NL Central

Previewing the NL Central
Posted February 28, 2005

This should come as no surprise to anyone. Bolstered by a lineup that is perhaps the game's best, and every bit as solid as it was last season (visit this page for reference), St. Louis also has decent depth with capable back-ups: the unspectacular but steady veteran catcher Einar Diaz, outfielders Roger Cedeno and So Taguchi, utility player John Mabry (2004: .296-13-40 in 240 AB), as well as a few infielders battling for a job in Spring Training, including Abraham Nunez, Wilton Guerrero (his brother is the third best right-handed hitter in baseball), and 25-year-old Hector Luna, who showed occasional signs of promise in 2004, but may spend 2005 in AAA.

Returning starters Chris Carpenter, Matt Morris, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan will be joined by new acquisition Mark Mulder (formerly of the Oakland Athletics as one of the Big Three), who will anchor the staff. All four of the returning starters experienced career years in 2004 aside from Morris, who can hardly be expected to do much worse (15-10, 4.72 ERA). Seeing as none of those five pitchers are older than 30, it is a safe bet that their respective primes are in front of them (again, with the possible exception of Morris, who won 22 games in 2001 but is nowhere near the same pitcher now). The X-factor is southpaw Rick Ankiel, who started his major league career as 20-year-old phenom in 1999, continuing to a successful rookie season in 2000, and then forgetting how to throw a strike in the 2000 playoffs. Ankiel is 25-years-old now, but still has the talent to pitch well at the major league level, and will likely get a shot at the rotation while Morris recovers from off-season shoulder surgery. If he does well there, the starting rotation will be good enough to get the team back to the World Series.

Closer Jason Isringhausen (tied for the NL lead with 47 saves in 2004) is a good, if not great weapon at the back end of the bullpen, and after a recent contract extension, he will remain on the Cards at least through 2007. Julian Tavarez and Ray King form an effective righty-lefty tandem and should hold leads in the seventh and eighth for Isringhausen. Cal Eldred remains as a reliable long relief option, and if Mike Lincoln is healthy, the bullpen has a number of quality arms to choose from. Don't count out 27-year-old Jimmy Journell (once considered the Cardinals' best pitching prospect) from clinching a spot, either.

It's simple. No one in the division is as well-balanced as the Redbirds. They combine an explosive lineup, a steady starting rotation, and a serviceable bullpen equipped with one of the better closers in the league to create a certain recipe of doom for Central rivals.

Does anyone actually like Sammy Sosa? I'm pretty sure no one ever did, aside from the idiots at Wrigley Field, and now even they have turned their backs on him. Despite his obvious offensive decline, trading him away in return for prospects and Jerry Hairston Jr. didn't do much for an outfield that also lost 834-year-old Moises Alou. Replacing Sosa with Jeromy Burnitz isn't going to do the trick, either, as its highly unlikely that Burnitz will even match Sosa's production from last season. There isn't a lot of good things to say about the Cubs outfield, although Corey Patterson is certainly a talented young player. However, his .734 OPS tells the whole story; he has miles to go before becoming a legitimate middle of the order threat, and he certainly doesn't draw enough walks to bat in the first two slots. For the Cubs outfield to be anything but mediocre at best, they'll need a good deal of luck. However, they are solid in the infield, with Aramis Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Todd Walker, and Derrek Lee. Catcher Michael Barrett had a nice season offensively as well in 2004. Still, it's hard to imagine Chicago's offense not being set back a little.

Why will they finish second? The same reason they were supposed to finish first last year, and even (gulp), win the World Series according to Sports Illustrated. They have what is perhaps the most complete pitching staff in the National League. Although they lost Matt Clement to the Red Sox, they still feature Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, and Greg Maddux. Wood and Prior are young, awesome, and really intimidating. If they are healthy this year, and that's a big if, they can combine for 40 wins and 500 strike outs. Zambrano had an excellent 2004, and is just 23. Maddux is Maddux. Any team would take Maddux as a fourth starter. If these four guys do what they're capable of doing this season, even the deplorable state of the outfield won't stop them from improving on their 2004 season, where they played so bad down the stretch both of their TV announcers quit. That's impressive.

