1. Jordanian successor?

Paris' AL WATAN AL ARABI 1/8/99: "On the evening of Tuesday, 29 December 1998, Jordan Television interrupted its normal programs to broadcast a message by Jordan's Regent and Crown Prince Hasan conveying the good news to the Jordanian people that King Husayn has been cured and will soon begin his trip back home.

Prince Hasan described the king in his message as the "king of hearts and minds," "the crowned monarch," and the "most cherished and most loved."

The prince also read a message from the king affirming that the doctors who have treated him are satisfied with the results of the tests given to him after the treatment and that the results were beyond expectations. Jordan lived a night of sweeping joy on that evening.

This joy was reflected the next day in the headlines of the newspapers which in turn congratulated the Jordanian people for the king's recovery and his expected return home on the 'Id al-Fitr holiday after spending a period of recuperation in London.

As the news spread, the ministerial committee headed by Prime Minister Dr. Fayiz al-Tarawneh, which is in charge of the preparations for the celebrations that will mark the king's welcome back home, announced a state of mobilization to put the final touches on the comprehensive popular and official program that has been prepared to welcome the king.

It should be noted here that all segments of the Jordanian people followed up the king's journey of ailment and treatment which continued for six months during which he underwent six stages of chemotherapy treatment for lymphatic gland cancer interrupted by surgery for a bone marrow transplant to replace all the infected cells.

As the Jordanian people were preparing to proclaim their great joy at the king's return and recovery, high-level regional and international quarters also followed up the king's health with extreme concern. They shared with the Jordanians the apprehensions that the king's health and future might reflect on the wellbeing and future of his country...

Sources accessible to the al-Watan al-'Arabi have said that there are two important factors which are drawing the attention of observers at the outset of the king's return trip home.

The observers view these two factors as the basis for assessing the impact of the king's return on Jordan and on the region, all the more so because for the last half century, the king has played a crucial role in regional politics and managed to survive very critical crises and to cope with decisive challenges that were posed to his country.

The first thing which drew the attention of these observers was the official keenness to assert that the king has been completely cured, something which is not beyond the reach of contemporary medical science. In fact, the king's doctors have said that a second bone marrow transplant could lead to full recovery for an unspecified period of time.

However, this medical assessment that signifies a great achievement implies in the views of the observers another fact; namely, the king will resume his functions which were carried out by his crown prince and will personally lead one of the most critical phases in the life of Jordan through his well-known political shrewdness, wisdom and vision...

[Informed US] sources said that with the King's return home, a very important change could be introduced to the structure of the regime and the office of crown prince. According to the information, the king's return home will coincide with the return of the talk about what is called as the "problem of succession."

Although there is talk about differences of opinions within the Royal Family on who will hold the post of crown prince when Hasan becomes king, it seems according to the recent US information that the whole file of the office of crown prince might be re-opened again.

In other words, these sources say that the impression that was prevailing since 1965 that Prince Hasan will definitely succeed King Husayn to the throne of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan will perhaps come under review in the coming phase.

In this respect, sources accessible to al-Watan al-'Arabi have revealed that a series of important and crucial meetings were held in the United States between King Husayn and senior US officials during which the Jordanian monarch was surprised with the revelation of a US desire to reconsider the question of succession to the throne, i.e. the succession of Crown Prince Hasan to the throne of his brother King Husayn.

The sources said the most important of these secret meetings was held three days before Christmas when the Jordanian monarch was surprised with a visit by a high-level US delegation of key officials in the administration and the National Security Council, who met for a long period of time with the king in the presence of Queen Nur. Informed sources said that the US side expressed for the first time the US "dissatisfaction" with the way Crown Prince Hasan was running the country in the absence of King Husayn.

The US side has apparently made the direct criticism of the king's brother as mild as possible in order not to antagonize King Husayn. The US officials who met the king were of the view that US dissatisfaction stems from apprehension about the future in case of the king's absence, who was still despite his stay in the United States a guarantee and moral support for the policy of the crown prince.

The Americans explained that they were building their calculations on the basis of the future phase to come, adding that Prince Hasan might find it difficult to fill the gap which King Husayn would leave in terms of his historic popular support, particularly that the crown prince has basic "points of weakness," such as the fact that he is a technocrat and an intellectual who did not manage to "reach the hearts" of the popular segments or guarantee the loyalty of the clans. Furthermore, Palestinians have scored points against him for some earlier attitudes he had adopted.

The sources went on to say that the official of the US National Security Council focused in his intervention on Jordan's full loyalty to King Husayn and then went directly into the subject. He said that Washington believes that Prince Hamzah, Queen Nur's eldest son who was born in 1980, is the appropriate person to accede to the throne.

