state until 1 January 2000.

This date has two meanings:

First, the beginning of the millennium, a new beginning of a new century.

Second, this date marks the Fatah's founding anniversary as it was established on 1 January 1964.

The bad part of this statement as far as Israel is concerned is that the EU will write that it calls on Israel to stop construction in all settlements and that it agrees that the Palestinians should be granted the right of self-determination; namely, they will support a Palestinian state.

They will tell 'Arafat:

When you establish the state, we will support you. This is a blow to Netanyahu because until now Germany and Britain have not made up their minds and did not voice their opinions on whether they will support a Palestinian state.

[Friedman] This means that by calling for a halt in settlement activity, they prevent Netanyahu from joining the move and the basis for his asserting that the move should be attributed to him and his resolute policy.

This move contains a carrot to 'Arafat as well. He will be able to travel on board his private plane to the United States and hold a series of meetings that will be crowned with a Clinton meeting.

[Drucker] That is right. This is what Europe will contribute to the move. The United States cannot be party to such a statement. It must remain on the fence regarding a Palestinian state.

The United States, however, will give a series of a bilateral meetings between the most senior US officials and Palestinian officials. The cherry will be a meeting between 'Arafat and Clinton in mid-March.

This is another blow to Netanyahu because he has been working very hard over the past weeks to assure that such a meeting will not take place. A week ago, Israeli Ambassador to Washington Zalman Shuval sent a letter to the foreign minister and the prime minister to the effect that the most senior echelon in Washington promised him that such a meeting will not take place.

Today we report that such a meeting will take place. In addition, Albright and 'Arafat will hold meetings in Europe. Albright will also meet Abu-Mazin

[Mahmud 'Abbas] in the United States. The Americans will tell the Palestinians:

You must delay the proclamation of a Palestinian state, and in due time when you do announce it, we will support you."

5. EU state 2000?

Paris' RADIO MONTE CARLO 1/20/99: "[Israeli] Labor Party Deputy Yosi Beilin's statement that the European Union [EU] will ask Palestinian President Yasir 'Arafat to postpone the declaration of a Palestinian state for seven months has evoked this issue again.

The EU's Permanent Envoy to the Middle East, Miguel Moratinos, announced that the EU currently has no stand on the matter and that any [future] move by the EU will seek to consolidate the peace process.

The EU's denial came through the Permanent Envoy, who is accompanying Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern on his current visit to Israel. The [Israeli] Labor Party Deputy had made statements to the Israeli radio affirming that the EU was getting ready to issue a declaration early March asking the Palestinian President to delay the declaration of the State for seven months.

Therefore, he added, Israel announces its immediate readiness to recognize a demilitarized Palestinian state, without defining its borders and capital, and that Israel undertakes to withdraw from 50 percent of the West Bank land if such a state is proclaimed on 1 January 2000.

The Palestinian Authority [PA] immediately rejected these proposals as did the Israeli Likud.

Here is Safiyah 'Amarah:

['Amarah] In an interview with Radio Monte Carlo, Head of the Palestinian negotiating team Sa'ib 'Urayqat asserted the PA's rejection of this proposal. President Yasir 'Arafat's spokesman Nabil Abu-Rudaynah this morning described the proposal as unacceptable, noting that honoring the Oslo accord's timetable is a serious issue. Let us listen to Minister Sa'ib 'Urayqat.

['Urayqat] I believe I have to explain first that 4 May 1999 was not a day chosen by the Palestinian leadership. It came about as a result of negotiations with the Israeli side. It was endorsed by the United States, Russia, the EU, Norway, Egypt, and Jordan.

Thus, Resolutions 242 and 338 are supposed to be implemented, the Palestinian people should practice their legitimate political rights, and the interim-phase negotiations should be completed on 4 May 1999.

Postponement of the declaration even for one hour beyond 4 May is not within the jurisdiction of the Palestinian leadership, but rather within the legal jurisdiction of the signatory countries. So far I do not know these leaks and rumors that emerge from here and there.

