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Saturn occultation by the Moon well observed in Europe on Nov. 3: pictures by Füger and Brückner (also Jupiter & Saturn on the same evening), a gallery and a story by Brinkmann. Some results from the Titania occultation (see Update # 228 story 4) have now been published by ObsPM and also by E. Brochard. More aurorae, this time on Nov. 5/6: gallery, Nebraska Journal Star, SPIEGEL (früher), RP. Cluster satellites were affected: ESA Science News. Still more aurorae on Nov. 19/20: gallery. And on Nov. 24: gallery. "Inverse" solar wind discovered: ESA Science News, CNN, NZ, RP, SPIEGEL. A new Homepage for the annular eclipse in December. A Catalog of Eclipse Cycles. And Science@NASA and Wired on Light Pollution.

Update # 230 of November 27, 2001, at 19:00 UTC Posted in part from the Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory in South Korea

The Leonids storm again - and twice! / Heavy damage to Super-K neutrino telescope / VLTI Milestone! / New NASA boss / Exoplanet's atmosphere probed

Up to 55 Leonids per minute, ZHR around 4000, reported for 2nd peak This time the global analysis of the Leonids storm is not proceeding as fast as in 1999 or 2000, but the general trend is clear. Based on 38 observers around the world, the International Meteor Organization has concluded on Nov. 20 (and again on Nov. 26) that "the strongest peak observed is around 18h20min UT which was suitably situated for the observers in East Asia and Australia. The rates during this peak reached more then 2800 meteors per hour. This is well below the theoretically predicted peak levels which were around 5000 according to Lyytinen/Nissinen/van Flaudern or 8000 in Asher/McNaught's model. As far as the first peak, observed from America, is concerned rates were between 1000 and 1500 meteors per hour. However there is still not enough data reported from it especially about the time after 11 UT." Separate Japanese and American calculations for several observers meanwhile hint at maximum ZHR values of 2500 at 10:40-11:10 and of up to 5000 at 18:10-18:20 UTC. And an IAU Circular from Nov. 19 had earlier reported - based on only a handful of observers - that there was "a peak around Nov. 18.43 UT [10:20 UTC] with perhaps 5-15 Leonids per minute; there is some indication that this peak extended to about Nov. 18.46" [11:00 UTC] and was 1/2 to 1 hour later than predicted. "Rates continued at an elevated level of a couple to several Leonids per minute during Nov. 18.5-18.7" [12:00-17:00 UTC], and there was a peak rate of 55 Leonids per minute over 10 minutes at Nov. 18.764 [18:20 UTC], while "4-6 Leonids per second were visible around maximum [...] This second peak occurred close to the times predicted by Lyytinen et al. and by McNaught and Asher, based on ejection from 55P four revolutions ago." The global analysis is continuing ... Posted on Nov. 20 Leonids peak twice at storm level, 'Asian' peak even higher than first The second peak of the 2001 Leonids is now history, too - and it seems to have been at least as dramatic as the first one. Observers in Asia could see amazing Earth-grazing meteors & fireballs when the Leo radiant rose, meteor rates of 25 to 40 per minute for several minutes (and at least 5 per minute for hours) and many fireballs, some leaving wonderful persistent trains. The maximum Zenithal Hourly Rate reached is still controversial, but values in the 4000 range look the most reliable at this moment. The peak time was about 18:20-30 UTC, and the time of the earlier peak indeed about 10:35 UTC (with a max. ZHR of some 2200, according to experienced Dutch observers): The predictions by Lyytinen & al. thus seem to have been the most precise ones, followed by McNaught & Asher's, while the other two models were worse. Posted on Nov. 18 First storm peak materializes over U.S., 2000 meteors/hour reported According to the first reports coming in thru dedicated mailing lists, there was a huge peak of Leonids activity around roughly 10:30 UTC on Nov. 18 when observers throughout the U.S. could see up to 20 meteors per minute. This would correspond, with the usual corrections, to a Zenithal Hourly Rate of 2000 or more, clearly storm level. The reports also stress that many of the meteors were quite bright. So far reality may be compatible with the first three models discussed below, while the 4th one is increasingly unlikely now. The 2nd peak expected 8 hours after