Week 4 NCAAF Rankings
September 12, 2004:
Well, here we are again; time for my college football rankings. This week will be much
tougher than last without a doubt. It went from no top 25 teams losing to a whopping six. Six!
Plus there were some--like Georgia, Texas, and Ohio State--that had to fight surprisingly hard
for a win. This week was just a preview of some of the surprises to come this year.
And so, without further delay, here are my new Week 4 rankings for college football:
#1: Oklahoma (previously 2nd)
Just like last week, I'm putting Oklahoma up here at number one. And just like last
week, I don't expect them to get it. Then why put them up there? Although both they and USC
had convincing wins, Oklahoma is the team capable of the best year. They still have Jason White,
last year's Heisman winner, and unlike last year he's fully healthy. They have a great chance of
going undefeated--and with this win I'm now convinced they will. However, don't be surprised if
they do get shocked once, either against Texas or against a hungry underdog. Either way, they're
my pick to get the national championship this year.
#2: USC (previously 1st)
Obviously if USC isn't first, they have to be second. Their 49-0 win over Colorado
State proves that they're still one of the best teams in the country. However, don't forget that
they have lost some key players. Although they have an easy schedule (the only ranked team
they face is California), if they get too overconfident some of the borderline teams (like Oregon
State) could hand them an upset. I still think they'll lose two or three somewhere down the road,
and therefore they should give their spot up to Oklahoma.
#3: Georgia (no change)
This one was tough. Although Georgia did struggle against South Carolina, they still
won. And, if you watched any of the ESPN coverage, you know that many expected the hungry
South Carolina to pose problems for Georgia. But they still won, and that's the key. Georgia
should have a great season, losing possibly only one game to a hungrier underdog. I almost boosted
LSU up into this spot, but there's one big kicker why I didn't: on October 2nd, Georgia faces LSU.
And I see no reason why Georgia won't take down the co-national champions.
#4: LSU (no change)
Despite a 53-3 routing of Arkansas State, LSU will have to settle with fourth once again.
And it's mainly because of their schedule. Having lost too many players and the key underdog
position they had last year, LSU should have a tough time beating teams like Georgia and Florida.
In fact, as soon as next week they could get their first loss. They'll have to go to Auburn, where
the 19th ranked team will be trying hard to get the W.
#5: Miami (no change)
Miami too shouldn't be going anywhere this week. Granted, I've been saying Miami
will have a tough season because they've lost too many players. And I still think that. But so far
so good. With the 6th and 7th teams losing, and with the 8th and 9th teams having trouble, there's
no room for Miami. And, for now, they should stay at number 5. Keep in mind, though, that
despite having an easy schedule, like LSU they'll have to face some borderline teams that could pull
off the upset.
#6: Florida State (no change)
Again a team that won't change. And it is strange that despite a loss FSU won't change.
However, although I did pick FSU to win against Miami, I and everyone else should have known
they wouldn't win. Although a loss, it was an inevitable loss, and now they can look ahead to the
rest of their schedule. Although there are plenty of ranked teams (like Virginia, Maryland, and
Clemson) they need to worry about, there's only one I see as a near-guaranteed loss: Florida.
#7: West Virginia (previously 10th)
Didn't I tell you that WVU would boost up this year? They have a great team and an
easy schedule (their biggest foes are Maryland and Virginia Tech, both who will be underdogs).
And, with a 45-20 whipping of Central Florida, they showed that they deserve to be placed
above teams like Michigan (who lost), Texas (who struggled), and Ohio State (who also struggled).
#8: Florida (previously 11th)
You probably knew with all my "no changes" I would start pulling out some surprises,
right? Well, the eighth spot for Florida shouldn't be much of a suprise. Although they have a
very tough schedule (including Georgia, LSU, and Florida State), I think they can win at least
one of those games (Florida State), and possibly also the LSU and/or Georgia game(s). They have
a great squad and that always great-to-have underdog position. They could be this year's LSU.
And, with a 49-10 defeat of Eastern Michigan, they're well on their way.
#9: Texas (previously 8th)
Although Texas did come out with the win, they had to struggle for it. With a bare 22-20
win over Arkansas, Texas didn't look all that impressive. However, they're still a top-ten team.
And they only have one guaranteed loss on their schedule: Oklahoma. Although some other teams
like Oklahoma State and Missouri have a fair chance of shocking Texas, it will be tough for them to
do so.
#10: Michigan (previously 7th)
I know, I must be certifiably insane to be an Ohio State fan and rank Michigan above the
all too deserving OSU, right? Wrong. As I've said before, Michigan is a great team that could pull
through the season with just one loss. And although they did lose to a hungrier Notre Dame 28-20,
as long as they win ever other game they have a shot at the national championship. And although
it will be tough with four ranked teams on their schedule, as long as they take it one game at a time
they could beat them all (including Ohio State, sadly). Unfortunately though, I see a 9-2 record
much more realistic.
