RRBL Franchise Draft: Part One of The Master Plan
Posted March 10, 2005

It could certainly be argued that there isn’t much merit to the pretentious title above. Despite all of my annual preparation, I haven’t shown much in the way of delivering on my fantasy baseball potential. Year after year I have a sensational draft, snagging the right young players at low prices and picking up solid players for middling prices who wind up winning awards (see Roger Clemens in 2004). But, you see, none of this has mattered. Every year I’ve been plagued by injuries, burned by “stars,” and have been too hesitant to pull the trigger on trades that could send me over the top. (I hate dealing away young, cheap talent with longer contracts to get an expensive star for a year). But this year is different. I’m going to keep my eyes open, my brain working, and not be afraid to make a deal if I really think I have a chance. With all of this in mind, I digress into the RRBL Franchise Draft 2005.

The 59 players to be auctioned off (and perhaps kept by their previous owners) were auctioned in order of their 2004 salaries, highest to lowest. Thus we started with Rockies first baseman Todd Helton. You know, I’ve constantly read in respected fantasy publications that the first few players and the last few players in a fantasy draft often go for far less than they should. I’ve also read that when drafting in an auction, you should pay close attention to trends; you know, see which owners like certain kinds of players, which positions are more scarce, which positions are being sold at a premium, that kind of thing.

Helton started off the draft contrary to the above theory, going for a fair $30. The next player to be auctioned was mine: Vlad Guerrero, and I was scared. I knew I pretty much needed to retain Vladimir no matter the cost because he’s so valuable in every category except for steals. Fortunately he went for only $29, about $10 less than I would’ve paid for his awesomeness. This started a pretty successful franchise draft for me. I would go on to also grab a frontline starter in Josh Beckett ($20), a solid catching option in Mike Lieberthal ($4), retain a midrange rotation filler in Kevin Millwood ($7), and get a potential slugger (if his back holds up) in Mike Sweeney ($3). All of this looks pretty good for me, if I must say so myself (and I must). Before I go on to some surprises from the draft, let me update my roster:

C - Lieberthal, PHI $4
1B - Teixeira, TEX $18
3B - Huff, TB $10
2B - Cintron, ARI $4
SS - Berroa, KC $14
OF - Guerrero, ANA $29
OF - Kearns, CIN $12
OF - Bradley, LA $9
UT - Sweeney, KC $3
P - Beckett, FLA $20
P - Clement, BOS $16
P - Vazquez, ARI $13
P - Harden, OAK $8
P - Millwood, CLE $7
P - Looper, NYM $1
P - Isringhausen, STL $12

*remaining spots to fill: 1 C, 1 CI, 1 MI, 2 OF, 1 UT, 2 P
*remaining to spend: $72

I must say the draft seemed a bit erratic. Some players went for much more than expected, while others were highly undervalued. I know this usually happens, but not so much in our franchise player draft. The big swing in player values usually happens closer to the end of our free agent draft, when many owners are taken out of the equation because of full rosters or a lack of cap room. Among the overpriced (according to me):

-Billy Wagner, RP PHI, $24 (Pigeons): Wagner is always hurt. I know he’s a dominant closer when healthy, but that when has become a huge factor. There are always plenty of closing options for a fantasy owner, and many of them would’ve been more prudent.

-Albert Pujols, 1B STL, $39 (Durham Bulls): Okay, this one is with clenched teeth. Albert Pujols is awesome, and if you’re going to spend $39 on a fantasy player, this is one of the ones to do it on. I’m just saying that’s a huge chunk out of the $260 cap.

-Carlos Beltran, OF NYM, $39 (Bolivar White Rats): This is sort of the same as the Pujols case. Beltran is a spectacular fantasy baseball player (notably more valuable than in real life due to the steals) and this salary is acceptable, but it’s just a LOT of money.

-Keith Foulke, RP BOS, $26 (The Dogs): Man! Closers are certainly going for a ton this year. It makes me glad I have mine already locked up. Foulke is a very good guy to have, but $26 is a lot for a closer, especially one who won’t really contribute much in the way of strikeouts.

