Segacs's World I Know |
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Blog about politics (mideast and pro-Israel, Canadian and local Montreal), world events, and random thoughts.
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1.7.04
I'm leavin' on a jet plane... Well, folks, I'm off to spend a couple of weeks in beautiful Eretz Israel. I won't have much internet access while there, so posting will be either minimal or nonexistent. I do promise to make up for it when I get home, as I'm sure I will have lots to say, both about the trip and about all the things that happened while I was away. In the meantime, if you're bored, you can browse the archives or the newly-updated Hall of Fame. I also highly recommend all the excellent blogs that I've linked to on the left of this page. I'll be back on the 19th, so have a good one, and try to behave while I'm gone. | Happy Canada Day 
We live in a crazy country. Our political system is a curious cross between boring and chaotic. Excessive regionalization, a province that keeps threatening to separate, and a national identity that's more about what we're *not* than who we *are*... these are just some of the things that can drive even a heartfelt federalist nuts. But then I stop and think about all the great things about this country. There are so many beautiful places, from the Rockies to the Prairies to two coasts. We've got world-class cities like my home of Montreal and (I'll grudgingly admit) Toronto. The people are generally friendly, we've got mostly solid values, and a thriving democracy with plenty of room for free speech and dissenting opinions. Despite our problems, we have a mainly peaceful, prosperous country that I, for one, am extremely proud to call home. So shout it loud and clear, folks: I AM CANADIAN!!! | 30.6.04
Bait and switch Gilles Duceppe on June 27: "As I have said from the beginning, we won't decide sovereignty on the 28th." Gilles Duceppe on June 29: "We will carry through with this struggle until we reach the country we need to give ourselves." Why does this not surprise me? The thing is, many of the people who voted for the Bloc were not, in fact, voting for sovereignty. They were trying to teach the Liberals a lesson, angry about the sponsorship scandal and believing that the Bloc could best represent Quebec's interests in Ottawa. But they would vote "No" in a referendum. However, the Parti Quebecois has been sitting on the sovereignty issue far too long. Look for them to start talking about it more and more, as Charest and his Liberals lose popularity with each passing day of their term in office. The people don't want another referendum, but the politicians sure do, and something tells me we're in a countdown to one that launched on Monday. I can't wait. *Groan*. | More court rulings Religious Jews will be allowed to build succahs, according to the Supreme Court of Canada, who ruled against their condo association that was trying to limit them from doing so: In a 5-4 decision, the justices said the state can't regulate personal religious beliefs.B'nai Brith, which intervened in this case, had the following reaction: Allan Adel, National Chair of B'nai Brith's League for Human Rights,Personally, I agree. While not religious, I tend to think that anyone should have the right and freedom to practice a religious belief that doesn't harm or infringe upon the rights of someone else. The condo association had no real reason to ban the succahs, and people want to build them on their own private property. There are a lot of fine lines and open questions when it comes to religious freedoms, but this ruling makes sense. | And speaking of important court rulings today, our supreme court at home has been tackling an important issue: music downloads. Today, the Canadian Supreme Court ruled that ISP's don't have to pay royalties to musicians to compensate them for the lost revenue from people downloading their music for free: The court ruled that companies that provide access to the worldwide web are "intermediaries" who are not subject to copyright law.This one, I agree with. Should we fine Canada Post for the costs of mail fraud? Should Bell Canada have to pay for people using the telephone to run scams? All the Supreme Court did today was reaffirm the principle that a technology is neutral, and that it is the responsibility of the people using it to obey the law, not of the ISPs to pay for those who don't. | Supreme Court rules fence must be rerouted In a landmark ruling with countless political implications, the Israeli Supreme Court has ruled that a 30 km stretch of the security fence must be re-routed in order to avoid negatively affecting the quality of life of the Palestinian people