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REPORT 12 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom June 2008.

01 April 2008 .

Hello everybody. Since the last few week we had watched and heard some suprising news in television, radio, newspapers and internet-sites regarding political and economic issues in Malaysia.

Malaysian 12th General Election was held in 8th March 2008. It was a 12th GE after 50 years of Malaysian Independence. The election was held in peace and more than 70% of the voters were fullfilling their rights and obligation. Compared to US, the voting percentage is much better in Malaysian GE!

This 12th GE started with inactive campaign among competing parties around Malaysia. In many states for example in Kuala Lumpur, Johor, Perak, Penang, Sabah and Sarawak have shown "low temperature" political campaign, except Kelantan. The National Front or Barisan National, BN - the coalition of UMNO, MCA, MIC and some smaller parties, under Prime Minister Abdullah was targeted to rule Kelantan state again. Najib Razak had also making rhetoric statements to give "health-treatment" to "sick" Kelantan state to influece Kelantanese to vote for BN.

In other side, Alternative Front or Barisan Alternatif, BA (now has changed to People Front or Barisan Rakyat, BR), which is a coalition of PAS, DAP and PKR parties, had making consistent protest and campaign against Abdullah's government policies. Names such as Nik Aziz (the Tuan Guru - Kelantanese) of PAS, Lim Kit Siang (Melaka) of DAP and Anwar Ibrahim (Penang)of PKR were the top leaders in BR, which led by Anwar Ibrahim, who is ex-Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister and sacked by Dr.Mahathir in 1999 due to UMNO internal crisis and Malaysian political and economic instability caused by Asian Financial Crisis 1997. PAS is an Islamic-fundamental party, DAP is a chinese led party and PKR is a multiraces party (K represents Keadilan or Fairness).

Since 10th GE in 1999, politics in Malaysia has changed to two fronts (coalitions) political system of BN and BR (BA) due to Dr. Mahathir's cruel political act by sacking his deputy in Sept 1998. The cruel and injustice acts led opposition parties to unite and form BA, together against the Dr. Mahathir's and BN regime. Also big groups of professionals, muslim clerics and supporters left BN.

In 2007, Dr. Mahathir had confessed in his speech, his previous accusations on Anwar was not true and the sacking was a power abused. You can find the video of his confession in VCDs or youtube website in Internet. One Malaysian has to stand up and making a police report against his Y1998 power abused and the video as evidence. Lets the police investigate the matter and bring him to justice!

Compared to last time, the BN was only competing with small parties - "An Elephant versus Cats" and easily won the GEs. But since 1999, BN was competing with other elephant (BR) and this "An Elephant versus An Elephant" political scenario had become a new political practice in Malaysia and will remains in future. Absolutely, this new scenario gives huge greater pressure to BN and advantages to opposite parties front or BR.

Based to this political scenario, the rulling party (BN) has to be more carefull in their policies and actions. And for opposition party (BR) they have better political opportunity. The freedom of information and interactive of world-widespread Internet has become a popular medium of political and economic discussions and interactions, supplies people with multi dimensions of information and analysis. This information medium equiped people (young and old) with a lot of information, which was not happened before.

The current protest against injustice, corrupt and power abuse government started by injustice protest in year 1998, was continued until recent protests held in Kuala Lumpur. The protests by BERSIH, HINDRAF and minor prostest by law practioners were giving politically very bad reputation to government. Dr. Mahathir's political critics against current prime minister was simply to put down Abdullah and bring up Najib Razak was also contributed to bad reputation of current government. Malaysians felt unhappy due to bad government leadership and reputation. The "An Elephant versus An Elephant" political practice which disadvantage rulling party, add by critics in world spread Internet forums, blog and news sites were making the PM party reputation worst and easily to defeat! In other way, the BR which gained big groups of professionals, muslim clerics and supporters gained better position and reputation as alternative and experimental channel to voters. This resulted to 5 states excluding Kuala Lumpur won by BR, and BN lost significant votes in Terengganu, Pahang, Negeri Sembilan, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak.

Analysis shows that if BR successfully leading 5 states with integrity, productive and supported by people, while BN remained unstable (due to lack of leadership, integrity, productivity, spirit, professionals, muslim clerics, supporters and reputation), some other states such as Terengganu, Pahang, Negeri Sembilan and Sabah will win by BR in 13th GE. Therefore the Parliament and government will dominates by BR and BN will replace to be opposition front!

