Updating the Lakers' Mess
July 11, 2004:
Well, it's official. Rudy T. is coaching the Lakers. And now Miami has surprised
everyone with a trade offer for Shaq. Shaq has reportedly agreed, and it appears the Lakers
plan on agreeing too. Will this deal with the Heat follow through? And what does that mean
to Kobe Bryant and the rest of the Lakers?
First and foremost, we need to know if this trade will be in the books soon. The
Miami Heat's offer came to a surprise for most people. I, as well as many others, thought
only the Knicks, Mavericks, and Kings would be able to, or--rather--willing too, afford Shaq.
But it looks like we were wrong. The Heat have decided to near-bankrupt themselves in
order to improve their team--a team that placed fourth in the eastern conference in 2003,
was able to take their first series from the Hornets, and, in the second round, gave the Pacers
a good fight. Although surprising, I think it's a good idea. Shaq is one of the greatest players
in the NBA, if not the greatest player, and would be a dominant force in Miami. He would
help the Heat have a great season in 2004, possibly making a run at the championship in the
playoffs.
But if it's a good trade for the Heat, is it good for the Lakers? Yes. Shaq has
promised he won't play in L.A., and he's willing to do whatever he can to keep that promise.
So the Lakers need to be most concerned with trading Shaq for some quality players to back
up Kobe, their so-called star player. This is a good trade, although the Lakers may try for
another player, future draft pick, or money to even it up.
The question is, will they agree? I see a 90+ percent chance of them agreeing unless
(and this is a big unless) some other team like the Mavericks make another offer. The Mavs
may decide to give up Nowitski for Shaq, and if they do, the Lakers could very well agree
with the Mavs. Then there's the confusion of counter-offers, etc. But either way, I see a
90% chance Shaq's in Miami next year (imagine me saying that a week ago!), a 5% chance
he's back with L.A., and a 5% chance he's elsewhere.
So what does this mean for Kobe? Should Shaq be traded, Kobe will probably
still exercise his free agent options, but will most likely stay with the Lakers (as Jason Kidd
did with the Nets last year). So the probabilities, overall, are also 90-5-and-5 here, with a
90% chance Kobe stays in L.A., a 5% chance he goes to the Clippers, and a 5% chance he's
elsewhere.
What about everyone else? It's still near absolute that Gary Payton will be in L.A.
Karl Malone will probably be fed up with two things: (1) he didn't win last year, and (2) he
probably won't win a ring next year, with Shaq gone. I would say there's a 75% chance
the Mailman retires, along with about a 15% chance he stays, and a 10% chance he's traded
again.
So, with this whole mix-up, can the Lakers win the championship next year? I
doubt it. They'll probably still make the playoffs, although they could be a sixth or seventh
seed. They may win a series or two in the playoffs, but the chance that Rudy T. will take
the Lakers all the way is very slim--maybe 10%.
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