the first could yield a winner ... Posted on Nov. 10 Expect 7000+ Leonids per hour, (some) experts agree With the 2001 return of the Leonids approaching fast, the discrepancies between four detailled models that had become evident this summer (see Update # 227) have not been resolved at all. All of the models have been published in great detail in the literature now: Two of them predict a major meteor storm of 7000 to 9000 meteors per hour over Eastern Asia and Australia, together with a lesser outburst over America, one predicts nice storms over both America and the Far East - and one sees just one very extended maximum of activity that barely reaches storm level (if defined as 1000 meteors/hour) over the Pacific Ocean. All four models are firmly based on the existence of dust trails, created by the parent comet during every perihelion passage, which have permitted successful predictions of the Leonids storm of 1999 (see Update #158) and of the general activity profile in 2000 (Update #210). But efforts to further improve the modelling have been moving into different directions, with the resulting predictions for 2001 diverging to a surprising degree. And it's not just the strengths of the maxima that differ between the models, also the times of the maxima are no longer identical for different approaches. On November 19 we will know who did the best job: An outburst or small storm over America plus a big storm over Asia & Australia is the prediction by the celebrated theoreticians who had re-discovered the dust trail idea in 1999. Robert McNaught & David Asher are now including aging effects of the dust trails, reducing the strengths of the maxima somewhat. Here are their predictions (the time of the maximum on Nov. 18, how many revolutions the respective dust trail is old, the expected maximum Zenithal Hourly Rate, and for how many minutes before or after the peak the rate will be still at least half the maximum value): 9:55 UTC | 7 rev. | max. 800 | ±45 m 17:24 UTC | 9 rev. | max. 2000 | ±65 m 18:13 UTC | 4 rev. | max. 8000 | ±35 m The two maxima around 18 UTC will overlap and cause a maximum overall rate of some 9000 around 18:10 UTC, twice as high as during the 1999 storm. But the 10 UT maximum won't reach storm level any more in this model. Esko Lyytinen et al. are worried primarily about the role of non-gravitational forces on the orbits of the dust trails which can also cause significant shifts of the times of the maxima. They predict: 10:28 UTC | 7 rev. | max. 2000 | ±29 m 18:03 UTC | 9 rev. | max. 2600 | ±31 m 18:20 UTC | 4 rev. | max. 5000 | ±21 m Again the last two maxima will overlap, generating a combined peak ZHR of about 7200, just before 18:20 UTC. And the Americas could still hope for a small storm, albeit at only half the strength of the 1999 event. A bigger storm over the Americas than over Asia is the prediction by Peter Jenniskens who has drastically revised his forecasts for 2001 and 2002 repeatedly since mid-2000. He sees evidence (disputed by others) that some of the dust trails have shifted towards the Sun, which would not affect the times but the relative strengths of the 2001 maxima: 10:09 UTC | 7 rev. | max. 4200 | ±20 m 17:08 UTC | 9 rev. | max.1800 | ±37 m 17:21 UTC | 11 rev. | max. 510 | ±38 m 17:55 UTC | 4 rev. | max. 2700 | ±24 m The combined power of the three trails to be encountered from 17 to 18 UTC (the 11 rev. trail has less effect in the other two models) would cause a prolonged peak of perhaps 3000, while the Americas would face a short peak of over 4000. A very extended shallow peak that barely reaches storm level at no more that 1500 meteors/hour between 12 and 13 UTC is the forecast by Peter Brown & Bill Cooke who have simulated the orbits of millions of dust particles ejected from the comet under various assumptions. The very different outcome of these calculations (neither the 10 UTC nor the 18 UTC peak are pronounced here) seems to come from the greater degrees of freedom that the particles have to drift away from the dust trails in this 3D world. There are only three areas in which all four models agree: a) There will be at least one meteor storm this year, some time between 9 UTC and 19 UTC on Nov. 18, b) there will not be any storms over Europe, Africa and Western Asia, and c) the fluence of meteoroids, i.e. the number of dust particles hitting the atmosphere per area per time, will be 5 to 10 times larger this time than in 1999. Thus