This excellent pitching does not extend to the bullpen. After trading Kyle Farnsworth, I'm not sure they even have any pitchers with live arms down there anymore. LaTroy Hawkins has had his moments, but he's shown he can't handle being a closer. Joe Borowski was just awful (the baseball Gods evened the score with him after he saved 33 games in 2003). Mike Remlinger is a respectable left-handed option, but he's a health concern. The fact is, the Cubs' bullpen is so thin someone named Todd Wellemeyer had to appear in 20 games, and someone named Jon Leicester was one of their more reliable relievers. Until they find a dependable closer, the bullpen must be considered a chaotic mess that will help only to take away from the success of the starting pitching.

It's official. The Cubs are now baseball's most pathetic team since the Red Sox finally put an end to their World Series woes. I see no reason why that won't continue, but like it or not, they have starting pitching most teams could only dream about, and a solid core of infielders. That will be good enough for second place in the NL Central in 2005.

Seriously. Do you
know who this is?

Unlike the Cardinals, the Astros really did have their offense significantly worsened over the off-season. They lost their most intimidating post-season hitter (mid-season rental Carlos Beltran), their monster-truck washing second baseman (Jeff Kent), and drag-queen extraordinaire Lance Berkman for an undisclosed amount of time due to a flag football injury. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are getting unbelievably old, and they can no longer carry an offense, which they will basically need to do in 2005. Morgan Ensberg and Adam Everett scare no one, and catcher Brad Ausmus had a worse 2004 than Mike Matheny. If Berkman returns to the lineup relatively early in the season, they may find a way to compete, but as things stand right now offensively, I don't see how they will win over 90 games at the most.

On the bright side, they did manage to persuade Roger Clemens to continue his major league career another year with the biggest arbitration salary ever. He probably won't win another Cy Young (which would give him eight in his career), but he's not bad, either. He teams up with Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte to form an imposing but injury-riddled trio that will certainly be decent at the least. If Brandon Backe and Pete Munro are thrust into the fourth and fifth spots, though, the quality certainly drops off drastically. Backe showed good poise, but I can't see him being more than a four in even the least impressive rotations.

Aside from closer Brad Lidge, the Astros' bullpen leaves much to be desired. The bullpen was so bad in the 2004 post-season, in fact, that brainy manager Phil Garner brought in Lidge to pitch two innings three nights in a row against St. Louis in the NLCS. The bullpen consists of stand outs such as Chad Harville, Chad Qualls (Chad & Chad), Dan Wheeler, and lefty Mike Gallo. The only reason this bullpen is in better shape than the Cubs' is because their closer is amazing. Brad Lidge struck out an astounding 157 batters against only 30 walks in 94.2 innings of work in 2004, holding hitters to a .174 batting average while he was at it. Somehow, even with these ridiculous stats, he managed to blow 4 saves out of the 33 chances he got after taking over the role when Octavio Dotel was traded to the A's. I have a hard time believing he will be quite as dominant in 2005, simply because no closer ever has back-to-back years of striking out 15 batters per nine innings. I think he will do a good job for sure, but the more Houston relies on him as the only weapon in the 'pen, the shorter his career becomes.

I really think this year's Astros are not much better than a .500 team. They were a .500 team last year for a long time, and then caught fire at the end to barely squeak into the playoffs. The bottom tier of the division just isn't ready to overtake them yet, although the gap is narrowing, as you'll see below.

Jeff Kent took his toothbrush mustache to
L.A. for the 2005 season.

