Britain's Tax Base Loss
in the 2300AD rpg

Intro

In the 2300AD rpg, interstellar colonization is an expensive and time-consuming effort.

For instance, a heavy effort colony effort will require moving 20,000 people per year, for the next 35 years ( 5 to set it up, 30 more to finish off growth), to the colony world.  This ties up a significant amount of transport starships.  On top of that, you have the expense of recruiting, training and equipping the colonists, plus administering and protecting them and their offspring.

Most governments will raise the money via selling bonds, which will have to be repaid out of future general revenues.

Anyone who goes to all this effort expects some sort of future economic returns; the prestige of setting one up is not enough.

As almost all colonies in the 2300AD rpg are set up by national governments, these governments expect this "return on investment" in the form of tax revenues: personal, corporate and trade tariffs ( as a whole, the "tax base").
 

UK's Colonial History

Between 2163 and 2240, the UK government made a considerable financial investment in setting up colonies on Tirane ( Alpha Centauri) and out on the French Arm.

• Tirane - initially two heavy efforts, supplemented later by two median efforts.
• French Arm - one half-heavy, one medium, and one light effort.

Unfortunately for the UK, a majority of her colonial population on Tirane sought limited "home rule" ( dominion) in 2241, then full independence in 2277.
 

UK's Tax Base Loss

Once "home rule" was granted to Wellon in 2241, most of the Wellonese "tax base", that UK had previously enjoyed exclusive taxation rights over, shifted to the government of the Dominion of Wellon ( it had to have funds to operate).

When Wellon became fully independent in 2277, part of the UK's other Tiranian colony, New Albion, seceded and joined Wellon.  While GDW never said why they seceded, "taxation without representation" was probably at its heart, especially if the UK did not lower taxes to keep up the morale in New Albion after 2241.  Morale in New Albion would have been hurt by watching the Wellonese enjoy paying lower tax payments as a whole, lower payments to the UK, and "home rule" for 36 years ( 2241-2277).
 

Modeling the Tax Base Loss

GDW did not provide much in the way of economic data for the various colonies, but it is possible to make models.

The following use the Erroneous "4% Forever" Table derived population values, as that is what GDW mistakenly used.

First, define a "TPU" ( Tax Payer Unit) to be all the taxes generated by the economic activities of one million people in the UK on Earth.

Second, select/try varying economic efficiency rate assumptions for the colonies ( if a colonies economy is half the efficiency of Earth's then it will generate half the taxes per million colonists), and then convert the colonial populations using their efficiency/tax rate, into equivalent TPUs.

Here is an example.  It assumes that economy on Tirane is 50% Earth's efficiency ( hence raises half the taxes), and that the other French Arm colonies are 25% efficient.  The "TaxBase" column shows how much of the UK's tax base is left, after Wellon seeks independence.

                       The UK's declining tax base in 2300AD
                                                           Total  -Wellon
Year        Earth     OtherCol   New Albion       Wellon   TPUs   TPUs     TaxBase
2160   52,871,301            0            0            0   52.87           100.00%
2170   55,719,032            0      190,526      190,526   55.91           100.00%
2180   58,554,903       74,480      582,170      582,170   59.16           100.00%
2190   61,544,424      230,304    1,161,902    1,161,902   62.76           100.00%
2200   64,677,635      460,962    1,957,005    1,957,005   66.75           100.00%
2210   67,838,344      897,654    2,954,917    2,954,917   71.02           100.00%
2220   71,350,033    1,617,922    4,434,018    4,434,018   76.19           100.00%
2230   75,386,726    2,695,055    6,623,450    6,623,450   82.68           100.00%
2240   79,723,020    4,250,457    9,864,344    9,864,344   90.65    85.72   94.56%
2250   84,297,678    6,443,774   14,762,614   14,661,657  100.62    93.29   92.71%
2260   89,134,127    9,714,694   22,032,349   21,762,853  113.46   102.58   90.41%
2270   94,267,141   14,560,189   32,793,336   32,274,360  130.44   114.30   87.63%
2280   99,716,586   21,732,709   32,913,106   63,643,073  153.43   121.61   79.26%
2290  105,501,970   32,349,786   48,779,454   94,387,367  185.17   137.98   74.51%
2300  111,643,998   48,065,654   72,265,525  139,896,434  229.74   159.79   69.55%
Year        Earth     OtherCol   New Albion       Wellon   Total  -Wellon  TaxBase

          100.00%       25.00%       50.00%       50.00%
                    Tax Rate Ratios Per Capita

By the year 2300AD, the UK has lost just over 30% of its original tax base; this level of loss is a severe blow to any government.
 

Graphing the Tax Base Loss

Here is a visual representation of the same data.  It is a "total area" graph, each color is stacked on the other, so that the top of the curve is the total for all combined.

The ratio of economic efficiency is 100% Earth : 50% Tirane : 25% Other Colonies.

• Blue is Wellon.
• Red is New Albion.
• Yellow is all of the UK's French Arm colonies.
• Green is the UK on Earth.

So the top of the blue section ( area that is blue+red+yellow+green) shows the total UK economy, if no one had seceded.

The top of the red section ( area that is red+yellow+green) shows the total UK economy, once Wellon is independent.
 

Alternate models

Here are graphs for some other efficiency ratios
( Earth : Tirane : OtherColonies )

Graph showing 100% : 100% : 100% UK Economy
Graph showing 100% :  75% :  75% UK Economy
Graph showing 100% :  75% :  50% UK Economy

Note, in all of these, the tax base loss for the UK is an even larger percent than the above model shows ( ~30% in the year 2300AD).
 

Supporting Text

GDW's ( now FFE's) products provide supporting evidence of the UK's tax base loss in the 2300AD rpg.

Ships of the French Arm ( pages 28 and 32) supports this, as the last two military spacecraft made by the UK were minor combatants in the late 2270s: the Wellington-class fighter and the Exeter-class System Defense Boat.

In the 2270s, the UK is very concerned about threats to its own off-Earth holdings in Sol, if France stayed neutral ( SotFA p 32).  Yet all it could afford to build were these relatively inexpensive craft ( compared to the price of cruisers and larger), because by 2280 UK government's tax base has lost 20%.

Yet the next decade, when France is in dire straights ( on the verge of losing the Central Asian War to Manchuria), its long-time ally, the UK, does not come to its aid.  Very strange, as this would have been the perfect time for the UK to earn a "you owe us, France" future favor ( solving the previous paragraph's concern/problem).  Instead France ( with Bavaria and Russia) are bailed out by Japan's entry on their side ( AG p 69) in the conflict.

The UK is following the historical colonial model, where the mother country controls her colonies and demands virtual exclusivity in trade, which has caused unrest ( CA p 24).

Invasion has most of the British fleet in reserve, acting as Earth's second/final defensive line at Beowulf.  Given SotFA's comments that the last UK ships are from the 2270s, then Invasion's positioning of the British fleet only makes sense if these are relatively old ships ( built in the 2260s or earlier).  If the UK actually had modern 2280s/2290s designs, then they would have been on the front line.
 

Conclusion

While many people are dislike the comments in the SotFA, they are consistent with what GDW said happened to Tirane, and the effect of Wellon's independence on the the UK's economy as a whole.

The UK has spent the last 59 years ( 2241 to 2300) stuck paying off the bonds that set up Wellon ( and the part of New Albion that seceded to join it).

Even worse, all the hopeful plans ( new fleet in the 2280s, more new colonies) held by the government and the citizens circa 2240, about the future, were dashed.  The UK's only additional colony was the one started on Joi in the 2250 ( initial setup finished in 2254).