The Cosmic Mirror

of News events across the Universe

Compiled and written by Daniel Fischer, Skyweek - older "Mirrors" in the Archive - and find out what the future might bring!


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Update # 153 of October 19th, 1999, at 18:30 UTC

U.S. entrepreneurs want to save Mir - with a tether!

A bold proposal by a group of American space enthusiasts may give the Russian space station Mir a 'stay of execution' of one more year - and a slim chance of being refurbished and turned into the first purely commercial manned space laboratory. A team backed by U.S. financier Walt Anderson met with top officials of Energia earlier this month - the company that runs Mir for the Russian government and which has the permission to look for any potential 'buyer' of the old station. While an immediate commercial future for the station is not in sight, the American proposal would allow the station to remain in orbit without the need for any further (expensive) supply flights, with the help of an electrodynamic tether.

There have been various U.S. experiments with space tethers in the 90's though never an operational use: The idea would be to have the final Mir crew install a 7 km long conducting cable at the station that would interact with the Earth's magnetic field and keep the station at a stable altitude. The details of this "Project Firefly" are right now being worked out; the cost would be around 30 million dollars. The additional year in orbit would provide more time for plans to turn the station into a commercially run laboratory, in direct competition with the ISS... (Space News dated Oct. 25, 1999)


Keep Mir Alive activism page.

One month to go for the next Leonids show

Will it be a real meteor storm this year, after the unexpected events of 1998 (see our special pages)? Most analysts agree that the probability of seeing 1000 or more meteors per hour for a short time interval on the early morning of November 18th is higher in 1999, and the values for the zenithal hourly rate published so far range from 1200 to 10 000 (these are the hourly rates for a single observer under perfect conditions). While some look mainly at historical storms and the relative constellation of the Leonids comet Tempel-Tuttle and Earth back then, others rely on more complex modelling of the orbits of the dust particles released from the comet.

Among the latter analysts it is an Irish-Australian team (with independent support from Russians) that has made the most 'impact' on the discussion this year. D. Asher and R. McNaught have come to the conclusion that they cannot only predict the times of Leonid storms to within minutes (this year it will be 2:08 UTC on Nov. 18) but that they have also finally understood how to predict the maximum ZHR values to expect (see Update # 146). "We believe Leonid storm prediction is now an exact science," says McNaught (on the meteorobs mailing list on Aug. 29, 1999): "Now, could I possibly dig a deeper hole for myself!"

According to the by now widely reported Asher & McNaught study (only the basics were published in a 'normal' astronomy journal, the MNRAS, while the actual predictions made it into the IMO journal WGN) we can expect ZHRs of 1200 both in 1999 (ideally placed for Europe and the Middle East) and 2000 (when the rate could be anywhere between 100 and 5000). But in 2001 and 2002 the expectations are as high as 35 000 and 25 000 meteors per hour (or 10 and 7 per second), with certain caveats (the 2001 numbers in particular are problematic). Would you bet money on that? "We have all placed our cards on the table," says another prominent forecaster, J. Rao: "It is up now to the Leonids themselves to see who holds the winning hand."

The Asher dust analysis with lots of graphics.
The Jordanian Leo'99 page - with interviews with various experts!
A basic introduction.
Near-Live Leonid Watching System prepared by NASA.
Leonids info for satellite operators from a company.
Leonid preview stories from The Aerospace Corporation on a satellite owners conference in May, NASA Science News on assessments in June, Space.com on the Asher/McNaught study.
IMO Leonids 1999 Page.
AMS Leonids page with details about the McNaught/Asher model predictions for beyond 1999.
Meteorobs mailing list infos & archive and a related meteor storms page.
Leonids 1999 Observation Project.
More from the 31st DPS Meeting (reported from in the last update) in Abano, Italy

Mars' magnetic stripes: Good bye, plate tectonics?

Much debate was caused in the Martian community by a bizarre discovery from the Mars Global Surveyor's magnetometer: The magnetic anomalies on the planet were concentrated in the Southern hemisphere - and they came in long stripes of changing polarity (see Update # 129 small stuff). This at first looked like a relic from ancient plate tectonics, because the - ongoing - sea-floor spreading on Earth causes such a stripe pattern as well (together with rather regular polarity switches of the Earth's field). But the details were very different on Earth and Mars which also lacked any other traces of plate tectonics.