there is a somewhat higher risk for orbiting satellites, but it's not as dramatic as stated in some media reports. (McNaught & Asher, WGN 29 [Oct. 2001] 156-164, Lyytinen et al., ibid. 29 [Aug. 2001] 110-8, Jenniskens, ibid. 29 [Oct. 2001] 165-175, and Brown & Cooke, MNRAS 326 [Sep. 11, 2001] L19-22)	What really happened: IMO Shower Circulars of Nov. 26 (plotted here) and Nov. 20 (plotted here), markedly different AMS and NMS calculations and IAUC #7755 of Nov. 19 with early results. A big picture gallery! Simply stunning pictures (w/Japanese captions) are here! Nice pictures are also here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and linked here and especially here and here! A ZHR plot from Japan. Electrophonic sounds reported by NASA. Radar observations from Ondrejov, by SKiYMET and ESA. Video data from Washington, video counts by YK. And Dryden on FISTA. A big expedition report from Korea by Fischer and selected reports from Korea by Dittié, from Mongolia by Hinz, from Australia by Anderson, from California by Losch, from Boston by Menali, from the Houston area (and elsewhere) by HAS, from Germany by Thannhäuser and from the Caribbean by ESA. Coverage: SC (also impressions and a first summary), BBC, CNN, Astronomy, AZ Rep., SF Gate, Union Trib., AP [ABC], AFP, Reuters, Ananova, CV, ST, Chig. Trib. (on a false 'Leonids meteorite'), DPA, NZ, NTV, CT, RP, SPIEGEL (w/pic gallery). The predictions online: McNaught, Asher, Lyytinen, Jenniskens, Cooke. Websites on the Leonids in general and the 2001 storm in particular: ESA (other site), ESOC, Leonid MAC, DMS (updates), Leoniden.de, MeteorObs, AKM, IMO, Meteoros, AGO, ROG, Cannon, Leonids.hq.nasa.gov, Leonidstorm.com. Updates are also on Spaceweather.com. What an even bigger meteor storm "feels" like: selected eyewitness reports from 1999 (when the ZHR topped 5000) by Fischer in Jordan, various BAA observers in Egypt - and by Crawford on a NASA plane. And a just discovered report from 1866 ... Advance press releases about the 2001 storm: Science@NASA (earlier), ESA, NASA [SR], JPL, MSFC [SR], Chandra Chronicle, UWO, Sky & Telescope, Astronomy, ASP. Advance stories on the 2001 storm by Mercury (long article!), AFP, SC (more stuff), NYT, ABC, BBC, CNN, WP, FT, HC, HT, Astronomy, SD, SPIEGEL (früher), RP ( früher), NTV, NZ. Extremely bright fireball seen over Europe An extremely bright fireball has been sighted over large parts of Western Europe on October 27 at 19:20:20 UT: collected reports. SDSS claims fewer Earth-threatening asteroids The odds of earth suffering a catastrophic collision with an asteroid over the next century are about one in 5000 - a bold extrapolation from observations of main belt asteroids by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey which found about 700,000 asteroids there with diameters larger than 1 km: SDSS Press Release, BBC, AFP, SC, RP, SPIEGEL. Several more asteroids with moons have been discovered in October alone: Astronomy (1929) Kollaa was part of (4) Vesta, mineralogical similarities show: SD, SC. The Borrelly - DS-1 encounter as described at length by M. Rayman. Dino asteroid led to 'global devastation' The asteroid thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs destroyed plant life thousands of kilometres from where it struck - fossils uncovered in New Zealand point to major disturbances in climate that led to the death of most trees and flowering plants: CCNet, BBC, NZ. No mass extinction 100 Myr ago - and others may have been overrated, too: SD. How the Yarkovsky effect pushes asteroids towards Earth - gently nudging them over hundreds of millions or even billions of years by the absorption and re-emission of sunlight, enough so the asteroids may eventually fall into orbital zones where the combined gravitational kicks of the planets can force them onto Earth-crossing orbits: SWRI Press Release, CNN, SPIEGEL. First estimate of the formation temperature of Ammonia ice in a comet Observations made with the High-Dispersion Spectrograph (HDS) of Subaru Telescope have, for the first time, allowed astronomers to measure the formation temperature of ammonia ice in a comet - the temperature of 28±2 Kelvin suggests that this comet, Comet LINEAR (C/1999 S4), was formed between the orbits of Saturn and Uranus: Subaru Press Release, BBC, SC. More and more pictures of the once hyped comet C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR) are becoming available, e.g. by AstroStudio.