The US official commended Prince Hamzah's personality and his style of thinking, noting that King Husayn was younger than his son when he acceded to the throne, that Hamzah would be lucky to begin his rule when his father was still next to him and that he could benefit from his experience, credibility, popularity and the national consensus approving his leadership.

Furthermore, Prince Hamzah would also benefit from his mother, Queen Nur, who is known for her strong and popular personality with the Jordanian people and who could support her son during the transitional period, exactly like Queen Zayn, mother of King Husayn, did by playing a major and important role in the early years of King Husayn's accession to the throne.

The official of the US National Security Council went on to say that the fact that King Husayn assumed office at an early age did not stop him from gaining experience and statesmanship which made him one of the most prominent and most capable Arab leaders.

The evidence of this is that the king managed during the years of his rule to steer Jordan to the shore of safety and to cope with all the difficulties, attempted coups and disturbances in the region in which Jordan was a target. King Husayn even succeeded in keeping Jordan united and strong despite the large-scale Palestinian immigration after the 1967 war.

He also came out victorious in 1970 in the aftermath of a serious confrontation with the Palestinians during which many people thought that the Palestinian resistance would do to Jordan what it did later on to Lebanon.

Moreover, through his political wisdom, cleverness and Arab and international prestige, King Husayn managed to put behind him the phase of the Iraq-Iran war and its consequences and to take himself out of the bottleneck during Iraq's occupation of Kuwait. He also knew how to save his country from the repercussions of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Israeli -Palestinian conflict.

The US side pointed out during the meeting that the appointment of Prince Hamzah to succeed King Husayn could generate division in the ranks of the Royal Family, particularly that the designation of Prince Hasan as Crown Prince dates as far back as 1965.

It is noteworthy that King Husayn said a few years ago that the question of succession to the throne has not been settled yet and hinted that a "Family Council" might be set up to tackle the issue. The Americans said they were convinced that the king is capable of containing any reaction within the Royal Family that might arise from the question of the succession to the throne.

The US administration official told the king during the meeting : "There is an important point which we believe should be taken into consideration, Your Majesty. You know that people usually receive any new official with satisfaction and are willing to grant him a period of grace to prove himself. As for Prince Hasan, the Jordanians have now come to know him well.

They know his policies, the style of his thinking and personality. Although we have nothing against the general line he is charting, there are apprehensions about his ability to win over a people like the Jordanian people, and this might constitute a danger to the regime in the future."

The US administration official continued: "As for Prince Hamzah, we are confident that he will have the advantage of the assets of his father working in his favor, that the people will grant him their confidence and will give him a chance in anticipation of the results.

Thus two or three years could go by with no objection or opposition to him, and this is a sufficient period for him to consolidate his position in power and put his house in order. We are fully prepared to support Prince Hamzah financially and morally. We are also willing to make the external atmosphere secure for him and to warn any neighbor of Jordan against causing trouble for Prince Hamzah."

The sources quoted the US administration official as saying he had reviewed with King Husayn the likely domestic opposition to the rule of "King Hamzah." He said he was confident that King Husayn was capable as usual of achieving domestic consensus over his choice and averting any negative repercussions.

He added: Nevertheless, we are prepared to assist the security services in Jordan and provide them with all means of support.

The sources said that King Husayn, who was only listening to the US briefing, suddenly interrupted the conversation to thank the Americans for their counsel and interest in Jordan and its future. However, he added that he could not accept such a solution because the question of succession is a Jordanian issue in the first place and its solution rests within the Royal Family.

He went on to say : Prince Hasan is the crown prince, the "Pupil of my Eye" and I have full confidence in him. If there is a chance for any change, the decision is for Prince Hasan to make--the decision of conceding the office of crown prince, if he wished so.

The sources said that Queen Nur intervened and pleaded with the king not to make a final decision on the question until after he returns home, that he should wait until he is fully recovered and capable of active thinking and of making the appropriate decision in light of his perception of the supreme interests of the Hashemite kingdom, the people, the Royal Family and the region.

Before the meeting was over, US officials conveyed to the Jordanian monarch their wish to hold further high-level meetings with him prior to his return home. The official of the US National Security Council said he wished the king would summon to the meetings a number of key Jordanian army and intelligence service officers to hear their views and assessment of the likely repercussions of this proposal to the Jordanian domestic front.

