• Money Game Equities

			24/21(2) 8/5(2)	+0.244
			55.5%   16.5%  0.7%    44.5%     9.3%   0.4%   CL: +0.185    CF: +0.244
			24/21(2) 6/3(2)	+0.243 ( -0.001)
			55.4%   15.2%  0.7%    44.6%     9.1%   0.3%   CL: +0.172    CF: +0.243
			24/15* 13/10	+0.243 ( -0.001)
			56.2%   15.9%  1.1%    43.8%   12.3%   0.6%   CL: +0.165    CF: +0.243
			24/21(2) 21/15*	+0.234 ( -0.010)
			56.2%   14.9%  1.0%    43.8%   12.1%   0.5%   CL: +0.157    CF: +0.234
			24/21(2) 13/10(2)	+0.224 ( -0.020)
			55.2%   14.5%  0.6%    44.8%     9.1%   0.4%   CL: +0.161    CF: +0.224
			8/5(2) 6/3(2)                  (1296 games)	+0.199 ( -0.045)
			54.5%   18.4%  1.1%    45.5%   13.6%   0.7%   CL: +0.143    CF: +0.199

            Full cubeful rollout, 2592 games, Play: 0-ply/expert, Cube: 2-ply/33%

            • Paul Weaver's Rollouts  (courtesy of G. Cattanach)

			24/21(2) 8/5(2)	+0.193
			24/21(2) 6/3(2)	+0.181 ( -0.008)
			24/21(2) 13/10(2)	+0.167 ( -0.026)
			24/21(2) 21/15*	+0.160 ( -0.033)
			24/15* 13/10	+0.155 ( -0.038)
			8/5(2) 6/3(2)	+0.149 ( -0.044)

            SW4, 3-ply/Precise, cube: 3-ply, Full, 5184 games

            • Volatility after each play

			24/21(2) 8/5(2)	0.081
			24/21(2) 6/3(2)	0.084
			24/15* 13/10	0.136
			24/21(2) 21/15*	0.106
			24/21(2) 13/10(2)	0.076
			8/5(2) 6/3(2)	0.081

In my mind, the choice is essentially between 24/21(2) 8/5(2) and 24/21(2) 6/3(2). After 24/21(2), there will likely be some variations where White can't make his 5-point without leaving a direct shot, so it is clearly better for Red to have a stronger inner-board in that scenario. For this reason, 24/21(2) 13/10(2) looks much inferior to 24/21(2) 8/5(2) or 24/21(2) 6/3(2). 24/21(2) 8/5(2) puts double pressure on White's outfield blots, and makes it harder for White to split next turn. The blot on the 8-point will compensate for having a better inner-board point. This play is my choice for money and at normal scores. 24/21 21/15* is a nice DMP play, but I wouldn't do it in any other situation.

GG

GS

DMP

3a3a