World countries, namely the signatory countries, should compel the Israeli Government to implement [the accords], instead of reneging on the interim accords, mainly the Wye river memorandum, and instead of imposing a de facto situation through settlement, confiscation of land, demolition of homes, and demographic and geographical changes in Jerusalem.

As the PA, so far we have received nothing official from these countries that signed the accord--the United States, Europe, Norway, Egypt, and Jordan--so that we could give an answer of yes or no. We received nothing and will not comment on media-reported statements here or there."

6. Assad succession?

Paris AL WATAN AL ARABI 1/16/99: "This is the fifth term in office for Syrian President Hafiz al-Asad. He actually assumed power in 1968-1969 and officially in 1970. Al-Asad has been in power for the past 30 years while the Ba'th Party has been the leading party in Syria for the past 35 years.

Over the past three decades, many developments have taken place in the West and the East and in the Arab world that has been the center of these developments and the regional and international political storms. The region has witnessed several shakeups.

But the Syrian regime stood fast, abided by its constants, dealt with ill winds with nerves of steel, and kept and maintained a margin for decision making and maneuvering. No one argues that the man is unique and his leadership a historic one. But, is it time to prepare Syria for a new era at the threshold of the third millennium?

Is the old guard that has cemented stability in Syria still capable of tackling new developments?

How can one pave the way for renovation within the framework of continuity and on the basis of loyalty to the constants and the leadership's historical political line?

The referendum on the fifth term in office which somewhat resembles the traditional acclamation system carries with it some if not all the answers. How?

The list of annual and sometimes semi-annual promotions within the Syria army comprised the name of Dr. Staff Lieutenant Colonel Bashshar al-Asad, who was promoted to Staff Colonel.

This promotion could have passed unnoticed as a measure the Syrian army carries routinely to promote those deserving officers who have completed courses in their own specialization. But, this measure, at this time, is not a routine one.

It should be viewed as a step within the framework of preparing Bashshar al-Asad to assume a political position, that of deputy president for national security affairs, a post that became vacant with the issuance of decree number eight relieving Dr. Rif'at al-Asad, the president's brother, from the Ba'th Party Regional Command and the post of vice president which he has occupied for more than 10 years.

This promotion, if carried out, has a special importance in these circumstances for two considerations at least:

The promotion comes at the beginning of the fifth term in office of President Hafiz al-Asad who will turn 69. It also takes place within the framework of promotions, transfers, and appointments among the senior Armed Forces officers who have been the protectors and shield of the regime until now.

These promotions, transfers, and appointments have started months ago. Since some of the officers head the Syrian forces in Lebanon, what takes place, therefore, indicates a new political phase in both Syria and Lebanon.

It goes without saying that Lebanon is involved in these changes as Bashshar al-Asad, in view of his new post, will take over the Lebanese file. There is an intention to hand over the Iraqi file to Vice President 'Abd-al-Halim Khaddam.

Syria is becoming more and more interested in Iraq's future because the ongoing US-Iraqi conflict will have grave consequences on pan-Arab security.

With these changes, which would be completed with the appointment of a new regional command and a new government, President Hafiz al-Asad, would have, as usual, finalized the preparations for a change on the leadership level for the coming stage in a carefully-studied manner.

This is to consolidate the domestic front, tackle expected developments and events, and enhance national and pan-Arab constants against any eventual dangers, particularly after Israel escalated its aggression against Lebanon, benefiting from the state of confusion prevailing within the US Administration and the very weak Arab state of affairs.

Stability is one of the main features of the Syrian regime under President al-Asad, who is reassured that the domestic front with its Lebanese ramifications is solid, no matter what takes place in the region.

Therefore, the recent arrangements and political and security measures can only be viewed as precautionary measures in light of the US-Israeli relations and their ups and downs, the escalation of the Iraqi crisis, the frustration experienced by the autonomy rule in Palestine, and the early Israeli elections.

All this shows that the region will witness major developments in the first half of this year, and that one should be well prepared to confront them because the US bulldozer will start reopening the peace road after the Israeli elections and it will not hesitate to remove humps and protuberances it may find on its path...