Analysis also shows that Najib Razak will become new BN chairman by next year (may win competition against Abdullah as UMNO president), but is too hard to improve integrity and gain supports by professionals, muslim clerics and BN traditional supporters. Najib Razak and Anwar Ibrahim will become Y2009 Malaysian political competitors and may open new political era after Y2010. But Dr. Mahathir will remains significant as the master of puppets in BN. Or otherwise sack out Dr. Mahathir as culprit in Malaysian politics, and started new era with integrity, productivity and harmony. Y2010 will tells everything. TQ.

The KLCI was making a new history as the index was above 1350 points, and sensational because 1350 points was estimated by PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi earlier. To Malaysian it is a proud moment as the Malaysian new financial history was just achieved and written.

So far my analysis on Malaysian economy were correct, but the new history high of the KLCI was suprising me. Since the last few years, i had written about the stable GDP growth of average 5-6%. Based on the relationship of GDP and the KLCI, the GDP average growth at 5-6% will not makes the KLCI to rise to the new history high. In fact, last time when the GDP grown at 8%, the KLCI was not too booming (refer to year 1993).

By the estimated GDP growth of 5-6%, I estimated the Malaysian stocks special price performance are only influenced by the insystematical risk. But what happened presently was a beside story, it was making a new historic high caused by systematical risk!

Me myself personally knows that the KLCI is a resilient index. Since last time, getback to year 1997, the KLCI had shown high resilient to international stocks price downturn. In some cases, although the US DJIA was going down, the KLCI remained stable.. that was amazing!. I believe this scenario was fundamentally-happened because our economy was strongly affected by inside-country economy and political policies. In many ways, due to strong leadership, our policies were less independent to international issues and mechanism. If we were depending strongly to the international mechanism, i believe the KLCI will not be resilient as performed in the last 10 years.

Based on the facts that the Malaysian GDP growth was stable, and the KLCI was resilient, if nothing special was happening in the economy, the KLCI will remained stable and moves sideways. In other way, KLCI will not going down, and remained moderately high (based on fundamental)! But because something special had happened due to lower oil price, it had stimulated world economy, made DJIA exceed 13000 points (also new history high), and also stimulate KLCI to achieve new history high points!. This scenario also stimulate Malaysian Ringgit, as the Ringgit is now near RM3.20 for a US-dollar. This Ringgit performance was unexpected, as strengthening process of the Ringgit was estimated to happen slowly in longterm. In economics view, this proves that a change is much faster to happen in market (demand/supply) machanism/movement compared to fundamental changes (longterm change). This theory can explain the fast Asian currency and economy crisis in 1997.

This analysis shows that the recent new history KLCI high was not really because of Malaysian economy! My statement is true because current economy growth is not expected to get better at above 6.5-8% due to lower international oil-price. But it is a good and sensational news for calling for National Election.

Talk a little bit about politics, myself believe the National Election will held by the end of this year. Based on statistical, the KLCI is favorable, Anwar Ibrahim still cannot become an election candidate (also Keadilan has no mission), 9th Malaysian Plan is running, some mega-projects are running (Second Penang bridge, KTMB double track, Iskandar new city and etc), agriculture projects are developing (mainly MAHA) and peoples' belief in Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's leadership. But if PM Pak Lah decides to make election by next year, it is also not a big problem because KLCI is normally fluctuating (affecting investors only) and Keadilan is less relevant due to no clear missions and supports.

The international politics is more interesting as President Bush is under strong pressure to take out American soldiers from Iraq. As his term only available for less than 2 years (before coming election), his act of using Veto in US Congress and the situation in Iraq which is far from stable, the President Bush is really in big problem. As the pressures are getting bigger, the time to take out American soldiers has become crucial, he is facing a possible mega-risk of failure of his mission in controlling Iraq and Iraqi's oil. The costs of his failure are too big in term of high death of his soldiers, US-budget, US-reputation, chaos in Iraq, no-oil and worsened worldwide terrorism and instability. If the American soldiers are taking back urgently, and the situation in Iraq get worsened, the President Bust (JR) and USA are in big failure after the loss in Vietnam War.

Finally on politics, recently the Singapore Senior Minister, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew had defended the big-rise of the Singaporean ministers salaries. He said the big rise of the salaries is important to attract more smart Singaporeans to join politics and parliamentary. But what was funny is in Singapore there is no true democracy, and no true politics, no true parliament members, and of course no true policies! I believe: "Politicians are always talking rhetorics, which heard like true and patriotism, but in real there is nothing real"!

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REPORT 9 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom April 2006.

01 April 2006.

Hello Guys!,

Lists of Year 2005 World's Very-Rich Peoples (300 Billionaires). - By Forbes.com, 2006 Report.