This has led to a search for alternative explanations of Mars' magnetic stripes, and it was the PI of the MGS magnetometer who has now come up with what may be a more convincing explanation. What if there was a homogeneous magnetization of the surface of early Mars, and then some magma came from below and cracked it along various lines? Just like a bar magnet broken in two forms two new poles at the crack, the pattern of field lines would change - in much the way it's being observed today by MGS. The magma intrusion and cracking (that even seems to be indicated in the topography) could be related to the formation of the Tharsis volcanoes - a kind of 'one-shot plate tectonics'. (Poster and press conference on Oct. 14, 1999, by M. Acuna)

"No ancient shorelines on Mars" argument flawed? The widely reported conclusion from MGS imagery that there are no old shorelines on Mars (where they were suspected at Viking resolution) and that therefore there is no evidence for an ocean on young Mars (see Update # 149 sidebar of lead) may be wrong, says Bill Hartmann: Sometimes you need the larger, low-res view, to spot subtle, eroded structures in aerial views, while close-up views mislead! Therefore the MGS pictures can't close the case... (same press conference on Oct. 14)

Mars' altimetry gets better all the time while the MOLA laser altimeter on the MGS continues to deliver tons of data - the famous maps from May (see Update # 132 story 3) are already superseded. Now we have altimetry for every quarter of a degree, and 1/2 degree block is added every month. In the public domain so far is an altimetry data set of 1 degree resolution that already contains a lot of information on Mars' history. The Northern hemisphere, e.g. is 6 km lower than the Southern - one-plume convection or major impacts could be to blame. (Smith at the same news conference on Oct. 14)


In other Mars news:
An interview with the JPL boss and a Mars Surveyor manager on the MCO loss and MPL prospects: Space Daily.
Mars Surveyor 2001 payload the most complex ever flown to another planet - the orbiter, the lander and the rover (a clone of Sojourner) are full of instruments, both for science and for the preparation of any human mission that might follow. The APEX (Athena Precursor) in particular is a highly integrated payload. (Talk by Saunders at the DPS Meeting on Oct. 12 + Mission Homepage + APEX Homepage)
Choice of landing site for 2001 now reduced to two: Space Daily.
Mars Express gives Mars'96 payload a 2nd chance: Nearly all instruments on ESA's first mission to Mars are derived from hardware that vanished with Russia's Mars'96, only one payload (MARSIS) is new. The orbiter promises global hi-res photography at 10 m, global mineralogy at 100 m and subsurface sounding at 1 km resolution, while the lander Beagle 2 (that is now most likely to fly) carries the usual instruments plus some exobiological detectors - and a 'mole' to dig below the surface. (News conference by Ferri at the DPS Meeting on Oct. 11 + Mission Homepage + Beagle 2 Homepage)
With 'Micro Missions' to Mars and onwards: NASA is busily planning for a series of 'micro missions' to Mars that will cost less than 30 million dollars per mission and will launch as auxilliary payloads on the Ariane 5 and make it to their target via the Moon. The launch mass limit is 220 kg, the science payload restricted to 5...10 kg at Mars - nonetheless various concepts of airplanes, landers and penetrators are pondered. And there could be micromissions to Venus, Mercury and asteroids as well! (Talk by Wilson at the DPS Meeting on Oct. 12)
Yet another Mars movie is being planned, this time "Ghosts on Mars" by John Carpenter: Space.com.

What the sulfuric acid on Europa means

The discovery by Galileo's NIMS instrument that there is a lot of sulfuric acid mixed into the icy surface of the Jovian moon Europa (see Update # 149) supersedes the earlier interpretation of the NIMS spectra as evidence for various salts. Laboratory experiments on icy mixtures have since been performed that make it all but certain that hydrated sulfuric acid is a major constituent of Europa's surface and can explain all the distortions seen in the water absorption bands in the NIMS spectra "pretty darn good". Europa's surface composition varies widely, though, with some regions being pure ice and others predominantly hydrated and everything inbetween.

Spectral maps of Europa show furthermore that the presence of sulfuric acid correlates nicely with the darkness of the surface (for which polymerized molecules are responsible), and some of the largest dark bands even show up in the NIMS map. While the sulfur most likely came from elsewhere in the Jovian system as ions and was implanted into the ice (and then turned to H2SO4 by radiation), there must also be geological processes going on that concentrate the acid in certain areas. The connection with the dark bands makes it likely that here upwelling waterice lava has freed sulfur compounds embedded in the crust and exposed them in a concentrated fashion. (Carlson & al., Science of Oct. 1st, 1999, 97-99 + news conference by Carlson at the DPS Meeting on Oct. 13th)


Earlier JPL News Release on the identification of the H2SO4 and CNN and SpaceViews stories.