A frightening returning core of outfielders and a few key off-season transactions have allowed the Reds to take a step forward in the baseball world. If anything, they have too much depth in the outfield if everyone can stay healthy, which has not even come close to happening before. Everyone knows about Griffey and his injuries, but right fielder Austin Kearns has been just as much of a lock for the DL as Griffey; the two of them form what is quite possibly the most awesome 1-2 DL punch in the game. Adam Dunn, if nothing else, is monstrously powerful, and if he can cut back on his strike outs (195 in 2004), he will emerge as one of the best power hitters in the game. Even if he strikes out another 200 times in 2005, I expect him to approach 50 home runs easily. Wily Mo Pena showed a great deal of promise as a budding slugger (26 home runs in 336 AB), and at just 23, he should get better with each passing season. The infield is not as intimidating, but with the signing of former Royal Joe Randa to man third base (a gaping hole since the departure of Aaron Boone) for the year, it should be solid. Sean Casey lacks the ideal power of a first basemen, but the outfield should make up for it. D'Angelo Jimenez had a nice little season in 2004, and he returns to play second. Barry Larkin's retirement leaves a vacancy at short, but if the Reds were all that concerned about it they could have brought Barry back for another season; he had second thoughts about retiring, after all. Ryan Freel can play anywhere, and he will be a capable back up if any injuries are sustained.

Of course, Cincinnati's problem in recent years has always been pitching. Even with Paul Wilson's very respectable season, the starting rotation just didn't have the ability to keep the Reds in the running for contention. While they aren't good enough to take the division by storm this year, there's definite improvement, and as mentioned above, the gap is narrowing. Landing Eric Milton will go a long way to stabilizing the rotation, and fellow newcomer Ramon Ortiz is a likely candidate as a starter as well. Those two will be joined with the likes of veteran Paul Wilson and youngsters Jose Acevedo, Aaron Harang, and possibly Brandon Claussen. It isn't the Chicago Cubs, but it's better than last year.

The bullpen is also improved, having added journeyman reliever David Weathers, southpaw Kent Mercker (he did better last year with the Cubs than you think), and Ben Weber, who had a horrible '04 but in previous seasons was quite an effective reliever. Ryan Wagner proved to be an able arm as well. Danny Graves returns as a serviceable closer, solidifying what should be a very respectable bullpen.

Depending on how the Astros handle their roster changes, I expect the Reds to be only a few games separated from finishing in the top half of the division. As is usually the case, much depends on the health of oft-injured outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns, both of which are laden with talent and can change the entire complexion of the lineup when in it.

Taking a shot at Griffey has become too easy for me
to even bother.

Am I allowed to say I like the direction this team is going in? Would that ostracize me from my fellow baseball fans? Oh, well. Milwaukee has a nice youth movement going on, and it might even start working soon. After trading stolen base champ Scott Podsednik for someone who can hit (Carlos Lee), the outfield looks respectable. Lee will take his 152 career home runs to Milwaukee, where he will play alongside of Geoff Jenkins and probably Brady Clark, although there are some whispers about speedy youngster Dave Krynzel getting a chance at center field. The left side of the infield is up for grabs, but the right side appears set. First baseman Lyle Overbay had an awesome season in his first with the Brewers, and Junior Spivey should be healthy and ready to play second, if Rickie Weeks doesn't win the job. There is an all-out battle at third between Wes Helms (so far hearing praises such as "not as fat"), Jeff Cirillo (last seen successful in this uniform), and Russell Branyan. Prospect J.J. Hardy very well may get the opportunity to play short. The off-season acquisition of catcher Damian Miller will help fortify the lineup, too.

While Milwaukee doesn't have a deep starting rotation, they do have a clear ace. Ben Sheets realized his potential in '04, and with strike out to walk numbers of 264 to 32, it's hard to believe it wasn't for real. Lefty Doug Davis was a very solid number two. After that, look for Victor Santos, Chris Capuano, and perhaps Wes Obermueller or Ben Hendrickson to round out the rotation. Prized prospect Jose Capellan is probably not ready for the staff just yet.