The informed sources said the meeting was over without a decisive decision being made on the issue, but they spoke of a strong American trend in this direction. The sources asserted that the issue was listed on the agenda of the topics which President Bill Clinton will discuss with the king at their meeting which will be held at the White House prior to the return of the Jordanian monarch to Amman after spending a short period of recuperation in London.

During his stay in London, the king will hold talks with the British officials who are familiar with the US position. Meanwhile, US circles have begun to publicize the succession of Prince Hamzah to the throne of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan as a matter taken for granted. They are also getting ready to monitor the unprecedented mass celebrations that will welcome the king back home..."

2. Assassination attempt?

MA'ARIV 1/13/99: "Israel recently tried to assassinate Shaykh Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizballah. This was disclosed by the British Foreign Report. According to the report, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu received the inner cabinet's approval for the operation and immediately afterwards a smart bomb was planted along the road on which the shaykh's entourage was slated to travel.

Nasrallah, however, altered his route at the last moment. In tomorrow's edition, Foreign Report states that Hizballah personnel discovered the bomb the following day and attempted to dismantle it. One of their bomb disposal experts was killed while dismantling the bomb, and Foreign Report states that Israel rushed to proclaim the next day that the Hizballah bomb disposal expert had been killed on purpose.

The British weekly adds that the Israeli inner cabinet ministers were angered by the reports of the bomb disposal expert's death and demanded explanations from Binyamin Netanyahu.

Foreign Report states that the same ministers clarified that they had authorized the operation only after being promised that Shaykh Nasrallah himself was the target. Prime Minister Netanyahu was subsequently forced to admit that something had gone wrong at the last minute, with the result being that the Shiite leader had escaped assassination.

In its report, Foreign Report also alludes to the raid carried out by Israeli naval commandos two weeks ago, which aimed to liquidate a Hizballah leader in a village near the security zone. The report states that the naval commandos were spotted by a young volunteer and were forced to kill him.

Immediately afterwards, they were evacuated by helicopter. Foreign Report also writes about Hizballah's internet site. The British weekly brings a series of examples proving that the Shiite movement uses its internet site to influence the decisionmaking process in Israel.

Among other things, the report writes that the Hizballah site claimed that members of the movement are holding the remains not only of the late Itamar Ilya but also of other Israeli naval commandos [killed in an ambush in Lebanon in September 1997]."

3. IDF restructure

YEDIOT AHARONOT 1/13/99: "The plan for changes in the IDF's [Israel Defense Forces] structure and deployment, which Chief of Staff Mufaz intends to implement over the next two years, is far-reaching and ambitious but indisputably necessary in light of the rapid military changes in the region.

The Crossword 2000 plan is designed to enable Israel to confront a surprise attack by a neighboring country -- or a coalition of Middle East states -- under the worst possible conditions or, in other words, in the event of a surprise ground offensive accompanied by a missile attack on the Israeli home front, and perhaps also with the addition of Palestinian guerrilla and terrorist attacks against traffic axes and inside Israel.

It is rather clear that under such circumstances, the mobilization of reserve troops could be disrupted and delayed, and it may not be possible to rapidly deploy regular army units between the various sectors and fronts as the IDF did in previous wars.

The conclusion from this is that the IDF's regular air and ground forces on their own must be capable of blocking a surprise attack directed simultaneously against the soldiers in the battlefield as well as against the home front.

Afterwards, when the reserve troops have been called up, Israel will be able to use them for a counteroffensive -- if this proves possible in light of the existing conditions and time frame.

In order to ensure that the IDF's regular fighting force is up to this task, it must be deployed in the following way:

The field units and their respective commands should not be encumbered with excessive preparations and administrative work before entering battle;

*the IDF in general and its ground forces in particular should have greater and more accurate firepower than they do today;

*all units should be familiar with their special missions from all possible aspects and train in carrying them out together with other units earmarked for the same tasks;

*the commands must also be highly knowledgeable with regard to the sectors in which they will operate and know about the forces that they will command;

*and finally, the General Staff must become more adaptable, and the chief of staff must be capable of commanding all the IDF branches in wartime and not merely the ground forces as in previous wars.

The Crossword 2000 plan constitutes an attempt to achieve all this without significantly increasing the scope of the IDF's ground forces and the defense budget. The General Staff intends to pay for the new state-of-the-art battle systems mainly by canceling entire commands and thoroughly thinning out the commanding and logistic levels.

The Ground Forces Command, therefore, will become responsible for building and training all the IDF ground units. This will enable the IDF to dispense with a great number of its existing training bases at the brigade and unit level.

This is also the reason why unaffiliated brigades like Golani, Giv'ati, and the paratroopers are slated to be incorporated into a divisional framework. They will train in the framework of these divisions together with the armored units and other soldiers who will join them in war.