living nearby. This ruling has sent shockwaves through the Israeli, Palestinian, and international communities. The Palestinians are trumpeting it as a triumph, but they might not have been reading carefully enough: Dahla argued that the decision to build the fence in the territories was a political rather than a security decision, and international law prohibits the military commander from making political decisions.The ruling instead spoke of the need to weigh the legitimate security concerns of Israelis against the harm that the fence's route would cause to the daily lives of the Palestinians. Something tells me that the Palestinian Authority doesn't spend too much of its time weighing its policy of terrorism against the harm caused to the daily lives of Israelis. | The month the music died Israeli songstress Naomi Shemer passed away at age 74 last Saturday. And Israeli folk singer Arik Lavie succumbed to illness yesterday at age 77. Both made contributions to the cultural tapestry of Israel, particularly in the 1960s. Their voices will be missed. | 29.6.04
The Morning After: What they're saying David Janes has a roundup of the (mostly-disappointed) reactions of right-leaning bloggers, who chose to believe the polls and Harper's optimism before last night. Debbye says we got the "devil we know", and Colby Cosh says he made himself "look like an ass" while Damian Penny "feels like a rube". Don't beat yourselves up too much, guys. The pollsters had it way wrong. There's going to be a lot of questions being asked at Ipsos-Reid this morning. Big journalism reacts as well. The Gazette thinks that the Liberals won because "fear overcame disgust". The Globe and Mail says that Martin's victory was only provisional, and that he should resist NDP pressures to swing too far to the left fiscally. The CBC speculates on what's next for Martin, and questions his role as a leader. And of course, the separatist paper Le Devoir lauds the Bloc's "remarkable victory" and says Quebeckers gave the Liberals a "kick in the ass". Indeed. It was the Quebec Bloc sweep that cost the Liberals their majority government. There's a lot of speculation going on about what comes next. Will Martin manage to form a stable minority governing coalition? Or will the whole house of cards collapse in a few months? We'll have to see. | The Results As of 8:00am, the final results stood as follows:
Overnight, a couple of extra seats were lost from the NDP and the Libs and gained by the Tories. This puts the combined Liberals and NDP at 154 seats - or one shy of the 155 needed to form a majority. Sweet relief! While on most issues this will make no difference - an extra vote is generally easy enough to find - it does mean that in theory, the Conservatives and the Bloc (and one independent) can all combine to vote down a Liberal-NDP initiative. Some of the margins were razor-thin; it will be interesting to see whether recounts affect any results. | This is sad According to a CBC poll, us Canadians don't know much about our government. Some interesting results of this poll: While only 84% of us could name our Prime Minister, 97% correctly named the President of the United States. And 17% of Quebeckers thought that Gilles Duceppe was the leader of the opposition. Yes, these are the people who decided tonight's election. Sometimes I read these results and get very scared. | One last thought on the election before I go to sleep: It's still close. Many ridings were won with squeakers, and others are still undecided. With recounts, the results may still change enough to make a difference. At the moment, the NDP and Liberals are combining for 157 seats. Remember that 155 is needed for a majority. That's a close enough number that any recounts, slim losses, or bolting of MPs may put the notion of a Liberal-NDP coalition in danger. Or at least one can only hope... If Layton gets his way, his popular vote will translate into a lot more seats next time around. But I can't imagine any of the other parties approving proportional representation. It's not in their best interests. And of course, if Duceppe has his way, then Quebec won't be in Canada in time for the next federal election. And to think that in 8 ridings, the Conservatives stole enough Liberal votes to elect Bloc MPs. *Sigh*. Update: The combined Liberal-NDP total is now down to 155 predicted seats. However it ends up, it's going to be close. | 28.6.04
