impacts:: Economic Impacts

The outbreak or potential outbreak of infectious diseases will continue to prompt governments and health organizations to spend huge amounts of resources and money so as to curb the spread. Money and resources are allocated to prevention, treatment, rehabilitation and long-term care due to the burden of the disease on public and private healthcare sectors as well as on the home and the community. Additionally, direct costs are borne by the healthcare system in the provision of in-patient and out-patient services, medications, laboratory tests, counseling services, etc.

Falling victim to infectious diseases results in a loss of productivity and income. More goods and services could have been produced if the person had not been ill. In other words, human capital is lost due to premature death, illness and disability. Labor shortage and frictional replacement costs will be resulted.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker is used to estimate the annual loss of current and future productivity and costs are calculated by multiplying life years lost by estimated annual GDP loss per death. Besides, social and personal time is lost for those who have given up work in order to care for the person with infectious diseases. From the viewpoint of economics, these are called the opportunity costs of having infectious diseases in a society.

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The decrease in population results in a significant reduction in aggregate demand. Exports will also decrease as demand from neighboring countries whose economies are also affected seriously will decrease. Victim countries' ability to attract foreign investment and skilled labor will also decrease.   

UNDP (2001) estimates that in the 1990s AIDS reduced Africa's per capita annual growth by 0.8%.

Other calculations suggest that the rate of economic growth has declined by 2-4 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of AIDS. The worst affected countries will possibly be pared off per capita growth 1 to 2 percent in the coming years. If this happens, it is predicted that a number of economies will, after 2 decades, be about 20-40 percent smaller than they would have been in the absence of AIDS. According to UNAIDS, for countries with national AIDS prevalence rates of 20 percent, annual GDP growth may fall by an average of 2.6 percent. Additionally, public revenues could drop by an expected 20 percent by 2010 in LDCs where AIDS is a serious matter.

It is predicted that deaths from AIDS are likely to peak in around 2010, thus the peak economic impact will only be felt about 5 years later and the epidemic would pose a major threat to economic growth (CIA, 1999). However, the overall economic impact for developing countries would likely be sustained as there is only a very small proportion of expenditure spent on health care in those countries.
The economic impact of infectious diseases is particularly severe in the agricultural sector where the majority of the population lives in rural areas and earns its living from agriculture. Thus the economic loss incurred by being infected will be enormous as labor is particularly important in agricultural industries.

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If one productive member of the household falls sick, adding to the production necessarily forgone, other members also have to care for the sick person, resulting in double loss.For example, in Burkina Faso, about 20 percent of rural families have reduced the amount of agricultural work done or abandoned their farms because of HIV. In Ethiopia, AIDS- affected households spent 11.6 to 16.4 hours per week working on farm. Compared with an average of 33.6 hours for non-AIDS-affected households (CIA, 1999), definitely AIDS has a detrimental effect on one's productivity. Labor shortage leads to another global issue food shortage. The living standard of people is further lowered.
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