( X-I-X ) Top Ten Lists

1.William Gates III (The big star: Bill Gates, Microsoft) � US50B

2.Warren Buffet (Fund Manager) � US42B

3.Carlos Slim (Telecom, Mexican) � US30B

4.Ingvar Kamprad (Bos IKEA, Sweedish) � US28B

5.Lakshmi Mittal (Steel, Indian) � US23.5B

8.Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Alsaud (Saudi Arabia) � US20B

10.Li Ka-shing (Various Businesses, Hong Kong) � 18.8B

( X-II-X ) Malaysian Lists

114. Robert Kuok (Ex- King of Sugar) � US5B

147. Ananda Krishnan (Binariang, Maxis etc) � US4.3B

245. Lim Goh Tong (Genting's Tauke) � US2.8B

( X-III-X ) Popular People Lists

71. George Soros (Quantum) � US7.2B

140. Steve Jobs (Apple) � US4.4B

158. Giorgio Armani � US4.1B

194. George Lucas (Star Wars) � US3.5B

245. Steven Spielberg (Movie�s Director) � US2.8B

278. Donald Trump (The Apprentice) � US2.6B

( X-IV-X ) Ranks by Continents/Countries

1. United States (AS)

2. Eropah (Majority from German and UK)

3. Asia (Majority from India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong)

4. Russia

5. Other continents (South America/Africa/Australia)

( X-V-X ) My mathematical calculation for the total World's All Population Wealth Value (Based on simple geometric and Forbes wealth report).

1) World's All Population Wealth Value = USD4,223.6 Trillion

2) Wealth Value (20% Most Riches) = USD3,378.88 Trillion

Wealth Value (20% Most Riches) - Individu = USD2.81 Million

3) Wealth Value (50% to 80% Most Riches) = USD810.9 Trillion

Wealth Value (50% to 80% Most Riches) - Individu = USD450.48 Thousand

4) Wealth Value (20% to 50% Most Riches) = USD33.79 Trillion

Wealth Value (20% to 50% Most Riches) - Individu = USD18.8 Thousand

5) Wealth Value (20% Most Poorest) = USD 54 Billion

Wealth Value (20% Most Poorest) - Individu = USD45

"Enjoy With The Analysis!"

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REPORT 8 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom Mac 2006.

29 March 2006.

Hello friends!

Just what i have commented in year 2003, the history proves that the US invaded not because of peace, but for oil and was the motive of the war. Today, the Iraqi's oil is already under USA's control in managing and controlling oil plants.

The world economy, the oil price was rising high in these recent years because of strong world demand for fuel & etc and maximization of world oil-supply. This is a fundamental issue and highly significant and powerfull in determine world economy future. Presently and for the coming years, this oil issue will fundamentally important. Basically in micro-economics the oil price is much easier to go up rather than going cheaper!

About Malaysian economy, under the PM Ahmad Badawi the annual-growth of the Malaysian economy is at average of 6% a year, which is less 2% compared to PM Mahathir's years. As an average 6% and a plus & minus of 1% deviations, it growth percent can moves down to 5% in less attractive economy, of moves to 7% in good economy situation. As the world economy is stable, and no extra elements in International economy and Malaysian economy recently, it is expected that the Malaysian economy will grow at 5% to 6% a year in 2006.

Malaysia is in progress to prepare the 9th Malaysian Economy Plan, and expected to be launched by April 2006. Hopefully, there are some extra and special elements to boost economy situation to be more attractive and booming.

About 9th Malaysian Economy Plan, there are some elements that are interesting to look into. The recent issues such as the new automobile policy (less tax), Free Trade Agreement with US, Malaysian new Bio-diesel business & products and expectation of more stronger Ringgit (expected RM3.20 at the end of 9th Malaysian Plan) are some new elements that will influence Malaysian economy fundamental, planning and future performance.

These economy new elements are expected to take sometimes before showing results.

The economy analysis shows that for the next few years, there is nothing big is expected to happen, and the economy will grow stable at 5% to 6% a year. The stock market will also affected by this national annual economic growth figure, and as the economy is expected to grow moderately, the stock market is expected to respond to this situation. The average stock market price is expected to be stable for next few years, and move volatile for shorterm. As the systematical risk is stable, traders can focus on insystematical risk which depends on individual company performance.

Commenting on international economics, international economy is a very strategic and powerfull decipline to be analyzed in economics. The international economy can be assumed as a Mother to all economies in this world! It is a mother to all national economies worldwide. All nations are affected by the changes of this mother-economy. Also, in fact, only big economies and strong strategic issues such as international politics can affect the mother-economy performance!

