MLB Award Picks
August 20, 2004:
Since I updated my predictions for teams, now I guess I will have to update my Award
winner predictions too. Can Barry Bonds get his seventh MVP Award? And can the Rocket get
his seventh Cy Young Award? Or can some surprising new players take the awards? I'll break it
down, from Managers to Rookies to Cy Youngs to MVP's, and for both the AL and the NL.
Let's start with the NL MVP candidates. I know that, for whoever votes, this will
definitely be tough. Statistically, the best are Pujols, Bonds, and Abreu, followed by Rolen, Beltre,
Beltran, Helton, Edmonds, Dunn, etc. I think Abreu will be largely overlooked (like he was in All-
Star voting) because he's on a losing team and he isn't really a power hitter. So statistically Bonds,
Pujols, and Rolen are in a dead heat. However, I wouldn't vote for Bonds because he's a Giant, and
the Giants aren't going to make the playoffs. And although Pujols may have the best numbers, I
would vote for Rolen for a couple reasons. First off, he has more RBI's (105) than any other NL
batter, and if it wasn't for him Pujols' hits wouldn't have become runs. Secondly, he's a great third
baseman. First base isn't too hard a position compared to third. That makes Rolen's numbers
(like 89 runs, 29 home runs, and a .328 average) that much more amazing. Plus, he's probably the
best third baseman not just offensively, but defensively. He could win a Gold Glove. Therefore,
I would vote him MVP. Unfortunately, though, I think Bonds will get it, for three reasons. For
one, he gets walked so much that his home run numbers are that much more amazing. Also, he's
had such a great career. And finally, for the simple reason that Cards fans will split votes between
Rolen, Pujols, and Edmonds, whereas Giants fans have only one choice: Bonds.
The AL MVP is also a tricky vote. The top three statistically are Guerrero, Sheffield,
and A-Rod. Tejada, Mora, Ortiz, and Ramirez are close, but they won't be getting the cigar. I still
believe Guerrero, despite his recent struggles, deserves it. He has by far the most hits, and arguably
is more valuable to the Angels (who've struggled through injuries) than Sheffield or A-Rod are to
the Yankees. However, I think he too will be overlooked. These two home-run-hitting Yankees
will get most of the votes. Guerrero does have a chance of winning if he finishes extremely strong
and all the Yankee votes cancel out (like with the Cards). But Guerrero is no Bonds. Whichever
Yank, Sheffield or A-Rod, has the strongest finish will win the MVP. And I'm willing to bet that
will be Sheffield.
Now for the NL Cy Young. There are many candidates: Schmidt, Johnson, Gagne,
Sheets, Benitez, Oswalt, Clemens, etc. Unfortunately, though, I don't think Clemens has a
legitimate shot at number seven. Schmidt obviously has the commanding lead with 15 wins, close
to 200 K's, and a 2.52 ERA. The only pitcher I see that even has a shot at beating Schmidt is
Gagne, but I just don't think he's been good enough to do it.
Next up, AL Cy Young. Leading it is Santana, Rivera, Martinez, Schilling, Nathan, and
Mulder. Nathan, though, has little shot of winning it, since he'll be overshadowed (as he should be)
by Rivera. Martinez and Schilling have shots, but to me it comes down to Rivera, Santana, and
Mulder. Who's most likely to win? Mulder. His overall numbers may not be great, but the 16
wins sticks out in my, and others', minds. If Santana can keep up his hot streak, though, he may
be able to catch up. Regardless, Rivera probably won't win it.
Now for the Manager Awards. Let's start with NL. Although there is a long list of
excellent managers who deserve recognition (Alou, Cox, Howe, McKeon, Baker, Bochy, Tracy,
etc.) no own deserves it more than Tony LaRussa. The St. Louis Cardinals were expected to
be .500 at best, and yet they're on pace for well over 100 wins. The Cardinals will win the World
Series, and LaRussa will win NL Manager of the Year.
Next is the AL. Once again, there is a long list of managers: Torre, Scioscia, Piniella,
Macha, Trammel, Wedge, Gardenhire, Showalter, and Francona. Trammel, despite turning around
the Detroit Tigers from a 43 win season to a probable 70+ win season, is too unknown to win the
award. Piniella has done the best he could with the Devil Rays, but he won't receive the recognition
that's due to him. The Red Sox have struggled too much for Francona to win it. Gardenhire and
Macha have led their teams to good seasons, but it will be the players, not the managers, recognized.
And although Wedge has had a terrific year in Cleveland, it's just short of Manager of the Year
status. So it's essentially down to Torre, Scioscia, and Showalter. Right now, I believe Showalter
deserves it the most, but I'm not sure he'll get it. It all depends upon who gets to, and who gets
farthest in, the playoffs. If the Angels or the Rangers can end strong, get to the playoffs, and win
a series or two, their manager might get it. However, if the Yankees reach another World Series,
like I believe they will, Joe Torre will win. But it all depends upon the sprint to the finish. Either
way, though, I would be willing to bet on Joe Torre.
Rookies aren't my strong suit, so I'll just discuss the Rookie of the Year awards briefly.
There are really only two names that stick out in my mind: Eric Byrnes of the Oakland A's, and
Jason Bay of the Pittsburgh Pirates. If these two can finish strong, and if no one else creeps up on
them, they will win the Rookie of the Year Awards.
That's it for the Awards! I'll end by saying one thing I think everyone can agree on: those
who vote who get these Awards have a tough, tough task ahead of them!
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