A Common Sense Future

The last thing I wish to do here is to generate states of micro management. It is quite normal for some perspective or arrangement of ideas to be found to be confusing, redundant or otherwise quite inappropriate for the situation we are having to address at the moment. That said, I wish to logically address the concerns I perceive, as forcefully as I might. So feel free to keep your brakes at hand to use as you see fit.

And if so, is it inherent that man will become, in some measure, a managing factor, a confounding one, or both?

It has been understood for a long long time, that it is normal for glacial and interglacial periods to occur. We may not think that it is proper for us to consider these long term matters, Yet with man's ability to store information that effectively extends his understanding and the impact of its influence, it seems quite appropriate to me. (For Jesus walked this earth about 2000 years ago and his influence is not insignificant.) Ten such time periods, or 20,000 years ago we were in an ice age. And it is quite likely, given the information were have gathered from the geological studies, this inter-glacial (warm - hot) period we are now in will only get warmer. It is quite well known in science that Northern Africa and the Middle East once had much moister climates. And though no one can likely give any assurance of even its existence, it is not impossible that the fabled Island of Atlantis disappeared simply due to the ocean rising as the climate warmed in our present inter-glacial period. My understanding is that the difference in the oceans level between the end of the last glacial period and now, is about 200 feet.

The most similar period (as it relates to the earth's orbital shape and its alignment with the tilt of the earth which causes the effect) was 400,000 years ago, and at that time a third of the ice sheet on the Antarctic Continent slid into the ocean, raising the ocean level about 20 to 30 feet higher than it presently is. {This was gathered from my high school education and reading of the Science News weekly periodical. (Sad to say you have to subscribe to read their archives.)}

So, to me; climate change is inevitable. The big question is how we are going to deal with it. NASA now has a study going on that is working with that types of aerosols that allow droplet to form that make clouds. A lack of aerosols can make clouds that do not cool the earth as much by not reflecting the light as well and not staying aloft (ie. they rain themselves out of existence). Volcanoes are noted for injected in sulfur into the stratosphere. This had generated notable cooling effects as it reflect infrared energy back into space. The down side is that it also damages the ozone layer significantly. Another concern, as I understand it is bromine. It is one of the biggest contributors, and is introduced mostly with the use of methyl bromide, which is use to fumigate goods being transported internationally so bug don't get introduced. I don't know why they don't use a canister of nitrogen, or the likes, gassing off most of the trip. As I understand it, it even help preserve fruits and vegetables longer. My only guess is potential humans sneaking aboard and not making a noticeable response to the activity. And thats only a guess.

Anyway with the sulfur solution generating too negative effects, the only solution I can see is to use something to physically block or reflect heat off the earths surface [on earth or in space], or shining the heat generated by volcanoes and the likes out into space [best done when cloud are not around]. Deserts are noted as getting very cold at night due to this effect. Such processed might also be a way to capture significant amounts of energy. From what I've been able to figure out, a 3/4 in water line flowing at 5 feet per second [as fast as it is considered proper through corners and valves, etc.] if it were converted into steam geothermally, in 1 years time it would produce equivalent to one days worth of oil consumption. To capture that much energy with solar panels one would need to have a square of them over 800 miles to a side. This may not be a completely far comparison, as there would need to be a conversion process for the steam to another form also, such as hydrogen, which typically has about a 30% efficiency. Gasoline engines have about the same efficiency though, so the comparison to oil is probably valid. Finally it might even be a wise thing to address the impact that volcanoes are having to mitigate it anyway. Some are noted as being very explosive in their releases and are still active and near populated areas, like Krakatoa's new 'child' rising from the sea.

In any case, if we don't address global warming, it is likely to make changes we might not necessarily expect. Another old Science News article presented the the theory that it is not unlikely a warmer climate will tend to make bigger storms. (I deduced from the report, the increased water content in the atmosphere allows it to carry the heat and cold farther from its source.) In any case, when the climatologist put data of the much warmer era of the dinosaurs into their computer simulations; the found they had hurricanes with winds pushing the speed of sound, about 600 miles an hours.

To be honest, this is what got me to thinking and reconsider many other matter of present significance.

It helps considerably when one realizes, that in the end, it is the available resources that really determine how "wealthy" we are. When we deplete them over time eventually will have a system in a state of want. Ultimately, our wealth is our future's potential to respond to what ever need arises, rather than what our present situation happens to be. Money in the end is only a management tool to help keep us from being wasteful of resources. Ultimately, renewable resources are the cheaper ones, and so makes the system able to use them of more value also. With renewable resources available, we can more easily decide when we have a problem, if we have the resources there is probably little reason to not try our best to solve it, and mean while enhance the 'economy'. But non-renewable resources always leave the rationing question, 'When down the road they will it be more needed?'

Now that we are using up our on-renewable resources. Ideally, if we look at it from our posterity's perspective, these are emergency materials. Things they will need in dealing with matters that would ruin and confuse them if left to dominance them. Perhaps wars, yet it is possible for it to have many other faces, given our size and nature's changeability.