Heavy damage to Super-K neutrino telescope; will be rebuilt The famous Super-Kamiokande neutrino detector in Japan was severely damaged on Nov. 12 when thousands of its photomultiplier tubes imploded in a chain reaction. "People at the site heard a sound," reports Hirotaka Sugawara, director of KEK accelerator laboratory. "it happened inside the water and surely must have had something to do with the pressure, but I will not comment further." The water tanks were just being refilled after having been drained for maintenance. "The cause and how to deal with the loss in future will be discussed by newly founded committees," Kamioka Observatory's director Yoji Totsuka has announced, and: "We will rebuild the detector. There is no question."	Super-K Homepage and a DESY Press Release. Coverage by NYT, Astronomy, SR, BBC.
VLT Interferometer milestone: two big telescopes linked! On October 29, 2001, ANTU and MELIPAL, two of the four VLT 8.2-m Unit Telescopes at the ESO Paranal Observatory, were linked for the first time: Light from the southern star Achernar (Alpha Eridani) was captured by the two telescopes and sent to a common focus in the observatory's Interferometric Laboratory. Following careful adjustments of the optical paths, interferometric fringes were soon recorded there, proving that the beams from the two telescopes had been successfully combined "in phase". From an analysis of the observed pattern (the "fringe contrast"), the angular diameter of Achernar was determined to be 1.9 milli-arcsec. At the star's distance (145 light-years), this corresponds to a size of 13 million km. This result marks the starting point for operations with the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) and it was immediately followed up by other scientific observations.	ESO Press Release. Coverage by Astronomy. SN 1987A at 12 mm wavelength imaged by Australia Telescope - the radio interferometer is now being upgraded to receive wavelengths of 3 and 12 millimeters: CSIRO Press Release, picture.

ISS Update Calling the current plan to complete the ISS "not credible", an independent panel has recommended that NASA make a number of changes to the management and structure of the program. Meanwhile the next shuttle launch has been confirmed for Nov. 29. The IMC Report's Findings and Exec. Summary, a Hearing charter, statements by Young, O'Keefe and Weldon, ESA letters and a Canadian Note.

ISS Status Reports # 46, 45, 44, 43, 42. Science@NASA of Nov. 13, Nov. 2, an RSC Energia Press Release and a U of CO Press Release. Coverage of Nov. 27: NYT, SC. Nov. 26: SN, AP, SC. Nov. 25: SN. Nov. 22: AP, FT. Nov. 21: AN. Nov. 19: FT. Nov. 16: ST, SC. Nov. 15: SN. Nov. 13: AP, ST, Nov. 12: SC. Nov. 9: ST, SC (other story). Nov. 7: HC, SC (other story), AFP. Nov. 6: FT, Interfax, AFP, DPA, RP. Nov. 5: New Sci. Nov. 4: SR. Nov. 3: OS, NYT, BBC, FT, ST. Nov. 2: SN, HC, AN, FT, SC (other and another story). Nov. 1: ST, AN, AFP, AFP (D). Oct. 31: SN.