In fact, this mother-economy performance is normally affected by US Economy. The US economy is influenced by US Presidency Policies, the Congress, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the US business communities. The US business communities are normally economy pro-active players, modern and innovative businesses. Based on the world-billionaires list report by Forbes.com, many of the billionaires are American compared to other continents/countries.

The US President and the presidency are the most powerfull institutional influence to the US national political and economy policies and therefore affecting the mother-economy! Based on my report 2 and 5 (u can scroll down, to read the report) in year 2001 and 2002, I was expected that the President George Bush will be the "dark-element" to the future of international economy and politics around the world, and it is now proven! The President Bush, which is a hard-politics president, and fails to understand the economy has affected the world politics "cloudy" & unstable, and the slower economy activities. Compared to US previous president, President Clinton was more supportive in politics and economy developments, and proven to be more friendly and contributing in economy and politics worldwide.

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REPORT 7 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom March 2003.

19 March 2003.

Today, the whole world is waiting the invade by US on Iraq. As mentioned last year President Bush words and warnings had expected to be a real risk to international political and economy scenario.

For sure the world is not agree with US intention for the invade on Iraq. The United Nation (UN), with strong opposition from Veto-members, have rise their view for no support for US-led war on Iraq.

The main reason for war and the war itself is a President Bush retaliation for his father political defeat to President Saddam Hussein. The President Bush intention to "take-in" the Mr. Collin Powel, which was the highest US-army General as the US-state secretary, before he won the election, is actually an early indication of President Bush intention for military actions, if he is in power. And today, the mysterious question has become reality, as Iraq is his main target for his military action.

The war on terrorism and war on Afghanistan were not the main target for President Bush, while he was just in power. It actually a strategic retaliation by US after the 11'September tragedy. And what worse is the war-on-terrorism itself is a new medium to gain support for attacking Iraq.

Other reason for the attack is the "power and influence" of US Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA. CIA is US state intelligence think-tank for US strategic plans. Based on history, US-president and CIA were biased to Israel's interests. And just like old days, the CIA and the US-president have again shown their absolute support for Israel's current and future interests.

Oil-economy and War-economy have become the next CIA priorities for the war.Oil-economy is very important to US as a largest and most powerfull economy in the world. As oil is important as a main source of energy, it is strategic for US to ensure the stability of the oil-supply to US. The very small oil-reserve in US and political instability in middle-east are threatens to US interests, mainly the US-economy.

The war-economy has changed the meaning of the war itself. Yes, the war bring destructions to the people and assets, but in other hand it bring a lucrative business to dominant countries, like US. Although US will spend US$100million for this Iraq-war, but it actually just a small cost to US military industries and the "indirect effect in dollar" to US economy from the war!

The world political and economy situations are changing? It is good or bad? Let's think about it!

Thank You.

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REPORT 6 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom October 2002.

25 October 2002 .

In Malaysia, the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange is monopolized by the institutional traders. It also means most of the profit in KLSE trading are monopolized by the foreign traders. This leave the Malaysian investors with higher risk. And also push-back the average return to lower level.

This is not a favorable condition to the Malaysian parties, and remaining the Malaysian markets to the foreign interest and volatility.

Malaysian Government and Markets Regulators must improve the investors' intelligence via Research & Sophisticated Knowledge-basis trading practice

This is a good step towards more sophisticated analysis & trading system in future, using The Artificial Intelligence. Hundreds and hundreds of variables are analyzed using supercomputer, and they have done a good job and have getting a good result from the technology.

In future only the intelligent and technology know-how parties will become the 10% and will monopolized the 90% world-wide wealth.

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REPORT 5 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom September 2002.

25 September 2002: Index Composite = 652.41 (-10.07) marks. .

Today Economics .

Hello everybody.

Sept'11 was a bad dream to Americans. And it had happened under President Bush administration period. Like his father, both Bush, bring volatile to international politic and economy. It is something contract to President Clinton administration policies and period performance.

President Bush personally had expressed his opinion on international politic and war, in the early of year-2002. I personally believe, that his words of his stand on the international politic and war issues are the most important information to analyze and explain, also forecast today and future politic, economy and stocks performance. At least for 3 years, which within his administration period.

How big is the priority for his words?. The weightage is believed as big!.

Like his father's period, today period is a volatile phase to politic and economy. As the stock market which is more sensitive and passive compared to real economy, it is believed stock market will continue with strong volatility.

Market volatility is due to stable economy condition, and shorterm responsive. No strong trend is believed, and while international economy (GDP) is moving slow, with more restriction to economy stimulation, it can pull the economy lower and passive, in longer-time.

