Can Ichiro Break the Record?
September 3, 2004:
The Seattle Mariners' season has indisputably been a bust. Although they haven't reached
the playoffs since that spectacular season in 2001 when they won 116 games, in the past couple
years the Mariners have been able to lead the division at the All Star break and end the season
with a nice 93-69 record. But not this year. They're in last place, currently with a 51-82 record.
But, still, it's not all bad for the Mariners. Although they don't get to witness the
excitement of October, they do get something close to it--they get to watch their own Ichiro
Suzuki's attempt at breaking the single-season hits record.
Our story starts in 1920. George Sisler, of the St. Louis Browns, sets the single-season
hits record with 257. A record that was destined to stay for, at least, 84 years.
And now we flash forward to today. Through 133 games for the Mariners, Ichiro (who
played in all but three games) currently has 217 hits--just 40 short of the record. Will he be able
to break Sisler's record? Well, no matter what happens it should be a close hunt. Whether he can
do it or not is yet to be seen. But I will use a variety of varibles to test the chances of him
breaking that famed record.
217 hits in 130 games. "What exactly does that mean?" you may ask. Well, obviously,
that means that Ichiro is hitting an average of 1.67 hits every game. If he plays the other 29 games
scheduled, he should get at least 48 more hits. That would bring his total to 265 hits, breaking the
record and setting a new one that would be virtually unbeatable (unless he himself breaks it). If
he keeps hitting at his current pace, he could still miss five games and tie the record, or miss four
and break it. In other words, as long as he's healthy and consistent, he'll break it.
Or we could look at it another way. Ichiro has already had a ton of at bats this year
(580 to be exact). In the last three years, he has averaged 673 AB's a year. If he does only reach
his average for at bats this year (which is very possible, since if he gets close you know they'll
walk him more), he will only get 93 more at bats. With a batting average of .374, that's only
34 or 35 more hits, which puts him shy of Sisler's record. And, if he's walked more frequently
or gets injured, he could see even less at bats and, accordingly, even less hits.
But, now comes another factor. Ichiro has improved since the start of the season. In
April, he went 26-102 (a .254 average). But in May, he turned it around by going 50-127 (.394).
He slumped a little in June again (29-106 / .274), but quickly turned it around in July (52-118 /
.441) and August (56-121 / .463). And so far in September he's 5-8. Even if he only gets 100
at bats, if he hits .400 he can tie the record, and anything at or above .410 can break it. The way
he's hit in July and August, he shouldn't have any problems doing that. And, even if he gets
93 at bats (like in the above scenario), he needs to hit .431 or better, which he's already bettered
the last two months. And if he gets another 120 at bats, he just needs to hit .333. Yes, I know
these batting averages are all high, but if Ichiro stays as hot as he's been, he can do it easily.
Obviously, he's on pace to shatter the record. But don't think so fast that it'll be easy
for Ichiro to do. He has one big problem: the possibility of very few at bats. The Mariners'
remaining games includes three in Chicago, two against Cleveland, four against Boston, seven
versus Anaheim, seven against Oakland, and six versus Texas. What does that mean? It means
the Mariners should struggle greatly offensively, so, in other words, Ichiro may not get as many
at bats as he would against--say--the Royals. Also, Boston, Anaheim, Oakland, and Texas may
all be fighting for playoff spots, as may Chicago and Cleveland if they get hot. They are more
likely to walk Ichiro. Of course, though, Ichiro's not exactly the kind of guy you walk. (If you
tried to he'd probably still reach out and hit the ball into center field.) And if Ichiro gets injured
for even just three or four games, that could possibly shatter his chances.
That all being said, I still think he will do it. He'll have to be very consistent. Although
he hasn't been very consistent this season, he usually is. Now that he's found his batting groove,
he will most likely be able to keep it up. And although injury is possible, in my mind it's
unlikely. Ichiro isn't the type of guy to get hurt easily. And, like I said, it will come down to at
bats. Although the Mariners will definitely struggle at the end, he should still get an average of
about 4 AB's a game. And, for Ichiro, that should be plenty to break the record. And although
I could see why they would walk Ichiro, I don't foresee that they will.
When it's all said and done, there's about a 3:2 chance Ichiro can break the record. He
should end somewhere in the 260's. The even bigger question, though, is how long will that
record last? I can only see one person breaking it, and that's Ichiro himself. He has the talent
to hit .400+ in a season, and, unless he finally scares pitchers into walking him, he can get 260
hits any season he wants to. Even if he doesn't get it this year, we all know he'll be back to try
for it in 2005.
Right now, though, it's all up to Ichiro to break the record. All we can do is sit at home
in front of the TV and cheer him on. Go Ichiro!
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