New NASA administrator named Sean O'Keefe, currently Deputy Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, has been nominated as Dan Goldin's successor: White House Press Release, NYT, SC (earlier), FT (earlier, still earlier), SN, FT, OS, HT, New Sci., AN ( earlier), AFP, ST (earlier), SD, AIP FYI. Goldin's departure: AN, SC, SR. Goldin on O'Keefe: SR. A final interview: Huntsville Times. Pluto mission gets a boost with joint house support The U.S. House and Senate conference committee acting on the fiscal year 2002 NASA appropriations have approved $30 million funding for development of the Pluto-Kuiper Belt mission, despite opposition by the Bush Administration: BBC, CNN, Aerosp. Daily, Planetary Soc. statement [SR], Sp.N., SD. The Pluto mission still in grave danger as the OMB is apparently planning to kill NASA's outer planets program alltogether, including the Europa Orbiter: SD, SR. The NASA budget in detail: Space science, Excerpts, Space News, ST, SN. Europe earmarks 7.84 billion euros for five-year space program Highlights of the 2002-2006 ESA program include continued funding commitments for an unmanned mission to Mars called Mars Express; for Galileo, a rival to the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS); and for a series of manned scientific missions aboard the ISS: ESA Press Release [SN], details, AW&ST, AFP. Earlier: WELT. The Aurora proposal: ESA summary. X-rays from Venus have been detected with the Chandra satellite - it's fluorescence radiation caused by X-rays from the Sun (while interaction with the solar wind plays only a minor role): MPG PRI, Chandra Press Release, ESA Science News. The planned observations were announced, by the way, in Update # 153 small DPS items! Europa's ice crust is deeper than 3 km can be concluded from impact craters on the Jovian moon: UA Press Release, SC, Astronomy, FT. Main aerobraking phase for Odyssey NASA's 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft has now entered the main aerobraking phase of the mission, with the closest approach to the planet carefully lowered to 110 km above the martian surface: JPL Release, CNN, AN. The s/c has encountered a strange, unexpected phenomenon as it slips over the red planet's north polar region: SC, NZ. A first image from THEMIS taken on Oct. 30: JPL Picture and Press Release [SR], SC, AFP, BBC, New Sci., Astronomy, SPIEGEL. The first visible THEMIS picture: PIA 3461, SC. What Odyssey's good for: SC. Funding shortfall will delay Mars, other missions NASA will delay deep-space missions and slash other program spending to offset a $500 million shortfall over five years caused by problems with a once-heralded contract to combine and privatize space operations: FT. 10 investigations for the 2005 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have been selected: JPL Release, AN. One or two Mars rovers in 2003? SC. How the MER 2003 landing sites were chosen - a report from the Workshop. Mars solar balloon inflation system tested at an altitude of 116,000 ft: Pioneer Press Release. There goes the last evidence for life traces in ALH84001 The evidence for bacterial magnetite crystals on the Martian meteorite is inadequate - and it was the last piece of the 1996 evidence not refuted already: ASU Press Release, NYT, BBC, AFP, AP, NZ, SPIEGEL. The ALH people still don't concede: SR. How to recognize ET life: ASU Press Release. Volcanoes still active on Mars? Insights from the MGS: GSA Press Release. New concept proposes that 'Superplumes' lift continents on Earth and Tharsis on Mars: UA Press Release. Did water stay on Mars longer than previously thought? WUStL Press Release. 100,000th Mars Orbiter Camera picture taken 5 years after launch: PIA 3178, MSSS Photo Release, SPIEGEL. Other recently released MOC pictures: Schiaparelli, Utopia, Herschel and Ganges. Spacecraft to hunt for gravity ripples A 40-day search beginning Nov. 26 will use the Cassini spacecraft and specially upgraded ground facilities of NASA's Deep Space Network to hunt for gravitational waves: JPL Release. Important test for Huygens - the revised mission plan for the Titan probe was validated in deep space: ESA Science News (earlier). Rosetta flight model arrives in the NL at ESTEC for tests, now that its two main sections have been mated: ESA Science News ( earlier). IceCube neutrino telescope gets federal funding A U.S. university will receive $15 million in federal funding for the first phase of a groundbreaking, Antarctica-based neutrino telescope designed to be implanted deep in ice in the South Pole and to chart the path of neutrinos as they pass from space through the Earth: U. Wisc. Press Release, WELT. Neutrino measurement surprises physicists - scientists at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory have found a surprising discrepancy between predictions for the behavior of neutrinos and their actual physics: Physics News Update, Fermilab and Univ. of Rochester Press Releases, NSU, NuTeV Homepage, NZ.

