Following a wild X-mas weekend, the NFL playoffs commence without a real clear-cut favorite. Although I would like to retract a statement made by yours truly in a KAC FOOTBALL COLUMN last month--when after a couple of close losses I said "forget about Tennessee" repeating.
Although Baltimore still has to be considered a definite darkhorse, the situation still has to bode well for Tennessee with the #1 seed as well as the Raiders being banged up (though Gruden will never tell you).
History shows since the advent of the 12-team playoff in 1990 that 55% of #1 seeds, 35% of #2 seeds, and 10% of #4 seeds (the top wild card often being better than the worst division champ) make it to the big game (may get in trouble with the league if I dare say the copyrighted phrase "Super Bowl". Keep this in mind while giving a brief rundown...
AFC
1. Tennessee--Probable, as I just said, no one else I really like.
2. Oakland--Doubtful, Hasn't been to the dance in a while and injuries (Gannon, Wheatley, Brown included) catching up.
3. Miami--Remote, Fins in their classic late season swoon, Indy will make quick work of Wanny's boys
4. Baltimore-Questionable, they're laying in the weeds perfectly, one of the best D's of all time.
5. Denver-Remote, if anyone can put a dent in armor of Ray Lewis and Co., Denver is capable with the O-line. Griese a big ? though.
6. Indianapolis-Doubtful, not as sexy a darkhorse as the Rams, but a good bet for a date with TN next week.
NFC-
1. Giants-Doubtful, sure any #1 seed has to be considered a contender, but if Tiki not 100% it may be a very short postseason for NY.
2. Minnesota-Questionable, If C'Pepper can get healthy, they are still very capable. So-so defense hurts though.
3. New Orleans-Doubtful, my NFC darkhorse, very capable of ending STL's season.
4. Philadelphia-Remote, McNabb can't run for his life of find Chad Lewis on every play.
5. Tampa Bay-Questionable, best all around team in conference. Great coach. Turf in Philly worries me, but forget about the below 40 degree curse, they had the Pack beat at Lambeau last week.
6. St. Louis-Questionable, actually the betting favorite in the conference. Bad "D" shows they're not invincible, as six losses, including two to Carolina, attest.
All that said, look for Tampa Bay to host Tennessee in "The Big Game" with the Titans prevailing.
Nice move by Green Bay coach Mike Sherman, FINALLY laying the smackdown on controversial receiver Antonio Freeman, suspending him for the Tampa Bay game. This has become a classic example of an athlete tanking it after receiving a huge contract/signing bonus. Anyone remember Freeman playing through a broken jaw, arm, etc.. Seems like the only event Free bothered to be on time for this year was half-price pitcher night at Rooters in Waukesha (suburban Milwaukee town Chmura made famous with his own shenanigans this year). Freeman has obviously learned well from his mentor Brock Middlebrook (a.k.a Andre Rison) a few years back. It would be great for GB to rid themselves of this cancer but it would cost them a 7M dollar cap figure next year, not boding well for a team already 10 million over after they offer tenders to some other players.
Nice year by Sherman and the boys though, going 9-7 when I had projected 7-9. Never mind that they were consigned to losses at home with both MIN and TB, where potential game-losing FG's went awry. The O-line suddenly looks good and with the exception of the Monday Nighter at CAR, the team was virtually in every game. And that was despite Free's follies and injuries to numerous other starters.
5-10 overall against the spread for me last week, finished at 146-106 for the year v. the number. Picks for this week...
IND -2 over MIA--Don't worry Wanny, we won't be doing the last play over (half-hour later) this week.
NO +6 over STL--six points for a home team in the playoffs just too juicy.
BAL -3 over DEN--Griese will try, painkillers and all, but won't be close to 100 percent.
TB -2 over PHI--Dangerous game considering turf, cold, and crazy Philly fans, but must go with better and more experienced squad.
Bonus Pick:
Oklahoma +12 over Florida State--Way too many points for a championship game, about as rediculous as GB being favored by 13 over DEN in SB32.
Nice brawl by Miami and Florida on Bourbon Street by the way--same ol' Hurricanes. As Jerome Brown once said, "the Japanese did not have dinner with Pearl Harbor before they bombed it..."