Given the priorities, one can say that preparing Bashshar al-Asad to assume his responsibilities is the main title in the forthcoming stage for Syria as people are fully convinced that the present leadership style should be continued..."

7. Secret 'refugee' report

Londons AL SHARQ AL AWSAT 1/18/98: "The Arab states hosting the Palestinian refugees are debating a US report on an intention to settle the Palestinian refugees primarily on the territories of these states and move some of them to neighboring Arab states and other states as a prelude to confining the file of the refugees to only one state.

An informed source in the Jordanian capital told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the US report was worked out in a way that prompts the states hosting the Palestinian refugees to enter into a competition of an economic nature under the slogan of compensations for the refugees and the right of these states to take their own share of these compensations.

Despite the extreme secrecy by the concerned Palestinian and Jordanian officials regarding this issue, Al-Sharq al-Awsat has learned that the report was distributed to the participants at a recent meeting of the Refugees Committee stemming from the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians in Cairo.

Former Iranian President Hashemi-Rafsanjani the day before yesterday said that he has documents about a scheme to settle 3 million Palestinian refugees in the western desert in Iraq.

According to the source, the report talked about distributing five million Palestinian refugees among the Middle East states, Europe, the United States, Australia, and other states.

It is worth noting that the issue of the Palestinian refugees was left to the final-status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in accordance with the agenda of the Oslo agreements, which specified the hot and important issues such as the borders, water, Jerusalem, and the refugees, all of which will be discussed during these negotiations.

The report said that approximately 5,000,357 Palestinian refugees in the world, out of 6,752,000 refugees, will be distributed among the states in the region and some states in the world as a final solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, so this file will be finally closed.

Regarding Jordan, which hosts the largest number of Palestinian refugees; namely, 1,832,000 and not 1,230,000 as was reported by the latest official statistics in Jordan, it will be asked to host 168,000 more Palestinians, so the Palestinian refugees in Jordan will be two million refugees by the year 2005.

As for Syria, it will be asked to host 75,000 refugees. This will raise the number of Palestinian refugees in Syria from 325,000 to 400,000 refugees. Lebanon will have to host 750,000 Palestinian refugees despite the fact that the number of refugees in it totals approximately 372,700, including 186,000 refugees residing in Lebanon's refugee camps.

Israel will be obliged to take 75,000 Palestinian refugees from the Arab states as part of the right to repatriation for those who can prove their right to Palestine before the year 1948.

The report proposed that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt, and the Arab Maghreb states settle 519,000 more Palestinian refugees, who will be added to 446,000 Palestinians currently present in these states, so the new figure will total 965,000 refugees.

The report added that the European states and the United States have to receive 90,000 more Palestinian refugees, knowing that they now host 452,000 refugees, thus raising the total number of Palestinian refugees in them to 542,000.

The report pointed out that in accordance with the US scheme, it is scheduled to double the West Bank's population in the next eight years from 1,200,000 to 2,400,000 by bringing in Palestinian refugees from other states and moving 350,000 refugees from some neighboring states and the Gaza Strip to the West Bank in order to reduce the high density of population in the Gaza Strip.

The number of Palestinians in the region is expected to reach about 8,265,000 by the beginning of next century. The report asked the Arab states, Europe, and Israel to help as much as possible in providing the necessary mechanism to render this scheme a success.

It is worth noting that the losses of the Palestinians who were made homeless in 1948 totaled 1.182 billion Palestinian pounds in accordance with the report worked out in the fifties by the land assessor in the UN Arbitration Committee on Palestine at the prices of 1948, which correspond to $184 billion at 1984 prices according to estimates made by neutral states.

Some observers and legal specialists warn that the Oslo agreement, which was signed by Israel and the PLO on 13 September 1993, mentions the refugees but does not specify their nationality.

This will allow Israel in the future to raise the issue of the so-called Jewish refugees who left the Arab states versus the Palestinian refugees.

This explains why concerned Israeli circles have compiled information on the property of Jews in Arab states as a prelude to raising this issue at the table of the final-status negotiations and bartering the property of the Jews for that of Palestinians.