Atmosphere of transiting planet probed HST spectroscopy has succeeded in detecting the presence of sodium in the atmosphere of the planet of HD 209458 which regularly transits the star's disk (see Update # 158 story 3) - the observations demonstrate that it is possible with Hubble and other telescopes to measure the chemical makeup of extrasolar planet atmospheres and to potentially search for chemical markers of life beyond Earth: STScI, NCAR, NASA Releases, Science@NASA, NSU, NYT, WP, CNN, BBC, ABC, New Sci., SN, SC, AFP, NZ, RP, SPIEGEL. The first observation of an "orphan GRB afterglow" where the Gamma Ray Burst it was related to has not been seen has been reported from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey - it has found a "highly luminous optical transient" at z=0.4 that would fit the bill: a paper by Vanden Berk & al., SDSS and Fermilab Press Releases and an APOD. Neutrinos may proceed GRBs - the most powerful explosions in the universe may come with a 10-second warning: PSU Press Release, RP, NZ. HETE satellite observes GRB afterglow - the opportunity to see the afterglow in optical light provides crucial information about what is triggering these mysterious bursts: MIT, NASA Releases, NZ. VLA sees star turning into Planetary Nebula The VLA radio telescope has caught an old star during the very brief period of its transformation into a planetary nebula - it began only after 1984: NRAO Press Release, CNN, BBC, Astronomy. Formation of the first star in Universe simulated in a supercomputer: UCSD Press Release. What might happen if our Sun had a twin Chandra has studied two stars in an incredibly tight binary system (part of 44i Bootis) - they orbit around so quickly that that they pass in front of one another every three hours: Chandra Press Release, SPIEGEL. Electrons can "supernova surf" at near lightspeed - a possible explanantion for Cosmic Rays: Warwick Press Release, SPIEGEL. How sunspots take a stranglehold on the Sun A sunspot turns out to be a kind of whirlpool, where hot gas near the Sun's surface converges and dives into the interior at speeds of up to 4000 kilometres per hour, SOHO observations show: ESA Science News, GSFC and Stanford Press Releases, Science@NASA, FT, SC, BBC, ST, AFP, NZ, RP, SPIEGEL. VLA expansion approved The governing body for the NSF has approved an expansion project for the Very Large Array radio telescope in New Mexico - it recommended an NSF award of approximately $58.3m for the project over the next decade: NRAO Press Release. Radio emission from rapidly rotating cosmic dust grains has been detected with an old radio telescope - the first new source of continuum emission to be conclusively identified in the interstellar medium in nearly the past 20 years: NRAO Press Release, Astronomy. First data transmission between satellites using laser light For the first time, a data link between satellites was established using a laser beam as signal carrier - on board ESA's Artemis satellite the SILEX system provides an optical data transmission link with the CNES Earth observation satellite SPOT 4, which is orbiting the Earth at an altitude of 832 km while Artemis is temporarily in a parking orbit at 31 000 km: ESA News, New Sci., NZ, RP. Genesis in final orbit; battery problem not severe On Nov. 16 the Genesis spacecraft has entered perfectly into orbit around the balanced-gravity point Lagrange 1, where it will collect solar wind particles - and earlier scares about a hot battery are not seen as dramatic anymore: JPL Release ( earlier), SN, AN, AFP, NZ, WELT. Earlier: ST (earlier), FT ( earlier), Space News. Taurus accident explained - an actuator device in the rocket's second stage steering system didn't move as the solid-fueled motor ignited: SN. Little progress in Pegasus investigation: SC, DFRF Press Release. XMM views the Hubble Deep Field for 50 hours in total: ESA Science News. Hubble reveals ultraviolet galactic ring - at UV wavelengths NGC 6782 shows a spectacular, nearly circular bright ring surrounding its nucleus: STScI Release, SC, Astron., SPIEGEL. MOST to fly on Rockot - Canada's MOST (Microvariability & scillations of STars) microsatellite is scheduled to be launched in October 2002 as part of a multiple payload mission from Plesetsk, Russia, on the SS-19 based launch vehicle: CSA Press Release [SR], New Sci. Globalstar planning bankruptcy, reorganization - the company said that it would voluntarily file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection: ST. World's smallest self-propelled satellite nearly ready - Dawgstar is tentatively scheduled for launch from the Space Shuttle in early 2003: Univ. of WA PR. Chinese lunar fantasies, while agenda for manned missions remains sketchy: China Daily, BBC, SPIEGEL. Shenzhou-3 in December? AFP. Manned flights by 2005? AP, SD. British experts claim rocket success, testing the most powerful rocket motor ever launched from the UK: BBC.

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