It is often said we have 250 year of fossil fuels left. Yet if one looks at it from a slightly different perspective one may get a lot more worried about it. If we assume the rest of the world desires our standard of living, and is able to get financial footing to compete for it, as appears to be happening with China. If you take a world population of 10 billion and note that the present developed worlds population is lets say 1 billion. Then that cuts the whole number down to 1/10 of 250 years. So we might well say our posterity may only have 25 years of EMERGENCY ENERGY resources left to be able to address non-sustainable situations forced upon them. And consider how much its would take to regenerate it in some form, that is its real cost to us, whether we pay that much for it or not. As for our local situation, I was recently told that we only have about 20 years of coal left in our area at the rate it is be hauled out, mainly for generating electricity. Ideally this type of hard, low sulfur coal is best used for making steel, which requires a hot carbon source to incorporate carbon with the iron. The same person said he had heard that for the price of making and running a nuclear aircraft carrier. They could make and run a system that would desalinate enough sea water to water the whole state of Nevada. It makes me think with all the fighting in the Middle East over land and water, we may be putting our resources into wrong and unsustainable things.

So you likely are asking, "What do we have to work with, that we haven't tried already?"

Well, many. Primarily, we have taken our dependency on non-renewable resources too lightly, and likely have generated only more troubles for ourselves, besides just the physical ones. Much of the worlds population is not able to sustain our method of living, for one thing, Which has only generated many bad feelings amongst us which can only confound our effectiveness in making necessary change.

But there is hope, and likely more to arrive every day we try to work toward a sustainable system. The weakest link that should be considered is the fact that it will take energy to make the system sustainable. So, in effect, we have something of a state of emergency until we succeed.

Up to this time life forms have been the primary energy converters for us. Making wood, and other hydrocarbons, some stashed away for a million years, that we now have used relatively rapidly up in our modern life style. Life forms also, tend to need a reasonable to large amount of water to work. This puts a big bottle neck in converting the solar energy falling upon the desert (presently going to no real end except making the earth hotter). So I tend to see the desert as the next viable frontier in our endeavors. (And perhaps one that may come to us.) And hopefully a frontier we will respect where life does exist.

It is likely that cities, being the biggest users, will be the ones driving for this direct conversion system; forgoing having to deal with all the controlling genomes that have elvolved their genius up to the present time (Ho! Ho! Ho!). And it may not be all that hard. The past has many cases of solar, wind, wave and tide energy being harnessed. It is likely just a matter of priority. Since metals and plastics can now take corrosive environments, surmounting many of the problems of the past as far as long term cost effectiveness may be much easier. Relatively cheap titanium is on the horizon. And know sources of the ore is in the millions of tons.

Having sufficient energy will allow us to more effectively rework our resources in ways that are safer, and so be a validly benefit to our future. Also preserving all the factors needed for helping , not only ourselves, but those things which makes a better life on this earth, including its various systems and life forms, having been so so long in their refinement of surviving a multitude of ills, will likely be more effective. Hopefully, to the benefit of the rest of this worlds ill life forms and systems.

Likely it will let us more thoroughly manage our water. Purifying it to presently impossible standards for use and re-dispersal. (Presently, even drugs used by humans, for illness; and animals, even for improved growth rates, are being found in potentially significant amounts if our waste and ground waters.)

Recycling many waste materials, presently requires a very large amount of energy to break down into compounds that are safe, or re-usable substances. But that done properly, one will likely have a source of material that is superior to that readily obtainable from our present non-renewable sources. Where a more organic approach be preferred, energy is likely to be needed to supply the requirements for building and maintaining the 'environment' for that to work properly.

It is likely, in trying to harness sustainable forms of energy, we will find ways to enhance our present environment while we are at it. The Mississippi delta is getting too salty from the inflowing tide. Less need for water consumption may help by itself. Though a tidal barrier to reduce the actual inflow might also be modified to include power generation. Capturing solar energy with mirrors may not only make some immediate shade( and perhaps facilitate more air conditioning); and should generation potential ever go to excess, reflecting the excess energy back into space might cool the planets a bit also. In any case, with super conducting materials transporting electricity generated in hot regions of the earth to cooler regions, it may at least get to where it can be of use.

Having a broader focus, yet they have found a way to make carbon composite material cheaply. Which means very light vehicles can be made safely. And run so cheaply that it is even possible for this country to get off foreign oil (an economic imbalance at best), and at least at first, if we should get better insulated buildings, addressing summer heat, which requires a lot of inefficient natural gas power plants to operate, they could be running on that fuel saved, all in less than 40 years or so. A vehicle planned would have power that was effectively more than 400HP in a vehicle today as far as acceleration is concerned. Their book is a free download.

As for the breaking small scale alternatives presently known about beyond the solar panel (which has been improving), there is a new form of the Stirling engine developed by the Las Alamos laboratories. It consists of little more than a bat shaped tube that can convert heat into sound energy. Properly absorbed by transducers it can generate electricity at about 30% efficiency. Much better than solar panels. The semiconductor version of it can stand temperatures up to 600 degrees Fahrenheit indefinitely. To work most effectively though, it need a large temperature difference. So some form of cooling that gives a 500F degree difference can make a 10 centimeter device produce about 500 Watts of power. It is possible though, for it to work at much lower temperatures, even to generating some power from body heat.

Using the same basic 'engine', one can work it in reverse and cause a cooling effect by supplying 'sound' energy to it. Properly designed, it is not impossible to imagine a simple, nearly one part device, that could work as an air conditioner or refrigerator from solar energy.

20) Thermo-acoustic Engine (Release #99-084) -- Engine developed which operates with no moving parts. It operates on the principal of compressed helium gas that is heated and cooled causing an acoustic energy in the form of sound waves. The sound waves drive a piston that delivers energy. The engine, which will be able to be manufactured at low cost, will be able to drive refrigeration units, power auto air conditioning from exhaust, and generate electrical power by way of solar heating of the gas.19 minutes. (6-1-99)

Available on Beta-SP, S-VHS, VHS. For more information, contact John Bass at (505) 665-9204 or [email protected].