Federal Election 2004: Post-Mortem Analysis The votes have been counted, the results are in, and the analysis begins. Before the morning papers start screaming out their opinions, here are a few thoughts to leave the evening: Liberals: The nominal winner, Paul Martin, managed to hang onto a plurality, pulling ahead of expectations in the final days of the campaign and making a stronger showing than many people thought. He'll keep his job. But he also lost his majority, several cabinet ministers, and a whole lot of seats. He also lost his ability to move his party rightward and bring in fiscal reforms, now that he will have to deal with the NDP. He probably has mixed feelings tonight. Conservatives: Harper's campaign was the biggest disappointment of the night for his supporters, and his opponents are breathing a sigh of relief. Despite peaking numbers and some crazy-talk about a Tory majority, Harper will be relegated to official opposition status yet again. Despite picking up a few seats, he's the big loser of this election, no question. Bloc Quebecois: Duceppe's virtual sweep of Quebec was a big victory for Duceppe, as he brought his party to levels not seen since the Bouchard days. Predictably, he's now claiming that this was a vote for sovereignty, and it looks like we might be facing the prospect of another referendum here in Quebec. On the other hand, Duceppe has to be at least a little disappointed that his party will not be holding the balance of power in Parliament. NDP: Layton and his ragtag bunch of lefties are the night's big winners. Despite getting the least number of seats of the big 4 parties, and only 15% of the popular vote, it is the NDP that will be setting the agenda in Parliament with this minority government. They will hold the balance of power, and Paul Martin will be forced to make all kinds of concessions to them in order to govern. Layton's camp is ecstatic tonight. Overall: In a way, this was the worst possible result. The Liberals had an opportunity to win a majority and move the party closer to the center. Instead, they will be forced to deal with the NDP. In a way, I would have almost preferred a Conservative minority, because at least then the government would've been powerless to do anything, propped up by the Liberals only long enough for them to regain their popularity, and then soundly defeated in an election that would restore a Liberal majority. Now, instead of more centrist ideas getting respect, we will be hearing about all of the NDP's nutty policies getting attention. Tomorrow's Canada is worse off than yesterday's, and that says a lot. So I will head off to sleep, feeling a mixture of relief and disappointment. And then I will remind myself that none of this really matters all that much anyway. | Election night results 7:30pm: It's gonna be a long night. Despite the TV networks' rush to predict the result first, I doubt anyone will know anything certain for quite some time. I will update the table above intermittently when candidates are declared elected, but I assume most people will be watching the coverage live. Instead, I'll post some comments as I go along. 8:15pm: So far, the results for the Liberals aren't looking nearly as grim as most of the media had been predicting. They just announced that Scott Brison managed to win his riding - as a Liberal. Very interesting. Unlike a lot of people, I don't view switching parties as a sign of being a "traitor", but more as a sign of wanting to stay true to one's ideals. Some people accused Brison of opportunism, but I think he just found that his values fit better with the Liberal party. Apparently, most voters in his riding agreed. On the other hand, John Herron, who also switched from the Tories to the Libs, lost to the Conservative candidate in his riding. Win some, lose some. 8:50pm: Bad news for the Conservatives all over Eastern Canada, as they are down in seats and way down in popular vote. The Liberals have done what they needed to do in that part of the country, at any rate. There won't be much more news until results start to come in from Quebec, Ontario, and Central Canada. 9:10pm: The first Bloc Quebecois MP has been elected, in Gaspésie/Îles-de-la-Madeleine. A sign of things to come in Quebec as a whole? Probably. 9:25pm: Local Conservative Party headquarters in Montreal are in a friggin' Cage au Sports! That's hysterical!!! 9:30pm: Polls are now closed in most of the country. Results should start to come in pretty quickly now. 9:45pm: Everyone's talking about Layton versus Mills in the hotly-contested riding of Toronto-Danforth. But the big story that hasn't been reported there is that the Conservative Party candidate, a guy with the odd-sounding name of Loftus Cuddy, is the brother of Blue Rodeo's lead singer Jim Cuddy. (Blue Rodeo's concert on Saturday at Bourbon Street North was awesome, by the way). 10:05pm: CTV just predicted a Liberal win, though they're not saying yet whether it will be a majority or a minority. Remember folks, you heard it here first. 