10-27-04 - NBA East Preview
10-5-04 - The Fantabulous Houston Astros
10-4-04 - Catching Up
7-6-04 - Some Thoughts
7-5-04 - My Triumphant Return
6-3-04 - Alex's Take on Tubing
5-23-04 - NBA Conference Finals
Archives
I pride myself in always being one to stand up for those who have been unfairly vilified whether it be the poor, the MLS, or Ben Affleck. So let me present you the case of the 2004 U.S. Olympics Men's Basketball Team. Yes, they came out flat and played awful in their first loss against Puerto Rico. After that game, though, they played their asses off in every game. It wasn't the team that took the international opposition for granted...it was the American fans. The players played for free and risked future millions in a tournament they could only lose. If they won, it was expected, but when they lost, every American with even a passing interest in the Olympics would call them over-tatooed chokers. If you want to blame someone for the loss, blame the Ray Allen's and Kevin Garnett's who begged off of the team. Blame USA Basketball for putting together a team that was too young and unsuited for international basketball. But don't blame the Allen Iverson's or the Stephon Marbury's. At least they tried.
1) It's Good to Be in Love- Frou Frou
2) Everything in it's Right Place- Radiohead
3) I Wanna Be Your Dog - The Stooges
4) Your Birthday Present - The Good Life
5) It's A Hit - Rilo Kiley
6) Banquet - Bloc Party
7) Take On Me - Ah Ha
8) If Your Mother Only Knew - Rahzel
9) What Became of the Likely Lads - The Libertines
10) Twilight - Elliot Smith
15) Los Angeles Clippers - This summer, Kobe Bryant was faced with a non-courtroom related choice. He could start alongside Chucky Atkins, Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, and Vlade Divac on a team with no young talent or he could play with Marko Jaric, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, and Chris Kaman with one of the best young point guard prospects in ten years, Shaun Livingston, learning at his side. When you consider the respective ages and potential of his teammates, it is surprising that Kobe didn't sign with the Clippers. Sadly, he didn't, leaving the Clippers with another 25-win season to look forward to.
Best Case Scenario - Brand doesn't commit hari-kiri after playing on all of these crappy teams, Maggette begins to reign in his talent, Livingston eats a lot of Twinkies, and Donald Sterling dies and his trust sells the team. Billy Crystal can dream!
Worst Case Scenario - Donald Sterling doesn't die.
14) Golden State Warriors - This year, I am actively rooting against the Warriors. When your summer consists of firing a talented young coach who has gotten a team with little talent to overachieve for two straight years (Eric Musselman) for a college coach with no pro experience (Mike Montgomery), signing a career back-up center to a $30 million dollar contract (Adonal Foyle) and an old, slow, not- really-a-PG to a $40 million dollar deal (Derek Fisher), and trading a valuable asset (the expiring contract of Nick Van Exel) for another aging back-up center (Dale Davis), then I will have no sympathy when your team sucks
Best Case Scenario - If Jason Richardson somehow becomes a star, Mike Dunleavy plays more like a poor man's Richard Hamilton than a poor man's Wesley Person, and Montgomery isn't overwhelmed by the pro game, this team has an outside chance to approach .500.
Worst Case Scenario - If no one plays over their head, this team will finish in Clippers/Hawks territory.
13) New Orleans Hornets - Pity the fans of New Orleans. Not long ago, they thought they were lucky enough to escape the expansion doldrums. They were blessed with the arrival of a team that was ready-made to win. This team had an experienced coach that always got his team to play hard (Paul Silas), a star SF (Jamal Mashburn),young PG who was on the verge of becoming a superstar (Baron Davis), and a center (Jamaal Magloire) who was about to breakout, and a weak Eastern Conference that seemed primed for the taking. Now, two years later, the dream is in ruins. You replaced the coach, first with the coach who had the worst winning percentage in league history (Tim Floyd) and then with one who is best known for letting his assistant do all of the coaching (Byron Scott, your SF is an injured headcase who is out for the year, your point guard is demanding a trade, and your center is openly pining to play in Canada! What else could go wrong? Oh yeah, I forgot. Your team was just moved to the ridiculously loaded Western Conference Southwest Division (Dallas, Houston, Memphis, San Antonio). No wonder New Orleans always play in a half-empty building.
Best Case Scenario - If Davis and Magloire consistently play like All-Stars and veterans like David Wesley, Darrell Armstrong, and Rodney Rogers have enough in the tank for one more run, this team could be in contention for the eighth playoff spot.
Worst Case Scenario - This team appears destined to implode. If things go south early, they could have the steepest drop in wins in the league.
12) Seattle Supersonics - This team could potentially average 105 points per game. Unfortunately, it looks like they'll probably allow about 130.
Best Case Scenario - If Luke Ridnour and Nick Collison flash the potential to be the best American white-man tandem since Bird and McHale, Rashard Lewis starts to play up to his enormous potential, and someone actually plays defense, this team could be fun to watch.