The market will drastically changed if President Bush change his mind. And adopt policies such as in President Clinton era.

As the changes of American political decision is impossible, stock market for today and coming years will not become a heaven to portfolio investors.

The market will continue risky. The market will stimulated by market effects, such as January effect, but just for temporary.

The best strategy is to focus on portfolio with various financial products.

Thank You.

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REPORT 4 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom Mei 2002.

28 Mei 2002: Index Composite = 761.30 marks. .

The Malaysian economy gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2nd Quarter, year 2002 has announced by Bank Negara. The GDP growth is 1.1%. This is a positive growth after technical recession in Quarter 3 & 4, year 2001. .

KLCI has performed good in 1st Quarter although economy has performed slow. KLCI has increased by more 30% compare to end-Dis, 2001 level of 696.09 points.

Technically, Composite index Major-trend has moved volatile after Asia-economy-crisis of 97. A big downmove in 1998 which devaluation of Composite index of more than 1000 points to around 200 point level, has made Composite index volatile before reaching the fair-value. Is believed, the Composite index is still volatile but relatively stable compare to Composite index volatility in 1998 to 2000. Technically, the Composite index is synchronous with economy performance.

Shorterm (Minor Trend) KLCI-OUTLOOK dated 30052002: Stochastic shows Composite index is oversold (below 30), and will make a rebounce. But the rebounce is believed to be temporary. The longer term outlook is, the Composite index will down more to lower. World political issues, mainly a war threaten between two nuclear-weapon countries, India-Pakistan will make World stock indices lower.

Major Trend KLCI-OUTLOOK dated 30052002: Major trend for KLCI is still bullish. The current downward of minor-trend is believed as correction. The Composite Index will move up again after the correction phase.

Composite index will achieve 900 points at the end of 2002? I personally have written a possibility of Composite index reaching 900 points level on end-Disember, 2002. Read the previous comments. Recently, many worldwide analysts have shown a similar view for Composite index. Foreign analyst from Merryl Lynch, Morgan Stanley etc, have view a possiblility of Composite index to reach 910 to 930 points at the end of year 2002.

I personally have changed my mind. I believe, Composite index will not reach 900 points level this year! It is impossible!.

From my calculation, the Composite index will go higher than 890 points if the GDP growth exceed 5%(Too optimistic!).

Below is the table for possible Composite index level:

Msia GDP growth (0%) - KLCI (740 points),

Msia GDP growth (3%) - KLCI (810 points),

Msia GDP growth (4%) - KLCI (850 points),

Msia GDP growth (5%) - KLCI (890 points).

Thank You.

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REPORT 3 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom April 2002.

12 April 2002: Index Composite = 776.21 marks. .

We predict (November 2001 - below) the KLCI will reach near 900 marks, by this year. This is consistent with our prediction for Malaysia economic growth at 4%. Many foreign analysts believed this number is possible for Malaysia. Collectively, the current year growth is around 3.5% (Bank Negara) to 4%. .

The Malaysian economy growth rate is believed to consistent with world economic growth. If the World growth is zero, the Malaysian growth will near zero or Negative. The Malaysian GDP growth contributed by the internal economy is believed to become zero if World growth is very small, because the market for Malaysian economy internally is small and difficult to expand. An active world economy will increase import and GDP for Malaysia.

Composite Index will remained positive as world economy remained positive, reflecting Malaysian economy. But it is threatened by slow economy growth, and possible to bring Composite Index to negative growth or volatile.

Investors are advised to be more carefully and focused on timing strategy as the KLCI is possible to continue to increase.

Thank You.

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REPORT 2 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom August 2001.

20 November 2001 : KLSE- Composite index is getting to the level before the September'11. Macroeconomically, Malaysian economy is waiting for improvement in global economy. Global economy for the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2001, are expected to be slow because of the event of Sept,11 in US. But the low shrinking of 3rd Quarter GDP of US, showing that the US economy is very resilience. It's believed that starting by November 2001, US economy, Tigers' economy and global economy will starting to rebounce. This is also will including Malaysian economy and stock market.

Although Malaysian economy is stabil, but the increamental in fuel prices and bonus giving (Budget 2002)will influence the market in intermediate term. The stock market will slow after the budget day, and started to increased if the price of goods are also increasing. The inflation is expected to increase in intermediate term. Overall, the inflation is undercontrol.

For longterm (2002), the stock market performance will depend to Malaysian economy. As the Malaysian economy growth is expected at least 4%, the stock market is believed to reach 900 points but difficult to achieve 1000 points. Thank You.

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