The division will also provide them with the necessary logistic and adjutancy services. Soldiers at the lower ranks will not really feel any change, but for many senior commanders it will be a totally new situation.

It is only natural for any commander, especially those who hitherto had the status of being "independent in the field" with their "private" commands, not to like the changes. The plan, therefore, has aroused mixed feelings among a significant number of senior to mid-level commanders, such as brigadier generals, colonels, and lieutenant colonels.

These officers, who are familiar with the intricacies of internal IDF politics, know how to torpedo unwelcome changes with an expertise that could put any civilian political functionary to shame.

That is why Chief of Staff Mufaz took the preemptive measure of including all the major generals on the General Staff, as well as a large number of their subordinates, in the preparation of the plan. Now it remains to be seen whether the 16th chief of staff will be able to succeed where a number of his predecessors have failed."

4. Hezbollah email

Beirut's AL SAFIR 1/11/99: "In addition to the language of artillery fire, massacres, and evicting people from their homes that the Zionists use in south Lebanon and al-Biqa' al-Gharbi, they have another "outlet" through which they are waging another type of war.

They are using another space for either "verbal" bombardment or to make appeals for mercy in accordance with the varying balance of power, as they see it. They have turned the Internet into a new arena of confrontation with Hizballah, sometimes uttering threats but at other times begging the resistance to stop planting explosive devices.

This demonstrates the degree of stress and confusion that the operations of the Islamic resistance are causing inside the Zionist entity.

Dozens of messages from various Israeli sources arrive almost daily at Hizballah's e-mail address, [email protected], but most are from Israeli troops. The messages and questions are never answered. Apparently it is a one-way debate.

A Hizballah media official explains: "We do not answer the messages. We only receive. Day by day we discover the growing state of confusion and division on the Zionist home front."

The more recent messages, especially those received in November and December provide a comprehensive picture of the kind of messages received, ranging in tone in accordance with the fluctuating military fortunes of the two sides.

When the Zionists are at the receiving end of the military strikes, their tone becomes milder and the supplication formula creeps in. When the roles are reversed, the tone becomes cruel.

In periods of military "truce", the messages focus on ideological attacks and insults to sacred religious symbols..."

5. PA weaponry

MA'ARIV 1/13/99: "The Palestinian Authority [PA] has smuggled a number of antiaircraft guns and dozens of antitank missile launchers into the areas under its control, in contravention of the Oslo accords.

This was disclosed by Foreign Minister Ari'el Sharon yesterday at a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Sharon said that to date, the Palestinians have implemented only "a very small part of the Wye agreement."

He also noted that the Palestinians possess thousands of handguns, assault rifles and submachine guns, ammunition for light weapons, heavy machine guns, thousands of hand grenades and a few mortars, thousands of mines, thousands of kg of explosives, and hundreds of antitank grenades.

The foreign minister also claimed that dozens of Palestinian officers had married Israeli Arab women in the past year and moved to Arab settlements inside the Green Line.

Sharon asserted that this is an attempt by the PA to realize the right of return in a roundabout way. Yesterday, Sharon met with Egyptian Foreign Minister 'Amr Musa.

At the end of their meeting, Sharon was invited to visit Egypt and intends to accept the invitation. The meeting ended in a diplomatic incident, when Musa refused to shake Sharon's hand in front of the cameras, although he had done so earlier during their meeting.

Minister Sharon is due to arrive in France today on an official visit."

6. MIG upgrades

Moscow's INTERFAX 1/13/99: "Several Israeli companies, including the IAI air company, are holding talks with the producer of Russia's MiG military aircraft on possible cooperation on upgrades to Russian-produced MiG-21 fighter jets.

MiG Director General Mikhail Korzhuyev has told Interfax that some 5,000 MiG-21 planes are currently in use in foreign countries. "This is a huge market" which Russia should occupy by itself and with its foreign partners when necessary, Korzhuyev said. MiG should team up with Israeli companies "in the markets of countries where we (Russia) have lost our influence," he said.

He said the proceeds from MiG upgrades should mostly be spent on the modernization of Russia's Air Force.

"The energetic propositions from Israeli companies may partially be due to the fact that they have not been very successful in their attempt to make upgrades to Romania's MiG-21 planes on their own," Korzhuyev said. Russia and India are implementing a joint program to retrofit MiG-21 aircraft..."

7. Judicial/police scandal

THE JERUSALEM POST 1/15/99: "Corrupt cops, a blackmailed judge, dishonest lawyers, and a framed conviction on a drug charge - these are the ingredients of a 17-year-old affair which burst into the media limelight yesterday and, if proven, could rock the country's law enforcement and political establishment.

