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At this point in the season some of you may be wondering why some of your players are not performing up to par. You spend countless hours tossing and turning in your sleep just wondering what is wrong is him?!?! Is he nursing an injury? No, there is no information concerning him in any injury list. So what can it be? Nothing is wrong with him physically so why is he still hitting .200? Why is his ERA still over 5? Below you will find a list of players that have extreme trends or tendencies.
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Jose Lima - His record the last 2 years: 37 - 18 with a 3.64 ERA, a WHIP of 1.170 and not to mention 356 K's. Those are great numbers and that's why you drafted him to be the ace of your staff. But after 4 starts this year he's 1 - 3, his ERA is 5.88 and his WHIP is 1.538. What on earth is going on here? Did he just lose it or is he just struggling? His 7 walks means nothing is wrong with his control and while 33 hits allowed are more than his innings pitched (26), Lima has allowed 485 hits in 479 2/3 IP the last 2 years. So if his walks and hits allowed are consistent with his average why is he doing so bad? Good question. Let's take a look at his splits as a starter for the last 2 years.
W L ERA WHIP GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Home 18 8 2.76 1.087 32 238.1 222 73 24 37 200
Road 19 10 4.51 1.251 36 241.1 263 121 40 39 156
Obviously, he has performed better at home than on the road. On the road, his WHIP remained solid but his ERA is almost 2 runs higher and he allowed 41 more hits in only 3 more innings pitched. The difference in home runs allowed is not extremely pronounced but consider this, of his 30 HRs allowed last season only 7 came at home. It may be too early to tell how he will perform this season but keeping in mind that the Astros now play at Enron Field, I would look to trade him ASAP.
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Tony Clark - A notorious slow starter, his average in April is .249 over the last 3 years. If you are looking for him to 'heat' up in May, forget that too. But here's the good news, from June and on his average is .294. Take a look at his splits from '97 - '99.
G AB R H HR RBI AVG
Apr 88 337 42 77 15 59 .228
May 69 240 47 63 15 49 .262
Jun 72 264 39 84 17 59 .318
Jul 79 295 47 85 20 51 .288
Aug 87 332 45 93 16 50 .280
Sept 77 293 41 85 13 50 .290
Unfortunately there is another story behind this as well. The Tigers count on him to produce but given his tendency to start off slow, the Tigers find themselves well out of contention by the time Clark starts to produce. If you do decide to trade for him, I would advise you to wait until the end of May before doing so. Unless your fellow owner hits the panic button and Clark finds himself on waivers, in that case go ahead and grab him.
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Andy Ashby - Never really considered a staff anchor, Ashby was just that for San Diego last year. While his 1999 numbers weren't disappointing (14 - 10, 3.80 ERA, 1.252 WHIP) it was again a tale of two seasons for him. Which has been the case for him throughout his career, great before the All Star break and not so great after. So you are wondering just how bad a pitcher is he in the second half? No, he's not a pitcher who suffers from a total meltdown but for a pitcher with his talents, you always wonder just when will he put a full season together. At 33 years old, it is highly unlikely that he will buck his career trend. Here are his stats for the last 3 seasons.
W L ERA WHIP GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Pre-All Star 23 14 3.02 1.204 49 343 322 115 27 91 221
Post-All Star 17 16 4.59 1.316 45 290.1 312 148 39 70 206
Looking at his numbers, his second half statistics aren't that bad after all. But consider this, with good pitching hard to come by these days there will be some owners willing to overpay for Ashby come mid-season. Talking him up on the league board will help too. Simply put, Ashby is an average pitcher in the second half, you can find pitchers like that on waivers. Deal him for help in another area, grab a competent replacement and just smile all the way to the league championship.
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Chuck Knoblauch - Second baseman come in different flavors. HR hitters: Kent, Alfonzo, Bell. HR & SB guys: R.Alomar, Durham, Biggio, Knoblauch. Speedsters: E.Young, Castillo, Bush, DeShields. There are numerous names I have omitted but one fact remains clear, there is no longer a shortage of quality 2Bs anymore. Depending on the makeup of your team, you may benefit more by having a speedster or a power hitter but having a guy who can do both is a definite plus. Now you wonder why I chose to focus on Knoblauch and not someone else. Take a quick look below and you will see why.
AVG R HR RBI SB
Pre-All Star .273 181 14 92 69
Post-All Star .293 173 30 98 52
These are his splits for 1997 to 1999. His trend shows that his HR stroke doesn't surface until after the All-Star break (13 HRs each of the last 2 years in the 2nd-half). So you can try and maximize your statistics if your current 2B normally produces stellar 1st-half numbers but tails off slighty in the 2nd-half by making a deal for Knoblauch and enjoying his power surge while losing little in stolen bases.
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Todd Helton - Could it be that Helton is another product of Coors Field? So far in his career that assumption is true. But one thing is for sure, he has been unable to hit left-handers. Below you will find his career average versus right-handers and left-handers, you make the call.
AVG AB R H HR RBI SB
vs. Left .267 285 34 76 9 49 3
vs. Right .330 916 171 302 56 173 7
Now back to the Coors field effect. Both Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette were unproven hitters before blossoming into super sluggers. On the other hand, Larry Walker and Andres Galarraga were proven hitters before joining the Rockies. Helton has had the luxury of starting his career off in Colorado but is he a product Coors Field?
AVG AB R H HR RBI SB
Home .364 621 125 226 39 145 4
Road .262 580 80 152 26 77 6
As you can see, his career totals shows that his average is substantially lower on the road and his RBI numbers at home are almost double his road totals. But take into account that his run production on the road may be lower because of the lack of baserunners due in part to the road struggles of the Rockie batters ahead of him in the order. While benching Helton on the road is not an idea that I would suggest, there may be certain situations where substituting another player into the lineup would help more than not.
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