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Kevin Clark ( kevinc AT cnetech DOT com). All Rights Reserved.
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This table extends the erroneous one found on page 94 of the Director's Guide out to 200 years, plus provides unrounded values and the percentage Earth-born.
An initial colony made up of young adults ( 20s and 30s) can easily sustain a "total population" growth rate of 4%. After several decades, though, the presence of children and elderly will cause the overall growth rate of the population to appear to drop ( the adults are just as fertile, but they are now 30-40% of the total population, rather than 95%+ like in the starting years).
While GDW alluded to this fact in the text description on page 94 of the Director's Guide ( the rate drops to 2% after 50 years), in the table on that page they erroneously used "4% forever" rate. This explains the inflated populations you find in GDW's ( now FFE's) Colonial Atlas -- some are larger than their own mother country.
The following table shows the erroneous "4% forever" information,
so that readers can evaluate:
1) articles on this site that constrast/explain the erroneous and corrected data
2) population figures found in GDW's ( now FFE's) products
Colonization Effort ( and Earth-born percentages) Age Heavy EarthB% Median EarthB% Light EarthB% 0 100,000 100.00% 50,000 100.00% 10,000 100.00% 5 257,072 87.52% 114,995 86.96% 25,706 87.53% 10 448,172 78.10% 194,069 77.29% 44,814 78.10% 15 680,674 69.78% 290,275 68.90% 68,061 69.79% 20 963,550 62.27% 407,325 61.38% 96,345 62.28% 25 1,307,713 55.44% 549,735 54.57% 130,756 55.45% 30 1,726,437 49.23% 722,996 48.41% 172,624 49.24% 35 2,100,472 40.47% 933,795 42.84% 223,562 43.61% 40 2,555,542 33.26% 1,190,264 37.81% 285,537 38.52% 45 3,109,204 27.34% 1,502,298 33.28% 360,938 33.94% 50 3,782,820 22.47% 1,881,935 29.23% 452,675 29.82% 55 4,602,376 18.47% 2,343,823 25.60% 564,288 26.14% 60 5,599,492 15.18% 2,905,780 22.37% 700,082 22.85% 65 6,812,635 12.48% 3,589,486 19.50% 865,296 19.94% 70 8,288,609 10.26% 4,421,319 16.96% 1,066,303 17.35% 75 10,084,358 8.43% 5,433,370 14.72% 1,310,859 15.07% 80 12,269,161 6.93% 6,664,686 12.75% 1,608,398 13.06% 85 14,927,308 5.69% 8,162,770 11.03% 1,970,400 11.29% 90 18,161,351 4.68% 9,985,418 9.51% 2,410,832 9.75% 95 22,096,058 3.85% 12,202,949 8.19% 2,946,684 8.40% 100 26,883,231 3.16% 14,900,913 7.05% 3,598,630 7.22% 105 32,707,560 2.60% 18,183,399 6.05% 4,391,823 6.20% 110 39,793,745 2.14% 22,177,045 5.19% 5,356,862 5.32% 115 48,415,172 1.76% 27,035,926 4.44% 6,530,980 4.56% 120 58,904,457 1.44% 32,947,499 3.79% 7,959,474 3.89% 125 71,666,277 1.19% 40,139,830 3.24% 9,697,455 3.33% 130 87,192,982 0.97% 48,890,401 2.76% 11,811,975 2.84% 135 106,083,593 0.80% 59,536,809 2.35% 14,384,613 2.42% 140 129,066,908 0.66% 72,489,793 2.00% 17,514,619 2.06% 145 157,029,626 0.54% 88,249,077 1.70% 21,322,750 1.75% 150 191,050,548 0.44% 107,422,658 1.44% 25,955,924 1.48% 155 232,442,200 0.37% 130,750,249 1.22% 31,592,888 1.26% 160 282,801,475 0.30% 159,131,830 1.04% 38,451,118 1.07% 165 344,071,234 0.25% 193,662,364 0.88% 46,795,203 0.90% 170 418,615,263 0.20% 235,674,038 0.74% 56,947,058 0.76% 175 509,309,471 0.17% 286,787,663 0.63% 69,298,341 0.65% 180 619,652,842 0.14% 348,975,203 0.53% 84,325,565 0.55% 185 753,902,426 0.11% 424,635,855 0.45% 102,608,481 0.46% 190 917,237,572 0.09% 516,688,607 0.38% 124,852,444 0.39% 195 1,115,959,750 0.08% 628,684,855 0.32% 151,915,626 0.33% 200 1,357,735,666 0.06% 764,945,414 0.27% 184,842,126 0.28%
Note: While the DG on page 94 says that a Median Colonization Effort's growth rate falls to 2% after the 50 year mark, GDW's own table on the same page has it remaining at its higher initial percentage. If you drop just the Median Effort to the lower "2% rate after 50 years" rate, then a "4% forever" Light Effort's population will actually start surpassing a Median Effort's, starting at the 127 years of age mark.
So all three Effort's must use the same growth rate percentage patterns ( all use the erroneous "4% forever" or all use the proper "4%, dropping to 2% after 50 years") to stay in logical.
The above extended table keeps all three efforts at the erroneous "4% forever" rate.