Erroneous "4% Forever" Population Table for the 2300AD rpg

Copyright © 2001, 2002, 2004 by Kevin Clark ( kevinc AT cnetech DOT com).  All Rights Reserved.
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http://www.geocities.com/pentapod2300/pop/errpop.htm

This table extends the erroneous one found on page 94 of the Director's Guide out to 200 years, plus provides unrounded values and the percentage Earth-born.

An initial colony made up of young adults ( 20s and 30s) can easily sustain a "total population" growth rate of 4%.  After several decades, though, the presence of children and elderly will cause the overall growth rate of the population to appear to drop ( the adults are just as fertile, but they are now 30-40% of the total population, rather than 95%+ like in the starting years).

While GDW alluded to this fact in the text description on page 94 of the Director's Guide ( the rate drops to 2% after 50 years), in the table on that page they erroneously used "4% forever" rate.  This explains the inflated populations you find in GDW's ( now FFE's) Colonial Atlas -- some are larger than their own mother country.

The following table shows the erroneous "4% forever" information, so that readers can evaluate:
  1) articles on this site that constrast/explain the erroneous and corrected data
  2) population figures found in GDW's ( now FFE's) products

        Colonization Effort ( and Earth-born percentages)

Age          Heavy  EarthB%       Median  EarthB%        Light  EarthB% 
  0        100,000  100.00%       50,000  100.00%       10,000  100.00%
  5        257,072   87.52%      114,995   86.96%       25,706   87.53%
 10        448,172   78.10%      194,069   77.29%       44,814   78.10%
 15        680,674   69.78%      290,275   68.90%       68,061   69.79%
 20        963,550   62.27%      407,325   61.38%       96,345   62.28%
 25      1,307,713   55.44%      549,735   54.57%      130,756   55.45%
 30      1,726,437   49.23%      722,996   48.41%      172,624   49.24%
 35      2,100,472   40.47%      933,795   42.84%      223,562   43.61%
 40      2,555,542   33.26%    1,190,264   37.81%      285,537   38.52%
 45      3,109,204   27.34%    1,502,298   33.28%      360,938   33.94%
 50      3,782,820   22.47%    1,881,935   29.23%      452,675   29.82%
 55      4,602,376   18.47%    2,343,823   25.60%      564,288   26.14%
 60      5,599,492   15.18%    2,905,780   22.37%      700,082   22.85%
 65      6,812,635   12.48%    3,589,486   19.50%      865,296   19.94%
 70      8,288,609   10.26%    4,421,319   16.96%    1,066,303   17.35%
 75     10,084,358    8.43%    5,433,370   14.72%    1,310,859   15.07%
 80     12,269,161    6.93%    6,664,686   12.75%    1,608,398   13.06%
 85     14,927,308    5.69%    8,162,770   11.03%    1,970,400   11.29%
 90     18,161,351    4.68%    9,985,418    9.51%    2,410,832    9.75%
 95     22,096,058    3.85%   12,202,949    8.19%    2,946,684    8.40%
100     26,883,231    3.16%   14,900,913    7.05%    3,598,630    7.22%
105     32,707,560    2.60%   18,183,399    6.05%    4,391,823    6.20%
110     39,793,745    2.14%   22,177,045    5.19%    5,356,862    5.32%
115     48,415,172    1.76%   27,035,926    4.44%    6,530,980    4.56%
120     58,904,457    1.44%   32,947,499    3.79%    7,959,474    3.89%
125     71,666,277    1.19%   40,139,830    3.24%    9,697,455    3.33%
130     87,192,982    0.97%   48,890,401    2.76%   11,811,975    2.84%
135    106,083,593    0.80%   59,536,809    2.35%   14,384,613    2.42%
140    129,066,908    0.66%   72,489,793    2.00%   17,514,619    2.06%
145    157,029,626    0.54%   88,249,077    1.70%   21,322,750    1.75%
150    191,050,548    0.44%  107,422,658    1.44%   25,955,924    1.48%
155    232,442,200    0.37%  130,750,249    1.22%   31,592,888    1.26%
160    282,801,475    0.30%  159,131,830    1.04%   38,451,118    1.07%
165    344,071,234    0.25%  193,662,364    0.88%   46,795,203    0.90%
170    418,615,263    0.20%  235,674,038    0.74%   56,947,058    0.76%
175    509,309,471    0.17%  286,787,663    0.63%   69,298,341    0.65%
180    619,652,842    0.14%  348,975,203    0.53%   84,325,565    0.55%
185    753,902,426    0.11%  424,635,855    0.45%  102,608,481    0.46%
190    917,237,572    0.09%  516,688,607    0.38%  124,852,444    0.39%
195  1,115,959,750    0.08%  628,684,855    0.32%  151,915,626    0.33%
200  1,357,735,666    0.06%  764,945,414    0.27%  184,842,126    0.28%

Note: While the DG on page 94 says that a Median Colonization Effort's growth rate falls to 2% after the 50 year mark, GDW's own table on the same page has it remaining at its higher initial percentage.  If you drop just the Median Effort to the lower "2% rate after 50 years" rate, then a "4% forever" Light Effort's population will actually start surpassing a Median Effort's, starting at the 127 years of age mark.

So all three Effort's must use the same growth rate percentage patterns ( all use the erroneous "4% forever" or all use the proper "4%, dropping to 2% after 50 years") to stay in logical.

The above extended table keeps all three efforts at the erroneous "4% forever" rate.


Go back to: [ "Population Demographics ..." Menu ]
Last Update: 2004 Aug 16
First Online: 2002 Nov 17
Pentapod's World of 2300AD - http://www.geocities.com/pentapod2300/
Website maintained by: Kevin Clark ( kevinc AT cnetech DOT com)


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