"There's No 'K' in 'L.A.'"
July 6, 2004:
"Coach K," aka Mike Krzyzewski, coach of NCAA basketball's Duke Blue Devils,
has reportedly decided to stay with Duke next season. The Lakers offered him a $40 million
dollar contract to be their new head coach, but after spending plenty of time thinking about it,
Coach K has politely declined the offer. Now who will be the Lakers' next choice for head
coach? And how does this affect the Kobe/Shaq controversy?
Let's tackle this Laker mess by starting with the head coaching job. Who's it going
to now? Well, most sports analysts are saying Rudy Tomjanovich. There may be a few other
candidates, but none as good as he. I don't think it's possible they'll be pursuing any other
college coaches, because frankly there is no college coach that is willing to and can coach the
Lakers. The Lakers seem to be trying to settle on a coach soon--most say by the end of this
week. And I'd be willing to bet it's "Rudy T."
How would that affect Kobe and Shaq? Let's start with Shaq. There are only three
teams that I know of that could afford Shaq: the Kings, the Mavericks, and the Knicks. The
Kings already have a great franchise, and so far they seem pretty reluctant to change anything.
And so I just don't see them contacting their rivals in order to switch up their team. The
Knicks want him--there's no doubt about that--but chances are they won't be able to come up
with a trade that will satisfy the Lakers. And so it's up to the Mavericks. They say they do
not want to trade Nowitski. But they do want Shaq. Personally, I think they are simply
trying to get the better end of the deal. If they have to, they probably will trade Nowitski.
But if they decide they don't want Shaq that badly, the Knicks may try to make a good deal.
There's a possibility--very slight though--that Shaq will be a Knick, especially on the off chance
Phil Jackson goes to coach the Knicks. (But don't get your hopes up, because the odds on that
are about 1 in 1,000.) But if the Mavericks refuse, Shaq may be told just to suck it up and stay
in L.A.--which is what the Lakers are hoping for anyway. He won't sacrifice his contract, and
if he has to, he will be willing to stay in L.A.
Then what about Kobe? The Lakers want to keep Kobe, and Kobe probably wants to
stay with the Lakers. However, if the Lakers can't trade Shaq, then Kobe may go to another
team--most likely, the Clippers, although it could be another small franchise. Although, Kobe
may be told just to suck it up and stay with the Lakers, too.
So, let's see. There's about a 95% chance Rudy T. will be coaching L.A. next year.
There's an 80% chance Kobe is staying with the Lakers. If he does, there's a 45% chance Shaq
is too, but there's also a 45% chance Shaq goes to the Mavs, and a 10% chance he goes to the
Kings, Knicks, or elsewhere. Given the 15% chance Kobe goes to the Clippers, and the 5%
chance he isn't with some L.A. team next year, there's an 80% chance Shaq's in L.A., a 15%
chance he's with the Mavericks, and a 5% chance he's somewhere else. Then there's still the
70% chance that Karl Malone is retiring, as well as the 10% chance he'll want traded. Don't
worry though, there's about a 99.99% chance Gary Payton's still in L.A., so they'll at least be
keeping one Hall of Famer. Got all that? Good.
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