• Match to 7 White (1) vs. Red (2)
Position posted by Douglas Zare [121803]
Pip counts: White: 103, Red: 135
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeless [grandmaster/Kazaross Met]
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7/1 5/1 |
- 0.725 |
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33.2% 7.0% 0.1% 66.8% 14.3% 0.3% |
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18/8 |
- 0.818 ( -0.093) |
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30.8% 5.7% 0.2% 69.2% 12.4% 0.3% |
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22/18 22/16 |
- 0.825 ( -0.100) |
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30.8% 4.1% 0.1% 69.2% 11.8% 0.2% |
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7/1 7/3 |
- 0.882 ( -0.157) |
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30.8% 6.6% 0.1% 69.2% 15.7% 0.4% |
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22/18 7/1 |
- 0.906 ( -0.181) |
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31.3% 6.5% 0.1% 68.7% 17.9% 0.4% |
I like hopping out with both 22/18 22/16.
The 18-point is the the one I want to keep and hope for a shot.
I'm not sure I want to play deep and make the ace-point in case I get cramped.
-- Michael Depreli
I just make the ace-point and wait for next turn and the hope that White rolls a poor shot this turn and I hit (rare off course).
I think building up my board is the right plan since I don't like the alternatives.
-- Neil Kazaross
Might it be right to get off the 22-point?
Red doesn't have the timing to keep both anchors, and I think he gets more shots from the 18-point.
22/18 with either 22/16 or 7/1 isn't all that risky, since White has an inner-board blot.
I'll try 22/18 7/1, since it keeps pressure on White's blot for one more turn.
-- Dean Gay
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• Match to 11 White (0) vs. Red (0)
Position posted by David Levy [011104]
Pip counts: White: 29, Red: 31
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeful [grandmaster/Jacob & Trice Met]
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6/3 6/4* |
- 0.125 |
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37.7% 0.0% 0.0% 62.3% 0.0% 0.0% |
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6/4* 5/2 |
- 0.187 ( -0.062) |
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35.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.6% 0.0% 0.0% |
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6/4*/1 |
- 0.200 ( -0.075) |
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34.4% 0.0% 0.0% 65.6% 0.0% 0.0% |
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3/off 2/off |
- 0.255 ( -0.130) |
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33.0% 0.0% 0.0% 67.0% 0.0% 0.0% |
• SW4, 3-ply/precise, cube: 3-ply, Full, 1296 games
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6/3 6/4* |
- 0.091 |
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6/4* 5/2 |
- 0.167 ( -0.075) |
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6/4*/1 |
- 0.184 ( -0.093) |
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3/off 2/off |
- 0.239 ( -0.148) |
A lot of good things can happen if Red hits.
If White hits back, Red may hit a second (or third!) checker.
There may be more contact as the checkers race home, which favors Red with his better board.
If White enters without hitting, Red is happy to have gained 4 pips in the race.
And of course Red is very happy the 25% of the time when White dances.
I think hitting is clear, and I would play 6/3 6/4* to clear from the rear.
-- Dean Gay
I hit 6/3 6/4* and don't think that it is close since Red is well behind in the race if he bears off two checkers.
-- Neil Kazaross
3/off 2/off improves Red's distribution greatly for little risk.
It's not even clear to me White would want to hit the blot with an ace, excepting 1-1 or 1-2 of course.
-- Ian Dunstan
First I was trying to look for a decent way to hit, but could not find any, so two off it is!
After that, it is 8 cross-overs against 8, and Red trails a bit in the pip-count accounting for White being on roll, but this is compensated by the fact that White can poorly use small numbers on his first rolls and Red's better distribition.
I think with a 3-1, White would have to hit after 3/off 2/off.
-- Casper van der Tak
I thought it better to leave the blot(s) on higher points so I would be able to shoot at White's board on his better racing numbers.
But as the rollouts show, subsequent safety when White fans is paramount.
-- David Levy
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• Match to 7 White (0) vs. Red (5)
Position posted by Chuck Bower [021604]
Pip counts: White: 125, Red: 76
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeful [grandmaster/Jacob & Trice Met]
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8/3 6/3 |
+1.704 |
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90.7% 51.0% 0.5% 9.3% 0.7% 0.0% |
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8/5* 6/1 |
+1.524 ( -0.180) |
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84.8% 54.7% 0.6% 15.2% 3.3% 0.1% |
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9/4 8/5* |
+1.471 ( -0.233) |
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84.8% 50.4% 0.6% 15.2% 2.2% 0.0% |
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11/6 8/5* |
+1.457 ( -0.247) |
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84.4% 50.0% 0.5% 15.6% 2.0% 0.0% |
I make the 3-point and don't have a second choice.
If White then dances, I can pound away.
If White enters with any non hitting 5, even 5-5 I simply cash.
If White hits with 5-4 or 6-5 I can't (off course) cube at this score so I play on but am a large equity favorite.
The loose-hit on the 5-point looks like a blunder to me, noting White's blotless three-point board and the fact that Red's 5 isn't great.
Three keys to making this obvious to me are:
1) Red needs the 3-point anyhow to have decent gammon chances.
2) Red keeps the "cash in hand if he makes the 3-point and White rolls a non hitting 5.
3) If Red hits loose and gets hit back he has other blots to worry about vs White's three-point board.
-- Neil Kazaross
Gammon value is high for Red.
Undoubled gammon wins the match, where winning 1 point is something like 89% match equity.
Making the 3-point has to be right, since it limits White's entering numbers, puts one of the spares on the 6-point to good use, and leaves Red with three builders aimed at the 5-point.
If White dances, Red can likely pick'n'pass his way to a gammon.
Hitting loose on the 5-point, while tempting, just seems too messy.
Any 5 from the bar leaves Red with a ton of work to do to recover.
If Red makes the 3-point and White enters (making the anchor), Red probably has an efficient cube that White can probably not take.
White's 5-4 and 5-6 probably call for White to hit Red, but with a five-point board to White's three-point board, Red is probably not all that worried yet.
-- Ned Cross
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