Attorney- General Elyakim Rubinstein, who has launched a full investigation, told a press conference that some of the evidence he has received appears to have been fabricated and he has not seen evidence that the judge was the victim of extortion.

The story broke yesterday in a report in Ma'ariv by Ben Caspit. There is a media blackout on some of the names of the people involved, many of whom are well known and have been promoted to high positions in their respective fields in the intervening years.

One of the question marks hanging over the case, however, is why the alleged victim waited so long to raise the matter publicly.

According to Caspit, 17 years ago police officers led by Zion Peretz, now retired, apparently framed a member of a prominent business family in Tiberias on drug charges.

The documents presented to Rubinstein claim that these policemen blackmailed the judge into convicting the man in order to block the promotion of an outsider to a senior police position.

This was later reported to be IDF Brig.-Gen. (res.) Avraham Baram, whom then police inspector-general Herzl Shafir wanted to appoint. Peretz denied the charges. Several lawyers, including Bar Association head Dror Hoter-Yishai and two others who have since become judges, allegedly backed the police.

Hoter-Yishai, the defense lawyer in the case, in television interviews last night denied acting in collusion with the prosecution and said there is no basis to claims the judge was blackmailed.

But he said that, at the time, the police evidence was distorted and misleading. Among those he said investigated the case at the time was Dorit Beinisch, a former state attorney and now a Supreme Court justice.

The judge in the case, who is now in a very senior position, was allegedly suspected of raping a 17-year-old, who was then sent to the US to prevent her from filing a complaint. Shafir told Channel 2 last night that the Interior Ministry had told him at the time that Baram was friendly with someone convicted of drug offenses or possessing illegal weapons.

The minister at the time was Yosef Burg. The alleged framed victim, then a Tiberias resident, is asking for a retrial after serving a two-year prison sentence. He claimed he has solid evidence proving his innocence. Ma'ariv also claimed that the group of policemen documented most of its activities and these documents have been forwarded to Rubinstein, who yesterday said some were obvious forgeries.

He said all the material will be thoroughly checked, but advised caution.

"Even at the initial stage, question marks arise concerning the authenticity [of some of the documents]," Rubinstein said. "I want to warn us all against spreading panic and fear... and not harming people for no reason, whether they be in the judicial or public establishment."...

Former police inspector-general Assaf Hafez, under whom the initial investigation into the police was conducted, said yesterday that, even if the charges turn out to be true, they do not involve the senior police echelon. Some of those involved have since retired and some have died, he said.

Other police officers said the alleged victim was one of 78 drug dealers caught in a police clampdown. Many also noted the upstanding nature of the judge allegedly involved. But Knesset Law Committee chairman Hanan Porat (National Religious Party), who recently received material relating to the case, said last night he is shocked by the findings.

He added that he has a document stating there had been a perversion of justice and police findings had been fabricated. He said the letter was from a "head of police investigations in recent years" to the police inspector-general, but refused to say whether the officer was Cmdr. Sando Mazor.

The Israel Police last night issued a statement calling the document an amateurish forgery and saying that Mazor and the secretaries who allegedly typed it had denied it.

In November 1997, a complaint against the policemen was lodged with the Justice Ministry's police internal affairs department. Despite the fact that the statute of limitations applies to the alleged violations, the department carried out an investigation in preparation for a possible retrial.

Last August, the department closed the file for lack of evidence. This decision was appealed in October. Ten days ago, Porat asked for a retrial and forwarded to Rubinstein documents which he said the Justice Ministry did not have when it decided to close the file.

Likud MK Doron Shmueli, a friend of the alleged victim, said that when the results are published it will result in an upheaval throughout the establishment and loss of faith in the legal system. Labor whip Elie Goldschmidt, who was then an intern in the office of the lawyer who represented the alleged victim in his appeal, said yesterday he had at the time believed in the man's innocence.

"I pray these things will prove to be unfounded. I hope tomorrow morning we'll wake up and end this nightmare concerning the legal system."

8. J/P scandal II

ARUTZ7 1/18/99: "Yehiam Ohana, the man who claims he was framed by the police 17 years ago on drug-charges, has been remanded for seven days. He is suspected of having been responsible for forging some of the documents that allegedly show the proof of his frame-up claims.

Novice investigator Rachel Lev, who aided Ohana, has been released to house arrest. Ma'ariv today published the story of yet another former police commander who claims that a particular senior police officer initiated the framing of Yehiam Ohana.