Worst Case Scenario - On nights when they aren't hitting the three, this team will be beaten by destroyed. I expect there to be about 50 of those nights
11) Portland Trail Blazers - In June 2002, I wrote this about the Blazers drafting Qyntel Woods, "Troubled Juco star drafted by Team Felony? This ought to be fun". Amazingly, he managed to surpass all of my expectations. Not only was he just suspended for violating the NBA's drug policy, but he was also recently arrested for running a dog fighting ring. It has been alleged that other Portland players regularly bet on these fights. So much for the team's new, cleaner image.
Best Case Scenario - Shareef Abdur-Rahim is finally traded to some place where he will actually have a chance to play in the playoffs, Zach Randolph and Darius Miles continue to improves, and Glenn-favorite Theo Ratliff holds down the middle. This team has an outside shot at the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario - All twelve players, two assistant coaches, and a ball boy get arrested in connection with a Thai child sex slave ring, forcing the team to forfeit the season.
10) Los Angeles Lakers - Before I sat down to write this column, I was fully planning on putting the Lakers in the playoffs. On the court, I am a big Kobe Bryant fan...I think he can take over a game better than anyone since Jordan. I think Lamar Odom has turned a corner and is as well- rounded as anyone in the league. But once I really looked at the rosters of the other nine serious playoff contenders, I couldn't help but think that the Lakers were lacking. Any team that has a fifty-one year old chain smoking center (Vlade Divac) starting in a fast-break offense should not be considered a lock for the playoffs.
Best Case Scenario - If Kobe dominates, Odom does all of the Scottie Pippen things, and Caron Butler returns to his rookie year form after an injury plagues second season, this team is capable of making it to the conference semi-finals.
Worst Case Scenario - A Bryant injury immediately makes this the worst team in the West. I can't imagine them falling any lower than the tenth place finish I am projecting, however.
9) Memphis Grizzlies - This team won fifty games last year and finished sixth in the West. So why this low? Memphis stood pat, while some teams below them got better. They could play better basketball than last year and still not make the playoffs.
Best Case Scenario - If Gasol plays for Memphis like he did for Spain in the Olympics, and everyone else happily accepts their role, this team should be in the playoff hunt all season.
Worst Case Scenario - Selfishness begins to creep in. This team has excelled because the players have bought into Hubie Brown's ten man rotation and emphasis on team over south. All it takes is a few players to start thinking about playing for a contract for this team to go South in a hurry.
8) Phoenix Suns - The contract the Suns signed Steve Nash to is absolutely ridiculous...there is no way that he is going to be worth the $12 million they are going to be paying him when his body is breaking down in 2009. Bu that is a problem for another day. For this season, he will be worth every penny, as he leads one of the most exciting teams in the league. Is there a team that has a better forward tandem than Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire? Or a better guard rotation than Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, and Leandro Barbosa? If they can manage to make a move to improve on Jake Voskuhl in the middle, this team could grown into a championship contender in a year or two.
Best Case Scenario - This team was built from the Dallas Mavericks model...score lots of points and worry about defense later. That may serve them well in the regular season, but I can't imagine them winning a playoff series without a better post defender.
Worst Case Scenario - This team may not be ready to win. If the inexperience trumps talent, they could finish closer to the bottom of the conference than to the playoffs.
7) Utah Jazz - Last year, I gleefully predicted that the much hated Jazz would be "gawd awful"...ummm, mulligan? Jerry Sloan had them hungry and playing hard, and this team very nearly made the playoffs. Now their top scorer in back from a season ending injury (Matt Harpring), they signed the best rebounder and post defender on the market (Carlos Boozer), and they have the league's most anonymous superstar (Andrei Kirilenko). This team will be in the playoffs.
Best Case Scenario - Carlos Arroyo does his best John Stockton impersonation, Boozer provides some needed rebounding and toughness, and the rest of the country starts to realize how good Kirilenko is. This team has a shot at the second round, but looks fated for a first round playoff exit.
Worst Case Scenario - Mehmet Okur is not the answer at center. He can score, but he doesn't defend or rebound much. The rest of this team will grind and compete with everyone, but they aren't as talented as the other Western Conference contenders. With a few lapses in intensity, the Jazz won't make the playoffs.
6) Houston Rockets - For the first time since the ill-fated Scottie Pippen season, people in this town are excited about the upcoming Rockets season. Talk radio whipping boys Steve Francis and Kelvin Cato have been traded for one of the few legitimate superstars in the league, Tracy McGrady. As a Rocket fan, I'm overjoyed, but I must caution those fans who are expecting the NBA to have already started engraving our championship trophy. The Rockets are no lock to make the playoffs. Before I get tarred and feathered, let me point out a few things: 1) Our point guard (Charlie Ward) was washed up three years ago and he wasn't that good before he was washed up; 2) The ideal power forward to play next to Yao Ming would be a P.J. Brown-style rebounder/bruiser, not soft post-up scorers like Maurice Taylor or Juwan Howard; and 3) With McGrady driving and Yao drawing double teams, we need role players who can shoot. Other than Jim Jackson, we have none. I have absolutely no idea how this season is going to go
Best Case Scenario - Despite the problems I spelled out above, this team has as much upside as any in the league. This team is built on the Lakers championship model: Surround two of the top ten players in the league with a collection of hard-working role players. If Ward/Tyronn Lue/Bob Sura PG combo doesn't get destroyed every night, if Taylor and Howard work the high-low game with Yao, if McGrady plays with defensive intensity every night, and if Yao takes the leap, this team is a serious championship contender. Not down the road, not next year...now.