-Richie Sexson, 1B SEA, $14 (Team Carr): I kind of hope I’m wrong about this one. I really loved owning Sexson when I did, but he’s a power hitter with a shoulder problem who just signed with a team whose ballpark is nothing short of cavernous. His strikeout totals are always alarming anyway, but the injury and new team could push him past the point of redeeming himself with homers.

-Dave Roberts, OF SD, $21 (Slybirds): Dave Roberts. He used to play in the Japanese leagues and now he’s busy making a lot of money not really doing anything productive. I know he can potentially have a lot of fantasy value if he plays due to his stolen bases, but he’ll never contribute anywhere else. This is why steals should be changed to something like OBP in our league:

Player A: .254, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 38 BB in 319 AB, sold for $21
Player B: .298, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 88 BB in 584 AB, sold for $15

Player A is Roberts, player B is Hideki Matsui. It’s pretty ludicrous that Roberts went for more, but I guess tha’s the nature of fantasy baseball. In a way this kind of discrepancy is kind of fun, anyway.

-Adam Dunn, OF CIN, $26 (Big Bashers): Holy crap! The Big Bashers are under new ownership this season, and are apparently very willing to pay for home runs. They must be, because Dunn hit .266 a year ago, with no speed. All he did right (and it is worth a fair price) was pound 46 homers out of various MLB parks last season. Somewhere in the $17-$20 neighborhood would’ve felt more comfortable for a guy like Dunn.

Now we move on to some potential bargains:

-Gary Sheffield, OF NYY, $19 (The Dogs): I was actually the high bidder on Sheffield, but the Dogs wisely chose to retain him for $19. I certainly didn’t set out looking to pick up Sheffield, but a hitter of his caliber, although he might be overrated, should be $5 or $10 more expensive than this. He should have another solid year in 2005.

-Chipper Jones, OF ATL, $16 (TV Sex): Chipper hit .248 last season, but who cares? He finished strong and still has a decent amount of power. I’d bet he’ll rebound and have a really nice season, nothing spectacular, but he’ll be worth more than $16.

-Eric Chavez, 3B OAK, $20 (TV Sex): Tom Smith of TV Sex prevails again! He matched the $20 to keep Chavez, who is usually around a $20 player. The thing is, Chavez (although limited by some injuries) learned to hit lefties last season, and still killed righties. If he stays healthy, I’m thinking he’ll have a monstrous year and make a run at the AL MVP. I’m thinking he’ll be a $30+ player in 2005.

-Rafael Palmeiro, 1B BAL, $1 (TV Sex): Okay, so Rafael isn’t going to do many productive things in 2005. He’ll probably hit .240 and see his power continue to decline, but hey, 20 homers for $1 isn’t such a bad deal.

-Hideki Matsui, OF NYY, $15 (Bolivar White Rats): If Matsui duplicates his 2004 season, that’s $15 very, very well spent. He’s becoming a solid fantasy player who could have a couple more .290-25-100 seasons in him. Still, he’s not quite Godzilla so much as maybe Pikachu.

-Ken Griffey Jr., OF CIN, $12 (St. Louis 69ers): It’s time for me to be bold. This year Griffey stays healthy and gets 480 or so at bats. He won’t be Griffey circa 1999, but he’ll hit .275 with 35 homers. Yeah, that’s right. That $12 will look like a complete bargain at the end of the season. Someone will pay $22 for him next year and he’ll come apart at the hinges, cementing the fact that Ken Griffey Jr. may be the most frustrating baseball player in history. He could’ve been the best ever. Lord knows I thought so when I was 12.

All things considered, I’m excited about the upcoming free agent draft on March 20. There are sure to be many overpriced duds, bargains, and mentions of stupid moves from years gone by (I once paid $23 for Jose Cruz Jr.). Now I’m off to call Angel Berroa and see if he wants to not be terrible this season…