Related:
The details of NASA's Europa Orbiter are already well defined - especially the fact that there will be only 20 kg of payload while 565 kg of propellant will dominate the spacecraft. After a Nov. 2003 launch the Orbiter will arrive in the Jovian system in Aug. 2006 but in Europa's orbit only in 2008 - whether the 2 years among the other moons can be used for science depends on the precise orbits (reaching Europa in the safest manner has priority). When in the final orbit the science objectives are to determine whether there is an ocean, to map the distribution of any liquid water and to understand how Europa's surface works, which is now generally thought to be only 10...100 Myr old. The whole Europa orbit activities are limited by the radiation environment, and the primary mission there lasts only 30 days (though an extension seems likely). (Talk by Johnson at the DPS Meeting on Oct. 12 + Space News of Oct. 25 + Europa Orbiter Homepage)

SMART-1 will fly - here is why

At its last meeting in September the Science Programme Committee of the European Space Agency has finally given green light for the first mission of a new kind: SMART stands for Small Missions for Advanced Research in Technology, basically the European answer to NASA's New Millennium Program that tests innovative technologies for possible use in later scientific missions. And SMART-1 resembles the Deep Space 1 mission at first glance: It's primary objective is to qualify an ion engine for deep space missions, in particular the BepiColombo Mercury orbiter (see Update # 149). But the spacecraft is more complex than DS1 and carries more instruments which make it a really mixed tech & science project from the beginning.

SMART-1 will be launched in late 2002 as an auxilliary payload on an Ariane 5 (the exact launch date depends on when the - probably commercial - main payload is ready) - and the travel to its target, the Moon, will take 14 to 17 (!) months! Little fuel will be spent and the Moon's gravity used in multiple weak gravity assists, and the long cruise phase will be used for X-ray astronomy with one of the 3 1/2 real science instruments. Only 15 kg are allocated for the payload, so miniaturization of nonetheless powerful instruments is another objective of the SMART-1 mission. The spacecraft (with a launch mass around 350 kg) carries

  • for diagnostics of the ion engine and for other technological experiments an Electric Propulsion Diagnostic Package (EPDP) with various plasma sensors,
  • KaTE, an X/Ka-band Telemetry & Telecommand experiment,
  • for both tech & science use an Spacecraft Potential, Electron and Dust Experiment (SPEDE) that completes the EPDP package and also monitors the spatio- temporal variations of the spacecraft's plasma, electron & dust environment during cruise and in the lunar orbit,
  • for science use (but also to demonstrate new detector designs for future missions) the Demonstration of a Compact Imaging X-ray Spectrometer (D-CIXS) to provide X- ray spectroscopy of the Moon with 30 km resolution and to monitor celestial sources during the cruise.
  • AMIE, the extremely miniaturized Asteroid-Moon Imaging Experiment with a CCD camera with a FOV of 5.3 degrees, and
  • SIR, the SMART-1 IR Spectrometer with a wavelength range of 0.9 to 2.4 microns.
Two further experiments will use AMIE (to look for laser flashes sent up from an ESA telescope on Tenerife) and KaTE plus AMIE (RSIS, the Radio Science Investigation with SMART-1, that will allow precise navigation and even measurements of the Moon's rotation). Further SMART missions haven't been defined yet, but ESA's planners would like to have about one every three years: Decisions hinge on what innovations the future 'cornerstone' missions demand. (Nature of Sept. 30, 1999, p. 414 + Racca & al., paper IAA-99-IAA.11.2.09 from the 50th Int'l Astronautical Congress Oct. 4-8, 1999 + various talks + posters at the DPS Meeting)

SMART Homepage.
A report on the SPC Meeting from ESA's Science pages - that has exactly zero content regarding any decisions made of the meeting or questions raised there. Why does ESA never disclose these right away and why do we always have to wait for the Nature or Science or Space News articles about them???
The decision on the next Cornerstone mission of ESA's science program won't come before next June. The choice is now down to the Mercury orbiter BepiColombo and the space interferometer GAIA for high-precision astrometry. This Hipparcos-successor would be even more ambitious than the just selected NASA mission FAME (see last Update). If BepiColombo wins, its three components would probably be launched at two different times: That would stretch the cost somewhat.
Next September ESA will also select two more 'flexi missions', smaller projects that balance the cornerstones. One choice will probably be a substantial ESA contribution to NASA's Next Generation Space Telescope, while the choice of the other mission will depend on which cornerstone is selected.
At the SPC meeting also certain concerns were voiced about unnecessary duplications: Do the U.S., Europe and Japan have to have each a Mercury mission and a big X-ray satellite of their own? While the missions are often complementary and not identical, more coordination between the space agencies would be good, the ESA delegates stated - and in the case of the Mercury missions such talks apparently have happened already.