10:15pm: With only 2 out of 205 polls reporting, my riding of NDG-Lachine has been declared a win for incumbent Liberal Marlene Jennings. No surprises there. I knew when I voted for her that it wouldn't be much of a race. 10:30pm: The media networks are all projecting a Liberal minority now. As happy as I am that the Liberals will be taking it, my relief is tempered by the fact that the NDP might get enough seats to combine with the Liberals for a majority, thus giving the NDP all kinds of undeserved power in government and swinging policies to the far left. I'm crossing my fingers that they're wrong. 10:45pm: David Pratt, the Liberal minister of defence, was defeated in his riding. Some big-name Liberals are falling to the Tories, but it won't be enough for Harper's team to take the reins. The Liberals are still way ahead. 10:50pm: At the moment, using elected and leading totals, it's looking like Liberals + NDP will combine for enough seats for a majority. Goddammit! This is bad, bad news for Canada. 11:00pm: L. Ian MacDonald is talking about a "Lib-Lab" coalition, and Jack Layton dusting off his shopping list. With the NDP holding the balance of power, this is probably one of the worst-case scenarios that could have emerged. The Liberals had a golden opportunity to move rightward, towards the middle, under Paul Martin. Instead, thanks to the Bloc sweep in Quebec, the party will be forced to move leftward. 11:15pm: It's all over now but the fat lady singing. Gilles Duceppe just gave his triumphant victory speech after his sweep in Quebec, and - surprise surprise - is suddenly talking about sovereignty again nonstop (after swearing that this vote was not about separation). I don't know why this stuff even bothers me anymore, it's so expected. Still, this is bad news for Quebec. In the rest of the country, it's pretty much understood that Paul Martin will govern with Jack Layton's help. The NDP agenda will be front-and-center, and we can kiss Martin's fiscally-responsible policies, like debt reduction, goodbye. The good news is the Liberals won. The bad news is, well, everything else. Unfortunately, I predicted this. | And a shift now to the international scene, as the American coalition transferred power to Iraqis two days early: The handover of sovereignty took place earlier in the day, at 10:26 a.m. Baghdad time. The transfer of power came two days before the June 30 deadline previously announced by the U.S.-led coalition.The big question now is: what will the activists chant instead of the catchy "end the occupation"? No, seriously, the big question is, of course, can they pull it off? Will the new Iraqi leadership be able to restore calm and govern somewhat democratically? Or will the chaos of the last few months only increase, as insurgents target the interim leadership for assassination, ensuring continuing violence? A power struggle is virtually a guarantee, but questions still abound: Will the new leadership resort to martial law in order to instill calm? Even if they do so, will the military be effective against the terrorists? There have been reports that many members of the military are sympathetic to the terrorists, and refusing to follow the Iraqi leadership. As much as I'd like to be optimistic, the whole handover of power has taken place at lightning-speed. I'm not sure that the Iraqi people will be able to support a democratic system, in the face of kidnappings, terror attacks, suicide bombings, and every effort to stop the process. One thing is for certain: the world is watching. Unfortunately, more of the world seems to be hoping for the experiment to fail. And that, in the end, may be its ultimate undoing. | Election Day The polls open in 8 hours. And nobody knows who will be elected, or what will happen in the country. Confusion is pretty much the only certainty at this point, as we're almost surely heading towards a minority government. Predictions are abounding all over the blogosphere, but the only one I will make is that most Canadians will actually tune in tomorrow night to watch the results being broadcast. Meanwhile on the campaign front, the leaders wrapped up a low, mud-slinging campign with - what else? - some last-minute mud-slinging. No new ideas, though. We haven't seen too many of those in this campaign. And it's bad enough that American nitwits like Michael Moore and Ralph Nader are butting into Canadian politics. But hey, at least we - unlike Israel - don't have to worry about meddlesome campaigning by the European Union. So to all Canadians: exercise your right to vote, tough as it may be to find someone worth voting for. May the least-awful candidate win. | |
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