The number of surgeries in a hospital for the past five years is as follows:
Year
Population
Number of surgeries
2000
5,10,000
45
2001
5,30,000
47
2002
5,40,000
54
2003
5,70,000
55
2004
5,80,000
61
Predict the number of surgeries in 2005 by a) plotting a graph and extrapolating visually b) using the grand average c) using a three period moving average d) using exponential smoothing with smoothing factor alpha = 0.3 and assuming the initial prediction to be 44 e) assuming a linear trend for the number of surgeries with respect to time f) assuming that a causal relationship exists between the population of the city and the number of surgeries and the population for the next year is estimated to be 6,00,000. Discuss the appropriateness of the forecasting methods used.
Ans: b) 52 c) 57 d) 53 e) 64 f) 64
A patient visited a hospital. He spent two minutes taking a token from the reception. Then he started to wait for his turn to meet the doctor. After 50 minutes, he was able to meet the doctor. The doctor examined him and instructed for a blood test. Within five minutes, he was at the laboratory. The sample was taken immediately, and he was asked to wait. After forty five minutes, the result was handed over to him. Again, he rushed to the doctor. He had to wait again as another patient was being examined. Within another ten minutes, that was completed and he could meet the doctor. The doctor glanced at the lab result and prescribed the medicines. In five minutes, he was at the pharmacy counter. The purchase of medicines and payment took ten minutes, and he was able to leave for home. Determine the throughput efficiency for this patient.
Ans: 17%
A factory needs to make screws. They can be made by an ordinary lathe which costs Rs 1,00,000/- when the per unit production cost will be Rs 10/-. If made by a semiautomatic lathe costing Rs 5,00,000/-, the per unit production cost will be Rs 5/-. Determine the volume of screw production at which the two processes are indifferent to the total cost.
Ans: 80,000 Nos