Merger wave in Europe's aerospace continues

Aerospatiale Matra (Paris), DaimlerChrysler Aerospace AG (Dasa, München) and Marconi Electronic Systems (Stanmore, UK) have signed the Formation Agreement for the first trinational European space company, which will be named Astrium: DASA Press Release, SpaceViews, Space Daily stories.

Will Russia help China put men in space?

More semi-official rumors on an upcoming manned flight are reported by Space.com, Space Daily and the BBC.

Hubble views of the "Rotten Egg Nebula"

reveal how a star dramatically transforms itself from a normal red giant into a planetary nebula: STScI Release and ESA Science News.

Roton makes the third test flight

After two simple hops, the highly experimental Roton Atmospheric Test Vehicle (ATV) made its third, and most extended, atmospheric test flight earlier this month: Roton Press Release, SpaceViews, Space.com, Space Daily stories.
  • Cluster cooperation with China discussed - apart from direct participation in the exciting ESA mission, Chinese researchers are hoping to fly their own 'mini-Cluster' mission, known as Double Star: ESA Science News.
  • A series of coronal mass ejections made for nice SOHO pictures: NASA Science News, SpaceViews story.
  • Radarsat maps Antarctica in unprecedented detail: lots of pictures, Space Daily, ExploreZone, Space.com, BBC stories.
  • Unknown Dutch Print with a Lunar Map - who knows where it came from? Special page.
  • The Cosmic Mirror gives clearer view of Neptune :-) While e.g. Space.com and CNN reported only on the less clear Palomar view of the planet (see last update), both SpaceViews and the BBC carried the better Keck view as well - after their editors read about the under-reported competitor in the CM.

Small items from the DPS Meeting

X-rays from Venus?

That's a prediction based on the popular model for the X-rays from comets that works by charge exchange between the comets' gas and the solar wind. The same process should occur in the upper atmosphere of Venus - Chandra will have a look. (Talk by Lisse on Oct. 13 + Chandra's plan)

Nitrogen sulface found in Hale-Bopp

Although scientists have long known that the molecule exists within dense interstellar clouds, this is the first time it has been seen in a comet. The radical is the only known molecule in comets that contains both nitrogen and sulfur. ( Press Release from Oct. 13, covered by Space.com, Space Daily and SpaceViews)

No big Vulcanoids are expected

inside the orbit of Mercury: While there are stable orbits for minor bodies in this region, intense collisonal grinding is destroying minor planets there - it's unlikely to find more than 100 objects larger than 1 km in diameter, models show. No wonder SOHO hasn't found anything so far. (Talk by Durda on Oct. 12)

Measuring asteroids with HST's FGS

The Fine Guidance Sensors of the Hubble Space Telescope can also be used to measure small angles and objects in the sky for scientific purposes: One result are the dimensions of asteroid 63 Ausonia which measured 56 x 28 x 23 milli arc seconds on one day - each number with an error < 1 mas. (Talk by Tanga on Oct. 12)

Water on Jupiter - in old Voyager spectra

Sometimes it can take 20 years until the crucial details are found in space science data: 1 to 1.5 % of IRIS spectra of Jupiter's clouds from the 1979 Jupiter flybys show a characteristic dip at 44 micrometers than has now been modelled as due to small amounts of water ice. The water probably came from deep below the ammonia clouds but was carried up above them by local strong convection. (Talk by Simon-Miller on Oct. 15)

Ganymede's aurorae confuse Hubble, ground-based observers

Hubble's STIS instrument is seeing emissions of neutral oxygen in the ultraviolet near the Jovian moon's poles - but ground-based telescopes show emission near the moon's equator at visible wavelengths while the polar emission is lacking. There must be electrons with lower energy involved here, but why is there no optical emission from the poles? (Talks by McGrath and Brown on Oct. 15)

Dust clouds around 3 of the Galilean moons

of Jupiter have now been seen in situ by Galileo's dust detector: not only at Ganymede (see Update # 136 story 4) but also at Europa and Callisto (for Io there just are no data). About 10 tons of dust surround each moon. (Talk by Krüger on Oct. 15)

We're missing most of Io's big volcanic eruptions

because they last only 1 % of the time and despite big efforts there just isn't an IR telescope monitoring the moon every all the time. Both the big and the many small eruptions can have temperatures up to 1300...1500 Kelvin which means that they are "super-basaltic". The year 1999 has been rather quiet so far. (Review talk by Spencer on Oct. 15)


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Compiled and written by Daniel Fischer
(send me a mail to [email protected]!), Skyweek
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