Jones' Home Page - NFL Season Wrap-Up

The 2003-04 season is over and my attention to sports will change to the NHL and the NCAA tourneys, as soon as I put a cap on the NFL here. My predictions for the season picking straight were correct 67% of the time (179-88), while my picks against the spread wound up a game under 50% (38-39-2). The last game of the season was a great one, and typical for my season... a win straight with New England, and a loss against the spread. I say it was typical because once again I went with my gut rather than following my computer Power Ratings, which predicted a Patriot win with Carolina covering the spread.

The final rankings of NFL teams' Power Ratings is shown on the right, with the playoff teams highlighted in yellow. It's interesting to note how some playoff teams probably got there by means of playing third or fourth-place schedules, and the pretenders rightly lost in the first round they played. Teams high on the list that didn't make the playoffs (San Francisco, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Chicago) should show promise next year, depending on off-season moves. Needless to say I'm happily surprised to see Green Bay as high as they are, and next season should also be a good one for my Packers.

So far as analysis of my season's picks is concerned, there were some teams that I really had a handle on. There were others with whom I didn't have a clue. The results of the best and the worst of my picks below include games picked straight up and against the spread.

Teams I played wellTeams that baffled me
1. Jacksonville (15-3)28. [tie] Philadelphia (11-10)
2. Pittsburgh (17-4)28. [tie] San Diego (11-10)
3. Kansas City (20-5)30. Cleveland (10-10)
4. Arizona (16-4)31. Cincinnati (9-10)
5. Baltimore (15-4-1)32. Minnesota (7-12)

On the plus side, it was easy to win a lot of games with Kansas City and Arizona... just pick with the Chiefs and against the Cards. On the minus side, I lost a lot of games because Philadelphia and Cincinnati did better than I'd thought, San Diego and Cleveland worse than I thought, and worthless Minnesota who consistently won games they should have lost, and lost games they should have won.

As for the Pack, my picks with them were 15-10. I probably should pick more with my head and less with my heart.



Well, that's a wrap. Better luck next year!

Jones' Home Page

Jones' NFL
Power Ratings

Season Final
  1. New England
  2. Green Bay
  3. Tennessee
  4. Seattle
  5. Philadelphia
  6. Indianapolis
  7. San Francisco
  8. Carolina
  9. Baltimore
  10. Kansas City
  11. New Orleans
  12. Pittsburgh
  13. St. Louis
  14. Chicago
  15. Minnesota
  16. Dallas
  17. N.Y. Jets
  18. Cincinnati
  19. Washington
  20. Denver
  21. Miami
  22. Tampa Bay
  23. Buffalo
  24. Jacksonville
  25. Cleveland
  26. Atlanta
  27. Detroit
  28. San Diego
  29. Oakland
  30. Houston
  31. N.Y. Giants
  32. Arizona
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