Trading Danny Kolb will hurt the bullpen, and acquiring Ricky Bottalico isn't the answer, even with Ricky's relatively successful 2004 with the Mets. While Capellan doesn't figure to be a starter yet, he might land a bullpen job. Mike Adams had a very impressive rookie season for the Brewers, and should get a shot at the closer spot. Also returning is Jeff Bennett, who is just 24 and should have another solid year. While there are plenty of young arms to vie for spots in the 'pen, there's no doubt Milwaukee needs to choose someone who can shut out the opposition in the ninth inning the way Kolb did in 2004 before it can be considered anything but a weakness.

As they slowly integrate their top prospects into the major league team, the Brewers should get better and better in the next few seasons. Currently, their pitching staff is still rather pedestrian after Ben Sheets, and that alone should keep them from taking off in 2005. However, this is not a team to be taken lightly. A revolution for the annual floor mats of the NL Central has begun.

There are some things I like about the Pirates, but that doesn't change the fact that they do impress me the least of all the NL Central teams, as evidenced by the fact that I have picked them to finish last. Their offense is simply too sluggish, and I don't mean in terms of speed. They lost their most dependable player in Jason Kendall via a trade with Oakland in order to address other weaknesses. The result is plenty of question marks in the everyday lineup. Jason Bay (2004 NL Rookie of the Year), newcomer Matt Lawton, and feisty little Tike Redman will make up the outfield. While all three figure to have pretty decent seasons in 2005, you wouldn't build your offense around them. Even Bay, who appears to be on his way to a great major league career, will have to improve if he is to set him self apart in the middle of the order. The infield is equally unspectacular. I know shortstop Jack Wilson had 201 hits in '04, but I don't see him doing it again, and even if he does, he doesn't draw enough walks or have enough power to warrant batting him high in the order. First baseman Craig Wilson is a mediocre hitter with good power, but he has yet to prove he can stay effective over the course of an entire season as an every day player. While second baseman Jose Castillo showed good potential, I'm not particularly impressed with the third base tag-team of Ty Wigginton and Rob Mackowiak. After trading Kendall their most probable option at catcher is Benito Santiago, and I think further elaboration is not necessary.

One thing I will say for the starting rotation: Oliver Perez is quite good. He is just 23-years-old, and his 2004 season (12-10, 2.98 ERA) was no fluke. His control still leaves something to be desired, but his stuff is nasty, and he's only going to get better. I wouldn't bet on him winning a lot more than the 12 games he did last year with the offense he has to support him, though. Fellow left-hander Mark Redman (acquired in the Kendall trade) will deepen the rotation, and no one doubts Kip Wells' stuff. Josh Fogg, the probable fourth starter, has plenty of doubters regarding his stuff (namely me), but I suppose he's not bad for eating innings. The fifth spot is open for grabs, but if you're a Pirates fan, I'd pray Ryan Vogelsong doesn't get it.

I also have very little good things to say about a bullpen that featured Jose Mesa as the closer in 2004. I don't care that he saved 43 games; he's old, inconsistent, and if you look at his yearly stats, you can probably see he's due for another 6.50 ERA this season. Young lefty Mike Gonzalez looked awesome, but the same cannot be said for fellow southpaws John Grabow, Mike Johnston, and Dave Williams, who seem mediocre at best. Right-handers Salomon Torres and Brian Meadows were good in '04, but both of them are guilty of overachieving just a bit. The same could be said for the entire bullpen, which is unlikely to be so amazingly good that it can make up for the offense.

While the quality of lower teams in the NL Central should indeed be improved in 2005, I don't expect the Pirates to factor into any race at any time. They have a few cornerstone young players (Bay, Perez), but they leave too much to be desired elsewhere, and are my choice for the cellar dwelling team of the division in the upcoming season.

It's true. Some Canadians really
can play baseball.