That very same conclusion was also the only substantial finding in the '83 Greenspan report.
Earlier reports published by the government had stated that it wasn't possible to predict trends in Social Security cash outflow. Specifically, in 1981, there was the following quote. It was in the Social Security Bulletin published by the Social Security Administration (National Commission on Social Security Recommendations, May, 1981, Vol. 44, No. 5 page 6):
"Planning for social security would be much easier if the future were clearer. The Commission tried to determine the future costs of both the present program and the program improvements it wished to recommend . . .. No such predictions can be assayed without first making certain assumptions . . .."
But the newsletter I published that exact same month showed that the above statement was wrong.
At left, above is a scanned image from my newsletter. Larger images may be viewed by clicking at left. The graph showing the decline in the birth rate in 1924 is upper left on page 1. It was hand-drawn and a bit crude, as indeed was the whole production. And my writing had a tone, which may have been a bit too bellicose. I've mellowed a little since then.
But, unlike the government's report, my writing made a definite prediction, and that prediction enabled government action. I think I remember reading somewhere that the '83 Greenspan report was the first, or perhaps the only, Social Security report of that kind to have resulted in actual Congressional legislation.
CONTINUE
Top page 1
Bottom page 1
Top page 2
Bottom page 2
