• Score: Red (3-away), White (3-away)
   Posted by Robert-Jan Veldhuizen  [052404]

   Red on roll, cube decision

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| '2X2X2X1O2X1X ' '1O '2O|
|2 |
|      |      |
| '2X2O2O2X3O|   |2O '2O ' ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White (Top): 173, Red (Bottom): 125


N/D since many gammons are still won and I think there will be many very interesting chances to cube later.
Perhaps White will break his 6-point due to lack of timing and an inconvenient roll.
-- Neil Kazaross

No double, take; always respect the Minnesota backgame. The only factor arguing for doubling is that White's entry with the last checker from the bar may be very awkward, but if the checker can jump into the outfield before cracking White's chances are good, and this happens often enough.
-- Casper van der Tak

According to the rollout, this is quite an easy take, and no redouble. However, recubing for the match is just a very small error here (in fact, not even 95% statistical sigfnificance for doubling or not).
According to gnubg's cube decision rollout statistics, Red is very often (~80%) going to cube this later anyway and gammons on a 2-cube aren't worth any more than single wins on a 4-cube. The actual number of gammons won on a 2-cube from here, is only about 10%.
Borderline no double, and an easy take with 29%+ winning chances.
-- Robert-Jan Veldhuizen


GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.751  ($ 0.769)
  W: 71.7%  WG: 35.8%    LG: 4.1%
1. No redouble 0.870
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.130)
3. Redouble, take 0.869 (- 0.001)
Proper cube action:   No redouble


Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.799
  W: 73.9%  WG: 26.1%    LG: 4.8%
1. Redouble, take 0.964
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.036)
3. No redouble 0.964 (- 0.000)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take


GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.815  ($ 0.838)
  W: 74.2%  WG: 36.8%    LG: 3.8%
1. Redouble, take 0.970
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.030)
3. No redouble 0.960 (- 0.010)
Proper cube action:   Redouble, take


0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 2592 games, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.532  ($ 0.906)
  W: 70.7%  WG: 46.3%    LG: 4.2%
1. No redouble 0.837
2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.163)
3. Redouble, take 0.825 (- 0.012)
Proper cube action:   No redouble

[Volatility: 0.035]




• Score: Red (3-away), White (3-away)
   Posted by Sam Pottle  [070704]

   Red on roll, cube decision

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|1X '3X2X4X2X1O ' ' ' ' '|
|   |
|      |      |
| ' '1X2X2O4O|   |3O2O '2O '1O|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White (Top): 114, Red (Bottom): 121


Here's a position I had against Frank Talbot last weekend.
-- Sam Pottle

This looks a comfortable take to me, but Red probably has enough to cube at this score. If White rolls 5's it can make his position vulnerable.
-- Dean Gay

White's TP is 30% at this score (he risks 15% to gain 35%) and he has slightly more recube vig than for money in this position type since White can cash at 75% since Red has no recube equity.
For money, any gammon threat would mean that White could have a cash at a lower CPW (cubeless possibilities of winning) but White rarely wins a gammon from here. (Red's take-point at a 4 cube is 25% <-- 3-away, 1-away Cr.: 25%)
So, I think White has enough recube vig to give him a borderline/take drop at a figure nearly as low as 25% CPW.

**White's take-point with 70% recube efficiency**  0.3 - (0.3*0.25*0.7)= 24.8%

How often will Red gammon White? At best Red can win a gammon 4% more often than he loses one from here so with a gammon value of 1/2 with the cube on 2, we can adjust White's TP to 27% cubeless.
White probably wins this position more than 27% cubeless and I honestly think that after most sequences he'll still win at least 27% cubeless.
Therefore, I don't cube here and will wait for him to roll a non 6 and harm his homeboard or wait until I roll a shot like 4-3 that points on the 3-point followed by a bad roll from White.
This should be a market losing sequence but nothing much is really crushing so I strongly think Red should take a roll here.
-- Neil Kazaross

Red is down a few pips in the race, and if White had only two men back (or even if the third man was on the anchor), I wouldn't have much of a threat here.
As it is, White is in imminent danger of crashing, and I have some chances to work over the trailing blot. I probably wouldn't have doubled for money, but felt I had enough at the score.
-- Sam Pottle


GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.461  ($ 0.439)
  W: 69.9%    WG: 8.6%    LG: 4.5%
1. Double, take 0.815
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.185)
3. No double 0.760 (- 0.055)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.532
  W: 73.7%    WG: 8.4%    LG: 2.7%
1. Double, pass 1.000
2. Double, take 1.115 (+0.115)
3. No double 0.896 (- 0.104)
Proper cube action:   Double, pass


GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Eval Cubeless equity:   0.526  ($ 0.498)
  W: 72.3%    WG: 9.5%    LG: 4.3%
1. Double, take 0.991
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.009)
3. No double 0.834 (- 0.157)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


2-ply/50%, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 655 games, Kazaross Met

Cube action equity
Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.485  ($ 469)
  W: 72.0%    WG: 7.3%    LG: 4.0%
1. Double, take 0.951
2. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.049)
3. No double 0.872 (- 0.078)
Proper cube action:   Double, take

[Volatility: 0.050]



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