White gets gammoned too often to make this a money take. If White survives the initial beating he still usually ends up with some timing problems since he'll often have a stripped home board and 7 checkers back and one blocked roll is BAD.
Net result is that White gets gammoned here quite commonly and doesn't win this game often enough to compensate.
-- Neil Kazaross

Is there anyone here besides me who thinks this might even be a take for money? That *is* a four-point board White has, and White has got an advanced anchor too.
Oh yeah, some outfield, and a chance to play instead of try to get in from the bar. I think the 20-point anchor gives White some potentially valuable indirect coverage of the outfield, and that White's chances of getting another anchor are excellent.
White is likely to have a lot of men up soon, but it may take Red awhile to get enough Crisloid to the Zone to seriously scare White. Since Red's gammons become worthless when he throws the cube back, but White's many wins are now juicy indeed.
-- Mary Hickey

A lot of Red's advantage comes from his gammons, which he throws away with a cube turn.
He looks to be able to cube later if he wants to.
-- Dean Gay

It's an easy take; lots of winning chances left (especially) at DMP. However, it's almost a redouble despite the huge gammon chances. The position is pretty good overall, and it seems like there's plenty of sequences where you'd wish you'd be playing GWC for the match, instead of either cashing next turn or playing on for the gammon with perhaps considerable (overall) risk of a turn-around.
Hard to analyse this completely but fortunately, just playing on (no double/take) still seems best.
-- Robert-Jan Veldhuizen

GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met Cube action equity Eval Cubeless equity:   0.692  ($ 0.720)   W: 70.7%  WG: 34.0%    LG: 6.4% 1. Redouble, take 0.831 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.169) 3. No redouble 0.828 (- 0.003) Proper cube action:   Redouble, take Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met Cube action equity Eval Cubeless equity:   0.741   W: 72.9%  WG: 32.4%    LG: 6.9% 1. Redouble, take 0.925 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.075) 3. No redouble 0.902 (- 0.023) Proper cube action:   Redouble, take GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met Cube action equity Eval Cubeless equity:   0.788  ($ 0.813)   W: 74.7%  WG: 35.4%    LG: 6.1% 1. Redouble, take 0.991 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.009) 3. No redouble 0.944 (- 0.047) Proper cube action:   Redouble, take 0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 7776 games, Kazaross Met Cube action equity Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.490  ($ 0.828)   W: 70.7%  WG: 43.2%    LG: 7.6% 1. No redouble 0.842 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.158) 3. Redouble, take 0.826 (- 0.016) Proper cube action:   No redouble [Volatility: 0.146] • Score: Red (3-away), White (3-away)    Posted by Robert-Jan Veldhuizen  [051004]    Red on roll, cube decision Pip counts: White (Top): 171, Red (Bottom): 141 No double because that kills the gammon threat against White. That part seems easy... I'd probably take OTB, but here I note that Red has many pointing numbers so it might be too good. The take/pass decision seems marginal to me, but I still think I'd squeeze out a take. -- Casper van der Tak With White not making a second anchor yet and Red having hit another one of White's checkers, I think this is just plain slightly too good. How much of a take will White have with poor timing if he makes a second anchor here? I don't think it will be all that much of one when Red decides to recube White. I play on here, and expect that my opponent (any one no matter how strong) can likely make a more serious cube error later than I can. Technically slightly too good. However, I take this if doubled since Red seems just short of enough ammunition that I'll usually end up with a second anchor. Many many good opportunities to cube this later, even if White makes a second anchor (noting that Red doesn't have to cube as soon as that happens) . -- Neil Kazaross GNUBG thinks Red improves only a tiny bit after 5-1: 20/15* 8/7; 3-2 B/23. It's still an easy take with White winning more than 29% of games at DMP. Redoubling is still just a small error though according to the rollout. It could be that gnubg recubes too often in the future here, so that the actual equity of "No redouble" is higher and the error of cubing this is larger. I don't think gnubg is too far off though, but maybe redoubling here is actually a 0.06 error or so. An interesting thing here to consider, is this: Suppose you get into a position where you win 75% of games, making it a borderline drop/take and you win a huge 50% gammons overall for a relative gammon rate of 2/3 (~67%). Suppose you NEVER redouble from here, like it's always either too good or no double, because of all these match winning gammons. What's your (EMG) equity then? A redouble now is of course +1 since it's an optional pass. The gammon value on a 2-cube is just 0.5 like for money (if you round -3,-1 to 25% MWC). Anyway, it's still right to hold the cube here according to the 0/2-ply 33% rollout, but far from too good, an easy take and just a small error to redouble. Any decent chance of a pass might make it a correct cash! -- Robert-Jan Veldhuizen GNU_0.14  2-ply/worldclass, cubeful, Kazaross Met Cube action equity Eval Cubeless equity:   0.729  ($ 0.755)   W: 71.4%  WG: 36.2%    LG: 6.2% 1. Redouble, take 0.858 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.142) 3. No redouble 0.856 (- 0.003) Proper cube action:   Redouble, take Snowie_4  3-ply/precise, cubeful, Snowie 2.1 Met Cube action equity Eval Cubeless equity:   0.745   W: 72.8%  WG: 27.2%    LG: 6.8% 1. Redouble, take 0.921 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.079) 3. No redouble 0.914 (- 0.007) Proper cube action:   Redouble, take GNU_0.14  3-ply/grandmaster, cubeful, Kazaross Met Cube action equity Eval Cubeless equity:   0.810  ($ 0.834)   W: 74.7%  WG: 37.6%    LG: 6.2% 1. Redouble, take 0.990 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.010) 3. No redouble 0.950 (- 0.040) Proper cube action:   Redouble, take 0-ply/expert, cube: 2-ply/33%, Full, 2592 games, Kazaross Met Cube action equity Rollout Cubeless equity:   0.518  ($ 864)   W: 70.8%  WG: 45.5%    LG: 6.5% 1. No redouble 0.858 2. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.142) 3. Redouble, take 0.831 (- 0.027) Proper cube action:   No redouble [Volatility: 0.129] Next Hosted by www.Geocities.ws