NCAAF Predictions
August 28, 2004:
College football starts tonight as USC takes on Virginia Tech at 7:30 p.m. I'm a little
late, but I've still got time to make my predictions. In an ESPN/USA Today coaches poll, USC
is, not surprisingly, first, followed by (also not surprisingly) Oklahoma, LSU, and Georgia. In
fifth is Miami. Sixth is Florida State, seventh is Michigan, and eighth is Texas. OSU and
Florida round out the top ten. But, remember, these rankings don't always hold up. Who will
really have the best year of these ten? And what unranked team will shock everyone by
playing surprisingly well? I'll let you know what I think.
I'll go down through the line, starting with USC. USC is a spectacular team. However,
they've lost a few key players, so I think they'll go down the same path Miami and OSU went
down last year. They will have a great year, but they'll suffer two or three losses. Oklahoma,
meanwhile, will get revenge for last year's late defeats by having a great season. They have the
team, so they have a chance of going undefeated. However, I think they'll get at least one loss,
maybe two or three. LSU, at number three, is a big question to me. Last year they shocked
everyone. And although they still have a great squad, I think they'll get a little unlucky this
year. Look for LSU to lose two to four games, possibly even more. Next, in fourth, is Georgia.
Georgia may be down in fourth, but they seem to be most peoples' favorites to have a great
season. I, too, like the chances of this team. I don't think they'll go undefeated, but I do think
they'll lose only one or two games--three at most.
I've heard an analyst say that there is a "shelf" below these four teams, which is very
true indeed. Miami and Florida State may both disappoint people this season. Miami
continues to lose players, and will probably lose at least three or four games this year. Florida
State is a good team, but (and I hold last year's record as proof) very overrated. Florida State
may be able to pull together a 10-2 or 11-2 record, but a record with at least three or four
losses is much more realistic. But then we get to Michigan. Michigan was an amazing team
last year. (Remember they played USC in the Rose Bowl.) They still have the players, and
(as much as I hate to admit this, since I'm an OSU fan) I think they have a great shot at winning
the championship. I don't think they (or, obviously, anyone for that matter) will go undefeated
either, but I do think they will lose only one or two, or maybe three, games.
Now we start to hit the teams that have less of a shot. Texas, at eighth, is a great team,
but I think they will be one of many teams to lose two or three games. OSU may have won
the championship in 2003 (go Buckeyes!), but they've lost Craig Krenzel, a key quarterback.
Without him, their best hope is to win eight or nine games (maybe ten) and possibly get in one
of the bowl games. And, rounding out the top ten is Florida. Florida got very few points
(compared to the 1-9 teams), but they're still a good team. They could be the next LSU; the
next team to have a surprisingly good season and win the championship. However, that does
not mean I think they will. I think they can scrape through with two or three losses, but they
do have a chance of falling, losing more like four or five. But, if I had to bet on it, I would say
look for them to lose three.
Next are the teams that I think can shock nonbelievers. Obviously, the 11-14 teams
have the best chance of sneaking into the top 10 before the season is over. West Virginia made
a spectacular run at the end of the year last year, causing Virginia Tech to fall drastically. If
they ruined VT's dreams, why can't they ruin someone else's? I look for them to carry that
surge into this season, losing only two or three games. Then, the 12-14 teams--Iowa,
Kansas State, and Tennessee--also have shots at good seasons. However, I don't think any
will have the seasons they're hoping for. None will finish in the top 5, and I think that only
one will finish in the top 10. As for teams 15-25, I don't see any that I think, in particular,
can shock the world. However, there is one unranked team, Nebraska, that can be quite a
shocker. They just barely missed getting ranked. They have a new coach and good players,
and I think they can have a good season. They will probably lose three or four, possibly
five, but their record will earn them a spot in the top 20.
So, in summary, I'll give you what I believe the rankings will be at the end of the
year. Georgia, Michigan, and Oklahoma will all be battling for a number one spot. I think
Georgia will take it, with Oklahoma number two and Michigan a very close third. However,
don't be surprised if Michigan upsets Oklahoma of that position. Then there's a shelf.
Following that shelf, there will be several teams with two or three losses. USC will be
fourth, with Texas in fifth, and LSU in sixth. West Virginia can get seventh, while Florida
takes eighth, Iowa gets ninth, and Miami finishes tenth. OSU and Florida State will just
miss the top ten, while Nebraska hovers around the 16th or 17th spot.
The champion? Georgia. I hate to go with the rest of the pack, but I really think
they have the best shot. It could go to Oklahoma or Michigan, or maybe one of the other
teams like USC, but Georgia definitely has the best chance. And although I don't think
there will be split national champions again this year, I wouldn't be surprised.
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