#11: California (previously 13th)
Here's another shocker, California in 11th. But with a 41-14 routing of New Mexico
State they proved they're a team to reckon with. They do have a pretty easy schedule, with only
one big game at USC. And although they will be huge underdogs in that game, they have a chance
of getting revenge for last year. This should be a great California team.
#12: Ohio State (previously 9th)
It may seem strange that my own team wins and I knock them down in the rankings.
But it's with good reason. Ohio State only beat Marshall 24-21 on a miracle field goal. And if they
almost lost to Marshall, what are they supposed to do against Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and
Purdue? Without Krenzel, there's not much they can do, as sad as that is.
#13: Iowa (previously 12th)
Although Iowa didn't have a convincing win over Iowa State yesterday, they're still
a team to reckon with. They do have a pretty tough schedule though--one that includes Ohio
State and Michigan.
#14: Utah (previously 16th)
My bumping up of Utah may be a little surprising. However, they did have a nice
23-6 win over Arizona. Plus, they probably have the easiest schedule out of all the ranked
teams. They don't face any ranked teams. None!
#15: Tennessee (no change)
With a 42-17 win over UNLV, Tennessee has shown how great a team they are.
They should struggle early, though. Their next game is at Florida, and to start off October they
face Auburn and Georgia. They should lose to both Florida and Georgia, and they may get
upset by Auburn. Fortunately, though, after Georgia it should be smooth sailing for Tennessee.
#16: Kansas State (previously 14th)
Although Kansas State did lose (rather miserably) to Fresno State, they aren't falling down
too far, thanks to losses by both Missouri and Clemson. Also, they have an easy schedule, playing
only two ranked teams: Oklahoma (which they should lose) and Missouri (which they should win).
#17: Missouri (no change)
Despite the 24-14 loss to Troy, Missouri will not change positions. The only real
questions on their schedule are Texas and Kansas State, and so, because of the easy schedule (and
the fact that so many others lost yesterday), Missouri will stay in 17th.
#18: Auburn (previously 19th)
With a 43-14 win over Mississippi State, Auburn moves up one spot. However, they
can't overtake Missouri for the 17th spot because they have the poor luck to face LSU, Georgia,
and Tennessee--every game of which they should lose.
#19: Virginia (previously 20th)
Virginia got their second win by trampling North Carolina 56-24. With that, they can
move up a spot. Virginia really only has two inevitable losses ahead of them: one at Florida
State and one versus Miami.
#20: Wisconsin (previously 22th)
Wisconsin, who beat UNLV 18-3 yesterday, should have a pretty good season. Like
Virginia, they too only have two inevitable losses: one at Ohio State and one at Iowa. However,
they will also have to play one versus Minnesota and one at Purdue, both very questionable games.
#21: Maryland (no change)
Maryland's 45-22 win over Temple has changed my mind about them. Although they do
have a tough schedule (including games against West Virginia, Virginia, and Florida State), as long
as they win the ones they should they'll be fine.
#22: Minnesota (previously 24th)
Minnesota's 37-21 win over Illinois State was good enough to give them 22nd. They have
a so-so schedule, with only three games (one at Michigan, one at Wisconsin, and one versus Iowa)
they should lose, and they may be able to beat Wisconsin and/or Iowa. It's no wonder why some
analysts are saying Minnesota may be able to win the Big Ten.
#23: Clemson (previously 18th)
Clemson's 28-24 loss to Georgia Tech may not seem too big, but it is to me. It changes
them from ACC contenders to pretenders. And with their schedule (at Florida State, at Miami, at
Virginia, and versus Maryland), Clemson should have a disappointing year.
#24: Purdue (previously 23rd)
I feel really bad to put Purdue this low. In their two wins, they've outscored their
opponents a mind-boggling 110-7. But despite these two wins they're probably the most unlucky
team out there because of their schedule. Just look at their remaining schedule: at Illinois, at Notre
Dame, at Penn State, versus Wisconsin, versus Michigan, at Northwestern, at Iowa, versus Ohio
State, and versus Indiana. They'll be lucky if they can finish the season with a 7-4 record.
#25: Boise State (previously unranked)
It's not all that common that an unranked team gets into the top 25. But if Boise State
doesn't do it, then it has to be some sort of conspiracy. In Week 3's poll, Boise State just
barely missed beating out Oregon for number 25. And now that Oregon's lost, it leaves the door
wide open. Boise State has beat Idaho 65-7, and yesterday they beat an Oregon State team that
almost upset LSU. And have you seen their schedule? Their toughest opponents are BYU
and Fresno State!
Teams left out:
Obviously, I've left out Oregon. With a 30-24 loss to Indiana, they don't deserve a
ranking. Other than that, the biggest team left out is Fresno State.
Like always, this has just been my opinion. You may or may not agree with it (you
probably don't). And I can almost guarantee you the real rankings won't look like mine. They
never do. (But that doesn't mean they shouldn't!)
MLB
NBA
NFL
NCAAF
NCAAB
NHL
PGA
Tennis
Other
Links