Worst Case Scenario - I spelled this out above. If this team plays soft, they could definitely miss the playoffs.
5) Sacramento Kings - This team that has always been celebrated for its harmony is now team discord. It is not a good sign when your alleged franchise player is now your fourth best player and he has yet to realize it. If Chris Webber doesn't realize that he needs to defer more to Mike Bibby and Peja Stojakovic, this could be a long year year in the Kings locker room.
Best Case Scenario - This team still might have the best 1-6 in the league (Bibby, Doug Christie, Stojakovic, Webber, Brad Miller, Bobby Jackson). At this stage, this team's success is dependent on matchups. If they avoid San Antonio in the early rounds, this team has enough left to make the Western Conference Finals.
Worst Case Scenario - When your best enforcer is married to your shooting guard, it doesn't bode well for your team's toughness. This team isn't as deep as it used to. But even if every break goes against them, this team has too much talent to fall below 5th or 6th in the West.
4) Denver Nuggets - Last year, the Nuggets rise to the playoffs caught nearly everyone by surprise. This year they won't sneak up on anyone. The addition of Kenyon Martin's rebounding and defense helps, but his playoff experience might be even more valuable to this collection of young players and career losers.
Best Case Scenario - If Martin and Marcus Camby make any guard think twice about driving into the lane, Carmelo Anthony provides the scoring and moxie, and Andre Miller serves as steadying influence at point guard, this team could win a round of the playoffs. This team has championship potential, just not this season.
Worst Case Scenario - If Anthony finds any reason to pout or injuries hit the frontcourt, this team is no playoff lock. I like their base, but their is not enough scoring or shooting to keep this team afloat if injuries hit or attitudes sour.
3) Minnesota Timberwolves - The Timberwolves went from perennial playoff disappointment to a whisker away from the NBA Finals. If Troy Hudson and Sam Cassell weren't both out with injuries, they very well could be your defending NBA Champions. They will be fired up and ready to go this season and no one is as good as Kevin Garnett, but I still think that they take a step back this season.
Best Case Scenario - In a perfect world, both Cassell and Latrell Sprewell suffer minor injuries early in the year and miss the first half of the season. Both are indispensible to the team's playoff hopes, but the Wolves would be better off if they have relatively fresh legs for the playoffs. It is too much to expect two guards in their mid-thirties to be effective after playing one hundred games. If they do somehow manage to do that, then this team can definitely win the NBA championship.
Worst Case Scenario - Outside of an injury to Garnett, I can't imagine this team falling too far. Put Garnett on the Kansas Jayhawks,and he'd find a way to get them into the playoffs.
2) Dallas Mavericks - Another season, another disappointing playoff loss, and another off-season of upheaval. Sooner or later, Mark Cuban is going to have to pick a core group of players and stick with it. That said, it has hard to argue with the team they have put together. Dirk Nowitzki is one of the best players in the league, Michael Finley is a rock, they have one of the best collections of young talent in the league (Marquis Daniels, Devin Harris, Josh Howard), and for the first time since the days of James Donaldson, the Mavs have a legitimate two-way center (Erick Dampier). Even their potential problems have some upside. Newly assigned back-up point guard Jason Terry has the potential to provide some Nick Van Exel-like instant offense and Jerry Stackhouse should also be fired up to finally be playing on a winning team. If Harris can handle running the offense for 25 minutes a night, this team could be in for a deep playoff run.
Best Case Scenario - The Mavericks are in the unique position as the only team that consistently plays San Antonio well. If this team gels and no one worries about their own numbers, this team could win the West.
Worst Case Scenario - If the perimeter players don't defend and Dampier goes back to his underachieving ways, none of the changes will matter. Dallas could face another first round playoff exit.
1) San Antonio Spurs - If Fisher doesn't hit a miracle shot, the Spurs would likely be the two-time defending NBA Champions. The NBA is all about matchups, and neither Minnesota nor Detroit matches up particularly well with the Spurs. San Antonio primarily stood pat this summer, but did sign Brent Barry. He should improve the team's perimeter shooting, a glaring weakness in the Lakers series. I'd call the Barry signing the most underrated in the off-season, if every other NBA writer hadn't already beaten me to the punch. So I guess it wasn't that underrated after all.
Best Case Scenario - This team plays steady, boring basketball all the way to an NBA Championship.
Worst Case Scenario - Short of Rick Adelman hiring John Muhammad to take a shot at Tim Duncan, I don't see any way that this team doesn't make another deep playoff run.
